Israeli attacks on neighbouring countries = major increase to crude oil prices

[FordFan86]

Bring back Facism. :P

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by FordFan86

Bring back Facism. :P

The AFF left would have me believe it's already back

[nugget378]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

That's the crux of it again, isnt it? You're willing to uproot an entire industry. Completely re invent the wheel into state controlled assets. Cut our ties with the global energy market. Basically, take every last dollar we have and gamble it on a single hand.

All so we can get cheaper petrol for our cars? There is more to life than driving a big car. Try explaining that to the majority of Australians.

It has nothing to do with driving big cars, I can park my "big" car and drive it twice a year,or just race it on methanol.
It's about every car,bus and truck out there, day after day, being gouged mercilessly.The type of every day transort we could'nt possibly live without.
And why is it a gamble? Seems a sure thing going off the profits oil company's are making.
Governments find it easy to grab peoples assets at a price that they deem "fair". I wont hold my breath that they'll apply the same standards to the corporations that tend to give polititians cushy consultants jobs when they retire, we live in a quid pro quo society as far as politics are concerned.

[merlin]

Originally Posted by nugget378

Just think what cheaper fuel would do for us.
.

Increased traffic (Sydney roads already can't cope), increased pollution, enhance the greenhouse effect, delay advancement into alternative 'clean' fuels ect.

Ultra cheap fuel isn't necessarily great. Imagine if the fuel price got so bad companies were forced to invest heavily in alternative technologies and consumers were forced to buy these technologies - more power, no emissions, light weight - Aus sustainable by itself without relying on the nut jobs in the middle east ect ect ect. the technology is almost there it just needs people to take it up.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by merlin

Increased traffic (Sydney roads already can't cope), increased pollution, enhance the greenhouse effect, delay advancement into alternative 'clean' fuels ect.

Ultra cheap fuel isn't necessarily great. Imagine if the fuel price got so bad companies were forced to invest heavily in alternative technologies and consumers were forced to buy these technologies - more power, no emissions, light weight - Aus sustainable by itself without relying on the nut jobs in the middle east ect ect ect. the technology is almost there it just needs people to take it up.

Hmmm... my next door neigbour is "going solar", he is just waiting for the panels to arrive from Germany.

The panels are the most efficient kind made, an Aussie design from a couple of blokes in Sydney. They dearly wanted to set up shop here but could not get backing, everyone including the government said it wouldn't make money.

The large "German owned" factory has it's total production sold through to 2010.

[fordfuntastic]

This whole situation is unjust and plunder. This conflict is FUELED by greed and people being ripped off by their OWN GOVERNMENTS. The west wants to syphon the middle east dry and cash carry their own stagnant reserves for future prosperity

John howard has pledged
a huge amount of GAS to china at next to nothing and was quoted as saying " We have huge reserves". So then why does the Australian public have to pay such a high tariff on their domestic gas? Like wise with crude oil the United states and Australia has vast quantities of crude oil, barrel vaulted underground so as to keep in reserve whilst relying on middle east crude. After they have drained the "House of Saud" and the Iraqi pipe line somewhere down the future, they will then open up their reserves to DOMINATE the world in crude whilst screwing its
own people paying through the nose as WE are all doing today. This is just the beginning and a very mild cost for fuel. It gives reason to up the prices to say $1.60 a litre and continue beyond this. So when we see a drop of say 3 cents a litre WE rejoice at the discount price but have forgotten that petrol was once $0.89 cents a litre.

Australias will be a energy super power as Howard has just announced tonight on the 9 network indicating that Australia must have huge reserves of crude and gas in idle reserves.

So where will this all come from? The middle east is being drawn dry and once this happens only desert and desert will remain and clusters of a bygone era of petroleum "ghost towns".

By the time this will happen Australia will have experienced a huge price hike in fuel and then set the acceptable price per litre say $3-5 per litre and then oil the squeking seized
taps of their reserves and fullfill the super power status as its is being planned
as is with Texas crude to be the greatest cartel of the dynasty of oil domination. So will the Australian people benefit from this prophecy of being a oil mogul of super power? No it wont because the public will be duped and accept the price that is con-current in a new middle east. America versus Australia the new oil pipeline to a service station near you.

Everything serves its purpose but the middle east is the building block to western superpowers being established once it is dry. We as the public will see high petrol prices because its a convenient way to monopolize the world and use its own people as scapegoats and tax incentives.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

There are examples of both systems. Some have faired better than others.

