The decline of fossil fuels - and how that effects car enthusiasts

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Further context around it - is the Gen 1 NiCD or NiMH and the current generation LiIon?

What are their capacities?

The point is cost and energy density has radically improved

2005 is 6500 mAhr NiMH 200 lbs
2020 is 1.4 Kwhr LiH 59 lbs

The next 5-10 years could see batteries that are 1/3 cheaper and fully charge in under 15 mins
Some Chinese manufacturers are now investigating swap and go batteries that can be changed in 3 mins.
(Really hate autocorrect)

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The point is cost and energy density has radically improved

2005 is 6500 mAhr NiMH 200 lbs
2020 is 1.4 Kwhr LiH 59 lbs

The next 5-10 years could see batteries that are 1/3 cheaper and fully charge in under 15 mins
Some Chinese manufacturers are now investigating swap and go batteries that can be changes in 3 mins.

Nice strawman argument, you've compared two different technologies.

Lithium ion batteries have been around in commercial applications since 1991 and Nickel Metal hydride since 1989 (and designed in the late 1960s) - you grabbed two different technologies, both which have been around for decades prior to their implementation in those vehicles and then act in amazement that 30 years after it was commercialised one is smaller than the other.

I'll believe your fancy cheap super fast charging batteries when I see them, until then its the same likelihood of a unicorn winning Melbourne Cup - comparing Apples and Durians.

[Junkyard-Dog]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

12V DC - there's probably a reason it needs assistance from a regular turbo to be in the system and this extra thing just helps along rather than runs the whole show.

Think of the electric turbo as the "small" turbo in a sequential turbo set-up. It's purpose is similar - it is primarily designed to negate turbo delay lag, to increase low-midrange torque and to improve effiency, etc.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Note that you buy hydrogen on weight rather than volume like unleaded from the servo -

Fuel is sold at Temperature Corrected Volume...!!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Fuel is sold at Temperature Corrected Volume...!!

Still not sold on kilos though

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Nice strawman argument, you've compared two different technologies.

Lithium ion batteries have been around in commercial applications since 1991 and Nickel Metal hydride since 1989 (and designed in the late 1960s) - you grabbed two different technologies, both which have been around for decades prior to their implementation in those vehicles and then act in amazement that 30 years after it was commercialised one is smaller than the other.

I'll believe your fancy cheap super fast charging batteries when I see them, until then its the same likelihood of a unicorn winning Melbourne Cup - comparing Apples and Durians.

Funny that you talk strawman arguments when you launch into hyperbole yourself…
The future is closer than you think.

Why not compare two different battery technologies, the reason we have
LiH in electric vehicles is exactly because the cost has come down so much.
Power density is rising constantly now, that and larger cells are bringing
down the costs…

The Chinese are well advanced with a sodium based battery…..

Manufacturers are now pouring tens of billions into electric vehicles and the battery tech that goes with them.
While it might seem to equate to ICEs in the 1920, I’m certain that the pace of development will be much faster
as the quest is there for a complete ICE replacement and they’ll keep going until that is done.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Funny that you talk strawman arguments when you launch into hyperbole yourself…
The future is closer than you think.

Why not compare two different battery technologies, the reason we have
LiH in electric vehicles is exactly because the cost has come down so much.
Power density is rising constantly now, that and larger cells are bringing
down the costs…

The Chinese are well advanced with a sodium based battery…..

I'm still waiting for the 'paperless office', computers not needing more than 640kb of RAM and no Australian child being in poverty by 1990 as well.

Less trust in fake news and more reality rather than clown world koolaid I reckon, we can have a look at this thread in 2027 and see how good batteries are then.

[jakka351]

(Correct me if my numbers are off) I think there are 21 Million cars on the road in Australia currently, about a million are removed, and about a million are added each year. Compare this with the 5 Million active electric vehicle's globally...and it seems like it's not something to worry about just yet.

