VFACTS Oct 2018

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

This is the new Ford Focus that will be arriving in the next month or so.
The proportions are a lot different to the current car and more like the Mazda 3.

image

We also have Endura and a new Escape is arriving next year.

Now that looks nice!

[minheim]

I understand that Ford will also be bringing in the
Focus Activ which should excite some interest as it is essentially a Subaru XV type competitor. All in all I think Ford are well placed with product they just need s new advertising company to spark broad interest.

[kevino]

I don't think Focus active has been confirmed. But as a long time Focus and Fiesta buyer had 5 since 2004 I would love to see it. At 63 getting in and out of my LZ is becoming harder with body inflexibility due to age.


Heres another idea. Ford needs more volume relying on Ranger and Mustang is just risky.

Bring in a made in China Focus Ambiente base model and compete on price with the Japs and Koreans and build some volume. Fords policy of moving prices upwards is risky, the current house price depreciation here will see folks wanting more value ie lower prices.


Having exited small cars by axing Fiesta Ford have no low priced car and no entry level cars well a Chinese made Focus Ambiente (at much lower cost) would give Ford a low price entry level car and an opportunity to build volume. If Ford don't have an entry level car their customer median age will just get older and their customer base will decrease.

[hackney]

[QUOTE=kevino;6214748]I don't think Focus active has been confirmed. But as a long time Focus and Fiesta buyer had 5 since 2004 I would love to see it. At 63 getting in and out of my LZ is becoming harder with body inflexibility due to age.

That is why we bought a SUV,so much better on ingress & egress.Better on the back as well.Cheers

[bathurst77]

Originally Posted by jpd80

This is the new Ford Focus that will be arriving in the next month or so.
The proportions are a lot different to the current car and more like the Mazda 3.

image

We also have Endura and a new Escape is arriving next year.

Funny looking thing...seems to have a huge nose. The 3 does too

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

Funny looking thing...seems to have a huge nose. The 3 does too

At certain angles like that 3/4 view, the overhang is accentuated by the swept around front styling.
Seriously, if new Focus becomes as popular as Mazda 3, it will all be worth it.....
and I hope Ford has the good sense to bring the Focus Active as well..

[Big_Daz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

This is the new Ford Focus that will be arriving in the next month or so.
The proportions are a lot different to the current car and more like the Mazda 3.

image

We also have Endura and a new Escape is arriving next year.

New Focus looks great, hopefully Ford markets them and they sell.. Are they going to be bringing over the full model range on these ones (Trend, Titanium, etc) or going to be more like the Fiesta (ST only)..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Big_Daz

New Focus looks great, hopefully Ford markets them and they sell.. Are they going to be bringing over the full model range on these ones (Trend, Titanium, etc) or going to be more like the Fiesta (ST only)..

New Focus is here this month, this from Caradvice in September:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/688993/...ive-australia/
According to a dealer bulletin distributed this month, the Focus Active will be listed above the Trend in the Focus line-up but below the Titanium, suggesting it'll be priced similarly to the ST Line ($28,990 hatch, $30,990 wagon). It rides 30mm higher than standard, but there's no word on all-wheel drive at this point.

If true, then perhaps the crossover, Focus Active might be something that arrives later in 2019....

So Focus is 5-door hatch and Stationwagon in Trend, ST Line, Active, and Titanium

[jpd80]

Just a quick comparo Ford versus Holden sales for October...

CARS
No Vehicle......000.....Spark..................5
Fiesta...............4.....Barina...............37 7
Focus............104.....Astra..............1,103
Mondeo..........193....No Vehicle..........000
Falcon..............1.....Commodore........663
Mustang.........569....No Vehicle..........000
TOTAL...........871....TOTAL.............2,148.... Holden ahead 1,277 sales mostly Barna/Astra.

SUVs
EcoSport........101.....Trax.................449
Escape...........293.....Equinox............300
No Vehicle......000....Captiva.............329
Everest..........369....Trailblazer..........249
No Vehicle......000....Acadia...............203
TOTAL...........763....TOTAL.............1,530.... Holden ahead 767 sales mostly Barina, Captiva and Acadia.

Commercials
Ranger 4x2......417....Colorado 4x2......196
Ranger 4x4....3094....Colorado 4x4....1,382
Transit............217....No Vehicle...........000
TOTAL..........3,728....TOTAL..............1,578.. ..Holden behind 2,150 sales mostly 4x4 but also 4x2 and Van

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Just a quick comparo Ford versus Holden sales for October...