Frankly I like being able to walk into the supermarket and buy a loaf of bread. Would be a shame if you had to line up for it because the state identified incorrect production values for the next '5 year plan'. I'll leave it at that.

Come on mate I was just messing with you :

We all know getting the government involved in anything comes at a price.

Whos '5 year plan' do we hold responsible for the "skills shortage"? :voldar02:

[nugget378]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Hmmm... my next door neigbour is "going solar", he is just waiting for the panels to arrive from Germany.

The panels are the most efficient kind made, an Aussie design from a couple of blokes in Sydney. They dearly wanted to set up shop here but could not get backing, everyone including the government said it wouldn't make money.

The large "German owned" factory has it's total production sold through to 2010.

Im doing the same thing myself, bringing power lines over 4 odd km is not cheap.
Best part though is once set up,other than maintenance It's free

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Whos '5 year plan' do we hold responsible for the "skills shortage"? :voldar02:

It is all good, Mr Horse. Ive enjoyed every single instance in which we have debated the mysteries of life upon this very forum. And in response to the comment i've highlighted... i have just one word.

Touché!

Lol :

[Iphido]

Fuel won't be getting cheaper.

Fuel price will climb higher. Just like resource prices. Oil, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Aluminium, copper, platnium, iron.. You name it, its going up. Copper and iron have more than doubled in price in the past few years. As china (and then india?) industrialise the demand for resources like iron and oil will increase.

Start making plans to be less reliant on oil.

While the government has 50% tax on oil, I really understand why. Look at our roads. What are they made of. Yep, oil products. Yeh they too get more expensive with oil increases.

Smaller cars don't always use heaps less petrol.

BF Fairmont Ghia with the punchy 4.0L 190Kw six cylinder engine used 7.6L on the highway cycle. Exactly the same as a Mazda 6 with its 2.3L modern 122kw engine. Comparing the older 4 speed Mazda6 to the new falcon makes it 10.0 verse 10.2 (the new 5 speed auto gets a impressive 8.9L combined). Still 1.3 L per hundread Km isn't much, and the BF has loads more power and space. And the mazda 6 needs 95 ron fuel!

I know I could save 40% of my fuel costs if I just drove diffrently. hence why im ditching the frantic manual skyline for the auto relaxed Fairmont Ghia.

[xbgs351]

Guys, please please please read some articles written by Terry McCrann of the Herald Sun on the subject of petrol pricing.

[ED Classic]

Ah well In Europe they have been riding Scooters/Vespas for years. Whats the worst we have to do this and a) Save tons of $ per year over what we spend now on Petrol and cost of a car..... b) We solve the traffic problem of inner city almost instantly.... c) We solve parking problems instantly.....d) Less emissions = Better for the enviroment.

Whats the downside? You get wet on a wet day. It will take time for some to become competent riders. No big deal...Perhaps we have had it too easy for too long?

[MO]

If I'm not wrong aren't Australias fuel prices set by Singapore?

Because we ship the bulk of our fuel from there.

And I will ignore and treat with appropriate contempt the references to 'The Left'of the forum!

[HSE2]

Originally Posted by red_hotxr6

Is there some one here who knows or is old enough to know if this is something new. I am talking about at least 50plus years ago if we had a hurricane did the petrol prices rise or if there was a war going on say in the middle east or near that neck of the woods wdid oil prices rise.? I am just trying to put this in its proper perspective, because all it seems that has to happen is a "looming crisis" and petrol prices go up, immediately, hence the CEO,s of these companies put away a sum of money that we could only deem as, winning the lotto. So did this type of thing happen back in the good old days.? :

Yes it is something new. You won't get too many analyses agreeing on what will happen or how high petrol will go, largely because the predictions thus far have been incorrect. The market exists primarily to make a profit. You buy for less sell for more. Demand is part of it but the ability to pay is the other, it’s not exactly a pay at all cost proposition not by most accounts anyway.

Taking China as just one example, they have and are aligning them selves with the specific intention of not paying open market prices for their oil.


The reason why this has never happened and it won't happen again is that the risk premium that is built into the price is changing and not for the better.

When oil first hit $50 dollars it was said to include a risk premium of between $4 and $8. You might have read or heard people talk about the "fair price", well what we have here is the fair price plus an increased risk premium that results in arguably an over valued stock but its not that simple.

