Covid 19 -

[Mr_G6ET]

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Europe is copping it, over 200,000 cases per day. Making the US looking like a picnic. Make the most of his summer everyone! I cannot see international travel opening up apart from the Pacific region. The states need to agree to handing over all international arrivals to the Feds. The Feds need to take this on and have this organised by the military. They need to take over numerous facilities ( hand over hotels or other suitable set ups, set up some as Covid only hospitals) and ensure international arrivals over the next 6 months are squeaky clean. Sadly, can’t see any of them being able to agree on this. As a country we are close to having this manageable right now, but I calling it now, mid autumn early next year will be critical.

You would think by now our states & feds have learned from past mistakes and that we now have a good contact tracing system and stay on top when outbreaks occur, other than that if if the public abide by rules hopefully we in Oz should be ok.

Cheers.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT October 31st, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

10 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.287% while active cases fall to 1,359. NSW & SA recorded 4 cases and WA 1 case.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is down to 2.71 with metro down to 2.2 (1 unknown) and regional at zero with no unknown cases (including today). Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours.

7 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.277% and active cases rise to 75.

The UK had a lower 21,915 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 326 deaths.

Just under 101.5k new cases (a new record high) in the USA yesterday and 987 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.524% and active cases rise to 32.8% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (you can tell it's a weekend)
Global cases pass 46M, the last 1M taking 2 days;
The United Kingdom passes 1M cases;
North America sets a new daily high of 115,272 (30/10);
The USA completes 144M, India 108M, Russia 60M, Turkey 14M, UAE 13M, Saudi Arabia 8M, Colombia 5M and Argentina 3M tests.

Lithuania (1,001)
North Macedonia (1,084)
Azerbaijan (1,095)
Kenya (1,395)
Serbia (1,857) - now 5 days in a row
Greece (2,055) - 22% above the high yesterday
Bosnia (1,953)
Hungary (3,908)
Ukraine (8,752)
Poland (21,897) - now 5 days in a row
Italy (31,758) - now 5 days in a row; and
USA (101,461) - up more than 8k on the high yesterday
... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Strong win for Labor in the Qld election put down to the strong stand on border closure taken by the Palaszczuk govt. Not out of the woods completely; traces of the virus showed up in sewers in Brisbane earlier in the week.

Would be good to understand why people voted the way they did. I don't think change of leadership at the 11th hour helped, nor did constant sniping on the sidelines from colleagues not in the running for seats. I think people in general are just fed up with the negativity.

Originally Posted by tweeked

Europe is copping it, over 200,000 cases per day.

Bojo just announced lock down for England, 1 month. It didn't sound as strict as the one Vic had. This is their 2nd try and I think compliance is going to be a massive issue for them. Need to go hard, go fast and get it right first time.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Europe is copping it, over 200,000 cases per day. Making the US looking like a picnic. Make the most of his summer everyone! I cannot see international travel opening up apart from the Pacific region. The states need to agree to handing over all international arrivals to the Feds. The Feds need to take this on and have this organised by the military. They need to take over numerous facilities ( hand over hotels or other suitable set ups, set up some as Covid only hospitals) and ensure international arrivals over the next 6 months are squeaky clean. Sadly, can’t see any of them being able to agree on this. As a country we are close to having this manageable right now, but I calling it now, mid autumn early next year will be critical.

We are in a fortunate position in our summer to be observing Europe and the rest of the northern hemisphere in their second winter.

I have no doubt that cases will rocket up for an extended period, but what will be interesting will be hospitalisation rates and CMR, lots of well educated people with bets that CMR will be huge and other betting it will be quite minimal, all of our own confirmation bias’s have been well displayed throughout this situation but the data should be fairly conclusive as to what direction Australia and more so states like Vic and Tas in colder climates should take come Winter 2021.

[Citroënbender]

My dearest has just been granted an exemption to quarantine at home instead of a hotel, after returning from Europe.