CARS
No Vehicle......000.....Spark..................5
Fiesta...............4.....Barina...............37 7
Focus............104.....Astra..............1,103
Mondeo..........193....No Vehicle..........000
Falcon..............1.....Commodore........663
Mustang.........569....No Vehicle..........000
TOTAL...........871....TOTAL.............2,148.... Holden ahead 1,277 sales mostly Barina/Astra.

SUVs
EcoSport........101.....Trax.................449
Escape...........293.....Equinox............300
No Vehicle......000....Captiva.............329
Everest..........369....Trailblazer..........249
No Vehicle......000....Acadia...............203
TOTAL...........763....TOTAL.............1,530.... Holden ahead 767 sales mostly Trax, Captiva and Acadia.

Commercials
Ranger 4x2......417....Colorado 4x2......196
Ranger 4x4....3094....Colorado 4x4....1,382
Transit............217....No Vehicle...........000
TOTAL..........3,728....TOTAL..............1,578.. ..Holden behind 2,150 sales mostly 4x4 but also 4x2 and Van

106 units across the board, Nothing in it really, although the bean counters etc. looking for any edge will tell us its about profit margins which never seems to be portrayed in any Vfacts report i've ever seen...

If you go one step further and look at only products which go head to head its Ford by 326 units in a fair comparison with Falcon and Commodore removed as the Falcon shouldnt really be on the list anymore.

(Oh, i corrected your SUV segment and replaced Barina with Trax)

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

106 units across the board, Nothing in it really, although the bean counters etc. looking for any edge will tell us its about profit margins which never seems to be portrayed in any Vfacts report i've ever seen...

If you go one step further and look at only products which go head to head its Ford by 326 units in a fair comparison with Falcon and Commodore removed as the Falcon shouldnt really be on the list anymore.

(Oh, i corrected your SUV segment and replaced Barina with Trax)

First off thanks for picking up that typo....

I broke up the sales into cars, SUVs and Commercials so we could see strengths and weaknesses.

I'll leave you with this thought,
If Holden was leading Ford by 106 sales, they would be banging on about superior product mix
and more valuable sales but since Ford has the lead, well we have to down play all of that.

Apparently, Holden having 1,277 extra car sales and 767 more SUVs than Ford is somehow
more important than an extra 2,150 Rangers and Transits....Discounts be damned.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

First off thanks for picking up that typo....

I broke up the sales into cars, SUVs and Commercials so we could see strengths and weaknesses.

I'll leave you with this thought,
If Holden was leading Ford by 106 sales, they would be banging on about superior product mix
and more valuable sales but since Ford has the lead, well we have to down play all of that.

Apparently, Holden having 1,277 extra car sales and 767 more SUVs than Ford is somehow
more important than an extra 2,150 Rangers and Transits....Discounts be damned.

When you're quoting Vfacts figures, they dont rank manufacturers by profit/loss statements so i dont think it matters what margins are in any particular segment.
At dealer level they make more money out of service than sales so having more vehicles running around racking up k's has ongoing value.

All you can do is look at the numbers and conceed that unless you're Toyota you're really only fighting for scraps and your standing on the charts can fluctuate depending on product cycle and promotional incentives.

For some reason people are fixated on the old Ford v Holden thing which should have been buried in history along with local manufacturing, the real enemy as i've been saying for quite sometime now is from the other bit players who are making inroads every month as we saw in September where Ford was relegated to 6th.

[jpd80]

Take your comments regarding Holden being adrift of Ford by a mere 106 sales,
there's not really that much between each of the sales positions 2 to 10.
point is that Holden can't afford to end its discounting or it will slide off the top ten.

Ranking Brand Sales
1 Toyota 17,811
2 Mazda 8,172 ............(>9,000 behind Toyota)
3 Hyundai 7,432..........(740 behind Mazda)
4 Mitsubishi 6,217.......(1,215 behind Hyundai)
5 Ford 5,362...............(855 behind Mitsubishi)
6 Holden 5,256............(106 behind Ford)
7 Volkswagen 4,835......(421 behind Holden)
8 Kia 4,583..................(252 Behind VW)
9 Subaru 4,370.............(213 behind Kia)
10 Nissan 4,241............(129 behind Subaru)

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Take your comments regarding Holden being adrift of Ford by a mere 106 sales,
there's not really that much between each of the sales positions 2 to 10.
point is that Holden can't afford to end its discounting or it will slide off the top ten.