While I am definitely all for reducing and ceasing greenhouse gas emissions - I do not think electrifying cars will solve this crisis, much more radical action should have been taken 10, 20 years ago - like Nuclear power to replace coalfired power, and heavy investment into hydrogen fusion over the next 100 years to make that viable for the 2100's.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm still waiting for the 'paperless office', computers not needing more than 640kb of RAM and no Australian child being in poverty by 1990 as well.

Stay on point mate, the reason you’re deflecting with unequal comparison is that you have nothing

1. The reason we haven’t gone paperless is because too many cling to old mechanical systems like reading newspapers

2. Computers became more than just type writers, people wanted advanced graphics for gaming and large images

3. A noble objective suggested by a prime minister who was emotionally compromised by his own daughters situation.
Ask any liberal and they’ll tell you that poor people only have themselves to blame (not true btw)

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Stay on point mate, the reason you’re deflecting with unequal comparison is that you have nothing

I've got 150 years of science and engineering that's lead us to the current point, where that the best minds for a century and a half have delivered an energy density that requires 20KG of batteries to 1KG of fossil fuels.

You've got empty promises from China

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by jakka351

(Correct me if my numbers are off) I think there are 21 Million cars on the road in Australia currently, about a million are removed, and about a million are added each year. Compare this with the 5 Million active electric vehicle's globally...and it seems like it's not something to worry about just yet.

While I am definitely all for reducing and ceasing greenhouse gas emissions - I do not think electrifying cars will solve this crisis, much more radical action should have been taken 10, 20 years ago - like Nuclear power to replace coalfired power, and heavy investment into hydrogen fusion over the next 100 years to make that viable for the 2100's.

Forget about GHG and emissions for a moment.

If you think about fuel alone, all of it is now imported, so dollars flowing out of the country.
now, change that to electric cars, repowered by energy generated here and more money stays here.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I've got 150 years of science and engineering that's lead us to the current point, where that the best minds for a century and a half have delivered an energy density that requires 20KG of batteries to 1KG of fossil fuels.

You've got empty promises from China

You know what Franco, you’re absolutely right, the energy density compared to fuel is still terrible

The first defeat of electric cars happened in the 1920s when gasoline had a power density 500 times that of lead acid batteries, ther was no way to argue with the low cost of petroleum based fuels.

By 2012, gasoline still had a power density advantage over Lithium Ion of 100 to 1, still terrible and not a threat to ICE and gasoline/diesel

Fast forward to 2021 and it’s down to 20 to 1 and again I agree, it’s still terrible….

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Forget about GHG and emissions for a moment.

If you think about fuel alone, all of it is now imported, so dollars flowing out of the country.
now, change that to electric cars, repowered by energy generated here and more money stays here.

Right, so instead of money going to the Middle East, the money goes to the Chinese companies who own all our power infrastructure.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Right, so instead of money going to the Middle East, the money goes to the Chinese companies who own all our power infrastructure.

No they don’t, you know that’s incorrect
And if it ever becomes a problem, the government can force their sale, like they did with other assets in the past.

[ivorya]

Originally Posted by jakka351

(Correct me if my numbers are off) I think there are 21 Million cars on the road in Australia currently, about a million are removed, and about a million are added each year. Compare this with the 5 Million active electric vehicle's globally...and it seems like it's not something to worry about just yet.

While I am definitely all for reducing and ceasing greenhouse gas emissions - I do not think electrifying cars will solve this crisis, much more radical action should have been taken 10, 20 years ago - like Nuclear power to replace coalfired power, and heavy investment into hydrogen fusion over the next 100 years to make that viable for the 2100's.

Just trying to compute this ....

So don't do anything now because it should have been done 10-20yrs ago?

If this was the mentality of all, we would still be in the bronze age.

[slowsnake]

I know it's off topic a bit, but talking about turbochargers and turbo lag, so using an electric motor to spin the turbine blades faster at low rpm, thereby creating a turbine that runs faster even at idle?
Is that correct?

