Australia housing bubble

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Got the impression after the shock election all the stops would be pulled to keep housing going. Dropping cash rate from 1.50% to 1% seemed to trigger AUD beating and PMs went on a rampage. A large proportion of the world's bond market is in negative rate territory, and effective US Fed funds rate of 2.13% (just looked, St Louis Fed) is 95% of global positive sovereign yields!!! We are at 5000 year lows in interest rates...

Are houses going up? Ads on the telly are telling me it's the best time ever and to jump before I miss out.

Business, well AUD down so tourist areas should stay healthy, strong demand off season here and summer should be very busy. Tradie reports are that it is still strong for new construction locally, still asking for labour.

If it does get to crisis levels, the govco can copy my idea: The First Pet Homeowners Grant. $50,000 toward a first property for your labrador, budgie, etc. That should support prices.

I'm in what's left of our manufacturing industry, we're a wholesale distributor as well.

Unfortunately all our suppliers are paid in USD except the local raw materials.

We're taking a hit on margin with the Australian peso at the moment.

Though good time to break into supplying the US market as we're Pacific Mexicans.

Speaking on housing prices, realistically people should probably give up the idea of a house in the suburbs on a 1/4 acre block because it's creating a huge metropolis.

Melbourne and Sydney are both monsters with gridlock chaos because everyone keeps going further and further out but the work is in Melbourne/Sydney and they're travelling in.

It would make more sense for people to live in apartments and build upwards rather than outwards.

You can get yourself a two bedroom apartment in Melbourne with a car space for $500K-$600K, it's cheaper than suburbia.

They keep on expanding suburbia South East and West.

Pakenham and Cranbourne are both considered a Melbourne suburb now and they're a long way South East.

Dandenong can take you two hours from Melbourne CBD and it's only 30km or so away from CBD in peak hour.

[Citroënbender]

It depends how you realistically live outside of work related activities as to whether the mythical quarter acre matters. I have always absolutely cherished and utilised my yards.

Indoors is where I go to eat, sleep, and when it’s too hard to do something outdoors in my prevailing conditions (eg, too dark, too wet, too sore/tired). The number of houses around me where you never see anyone engaged in outdoor activities, is quite significant. I don’t know if they are agoraphobic or see outdoorsy stuff as peasant life.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

It depends how you realistically live outside of work related activities as to whether the mythical quarter acre matters. I have always absolutely cherished and utilised my yards.

Indoors is where I go to eat, sleep, and when it’s too hard to do something outdoors in my prevailing conditions (eg, too dark, too wet, too sore/tired). The number of houses around me where you never see anyone engaged in outdoor activities, is quite significant. I don’t know if they are agoraphobic or see outdoorsy stuff as peasant life.

I am working in Sydney on a matter- been in a 1 bedroom unit which is big with balcony near Newtown. Been here 3 days, another 1.5 weeks to go.

Although I can walk to Newtown I am already getting stir crazy- miss walking to beach in Newcastle and having lunch watching ocean, and being at home having air and balconies and watching sunsets over Watagan ranges and engaging with the Magpies and Kookaburras and watching Kites float over the rear cliff.

Some people like apartments and dense city life- I must be a country peasant....

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by asagaai

I am working in Sydney on a matter- been in a 1 bedroom unit which is big with balcony near Newtown. Been here 3 days, another 1.5 weeks to go.

Although I can walk to Newtown I am already getting stir crazy- miss walking to beach in Newcastle and having lunch watching ocean, and being at home having air and balconies and watching sunsets over Watagan ranges and engaging with the Magpies and Kookaburras and watching Kites float over the rear cliff.

Some people like apartments and dense city life- I must be a country peasant....

Yeah, I'll be there too, soon. How's those Sydney / Newtown cockroaches treating you.
I prefer to be a peasant, where you can buy a house on an acre for $200k.

Newcastle is a unique city where a lot of very small businesses start out via the Government NEIS (New Enterprise Incentive Scheme)
New businesses come and go quite regularly in Newcastle.

On the payment thing my terms are strictly net. 7 days.

[FairmontGS]

Lending surges...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...estor/11491966

[FairmontGS]

Auction clearances up...

https://www.afr.com/property/residen...0190908-p52p4n

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm in what's left of our manufacturing industry, we're a wholesale distributor as well.

Unfortunately all our suppliers are paid in USD except the local raw materials.

We're taking a hit on margin with the Australian peso at the moment.

Though good time to break into supplying the US market as we're Pacific Mexicans.

Speaking on housing prices, realistically people should probably give up the idea of a house in the suburbs on a 1/4 acre block because it's creating a huge metropolis.

