Russia v Ukraine

[T3rminator]

Interesting take on the lend lease.

America’s massive ‘lend-lease’ aid plan for Ukraine recalls similar help in Britain’s ‘darkest hour’
https://theconversation.com/americas...st-hour-182889

The FSA puts strict human rights conditions on the provision of both non-military and military aid. The AECA requires certification by countries receiving arms or military technology that the weapons are used either for internal security or self-defence and will not be used to escalate a conflict. These requirements create bureaucratic obstacles to each arms shipment and, given the ambiguous phrasing of the law and the fluid nature of the conflict in Ukraine, potentially put US manufacturers at risk of prosecution.

The solution by the Biden administration to introduce a new lend-lease agreement is a very imaginative way to get around some of these bureaucratic and procedural issues which could otherwise risk significant delays to the delivery of this aid. The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act specifies that arms deliveries to Ukraine are exempt from various conditions laid down by the two acts relating to human rights conditions and the requirement to pay for weapons and other assistance provided.

The basic principle of lend-lease is that arms supplies are not sold or donated, but rather provided on the basis that they will eventually be returned to the United States. But in this case, the US government is bypassing the usual regulations governing such transactions by accepting that there is no guarantee that any of the equipment will actually be returned or paid for after the end of the conflict.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I doubt anyone here really knows what was happening in the background that may or may not have contributed to starting the war. We can only speculate.

We know the US has wanted a regime change in Russia for a long long time. And looking at the amount of money and weapons being thrown into Ukraine at the moment, its hard to believe Ukraine is not being used in some way as a proxy. Call it proxy, bait, sacrificial lamb, whatever, Ukraine seems to be a means to an end between "the west" and the current Russian regime.

Interesting that a handful of countries are seemingly taking the spoils of war without having to fire a single shot.

The deciding factor for me is the wishes of the Ukrainian people. It's hard to judge the support for Zelensky but there don't seem to be any mass protests against the war. When their president begs the west for weapons there are no demonstrations at the airport in poland insisting the munitions be sent back.

Not saying that the US isn't delighted by this opportunity. And I'm sceptical of the motives of politicians; if there were no votes in it would Biden have been as quick to send aid? Not sure there are any "spoils of war" to be had out of this either; the bill for the taxpayers of the NATO countries will be huge. The cost to poorer countries of the increases in food and oil prices will be that thousands will die.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The deciding factor for me is the wishes of the Ukrainian people. It's hard to judge the support for Zelensky but there don't seem to be any mass protests against the war. When their president begs the west for weapons there are no demonstrations at the airport in poland insisting the munitions be sent back.

Would think showing support for Russia in Europe is quite dangerous at the moment. Could get you cancelled, permanently, by so called "sabotage squads". Interesting to also see the likes of Reuters editing out civilian testimonies that are seen to be pro Russian, citing "inconsistencies".

Read that Zelenskyy had an approval rating of 20% prior to the war. His popularity took a nose dive after being named in the Pandora Papers. But has sky rocketed back to +70% since the invasion.

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Not sure there are any "spoils of war" to be had out of this either; the bill for the taxpayers of the NATO countries will be huge.

Someone will benefit from all those hundred million dollar yachts and billions in frozen assets. I think the British have said they don't intend to ever release the assets back, even if the war ends. We'll see.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by oldel

Do you even know what a proxy war is?
For this to be a proxy war either USA backed Ukraine to invade Russia, or Russia is a puppet of the USA and started this war because USA said so.

Neither happened, so you heard the term proxy war and thought it applied when it's a stupid thing to say.

Is this having the same affect as a proxy war? Maybe. But it isn't one and Russia is not a proxy of the USA and Ukraine didn't invade Russia because the USA want that.

A proxy war is when one party sponsors another to start a war and funds it. USA didn't start this war, they warned Russia not to start it. It's not a proxy war, it's not USA starting it.

They have the appetite to screw Russia up though, purely because Russia started it. Because of that it is similar, but it hasn't always been one, because they didn't start it!