Ranking Brand Sales
1 Toyota 17,811
2 Mazda 8,172 ............(>9,000 behind Toyota)
3 Hyundai 7,432..........(740 behind Mazda)
4 Mitsubishi 6,217.......(1,215 behind Hyundai)
5 Ford 5,362...............(855 behind Mitsubishi)
6 Holden 5,256............(106 behind Ford)
7 Volkswagen 4,835......(421 behind Holden)
8 Kia 4,583..................(252 Behind VW)
9 Subaru 4,370.............(213 behind Kia)
10 Nissan 4,241............(129 behind Subaru)

Totally agreed which is why i said ladder position depends largely on product cycle and incentive as the market for everyone below Toyota is volatile.
A new model here, a runout deal there all effect overall placement for bit players which is why claiming a victory over Holden who were 9th a month ago is only ever short lived.
On the subject of discounting, what is discounting really?
It is fair to say that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, if i price something at $40k and it doesnt sell and i drop it to $35k and it walks off the lot am i discounting it heavily or did i over value it to begin with and have now placed it competitively.
I dont know of too many people who market a new product below what they think it will sell at, so over estimating its worth is not uncommon or unique to Holden.
Only the people behind the scenes know what the true costs to build, import and market a particular vehicle and every vehicle is different.

I would rather gauge something with hindsight than pretend to know the inner workings of a multi national company and sprout negative spin to suit an agenda, especially when its based on nothing more than which colour or badge i grew up preferring.
Its fairly telling...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I would rather gauge something with hindsight than pretend to know the inner workings of a multi national company and sprout negative spin to suit an agenda, especially when its based on nothing more than which colour or badge i grew up preferring.
Its fairly telling.

I'm not an insider but i have been talking with people on the Holden side with links to all kinds of info
This is not about being Holden or Ford, their people are very worried about the future too.

I'll PM you some of what's been shared with me..

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I'm not an insider but i have been talking with people on the Holden side with links to all kinds of info
This is not about being Holden or Ford, their people are very worried about the future too.

I'll PM you some of what's been shared with me..

Why didnt you just post it up so everyone can see that it basically says nothing that we dont already know or expect.

Acadia looks promising, Captiva is in runout, theres discounting on the bottom end products, thats the guts of it and not really any revelations.

And then the guess work, they think there may be an updated Astra and Trax and they maybe unlikely to move more than 60,000 units next year.
Thats about what they'll end up with this year, averaging 5k/month and still better than VW, Kia, Subaru, Nissan etc. etc.
None of which are shutting up shop and abandoning Australia, not that i've read anyway.

You know what i reckon is a certainty though, just like the house price crash threads the Holden demise threads will be spruiked in the hope that one day they get it right..

[jpd80]

You don't understand, the devil is in the detail.

While discounts are great news for buyers and increase foot traffic
through most dealerships, the fear is that Holden will now be forced
to continue discounts to even make that 60,000 next year.

Add to that, a lot of the boosted sales you're seeing are pre-registrations
of run out Barina, Astra sedan and Captiva - all of those will all be gone
in the next few months.

Once they run out of that "steam", what's the next move?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You don't understand, the devil is in the detail.

While discounts are great news for buyers and increase foot traffic
through most dealerships, the fear is that Holden will now be forced
to continue discounts to even make that 60,000 next year.

Add to that, a lot of the boosted sales you're seeing are pre-registrations
of run out Barina, Astra sedan and Captiva - all of those will all be gone
in the next few months.

Once they run out of that "steam", what's the next move?

Dont know, but im prepared to wait and see, you?

[BENT_8]

Do you think its only Holden thats feeling the squeeze, its not.
I was talking to my neighbour on Saturday afternoon, he was telling me they sent him home with a demo with 3800kms on it, got 40 registeted demos in their dealer network all of which are around those km and cant register any more until they move some which is proving hard to do.
They dont sell Holden, they do sell Ford, Subaru, Suzuki and Isuzu.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Dont know, but im prepared to wait and see, you?

Or instead of being like the rest, we can actually find out things
behind the scenes and share them with other members?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Do you think its only Holden thats feeling the squeeze, its not.
I was talking to my neighbour on Saturday afternoon, he was telling me they sent him home with a demo with 3800kms on it, got 40 registeted demos in their dealer network all of which are around those km and cant register any more until they move some which is proving hard to do.
They dont sell Holden, they do sell Ford, Subaru, Suzuki and Isuzu.

Be careful, what’s happening or not happening in your area of the country
May or may not be indicative of what’s happening elsewhere in our country
So we need more data points like say, the east coast where nearly two thirds
of the population live.....

Having said that, there are indications of a big slowdown in retail sales
last month that was masked a bit by sales to govt fleets.

