Australia housing bubble

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I wish dave289 was still on AFF to participate in this discussion.

dave289 probably cut his wrists after wrongfully predicting the bubble would burst in 2012 and not having bought property between then and 2017. Or else he's on here still and goes by another name

[.:4:.]

When i bought my house in 2012, my ex wifes brother went on a rant and said i was an idiot as renting is so much cheaper and easier. Firstly i bought in an area 30km closer to the city. So his rent was a lot cheaper then my mortgage at the time. A couple years later he bragged about how his rent remained the same yet others rent was going up and up. Then he got the 3 months notice as his rental had been sold. Now whos laughing? Not being able to justify the new rents that are double what he was paying, he rents out near bowral. Still has to comute to sydney airport every morning and back out to the sticks every arvo. Considering i pay less now then renting a 2 bedroom unit for a house and my land value has increased quite a percentage, i must have been an idiot to buy.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by GT0132

dave289 probably cut his wrists after wrongfully predicting the bubble would burst in 2012 and not having bought property between then and 2017. Or else he's on here still and goes by another name

He got his timing wrong.

[290GTP]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

He got his timing wrong.

He got most things wrong.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by GT0132

dave289 probably cut his wrists after wrongfully predicting the bubble would burst in 2012 and not having bought property between then and 2017. Or else he's on here still and goes by another name

we've yet to see how this price correction plays out. if the world avoids a GFC, its likely to be a soft landing, but good luck if it doesn't....

[MITCHAY]

I emailed my broker last Friday and he has put in a rate retention request. I figure if I don't ask, I don't get. If they say no I'm no worse than I am now. It's not a big deal but if you can claw buck a couple hundred backs, then why not?

Sorta like car insurance, the computer works it all out and if you call up you can get a better deal.

I got a response today saying they are jammed with requests so at least a 7 business day wait

[MITCHAY]

Well I'm pretty happy. My broker got me the new business rate which now cancels out almost all the rate rises and only 0.05 more than when I originally got my mortgage which is pretty good.

A lot of doom and gloom predicted for values this year but not a problem for people who have not over borrowed.

Like I have said before, if **** gets that bad where I owe more than my place is worth, I will have worse problems

[vztrt]

Might be worth a read for non home owners.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-...ement/10996318

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Might be worth a read for non home owners.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-...ement/10996318

Be very hard renting and living on pension as main source of income.

Depressing and a cautionary take for people to take steps to buy their house outright by time they are 65, and set up a superfund nest egg.

I was a poor student at uni and paid rental in share accommodation, and at times struggled to put food on the table, and heating was sometimes beyond me- and that was in Hobart.

But I was 21-23, fit and strong. Cannot imagine such misery at 70 plus...

[b0son]

Originally Posted by asagaai

But I was 21-23, fit and strong. Cannot imagine such misery at 70 plus...

Maybe if the dropkicks in the public housing system were held accountable for doing crimes, trashing houses, etc, they could be booted out, freeing up stock for those genuinely in need.

[anobserver]

The runup in prices had meant people are mortgaged longer and later. Retirement will likely be deferred as it simply wont be affordable.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-...e-debt/8667672

Two takeaways stats from the article.

# Outstanding mortgage debt is up from one in three to two in three homeowners in the 45 to 54 age group.

# In the 55 to 65 group the number still owing money has tripled from 14 to 42 per cent.

Sobering.

[davenl5l]

Paying mine off next week....WOO HOO

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by davenl5l

Paying mine off next week....WOO HOO

Congrats it is a great feeling knowing you own outright with no more weekly mortgage payments

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-...-fall/11061780

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-...-fall/11061780

What I don't understand with this article is that they say mortgage defaults are due to low wage growth. Sure, if you lose your job and can't get another one you will struggle to service your debt. However just because your wage hasn't "grown" should mean jack. If you can't afford your your loan payments because your wages haven't "grown" how the hell do you afford them if interest rates go up to 10%?

Also the decline in house prices has nothing to do with whether or not you can continue to afford your loan payments. Banks won't foreclose if you are making your loan repayments in accordance with your loan contract. A home loan does not operate like a margin loan for buying shares in that you have to top up your equity if the value of the asset diminishes.

Regarding wage growth - your wage will grow if you are paid less than the market rate for your services with the market rate based on supply v demand. If an employer secures your services for $40 an hour because that's the rate at which others are willing to sell their services for, why do some think the are worth $45 ?