Melbourne and Sydney are both monsters with gridlock chaos because everyone keeps going further and further out but the work is in Melbourne/Sydney and they're travelling in.

It would make more sense for people to live in apartments and build upwards rather than outwards.

You can get yourself a two bedroom apartment in Melbourne with a car space for $500K-$600K, it's cheaper than suburbia.

They keep on expanding suburbia South East and West.

Pakenham and Cranbourne are both considered a Melbourne suburb now and they're a long way South East.

Dandenong can take you two hours from Melbourne CBD and it's only 30km or so away from CBD in peak hour.

Yikes! So my last trip over that way I was wise to take the boat over and back (hang the cost!)

Which reminds me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU

[FairmontGS]

And another "boom" on the cards, but more led by real buyers this time...

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-...0190906-p52ok5

[Citroënbender]

I'm getting a "subscriber only" message for that last link.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by asagaai

I am working in Sydney on a matter- been in a 1 bedroom unit which is big with balcony near Newtown. Been here 3 days, another 1.5 weeks to go.

Although I can walk to Newtown I am already getting stir crazy- miss walking to beach in Newcastle and having lunch watching ocean, and being at home having air and balconies and watching sunsets over Watagan ranges and engaging with the Magpies and Kookaburras and watching Kites float over the rear cliff.

Some people like apartments and dense city life- I must be a country peasant....

Nothing wrong with peasants to me.
Horse's for course's as we all know.
I know people who reside where your staying atm that love it and wouldn't care to live or consider the peasant life as mentioned lol.......
All relative what your used to but depending what cycle your in life making any decent buck on property (especially on good cycles) if its your go the city is the the go full stop.....short and even better long term.
Peasant life is absolutely pleasant but just as the city everywhere has its limitations/positives/negatives.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Lending surges...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...estor/11491966

Banks loosening their lending criteria is drawing people back in.

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by asagaai

A major client of mine is getting me to hang 3 months for payment and after rattling and shaking the tree the fruit falls to me between 3 and 4 months post invoice.

Pretty depressing working **** off and laying out money knowing you have a 4 month wait...��

Not to mention maybe get payed.

C.O.D or tap an go type system now is the only way to go or you will get bitten and could loose everything you have when others just go bankrupt on you. I have seen so many get bitten with years of slaving away just wiped out.

One is much better off working for a wage any day with no worry's and they have their Super turning over and you don't have to work 7 days a week and you can even go on holidays.

There is no reason in the world not to be payed on the finish day of the job completed at all nowadays. the only reason for holding back is that the company one is dealing with is shoddy and nothing but a disgrace.

What if I said to all my workers that they will have to work for me and then have to wait 3 to 4 months before i payed them a wage not to mention holding back on them months of work on them and then go bankrupt and they just loose 3 months pay the great Australian dream ! that's why we fought WW2 for, so to become enslaved

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I'm getting a "subscriber only" message for that last link.

Clear your browser cache - you only get 5 free AFR articles per month I think.

[Polyal]

Does my head in when everyone gets excited about interest rates dropping.

Channeling my Year 10 Economics I was under the impression that dropping rates was a last resort to increase activity. Hurts people trying to live off investments but helps some get in.

New car sales are dropping, if it wasnt for the low dollar (a result of decrease confidence and other things) then we would be right up poo street.

I still dont know how the economy seems to bubble away, was expecting it to drop harder than it has.

May be biased working on the industry, but if mining slows up (due for a down turn from a cyclic POV) then look out IMO.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by asagaai

I am working in Sydney on a matter- been in a 1 bedroom unit which is big with balcony near Newtown. Been here 3 days, another 1.5 weeks to go.

Although I can walk to Newtown I am already getting stir crazy- miss walking to beach in Newcastle and having lunch watching ocean, and being at home having air and balconies and watching sunsets over Watagan ranges and engaging with the Magpies and Kookaburras and watching Kites float over the rear cliff.

Some people like apartments and dense city life- I must be a country peasant....

Mate of mine , his wife and two kids have relocated to a pokey 2 brm apartment in Hong Kong leaving behind their 5 brm house with yard and pool in Manly in Sydney. Says he loves HK and may never come back. Close to night life and restaurants, good expat schools The apartment costs about the AUD equivalent of around $4,000 a month but his employer is covering the cost. I can see the benefits of both lifestyles.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

...........There is no reason in the world not to be payed on the finish day of the job completed at all nowadays. the only reason for holding back is that the company one is dealing with is shoddy and nothing but a disgrace.

