Australia housing bubble

[MercuryT]

As per the other thread I actually sold mine 2 weeks ago.

Purely as I think the market is going to take a big hit which hasn't been realised yet.

Who knows though, in any case it was time for me to move on. I just sped things up into overdrive to get it done.......

[MITCHAY]

Well since I have been here less than 3 years I've had other units in the complex go for 60k, 100k and 110k over what I paid for mine.

I was thinking you beauty because mine is bigger, open plan and has basically a backyard.

Then they sold one for only 10k more this month.

I don't know the circumstances obviously but given they had over 100k for the past two this year seems strange. But we will have to see how it goes.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Housing in the 3 east coast capitals is about 60% overvalued, supported by unsustainable immigration, domestic and overseas investors.

If you can be bothered charting average wage vs average house price in sydney for example it started in the 80's and has been getting worse ever since, apart from a hiatus after the recession in 1990. Cashed up boomers started it and then it became a contagion.

The lack of recessions is also a fallacy. Growth has been due entirely to ridiculous immigration levels. The highest rate in the OECD for almost 20 years now.

At some point the bubble has to burst, but I have been amazed for about 15 years now how it's managed to keep going. The small retraction about a decade ago was not nearly enough. Now finally with the virus maybe enough oxygen will be cut off for Australia's economy to get a forced reset, but who knows. Maybe we will just keep borrowing forever.

Incidentally real estate across Australia is cheap. You can buy a house in NSW or Qld for $80k sometimes less. Land can be had for $10k, but people would rather spend 1 mill in sydney and enslave themselves to a bank for life... bizarre...

Agreed on how our market has kept sound since the GFC for eg, I've been waiting on the bubble to burst, who hasn't but - we've had some minor down turns that have effected properties in surburbia but there is always pockets that went down half what other areas suffer.
Is covid the bubble buster ? we shall see soon enough.
Covid is the migration show "stopper" - no way are we going to see the numbers comign to settle here for the next 1 maybe 2.
Someone quoted Sydney is OTT but you need to put Melb side by side nowadays.
Pricing around the city is near on as bad.
Also quizzis3 re you Boomer mention investing, straight after boomers is the owner builder turned developer who have been young fellas when started kicking butt for the last 20yrs, you only have to look at the number of duplex's - house flipping after a reno within months/1yr has been huge !
Boomers may have started it but those that followed have done even more imo.
How many young well off Tradie types do you see in C63's/M5/X this ML that.

One thing I'm hoping for is for those 1st home buyers in ready to pounce on these predicted drops soon to come, and good luck to them grab it with both hands.
Me too, waiting on grabbing a so called bargain BUT we shall see eh.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Within reason you need to live where the work is.

The other way to get around this is to stop investing in the cities are push companies out to regional areas or atleast 2-3 hours form the capitals.

Build some decent highways (up the speed limits) and stop relying on these hubs.

Bendigo is reasonably priced, you can pick up houses for sub $400K.

The problem is most of Victoria works in Melbourne and its a 300km return trip - and Bendigo's ****ty weather where its like 750 degrees in summer

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Bendigo is reasonably priced, you can pick up houses for sub $400K.

The problem is most of Victoria works in Melbourne and its a 300km return trip - and Bendigo's ****ty weather where its like 750 degrees in summer

Welcome to Bendigo.
They only have 2 seasons miserably hot or miserably cold.
Wangs known locally as "Little London."

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Bendigo is reasonably priced, you can pick up houses for sub $400K.

The problem is most of Victoria works in Melbourne and its a 300km return trip - and Bendigo's ****ty weather where its like 750 degrees in summer

Yeah so Bendigo, Ballarat etc all could do with some manufacturing out there and some incentives so people dont need to commute.

Not saying we start doing it all over the country, and definitely not just Govco. needs to be private industrial/commercial offering blue and white collar options.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Yeah so Bendigo, Ballarat etc all could do with some manufacturing out there and some incentives so people dont need to commute.

Not saying we start doing it all over the country, and definitely not just Govco. needs to be private industrial/commercial offering blue and white collar options.

While I don't think fast rail is viable for interstate travel as we have good airport infrastructure between capital cities.

It would work well between regional capitals within Victoria, think of Melbourne CBD to Geelong, Traralgon, Ballarat, Bendigo and Albury - trains capable of 400km/h or there abouts. You could reasonably quickly get to Melbourne for work.

But yes Govco should incentivise business to move away from the CBD or suburbs - Bendigo has Thales but business there seems to find they'll put on 457 Visas or graduates then the kids or migrants will move to Melbourne post experience.