Only problem is, she returned over a month ago and finished quarantine three weeks tomorrow.

I think the system is overloaded!

[AlanD]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

We are in a fortunate position in our summer to be observing Europe and the rest of the northern hemisphere in their second winter.

I have no doubt that cases will rocket up for an extended period, but what will be interesting will be hospitalisation rates and CMR, lots of well educated people with bets that CMR will be huge and other betting it will be quite minimal, all of our own confirmation bias’s have been well displayed throughout this situation but the data should be fairly conclusive as to what direction Australia and more so states like Vic and Tas in colder climates should take come Winter 2021.

I agree, maybe, recognising that trying to predict the future is a bit of a mug's game - however.....

Using the Johns Hopkins site and looking at the USA cumulative death count, you can see a quite linear graph line from about the beginning of July - and using September to determine a daily figure gives about 750 deaths per day on average.

Yesterday the total deaths slipped through 230,000, which of itself is a tragedy, since many of those fatalities might have been avoided if a more pro-active process had been followed.

By inauguration day, if the trend continues at the same rate, the fatality count will rise to the order of 287,000 deaths.

That said, the current infection rate, that over the last four days has been in the region of 85,000 per day (cf the 60,000 per day previously), if maintained, will tend to drive the daily fatality number upwards after a delay of between 14 and 21 days. It may be that medical facilities reach saturation in the face of these increased infection rates. Because of this it seems likely that the total will be in excess of what I predict.

Irrespective of the outcome on Tuesday, November 3, President Trump will remain in office until January 20, 2021 at least. I can not see any likely alteration of the Administration's policy re Covid 19 post November 3.

We have friends who are American citizens living in Pennsylvania, and for some time now we have been fearful for their welfare. We are grateful that so far they have been in good health and appear to be bearing the stress that they experience with good humour, we hope it continues.

I saw that Ausgovco is now fast tracking the production of vaccines with an expectation that those most at risk (First responders, emergency services personnel, medical staff and the elderly I suppose) can be inoculated before the onset of cooler/colder weather as our winter approaches beginning in March 2021 . Can I guess that some one in authority is taking note of the virus activity in the Northern Hemisphere? Much safer, and less costly, to learn from someone else's experience.

Cheers

[CoupeKing]

[Charliewool]

You voted yet Coupe King?? (Only a day to go mate!)

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT November 1st, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

5 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR steady at 3.287% while active cases fall to 1,352. NSW recorded 4 cases.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is down to 2.43 with metro down to 1.49 (1 unknown) and regional at zero with no unknown cases (including today). Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.276% and active cases rise to 77.

The UK had a higher 22,254 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 162 deaths.

Just over 86k new cases in the USA yesterday and 914 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.511% and active cases rise to 33.0% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (you can tell it's Sunday)
Europe passes 10M cases;
The USA completes 145M, India 109M and Russia 61M tests.

Albania (327)
Azerbaijan (1,175) - now 5 days in a row; and
Russia (18,665)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[T3rminator]

Melbourne's curfew ruled valid by Supreme Court with case dismissed

https://www.9news.com.au/national/me...2-72c01b6957d4

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Haven't watched the vid but I'm going to assume its something to do with conspiracy on covid numbers. Interestingly my mate working in the NHS told me last night they still have not seen any massive increase in hospitilisations. It appears the 1 month lock down invoked in England is based on projections from the current R0. Will be interesting to see the outcome.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Melbourne's curfew ruled valid by Supreme Court with case dismissed

https://www.9news.com.au/national/me...2-72c01b6957d4

Is this a joke? Do people honestly believe a state government would implement a law or otherwise without checking in with their own legal dept....

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Is this a joke? Do people honestly believe a state government would implement a law or otherwise without checking in with their own legal dept....

Yeah, I hope she financed this herself, I hate to think her legals for this come out of the public purse at all, a waste of everyone's time.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT November 2nd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

7 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.286% while active cases fall to 1,339. NSW recorded 7 cases. Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours for the 3rd consecutive day.