The reason they hold off paying is that they invest their money in overseas bonds/shares etc and having their money sitting in investments for close on 4 months earning a return = more profit for them as compared to paying me immediately.

Quote GT 0132 "Mate of mine , his wife and two kids have relocated to a pokey 2 brm apartment in Hong Kong leaving behind their 5 brm house with yard and pool in Manly in Sydney. Says he loves HK and may never come back. Close to night life and restaurants, good expat schools The apartment costs about the AUD equivalent of around $4,000 a month but his employer is covering the cost. I can see the benefits of both lifestyles. "

Just got back from Camperdown/Newton. Weird- now walking at night Asian cyclists - cycle deliveries outnumbering cars, and walking Newtown at night there is a sense of fractured dystopian urban life -felt like I was in a scene of blade runner.

All the Asian cyclists and weird colour shops brightly lit with strange groceries and all in Asian signage what you would see in Thailand outside major tourist areas.

Hopeless desperation in a lot of younger adults I chatted with - resigned to renting and that getting into property is impossible.

I like visiting Sydney but I also like getting in my car after a week and getting the heck out of there.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

It depends how you realistically live outside of work related activities as to whether the mythical quarter acre matters. I have always absolutely cherished and utilised my yards.

Indoors is where I go to eat, sleep, and when it’s too hard to do something outdoors in my prevailing conditions (eg, too dark, too wet, too sore/tired). The number of houses around me where you never see anyone engaged in outdoor activities, is quite significant. I don’t know if they are agoraphobic or see outdoorsy stuff as peasant life.

The only time I go outside is to get from house to the car, then from the car to my office at work

The 1500m2 we're on is wasted on me, but I live in Melbourne's outer rural fringe.

You've sort of got all the downsides of property with maintenance, but all the downsides of having annoying neighbors too - the only difference is I can't hear them rooting but I can hear their dogs barking and they don't like my loud car.

As much as I don't like the 'Australian Dream' of 1000m2 in outer suburbia - it probably makes sense to buy in areas like Sunbury where you can get your hands on it cheap enough on some run down crappy house, sit on it for 5-10 years renting it out then turn it into units as demand increases.

Don't buy to live, buy to make money out of it - you've got the capital once in your working career so make the first one count.

But at the end of the day we can't all be baristas and wanna-be developers, someone has to make something we can't keep on swapping overpriced property between ourselves and we can't all make overpriced and overrated coffee.

The last three months the auto repair industry has been VERY SLOW, people aren't fixing cars, my phones at work are hardly ringing and we're a couple hundred thousand bucks down year on year in sales 2017-2018 to 2018-2019.

The guys running their own shows for the past 30 years are worried, there isn't much going on.

Probably due for one of those recession things - dunno what they are hasn't happened in my lifetime

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

Not to mention maybe get payed.

C.O.D or tap an go type system now is the only way to go or you will get bitten and could loose everything you have when others just go bankrupt on you. I have seen so many get bitten with years of slaving away just wiped out.

One is much better off working for a wage any day with no worry's and they have their Super turning over and you don't have to work 7 days a week and you can even go on holidays.

There is no reason in the world not to be payed on the finish day of the job completed at all nowadays. the only reason for holding back is that the company one is dealing with is shoddy and nothing but a disgrace.

What if I said to all my workers that they will have to work for me and then have to wait 3 to 4 months before i payed them a wage not to mention holding back on them months of work on them and then go bankrupt and they just loose 3 months pay the great Australian dream ! that's why we fought WW2 for, so to become enslaved

Everything works on 30-60 day terms in business, cashflow is a drama.

Try doing work for insurance companies in the automotive industry, 120 day payment terms thats why the $$$ goes through the roof when someone starts talking insurance spondoolies - they don't get paid for yonks.

Practices like phoenixing etc.

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Everything works on 30-60 day terms in business, cashflow is a drama.

Try doing work for insurance companies in the automotive industry, 120 day payment terms thats why the $$$ goes through the roof when someone starts talking insurance spondoolies - they don't get paid for yonks.

Practices like phoenixing etc.

Yes but what I am saying is that their is no excuse for such at all and if business had a Union of sorts one would fight for a fair suck of the sav.

When the day comes that things go real bad it's going to be a train wreck and everyone is going to be involved in it all up the creek without a paddle.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

Yes but what I am saying is that their is no excuse for such at all and if business had a Union of sorts one would fight for a fair suck of the sav.