I've got three ideas im looking into:

A) 1 bedroom apartment in Melbourne northern suburbs
B) Bendigo region for unit/small house
C) Adelaide - Mt Barker or Elizabeth region low socioeconomic-ville

I don't want to have a huge mortgage over my head.

The only problem with Adelaide is getting work, I could probably transfer across to my Adelaide branch at work but that's if it's still around in a few years time as it's not going really well.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Yeah so Bendigo, Ballarat etc all could do with some manufacturing out there and some incentives so people dont need to commute.

Not saying we start doing it all over the country, and definitely not just Govco. needs to be private industrial/commercial offering blue and white collar options.

There is still a fair bit of manufacturing in country Vic.

Shepparton has Furphy Foundries, Shepparton Packing Company, Clarke tanks.

Benalla, has the Victorian rail infrastructure projects based there, Thales munitions, Schneider electrics, air glider manufacturing,

Bendigo has Hazeldene, Barker Trailers, Thales again, BRW (Bendigo railway workshops)

Ballarat has Oliver boots, Maxitrans, Australian furniture makers, Bartlett tank liners

Just to name a few.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It would work well between regional capitals within Victoria, think of Melbourne CBD to Geelong, Traralgon, Ballarat, Bendigo and Albury - trains capable of 400km/h or there abouts. You could reasonably quickly get to Melbourne for work.

.

never going to happen, Franco.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

never going to happen, Franco.

Under a Government I lead we will commit $500M for a report into fast rail which we won't implement .

One can dream 🤩

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Under a Government I lead we will commit $500M for a report into fast rail which we won't implement .

One can dream ��

Umm, 500M might get you to Craigeburn

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Umm, 500M might get you to Craigeburn

I said 'report' not 'infrastructure'

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I said 'report' not 'infrastructure'

I meant report

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Within reason you need to live where the work is.

The other way to get around this is to stop investing in the cities are push companies out to regional areas or atleast 2-3 hours form the capitals.

Build some decent highways (up the speed limits) and stop relying on these hubs.

Governments have paid lip service to this as long as I can remember but the only concrete attempt I've seen was the incentives for companies to move out to Parramatta.

Government can't control what private business does, but they do control teh public service. If it were me I'd move all PS jobs to regions apart from those that can demonstrate a compelling need to remain in the cities. I'd also canvas towns who might want to host gaols for the jobs and move those along with all public housing west of the great dividing range.

But again of course it'll never happen.

Sydney housing market isn't driven by jobs as much as it's driven by investors. The capitol gains have outstripped since the 80's.

As for water it varies from place to place. If they have enough for irrigation they have enough for humans.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Governments have paid lip service to this as long as I can remember but the only concrete attempt I've seen was the incentives for companies to move out to Parramatta.

Government can't control what private business does, but they do control teh public service. If it were me I'd move all PS jobs to regions apart from those that can demonstrate a compelling need to remain in the cities. I'd also canvas towns who might want to host gaols for the jobs and move those along with all public housing west of the great dividing range.

But again of course it'll never happen.

Sydney housing market isn't driven by jobs as much as it's driven by investors. The capitol gains have outstripped since the 80's.

As for water it varies from place to place. If they have enough for irrigation they have enough for humans.

I remember in the 80s 90's a few gov depts. moving out to Parkes, Bathurst regions and the PS complaining they would be forever locked out of the Sydney housing market. Don't know how many actually made the move.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I've got three ideas im looking into:

A) 1 bedroom apartment in Melbourne northern suburbs
B) Bendigo region for unit/small house
C) Adelaide - Mt Barker or Elizabeth region low socioeconomic-ville

I don't want to have a huge mortgage over my head.

The only problem with Adelaide is getting work, I could probably transfer across to my Adelaide branch at work but that's if it's still around in a few years time as it's not going really well.

You are looking to move ? What sort of work and what's your budget ?

Plenty of cheap RE in seq.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I remember in the 80s 90's a few gov depts. moving out to Parkes, Bathurst regions and the PS complaining they would be forever locked out of the Sydney housing market. Don't know how many actually made the move.

If it were me it'd be all out and apply for your jobs in this new place, and at a 40% pay cut. PS salaries are a disgrace.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

You are looking to move ? What sort of work and what's your budget ?

Plenty of cheap RE in seq.

Wouldn't work for Franco, he wants a place where the maximum summer temp is 18c.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Wouldn't work for Franco, he wants a place where the maximum summer temp is 18c.

Agree, last time I was in Brisbane it was 13 degrees in winter and people were rugged up like Eskimos, 13 degrees is nice!



I was wearing a t-shirt at work yesterday, that was the weather on the way into the office.