4 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.274% and active cases rise to 81.

The UK had a lower 18,550 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 136 deaths.

Just under 76k new cases in the USA yesterday and 403 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.495% and active cases rise to 33.1% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (you can tell it's Sunday)
Global cases pass 47M with the last 1M taking 2 days;
Global deaths reached 1.2M (1/11) with the last 50k taking 8 days;
The USA completes 145M, India 110M, UK 34M, Spain 18M, Italy & France 16M, Belgium 5M and Switzerland 2M tests.

Malta (218)
Norway (704) 41% above the previous high
Jordan (5,877) - 50% above the previous high; and
France (52,518)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[russellw]

In some other points worth watching, several countries had more than 1,000 cases per 100k of population averaged over the last 14 days;

Switzerland 1,075;
Slovenia 1,081;
Luxembourg 1,293;
Czechia 1,504; and
Belgium 1,888.

The global daily case numbers have started to head back down a little although the overall trend is upward.

[roddy1960]

As a non Victorian it wouldn't be right for me to truly appreciate the frustration with the recent lockdowns but now that things are easing and the numbers look pretty good again how do our Victorian AFFers feel about both the protestors actions in the last couple of days and the beach goers etc stuff today (Tuesday) that was shown on the news ..

Especially the protestors , how do you feel about that going on ? Is it justified or not in your more informed opinions having endured the frustration ?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

As a non Victorian it wouldn't be right for me to truly appreciate the frustration with the recent lockdowns but now that things are easing and the numbers look pretty good again how do our Victorian AFFers feel about both the protestors actions in the last couple of days and the beach goers etc stuff today (Tuesday) that was shown on the news ..

Especially the protestors , how do you feel about that going on ? Is it justified or not in your more informed opinions having endured the frustration ?

Didn't hear anything about either as I had been in and out most of the day, but just read the news now.

Protesters - I think the media should stop covering it and cops should only show up if they start to disturb the public. As someone previously said, if the media and cops didn't show up, they would just be walking around in circles screaming at themselves. They are getting their jollies from the publicity and reaction from the police. Stop feeding them. With active numbers now so low, if they don't disturb me I don't really care if they protest.

Beach goers - haven't read anything controversial. What happened?

I was at a very popular lake on the east side last night. Tonnes of people in their teens and 20s gathering. Mask compliance was about 10%. There were lots and lots of small groups, but no big gatherings. Seems reasonable, not fussed about the masks given low numbers and being outdoors. Time for us to reap some of the rewards.

[tweeked]

I was a beach goer today. I knew our "supposed right wing media" would jump on the long lense shots that make it look like everyone was on top of each other. The reality was everyone was spaced well apart - at least 3 -4 metres between each group. Everyone I saw wore masks as they walked to their spot and set up, but from there virtually no one wore their mask while seated. I tried, but in 31 degree heat it was just not doable.

Police went past and said nothing to anyone. I think everyone just understood that sitting in your own group in bright sunshine, 30+ degrees and a pretty strong breeze there was really no risk, so well done on all including the police in this instance. For comparison, you can take your mask off whilst seated in an indoor cafe, closer to other patrons, so it is one of those "doesn't make sense rules" as it stands. Be interesting to see if they change the rules over the next few weeks on where masks are required, I would say indoor in a public space when not eating or drinking and on public transport makes sense.

When I got back I took the dog for a walk. I was in a park and never within 25 meters of another person, yet had to wear a mask in the heat - hopefully we see some common sense on where they are needed soon.

The protesters to me are idiots, I had some sympathy start to grow when the rules were taking too long to change, but not now.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

As a non Victorian it wouldn't be right for me to truly appreciate the frustration with the recent lockdowns but now that things are easing and the numbers look pretty good again how do our Victorian AFFers feel about both the protestors actions in the last couple of days and the beach goers etc stuff today (Tuesday) that was shown on the news ..