I know this is going to sound very strange to a lot of folk, but, why can't we use the engines cooling system through a series of step down dia tube that spin the turbine blades for you!
It's not that hard to work out pressure wise, high pressure water is now being utilised to cut through thick steel plate etc, all by downsizing the tube that supply the water jet, we already have the means water under pressure ,just a matter of extending the driveshaft through the turbo housing into a very tight tolerance waterpowered vane!

Just an idea, maybe it looks alright on principle but surely one of you
" pressure heads " here on the forum could work out the math, just a thought!

[JasonACT]

You mean a supercharger (rather than a turbocharger)... More energy loss, from what I understand, sorry.

[ivorya]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTXptUuKGrc

This is what China is doing now. Nio is the brand.

Selling in Europe, mostly Norway but expected to expand.

If you get a chance, watch the 8th episode of Fifth Gear Recharged where they take it for a drive and a battery replacement. That takes <5mins.

[jakka351]

Originally Posted by ivorya

Just trying to compute this ....

So don't do anything now because it should have been done 10-20yrs ago?

If this was the mentality of all, we would still be in the bronze age.

I'm saying electric cars is too little too late, but yes I guess I did sound a bit bronze agey

[JasonACT]

(Did no-one notice the white LED lights in my now spare FGII cluster from the SZ Ghia? Just me then... No surprise really.)

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by jpd80

T

The next 5-10 years could see batteries that are 1/3 cheaper and fully charge in under 15 mins
Some Chinese manufacturers are now investigating swap and go batteries that can be changed in 3 mins.

source?

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm still waiting for the 'paperless office', computers not needing more than 640kb of RAM and no Australian child being in poverty by 1990 as well.

Less trust in fake news and more reality rather than clown world koolaid I reckon, we can have a look at this thread in 2027 and see how good batteries are then.

Paperless happened a long time ago, the technology has been there.

What has held us back are fragile old dinosaurs who cannot let go of the paper and refuse to change even for their own benefit. In this i also include governments, esp. the Health Depts who rely too much of physical paper and even faxes (yes they still do even after COVID. They're even willing to pay near on $2k for a fax card in a PC). Day to Day there is so little need for paper.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by jakka351

I'm saying electric cars is too little too late, but yes I guess I did sound a bit bronze agey

Honestly, battery electric vehicles as in cars and SUVs is a bit cart before the horse,
it’s a way of engaging hundreds of millions of people that vote but really, passenger road vehicles
are a disproportionately minor emitter of carbon and GHGs. Lots of governments have fudged
their efforts to reduce emissions from power generation simply because they refuse to spend
Hundreds of billions replacing coal fired power plants with green alternatives or nuclear.

We live in a funny old world of nonsensical well meaning leaders that just don’t know what to do.
Leave cars, trucks and buses alone and let the market decide when it’s ready to change.

The Germans are planning to shut down nuclear and buy gas from the Russians,
their ultimate aim is to shut down coal fired power plants, good luck with that…

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Paperless happened a long time ago, the technology has been there.

What has held us back are fragile old dinosaurs who cannot let go of the paper and refuse to change even for their own benefit. In this i also include governments, esp. the Health Depts who rely too much of physical paper and even faxes (yes they still do even after COVID. They're even willing to pay near on $2k for a fax card in a PC). Day to Day there is so little need for paper.

I've worked with paperless solutions for many years now, and yet the company I work for still hasn't let go within their production facility.

we also work with Healthcare, the reason they haven't changed is the what if it fails mentality. and they are right networks still go down.
the same reason Hospitals have back up generators.

The staff hanging onto old ways can be trained but. were not there yet..

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'll believe your fancy cheap super fast charging batteries when I see them, until then its the same likelihood of a unicorn winning Melbourne Cup - comparing Apples and Durians.

I'm sick of hearing about new battery tech that's coming.
totally with you on this -
I'm all for new technology too, but lets see it first

If i could convert my Diesel merc to electric i would in a heartbeat...