Do you know what was the top 3 nuclear powers in 1992?
It featured Ukraine because that's where a lot of soviet nuclear power was. Both USA and Russia had a treaty to protect the sovereign state of Ukraine if they handed all nukes back to Russia. USA is holding to that agreement and Russia is breaking it by invading for oil, gas, other resources and med naval projection.

Please don't open mouth before engaging brain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_war

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The deciding factor for me is the wishes of the Ukrainian people. It's hard to judge the support for Zelensky but there don't seem to be any mass protests against the war. When their president begs the west for weapons there are no demonstrations at the airport in poland insisting the munitions be sent back.

Not saying that the US isn't delighted by this opportunity. And I'm sceptical of the motives of politicians; if there were no votes in it would Biden have been as quick to send aid? Not sure there are any "spoils of war" to be had out of this either; the bill for the taxpayers of the NATO countries will be huge. The cost to poorer countries of the increases in food and oil prices will be that thousands will die.

Bollocks, any of this rubbish about this being about US or Ukrainian politics is ludicrous.

This is all about the “Wack job” running Russia, trying to recreate the Soviet unions’ Sphere of influence, period.

Most of the stupid young Russians that are being fed to Ukrainians as cannon fodder, come from “poor villages” that we don’t see here. Why on earth do you think they loot Washing machines, toilets, and childrens toys ?

Those uneducated young fools don’t have morals, this is why the west has the moral high ground in this conflict, and this is why more countries want to join NATO.

No decent European country wants anything to do with Russia.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by zilo

Please don't open mouth before engaging brain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_war

So Russia declared a proxy "special operation" on the US then?

There would be no proxy war with the US or anyone in the west if Russia did not invade Ukraine.

I don't get why people think Putin had no choice but to invade - the bull**** excuses like "denazification" (then Russia then sends in the fascist Wagner group); the keeping a buffer between Russia and NATO (that worked out well with Sweden and Finland now applying to join); the supposed liberation of a persecuted population who are fighting against Russia's occupation with more vigour and determination than almost everyone expected (definitely more than Russia expected, and most of the west expected too). No, it's all about a pathetic man's ego, Ukraine's natural resources and warm water ports.

[PooDog]

If both sides were WACK JOBS at least it's harmless and they might be too busy to shoot each other

[Citroënbender]

There’s probably relevance in the Fish Slapping Dance, if one looks at it again…

[xkxlxm]

"the west has the moral high ground in this conflict"

'The west' has no 'high moral ground' in this conflict or just about anywhere else.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Mulva

So Russia declared a proxy "special operation" on the US then?

There would be no proxy war with the US or anyone in the west if Russia did not invade Ukraine.

I don't get why people think Putin had no choice but to invade - the bull**** excuses like "denazification" (then Russia then sends in the fascist Wagner group); the keeping a buffer between Russia and NATO (that worked out well with Sweden and Finland now applying to join); the supposed liberation of a persecuted population who are fighting against Russia's occupation with more vigour and determination than almost everyone expected (definitely more than Russia expected, and most of the west expected too). No, it's all about a pathetic man's ego, Ukraine's natural resources and warm water ports.

Just put “Aussie Cossack” on ignore 👍

[T3rminator]

Ehhhhh ok. Whoever thought this was a good idea. WTF is a hedgehog war game?

Finnish and Swedish troops will join US and Ukrainian forces in ‘Hedgehog’ war games next week in Estonia

https://thefrontierpost.com/finnish-...ek-in-estonia/

Finnish and Swedish troops are joining US and Ukrainian forces in NATO “Hedgehog” war games next week in Estonia, whose border with Russia is just 150 kilometers from Saint Petersburg. The exercise, involving 15,000 troops, will simulate war between NATO and Russia in Estonia.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Ehhhhh ok. Whoever thought this was a good idea. WTF is a hedgehog war game?

Finnish and Swedish troops will join US and Ukrainian forces in ‘Hedgehog’ war games next week in Estonia

https://thefrontierpost.com/finnish-...ek-in-estonia/

Might be trying to cause the Russians a little anxiety, leading them to pull troops away from Ukraine to protect their own border. Or NATO might be trying to show them that they are ready to step into this war.

[FairmontGS]

Anti-Western rhetoric is so meh...