Especially the protestors , how do you feel about that going on ? Is it justified or not in your more informed opinions having endured the frustration ?

Seen no problems with the beach goers but the protesters are just the usual rent a crowd rabble that will go to any protest, interestingly these are the types that would frequent the G20 protests to give you an idea who they are.

Cheers

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I was a beach goer today. I knew our "supposed right wing media" would jump on the long lense shots that make it look like everyone was on top of each other. The reality was everyone was spaced well apart - at least 3 -4 metres between each group. Everyone I saw wore masks as they walked to their spot and set up, but from there virtually no one wore their mask while seated. I tried, but in 31 degree heat it was just not doable.

Police went past and said nothing to anyone. I think everyone just understood that sitting in your own group in bright sunshine, 30+ degrees and a pretty strong breeze there was really no risk, so well done on all including the police in this instance. For comparison, you can take your mask off whilst seated in an indoor cafe, closer to other patrons, so it is one of those "doesn't make sense rules" as it stands. Be interesting to see if they change the rules over the next few weeks on where masks are required, I would say indoor in a public space when not eating or drinking and on public transport makes sense.

When I got back I took the dog for a walk. I was in a park and never within 25 meters of another person, yet had to wear a mask in the heat - hopefully we see some common sense on where they are needed soon.

The protesters to me are idiots, I had some sympathy start to grow when the rules were taking too long to change, but not now.

I think there is talk of relaxing the rule with masks outdoors but will remain for use to be worn inside shopping centres & stores.
At work today I still had to wear my mask outdoors which is not very pleasant with the hot weather.

[AlanD]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

As a non Victorian it wouldn't be right for me to truly appreciate the frustration with the recent lockdowns but now that things are easing and the numbers look pretty good again how do our Victorian AFFers feel about both the protestors actions in the last couple of days and the beach goers etc stuff today (Tuesday) that was shown on the news ..

Especially the protestors , how do you feel about that going on ? Is it justified or not in your more informed opinions having endured the frustration ?

We live in Regional Victoria, and, because of that, the effect on us has been quite minimal.

Yes, we would have liked to travel to another state for a break in the middle of winter, but we understand that the restrictions placed upon us were there to protect other citizens, who happen to live in different states. Each year we have a social gathering of friends as time changes occur. Those had to be foregone, but our friends understand the reasons that this was necessary. The same group of people have put their own social gatherings on hold.

As to the protesters:

Methinks that they are confusing a pair of differing things.

Firstly, the country has been (is?) facing a unseen, potentially fatal, virus that propagates through the community by aerosol transmission. That kind of propagation is enhanced by gatherings of many people, especially in confined spaces, or in close proximity in open areas.

Currently the only defense we have is to limit the chance of the virus propagating. This is achieved by limitation of people gathering together. The use of masks provides a greater defence since they minimse propagation.

Secondly, the people have right to protest against things that they find unacceptable, providing the protest is peaceful and courteous. We celebrate that freedom.

However, if exercising that freedom puts others at risk, even if that risk is distant from the activities of the protesters, then the authorities have a need to minimise the risk factor. This is especially true if the protesters take actions that may harm the police officers, or their animals, tasked with controlling the actions of the protesters.

The first of these things is urgent, given that the first responsibility of a government is the protection of its citizens.

The second of them is important. People should have a right to protest against what they see as an infringement on their rights.

But, is it not the case that anyone can protest against an in office government at the next election?

In my view urgent is paramount and therefore takes precedence.

So my advice would be: Do not congregate un-necessarily, and wear a mask if you do.

Cheers

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT November 3rd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

8 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.285% while active cases fall to 1,319. NSW & Queensland recorded 3 cases and SA recorded 2. Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours for the 4th consecutive day.

5 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.270% and active cases fall to 78.

The UK had a higher 20,018 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 397 deaths.