If the going does get harder it will be doubly so for carmakers still
pushing cars into a market they know has already slowed, those with
Low inventory will be least affected- if Holden can get theirs worked
down they may actually be in better shape than some of the brands
you mentioned

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

If the going does get harder it will be doubly so for carmakers still
pushing cars into a market they know has already slowed, those with
Low inventory will be least affected- if Holden can get theirs worked
down they may actually be in better shape than some of the brands
you mentioned

Perhaps thats been the plan all along, clear stock in anticipation of whats coming, you can always bring in more, but i doubt coming out and admitting it would be good for business in general..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Perhaps thats been the plan all along, clear stock in anticipation of whats coming, you can always bring in more, but i doubt coming out and admitting it would be good for business in general..

You bet.
It's got Buttner's fingerprints all over it, clear the mess away and start again.
Lose some money? Don't care, just get it done, hit the reset button and try again.

January/February, Holden needs a good advertising plan, ZB will be out there nearly 12 months
and lots of fleet cars will be seen around the place, familiarity is necessary to build bridges.

[DFB FGXR6]

The focus on Holden in these sales threads each month is because for so long the brand was the benchmark of the industry.

Over the decades, competitors would try to emulate their offering to compete. Holdens ability to apply its sales and marketing clout kept them at the pointy end of the market for decades.

Putting the PR issues of factory closure aside, what is remarkable this year is how poorly received several new models have been despite a heavy sales and marketing campaign. Holden used to be able to sell ice to Eskimo's and this is why so much focus has been on Holden.

To level up the score, at the other end of the market Jaguar is also having big problems selling products that are new or near new. Two products that should be helping to drive growth, the E-Pace and F-Pace, are simply not winning sales despite being good cars with attractive styling. Seems that image, perceived or otherwise, is a critical part of sales success. And that is something that Holden, who were once golden in the eyes of the public are now battling.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by DFB FGXR6

The focus on Holden in these sales threads each month is because for so long the brand was the benchmark of the industry.

Fair call, but when Holden was at the top of its game it wasnt because it was flogging off record numbers of imports but because they produced a vehicle which Australians wanted and Australia still had a little pride in which its fellow man could produce.
That is but a distant memory and it now competes on a level playing field with every other importer.
The issue i see every month is that certain people make it sound as though holden should still be dominating the market and when they arent its considered a failure and opportunity to gloat.
The truth is, Australia is overrun with choice and with manufacturers who 20 years ago wouldnt have been taken seriously, now commanding a second look, the mighty have fallen, its not just Holden at risk though...

[prydey]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Fair call, but when Holden was at the top of its game it wasnt because it was flogging off record numbers of imports but because they produced a vehicle which Australians wanted and Australia still had a little pride in which its fellow man could produce.
.

I don't believe this. I think you'll find the slide coincided with import tariffs being reduced and opening up Australians to a much larger choice for cheap.

People bought falcons and Commodores through lack of choice. Once choice came along (ie, Australia stopped protecting its auto industry even though every other car producing nation protects theirs), people shopped on price.

Lifestyles changed also, as did the cost of air travel so cars that could comfortably drive all day and fit the whole family plus luggage, were discarded in favour of small city cars and large 'lifestyle' cars.

I'm not sure it had much to do with people being more patriotic in years gone by.

Global trade has made it very difficult for an island the size of Australia to compete.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

I don't believe this. I think you'll find the slide coincided with import tariffs being reduced and opening up Australians to a much larger choice for cheap.

People bought falcons and Commodores through lack of choice. Once choice came along (ie, Australia stopped protecting its auto industry even though every other car producing nation protects theirs), people shopped on price.

Lifestyles changed also, as did the cost of air travel so cars that could comfortably drive all day and fit the whole family plus luggage, were discarded in favour of small city cars and large 'lifestyle' cars.

I'm not sure it had much to do with people being more patriotic in years gone by.

Global trade has made it very difficult for an island the size of Australia to compete.

Yes a lot of good points there Rob no doubt, death by a thousand cuts would be a fair conclusion.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Yes a lot of good points there Rob no doubt, death by a thousand cuts would be a fair conclusion.

What some call death by a thousand cuts was simply offering buyers more choices.
When people were offered alternatives to big cars that suited their needs better, they switched
and kept right on switching for the next 15-20 years until the inevitable happened to the locals.

I think national pride went under a bus early because so many former buyers felt utterly screwed
over by Ford and Holden and ran right into the arms of Toyota and never looked back.

[hackney]

[QUOTE=prydey;6215605]I don't believe this. I think you'll find the slide coincided with import tariffs being reduced and opening up Australians to a much larger choice for cheap.

It all started with the “Button Plan”.(Senator John Button,Hawke/Keating Gov’t)The beginning of the end for the Aus auto industry.Cheers

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by jpd80

If true, then perhaps the crossover, Focus Active might be something that arrives later in 2019....

All a bit too slow again from Ford.

Hyundai Kona etc is already out there