When the day comes that things go real bad it's going to be a train wreck and everyone is going to be involved in it all up the creek without a paddle.

good point agree and thats the million dollar question about yourself in life.
How much in debt do you really want to be ? stick your neck out to the proverbial, hey its either good luck in the good times and hopefully you put away more for the rainy day but when it goes bad you only have yourself to blame full stop if you haven't covered your butt.
Being conservative has its compromise's But your likely not to be up the creek without a paddle when that time comes compared to those who stuck their necks out - and get chopped.
I know where I have been all my life, less debt own as much as poss, win win.

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by FTE217

good point agree and thats the million dollar question about yourself in life.
How much in debt do you really want to be ? stick your neck out to the proverbial, hey its either good luck in the good times and hopefully you put away more for the rainy day but when it goes bad you only have yourself to blame full stop if you haven't covered your butt.
Being conservative has its compromise's But your likely not to be up the creek without a paddle when that time comes compared to those who stuck their necks out - and get chopped.
I know where I have been all my life, less debt own as much as poss, win win.

True and boy don't I know it !

I have seen many a fool in business and do real well and then end up loosing the lot and destroying everyone around them, oh boy I have seen them come to me crying and licking their wounds, but do they truly care about all who they destroyed no not at all really and that's a fact, they will make out that they do, but lets say I see one who went bankrupt on me and 10 or 20 years down the track and they are doing real well again would they give a thought about buying me a beer .

I have had Builders all the time crying for me to help them out, help help help me out, but would they ever lift a finger to help anyone out themselves never once have I seen it from when I started in my trade from 1971 noting but try and undermine and destroy all under them with every trick in the book.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

The supposed bubble has been expanding since the 1980's. Still has not burst.

Bought my first property in 1990 for $165K sold it for $375K in 2000, bought my next one for $265K sold in 2010 for 570K, bought my next one in 2015 for 165K, currently valued at 880K to a million.

Still waiting for the burst.

[MITCHAY]

Racking up my two year anniversary in my house on Sunday. I've paid off 30% now. I'm paying the same payments even though interest is going down. About $500 a week.

My mate at work says I'm bad for the economy but I drink and smoke so they're getting a **** load of tax outta me. $40 for a pack of durries these days

A lot of work and a lot of money but best thing I ever did if nothing else the peace and quiet is worth it. My only regret is was not getting in earlier in a better place.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Racking up my two year anniversary in my house on Sunday. I've paid off 30% now.

That's a good effort, I paid my first place off in 10 years, took a bit of doing but worth it in the end.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Hopeless desperation in a lot of younger adults I chatted with - resigned to renting and that getting into property is impossible.

Newtown is certainly not the place young people should be getting into the property market.

Mention Liverpool, Campbelltown or Auburn and they scoff, yet those places will have loan repayments for less than what they are probably paying in rent for less property in Newtown.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Polyal

New car sales are dropping, if it wasnt for the low dollar (a result of decrease confidence and other things) then we would be right up poo street.

My theory on car sales dropping is that we have had a decent run or new cars with 5 and 7 year warranties.

People probably holding onto their vehicle for longer to get what they can out of the warranty and spread out the depreciation.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

The supposed bubble has been expanding since the 1980's. Still has not burst.

Bought my first property in 1990 for $165K sold it for $375K in 2000, bought my next one for $265K sold in 2010 for 570K, bought my next one in 2015 for 165K, currently valued at 880K to a million.

Still waiting for the burst.

Just to confirm you bought it 4 years ago for $165k and now worth $880k to $1.0M ?

That’s bloody good appreciation or was it originally just a block of land you bought and then invested another $500k to put a nice home on it?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

The supposed bubble has been expanding since the 1980's. Still has not burst.

The 'bubble' didn't exist until late-90s onwards... a period of modest appreciation is not considered part of the bubble, the rapid appreciation well above trend, is.

Recessions have a habit of bursting bubbles, and this is the first time we've had anything that resembles one.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by b0son

The 'bubble' didn't exist until late-90s onwards... a period of modest appreciation is not considered part of the bubble, the rapid appreciation well above trend, is.

Recessions have a habit of bursting bubbles, and this is the first time we've had anything that resembles one.

Don't agree….even the recession we had to have in 1990-91 and the double digit interest rates that prevailed then wasn't enough to wipe out the gains made from the property boom of 1987-89 – a boom that was the catalyst for the introduction of anti-gazumping laws prior to which you could agree to sell a property then back out of the sale because some other person offered to pay you (enter a number here) grand more for it.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by GT0132

Don't agree….even the recession we had to have in 1990-91 and the double digit interest rates that prevailed then wasn't enough to wipe out the gains made from the property boom of 1987-89

In Sydney at least, rental yields then were double what they are now, and the vacancy rate was also 3-4 times lower... the only thing that seems to be driving sales is cheap credit, not investment performance.