Charged off the solar panels in my roof and it would probably be the last vehicle i own...

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by TrVrPhiLpsiNdstrys

If i could convert my Diesel merc to electric i would in a heartbeat...


Charged off the solar panels in my roof and it would probably be the last vehicle i own...

https://www.ozdiyelectricvehicles.com/

[Junkyard-Dog]

I don't necessarily know what this thread is about any more... but I like the chaos.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by JasonACT

You mean a supercharger (rather than a turbocharger)... More energy loss, from what I understand, sorry.

a clutch type turbocharger,, think diesel/electric locomotive..

[Elks]

Wait wait wait I've just got to put on a crash helmet and tighten my harnesses. Buckling in for a bit of hate.

Is the brutal truth within the next decade most of you will loan an EV. Full Electric powered by either the grid or your own home solar system.

The cost of running an EV like a base model Tesla model 3, over five years is now cheaper than renting a Camry with an average 15,000 km per annum usage. The reason being charged off the grid in Victoria costs about nine dollars to fully charge an EV. Versus $60 to $100 for fuel. And whilst this forum is full of motor enthusiasts who will probably be the last to convert the purchase of EV's, there is an entire 26 million Australians who are not a part of this forum who would happily have a car they can do is drive and plug-in in the get home and operate with high reliability and minimal cost.

I hate to use Tesla as an example but it's the most advanced of EV manufacturers. Their styling is the worst but their tech is the best. I know plenty of non-motoring enthusiasts who have stated that the next car is a Tesla. These are Camry drivers these are not owners of X RA Falcon.

So when we say "but they got no noise" they say good, and we say who wants self driving, they say "me".

Now imagine you're living and working on the outer edge of one of the major cities travelling 50 km to work and back every day and you can turn your $100 to $150 a week fuel bill into $20 or less. Potentially free if you got a good solar system. And you may not be driving a new snappy Tesla your vehicle of choice may be at Nissen Leaf or a Chinese built MG EV or one of dozens of other cars will no doubt land in the market. An EV may not be your only choice, it may be the family second car, maintaining a conventional SUV or 4x4 pickup truck of some sort for use as the family trucks are on holidays.

Alternative fuels like hydrogen really make no sense. Hydrogen might be good for powering a manufacturing plant of some sort but it's not the fuel for automotive use. The cost to produce transport pump would far exceed any EV, and comes with other risks, such as making metal brittle over time, requiring a LPG style check of older vehicles. With the downside there being that hydrogen is quite volatile. Think Hindenburg.

As mentioned earlier E 85 is a reasonable transitional fuel, and possibly even whatever you would call the 100 pure alcohol, could be viable, however you'd need to be able to grow masses of cornfields that the land for just does not exist in Australia to get the pop to make the alcohol to make all the cars run.

We do have solar fields, we have massive amounts of solar fields and have the ability to build more and we have the space and we have the son. Like it or not this will be the future.

A model 3 Performance is $97,484 driveaway in Victoria right now. But that you get a medium-sized five seater sedan capable of zero 200 in 3.1 seconds and 11 point 1/4 mile. It's also a reasonably good handling car at the BMW level but perhaps not M series BMW. This this is staggeringly good value for money, when you consider the amounts we have paid for falcons that cannot even get close to that.

But as mentioned earlier they do lack the style.

The most likely number two manufacturer of EV's in the world is in fact Ford. It is holding massive order banks for Mac E Mustang and F150 lightning.

It's also investing something in the order of $8 billion US in Kentucky in new manufacturing for both electric vehicles and batteries. All of which will be powered by renewable energy. And to put that into perspective imagine how much electricity the Ford Rouge River plant in Dearborn would have consumed over the last hundred years. This new plant will not cost a cent.

Properly the next player is Volkswagen but their EV's are seemingly plagued with electrical issues just like a normal VW.

I have no intentions of selling my V8's, but I do see that they will be relegated to weekend use and they'll come out only for the sake of nostalgia.

It's coming guys buckle up.