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...-shut/11487524

[Citroënbender]

There’s a mass of (re)development around me, most driven by foreign agents - developers and buyers. It’s totally at odds with other overt indicators of a massive slowdown. I do wonder if there’s people punting on an authoritarian crackdown in HK and resultant PR here for large numbers of wealthy ex-residents; shadows of Tiananmen...

Even the traditional indications (to me) of a downturn like hoarding and horsetrading are slow - used small box trailers remain fairly cheap and 20 foot containers are the cheapest they’ve been in years. Wreckers are cutting stock as scrap sales rather than sit out a flat spell.

[FairmontGS]

Well, that was bottom a couple of months back. I hope everyone who could get onboard did so.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Well, that was bottom a couple of months back. I hope everyone who could get onboard did so.

You've never heard of a dead cat bounce? All signs point to a recession, I'm curious what you think will underpin another boom.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by b0son

You've never heard of a dead cat bounce? All signs point to a recession, I'm curious what you think will underpin another boom.

Sure, I know what a DCB is. You read too much into what I said - I said it was "bottom", not another boom. But I wouldn't be surprised if it did boom again.

I have little opinion on whether there will be a recession, not that it matters for investors. There's heaps of people with lots of cash and bank deposits and equities are returning jack ATM.

Add to the mix the fact that the RBA and banks realised they over-cooked the slow-down and have relaxed borrowing restrictions and mortgage rates are at an all-time low and it could be the start of the next cycle.

[b0son]

In some markets, it may well be worth buying. Syd/Melb? Poor yields with little prospect for growth, and high vacancy rates. I'll wait a year (at least). Especially out my way (SW Syd), we have a glut of new development hitting the market over the next few years.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by b0son

In some markets, it may well be worth buying. Syd/Melb? Poor yields with little prospect for growth, and high vacancy rates. I'll wait a year (at least). Especially out my way (SW Syd), we have a glut of new development hitting the market over the next few years.

Why not look for a bargain new apartment with exploding concrete or radioactive ground under your feet- must be bargains galore coming soon

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by b0son

In some markets, it may well be worth buying. Syd/Melb? Poor yields with little prospect for growth, and high vacancy rates. I'll wait a year (at least). Especially out my way (SW Syd), we have a glut of new development hitting the market over the next few years.

If you want to get in earlier then plump for an Inner West apartment on a train station and built in 1960-70. You won't go far wrong.

[Syndrome]

Last night I was shocked to see how many shop fronts are vacant in Fitzroy Street, St. Kilda. Wasn't like that only a couple of years ago. Recession is imminent.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Last night I was shocked to see how many shop fronts are vacant in Fitzroy Street, St. Kilda. Wasn't like that only a couple of years ago. Recession is imminent.

Same deal in Newcastle- Darby Street. Many shopfronts for sale/vacant on a once boutique thriving street.

I looked at a shop which was on the market for some $790,000 and I did my sums and it did not stack up for me, and the agent called me back and said vendor would look at high 600s and then said hey $670 will do it.

My brother is a real estate agent and he is telling me there are a lot of people who are struggling and cannot fund $2,000 to market properties they have to sell- and they are using Facebook etc for those situations.

Something is happening out there....

[Citroënbender]

Something is happening out there....

It's truly weird, ordinary business are very slow around here - the only one apparently thriving is a market spin company. I honestly believe there's a lot of denial/self-deception about the longer term state of peoples' economic prospects.

[Sprintey]

Got the impression after the shock election all the stops would be pulled to keep housing going. Dropping cash rate from 1.50% to 1% seemed to trigger AUD beating and PMs went on a rampage. A large proportion of the world's bond market is in negative rate territory, and effective US Fed funds rate of 2.13% (just looked, St Louis Fed) is 95% of global positive sovereign yields!!! We are at 5000 year lows in interest rates...

Are houses going up? Ads on the telly are telling me it's the best time ever and to jump before I miss out.

Business, well AUD down so tourist areas should stay healthy, strong demand off season here and summer should be very busy. Tradie reports are that it is still strong for new construction locally, still asking for labour.

If it does get to crisis levels, the govco can copy my idea: The First Pet Homeowners Grant. $50,000 toward a first property for your labrador, budgie, etc. That should support prices.

[asagaai]

A major client of mine is getting me to hang 3 months for payment and after rattling and shaking the tree the fruit falls to me between 3 and 4 months post invoice.

Pretty depressing working **** off and laying out money knowing you have a 4 month wait...🙄

[Citroënbender]

That's just wrong, it's like the old days of service trades subcontracting to real estate agencies and getting stretched for 90+ days.

[Sprintey]

Back in the day our accounts lady held a small celebration when she got one of the big miners to within 90 days...