[T3rminator]

A score for Zilo...

From the former head of NATO’s armed forces, Gen. Philip Breedlove....

Philip Breedlove
I think we are in a proxy war with Russia. We are using the Ukrainians as our proxy forces.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/o...owTranscript=1

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

A score for Zilo...

From the former head of NATO’s armed forces, Gen. Philip Breedlove....



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/o...owTranscript=1

If you going to put up a link make sure we all can read it without having to subscribe to it.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Itsme

If you going to put up a link make sure we all can read it without having to subscribe to it.

You can if you haven't used up your NYT quota Worked for me and I'm not subscribed.

Otherwise the audio still works, but you'll have to sit through the whole thing .

Edit: Actually just checked, you can still scroll through the transcript with the subscription pop up in place. Enjoy.

A bit before and after...

Philip Breedlove
Well, I think history will judge it all, and we’ll probably have better hindsight in five years or so. But the fact of the matter is, I think it’s a mixed bag. There are hardline Russian commanders and what they call the contract troops that are a longtime part of the Russian military. I don’t think they were fooled in what was going on. I think they followed orders and they went in there, and they probably expected to have an easier time of it than they did.

There are absolutely portions of this Russian army that did not know they were going to war. And that’s why you have seen — and there is so much reporting that it’s hard to believe that there’s not some truth there, of all of the defections and all of the business that was going on with this force, and still goes on with this force when they won’t fight and so forth. The real, I think, interesting question here is where and how deep this belief was at the top that this was going to happen quick, easy and we’re going to be welcomed with roses.

Because that’s the kind of war they planned. Here is something that I will not be the source on. I am reporting other people’s reporting, but it appears that there was several units in this invasion force that had their dress uniforms with them, because they were going to participate in the parade that would be happening shortly after the invasion. And so I think that there is going to be some great papers written after this war.

In war, there’s a lot of things you want to do. And in planning war, there’s a lot of things you want to do. The list is — there’s a list. But a couple of those things are, one, deter your enemy and not allow yourself to be deterred. Two is seize the initiative, and don’t let the enemy take the initiative away from you. We are zero for two in that respect.

Jane Coaston
But we’re not at war with Russia. Is it worth saying that?

Philip Breedlove
I think we are in a proxy war with Russia. We are using the Ukrainians as our proxy forces.

Jane Coaston
Can a proxy war stay a proxy war?

Philip Breedlove
I assume that that’s our current plan. So I think the answer is yes. Now, if the atrocities continue to be unveiled, at what point do the conditions change? The NAC, the North Atlantic Council, and NATO had an emergency meeting this morning. My guess is that was all about what we saw in Irpin and Bucha. And somebody’s got to be held responsible for that. You asked me a question, can this go on? I think it can, if the nations continue to choose to allow Russia to do as it wills on the battlefield without consequence. I guess it can go on.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Might be trying to cause the Russians a little anxiety, leading them to pull troops away from Ukraine to protect their own border. Or NATO might be trying to show them that they are ready to step into this war.

If it was the “Washing Machine” war games, the entire Russian military would be lining up at the Estonian border to get one.

[Citroënbender]

They’d go there for the donuts, if they knew. Probably fill up their washing machines with them.

And they’d keep getting blown up by booby-trapped robotic donut carts.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

They’d go there for the donuts, if they knew. Probably fill up their washing machines with them.

And they’d keep getting blown up by booby-trapped robotic donut carts.

They may not get there with those rubbish Chinese tyres though, those “poor villagers” trying to be soldiers, whilst their leaders roll around in the billions of dollars they have hilariously looted from the military budget.

[FairmontGS]

This all seems to be going to plan for putinland...?

Finland announces ‘historic’ NATO bid, and Sweden follows

The Finnish government has officially announced its intention to join NATO, and Sweden’s ruling party followed shortly after in a twin development that paves the way for a possible joint application to the military alliance.

Less than three months after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the announcements on Sunday first by Finland and then Sweden were a stunning reversal of their traditional and long-standing policies of military non-alignment.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...cted-to-follow

[FairmontGS]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...around-kharkiv

[danzvtil]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...around-kharkiv

image

image

“Liquidated personnel” jeezus, that’s nasty.