It said the current risk premium is about $15 give or take.

The risk premium has gone up because the ability to match demand has reduced considerably then at any other point in history and from now on it won't be the same either. We are running out of oil, it is that simple. We have a high risk situation that could disrupt supply.

The last time the US faced serious supply issues the Nixon administration implemented price control measures. It’s simply not a matter of paying more for your car. That’s a picnic for what the cost of essential living will be. That’s where you get civil revolt that has to be managed at Government level. If you don't have the money to pay a vicious circle develops and we are seeing the start of it now. The American auto industry is now contemplating the scenario of the consumer not only changing their buying habits but completely regressing from that market. The implications of such a buyer revolt could be potentially catastrophic. The design of the money market is to not shoot yourself in the foot. Can the market be manipulated? Yes. Speculators have vested interests. There are new players in this market that don’t normally deal in commodities as a specialty.

It’s hard to say this but in so many ways this is something that has to happen. The sooner it happens the better the chances of reducing a recession or worse a depression. Familiar with the term bread and dripping or am I showing my age? Even Chinas boom will quickly turn to bust if that occurs. 99% of any comment on the price of oil will include some statement on the economy as they are intrinsically linked. From that point on experts will differ in how bad, how fast and how much but they do have one common bit of advice.

[MO]

I can remember when it cost 2shillings a gallon...its only in the last(roughly) 15 yrs that the oil price has started to go north.

[CSGT 428]

I guess its out with the old still and start making my own methanol for my BB because oil aint everything.

Plus there is No Middle / Middle / middle / middle man in the Cycle of production and consumption

unlike the oil process where everyone has a dip at the poor consumer.

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by MO

If I'm not wrong aren't Australias fuel prices set by Singapore?

Because we ship the bulk of our fuel from there.

Set by singapore? No. Set IN singapore - yes.

Our fuel price is based on the singapore index for the relevant fuel. However, the index is just that - used to track the change in value for a stock, commodity or overall market. The singapore index for fuel is driven by market forces. Although i'm sure the price elasticity is pushed to its limit...

Im not sure if we phyiscally ship most of our fuel from there - its just this is the market our refineries participate in.

i.e. we pay the singapore index rate for petrol refined on our shores - or else our refineries will sell it to someone willing to pay the singapore index rate.

Also worth noting this is a base price for refined petroleum... not oil.

LPG price is the saudi contract??

Originally Posted by HSE2

It said the current risk premium is about $15 give or take.

The risk premium has gone up because the ability to match demand has reduced considerably then at any other point in history and from now on it won't be the same either. We are running out of oil, it is that simple. We have a high risk situation that could disrupt supply.

Would the risk premium simply be a numerical representation of the implied volatility of oil?

i.e. the increased risk premium represents the fact that supply concerns now have a larger impact on the price of oil than such concerns did previously...

It’s hard to say this but in so many ways this is something that has to happen. The sooner it happens the better the chances of reducing a recession or worse a depression

Could not agree more. The sooner this particular bubble bursts, the less distance we have to plummet.

Unfortunatley the stubborness of humans in general suggests to me that we'll be riding this one all the way to the top of the peak... with a considerable altitude from which to fall from. I look outside the window now and the line of traffic idling off into the horizon - it does not look like a population ready to accept that oil's running a bit low....

[OzJavelin]

.. and here we are on a website dedicated to automobiles .. and the majority of us think of them as our hobby. We are probably the biggest hypocrites in regard to this matter. For most of us our viewpoint on this matter is self-centred and shortsighted .. very much me included

[MO]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Set by singapore? No. Set IN singapore - yes.

....

There you go...told you I could be wrong and guess what I was....hahahahaha

[Yum-Yum]

Bugger, our fuel price went up 6c's over night currently $1.77lt 91 unleaded, liking the sound of scooters at the moment.

[red_hotxr6]

Well i am stumped, our,s is still at $1.20 a ltr.What is going on.?

[Mechan1k]

Cos the QLD government still subsidises your petrol.

[red_hotxr6]

Yeah right . Today it is $72.50 a barrell, dropping again, but petrol has now gone to $1.35.

[MO]

Originally Posted by Mechan1k

Cos the QLD government still subsidises your petrol.

Just because there is a subsidy..doesn't mean the local can't charge more.

And yes we're lucky...but for how long?