Just over 118.5k new cases in the USA (a new record) yesterday and 965 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.495% and active cases fall to 33.0% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3.1M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (you can tell it's Sunday)
Global deaths are the 2nd highest recorded at 8,092 with the previous high 200 days ago on April 4th;
The USA completes 150M, India 111M, Iran 5M and Lithuania 1M tests.

Albania (381;
Azerbaijan (1,242);
Denmark (1,353);
Serbia (1,878);
Georgia (1,943);
Greece (2,166);
Hungary (3,989);
Bulgaria (4,041) - 40% above the previous high;
Morocco (4,495);
Romania (7,773) - 18% above the previous high;
Ukraine (8,899); and
USA (118,546) - 16.8% above the previous high

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[BLU-220]

Can any you COVID-19 experts tell me am I allowed to take my best mate
down to mornington peninsula to pick up his car as the tuner said it would be ready this Friday ?? finally after having it for 4 mths

why I'm asking as it's definitely more then the 25km raduis but can't he say it's essential [car repairs, at the mechanic's shop]
or do we need to wait until after November the 8th ?? to go and pick it up his car

even though the guy will txt him to tell my mate that the car is ready to be pick up or do we need more proof as in a letter from the shop ??



Cheers Dean

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by BLU-220

Can any you COVID-19 experts tell me am I allowed to take my best mate
down to mornington peninsula to pick up his car as the tuner said it would be ready this Friday ?? finally after having it for 4 mths

why I'm asking as it's definitely more then the 25km raduis but can't he say it's essential [car repairs, at the mechanic's shop]
or do we need to wait until after November the 8th ?? to go and pick it up his car

even though the guy will txt him to tell my mate that the car is ready to be pick up or do we need more proof as in a letter from the shop ??

Cheers Dean

I recently spoke to my tuner about this, who is also situated outside the 25km zone. They said I can travel over 25km if they give me a letter. The justification is that the car can only be tuned / retuned by them, so it is an "essential" service to get the car operating properly and safely. So your mate will need a letter from the tuning shop.

[BLU-220]

Thanks T3rminator

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT November 3rd, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

10 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.284% while active cases remain at 1,319. NSW recorded 9, Queensland 2 cases and SA / WA, 1 each. Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours for the 5th consecutive day.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.268% and active cases fall to 73.

The UK had a higher 25,177 new cases yesterday - the 2nd highest recorded. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 492 deaths.

Just under 96k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,188 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.462% and active cases rise to 33.2% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3.1M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 48M with the last 1M in 2 days;
Global deaths set a new record high of 9,054, the previous on April 4th;
North America sets a new daily high with 118,248 cases;
The USA completes 151M, India 112M, Russia 62M and Italy 16M tests.

Latvia (313);
Albania (396);
Montenegro (874) - 22% above the previous high;
North Macedonia (1,189);
Kenya 1,494;
Serbia (2,412) - 28% above the high yesterday;
Georgia (2,295);
Greece (2,646) - 22% above the high yesterday;
Hungary (4,219);
Bulgaria (4,054);
Morocco (5,745) - 28% above the high yesterday;
Austria (6,901) - 23% above the previous high;
Portugal (7,464) - 61% above the previous high;
Romania (8,651) - 12% above the high yesterday;
Ukraine (9,524);
Switzerland (10,073);
Czechia (15,731)
Russia 19,768;
Germany (20,228); and
Poland (24,692)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

[Tickford.]

Well done Victoria, that's 6 days in a row of 0 cases as of today (05/11/2020). 13,479 tests conducted since yesterday.

NSW is to open the border to VIC at 12:01am on Monday 23 November. I think Daniel Andrews should maybe shut the border to NSW at 11:59 on Sunday 22 November. A couple of minutes before Berejiklian opens the border.

Last thing VIC needs is people from the COVID state of NSW coming to VIC and undoing all our hard work!

[T3rminator]

Ummm what's with the "massage" parlours with neon open signs flashing around Melbourne?

I've missed the last few days briefing. Have we fully opened?

[Citroënbender]

They’re just preparing for the happy ending of restrictions.