[Citroënbender]

That’s a lot of sad parents, spouses and siblings. Lives lost for the sake of vanity and delusion; doubly sad.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That’s a lot of sad parents, spouses and siblings. Lives lost for the sake of vanity and delusion; doubly sad.

Yeah, but it's probably fake news so no-one actually hurt...

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yeah, but it's probably fake news so no-one actually hurt...

Not fake but a bit exaggerated maybe. The experts say that on average, for every soldier killed three are wounded. So if 26,000 are killed then 78,000 are wounded; total 104,000. Russia only sent 127 battalions to start with which is 127,000. Again the experts say that once a force has lost 10% of its strength it starts to become ineffective.

No matter what the real figure is it is still a monumental waste of life. Have a look at some of the Ukraine vids of interviews with prisoners of war; reminded me of the Forest Gump movie. The Russian conscripts had no idea of where they were and what they were supposed to do.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yeah,but it's probably fake news so no-one actually hurt...

Yeah I heard that too, the “Jack in the box” T-72 & T-90 ( the T-90 is just a rebrand of the T-72 after Iraq) turret, is part of the plan for Russian tankers to enjoy the sunshine, and no Russian tanks have been “hit” by inferior Ukrainian/ NATO weapons.

Russia is winning “big time”.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

A score for Zilo...

From the former head of NATO’s armed forces, Gen. Philip Breedlove....



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/o...owTranscript=1

The halfwit who flapped his gums uncontrollably at me has crawled into the hole he dug with his bleeding gums no doubt....

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That’s a lot of sad parents, spouses and siblings. Lives lost for the sake of vanity and delusion; doubly sad.

Yes, that typifies rampant delusional nationalism in a nutshell.
Can be seen flying on any street corner or freeway overpass in the US.

[PhilT2]

There's plenty of stories available on how the Russian soldiers are looting Ukrainian homes and trying to send the stolen items back home. That didn't work out too well as apparently the postal workers stole the packages. But that may have just been the conscripts; the higher ranks were into looting on a grand scale. The John Deere dealership at Mariupol lost $US5mil worth of combine harvesters. Being hi-tech gear with GPS it was able to be tracked to where it all ended up hundreds of miles away in Chechnya. This gear has immobilisers too but maybe they can disable that.

Egypt has turned away two Russian freighters because it was believed the grain they were carrying was stolen from Ukraine. The estimates are probably exaggerated but Ukrainian authorities are claiming that approx 400,000 tons have been stolen...so far. This has robbed Ukraine of badly needed export income and what they need for their own consumption. Some of what was taken was also the seed needed to plant this years' crop. Hard not to see this as an attempt to totally destroy the economy of the nation and cause mass starvation. At a stretch it could be called an attempt at genocide.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-Ukraine.html

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

There's plenty of stories available on how the Russian soldiers are looting Ukrainian homes and trying to send the stolen items back home. That didn't work out too well as apparently the postal workers stole the packages. But that may have just been the conscripts; the higher ranks were into looting on a grand scale. The John Deere dealership at Mariupol lost $US5mil worth of combine harvesters. Being hi-tech gear with GPS it was able to be tracked to where it all ended up hundreds of miles away in Chechnya. This gear has immobilisers too but maybe they can disable that.

Egypt has turned away two Russian freighters because it was believed the grain they were carrying was stolen from Ukraine. The estimates are probably exaggerated but Ukrainian authorities are claiming that approx 400,000 tons have been stolen...so far. This has robbed Ukraine of badly needed export income and what they need for their own consumption. Some of what was taken was also the seed needed to plant this years' crop. Hard not to see this as an attempt to totally destroy the economy of the nation and cause mass starvation. At a stretch it could be called an attempt at genocide.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-Ukraine.html

A couple of months back, I heard on ABC radio quoting a chinese official saying that they had close to 400kg of grain per person, in storage. Can't remember in what context the statement was made, but did think it was a rather odd statement to make at the time, but now.......hmmmmmm. India has also banned all their wheat exports.

A good info graphic on where Ukraine and Russia wheat exports usually go...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ly-interactive