I start dying in temperatures over 25 degrees

I work in manufacturing industry in customer service

I probably wouldn't move to QLD as I don't like humidity or warm weather, Adelaide is a bit warmer than Melbourne but it still has nice cool weather.

Ideally I wouldn't want to spend over $400K, I'm not looking to buy yet, probably 2022 or there abouts.

With Melbourne I want to stay around Northern suburbs - this is in a mint spot, its right on a restaurant strip:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...drie-131881550

This is another on the contender list - but its in a dodgy part of town in that its right around the corner from reffo central but its only 4km from the CBD with the 59 tram stopping right out front:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...core-133572374

They're both right next to major freeways as well which is convenient, in the case of Niddrie its near 3 major freeways - Calder, Western Ring Road and Tullamarine Freeway.

The only problem I have with apartments is that I always have two cars - one would have to live out on the street or I'd have to kick in for another car parking spot.

[Franco Cozzo]

And I imagine my new neighbors would be salty over the lebonator rattling the walls of their apartment when it starts up deep within the concrete bowels of the complex

[Trendseeker]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I remember in the 80s 90's a few gov depts. moving out to Parkes, Bathurst regions and the PS complaining they would be forever locked out of the Sydney housing market. Don't know how many actually made the move.

Yes, the Central Mapping Authority was one of the NSW government departments that was part of the decentralisation program. Their building was on the opposite side of the road to Charles Sturt Uni/Mitchell College.

https://www.bathurst.nsw.gov.au/comm...alisation.html

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Trendseeker

Yes, the Central Mapping Authority was one of the NSW government departments that was part of the decentralisation program. Their building was on the opposite side of the road to Charles Sturt Uni/Mitchell College.

https://www.bathurst.nsw.gov.au/comm...alisation.html

The Dept of Agriculture & All It's related Entities have relocated to Orange Too.

[MercuryT]

I bailed.

Can't see how market can increase.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Under a Government I lead we will commit $500M for a report into fast rail which we won't implement .

One can dream 🤩

Will you make places "Of ill repute" tax deductible ?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Will you make places "Of ill repute" tax deductible ?

They already are if you have a good accountant

[Yellow_Festiva]

Well, they are considering removing stamp duty and land tax for the short term?

Wonder how that will help?

Just great, got to keep my place after my divorce and the valuation was done at the very peak of the market a few years ago (bigger payout for her based on values as a percentage).

Now that I have almost finished the place and want to sell it seems I may have lost quite a bit.

Having said that, buying and selling in the same time frame sorta helps.

If there is a 'second wave' with another round of tough restrictions and more job losses we are all royally fornicated....

[guzzis3]

The humidity is terrible at my place, but brisbane is actually cooler than sydney in summer (and warmer in winter). I spent years looking for somewhere to move. Looked all along the nsw coast, considered victoria (not melbourne, has the worst weather in the country as well as all the other problems) and looked seriously at NZ.

I concluded the gold coast hinterland is the place. Relatively cheap and one of teh most mild places in qld. Stanthorpe etc do get cold in winter but summer temps are really manageable on the GC in summer.

The problem of course is work. Some people can find work on the coast, lots don't and commute to brisbane on THAT road. Hence a lot of GC residents are retired and it all keeps prices down. I wouldn't live on the coast, it's a vice and bogan riddled slum with a few nice spots thrown in, but the hinterland is off radar and you could probably live nicely there. It's also a couple of degrees colder all year round.

People want too much for land up there atm but if I see the right block well priced I'll jump, build and settle. It will be my last home so it has to be right.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Agree, last time I was in Brisbane it was 13 degrees in winter and people were rugged up like Eskimos, 13 degrees is nice!

image

I was wearing a t-shirt at work yesterday, that was the weather on the way into the office.

I start dying in temperatures over 25 degrees

I work in manufacturing industry in customer service

I probably wouldn't move to QLD as I don't like humidity or warm weather, Adelaide is a bit warmer than Melbourne but it still has nice cool weather.

Ideally I wouldn't want to spend over $400K, I'm not looking to buy yet, probably 2022 or there abouts.

With Melbourne I want to stay around Northern suburbs - this is in a mint spot, its right on a restaurant strip:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...drie-131881550

This is another on the contender list - but its in a dodgy part of town in that its right around the corner from reffo central but its only 4km from the CBD with the 59 tram stopping right out front:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...core-133572374

They're both right next to major freeways as well which is convenient, in the case of Niddrie its near 3 major freeways - Calder, Western Ring Road and Tullamarine Freeway.

The only problem I have with apartments is that I always have two cars - one would have to live out on the street or I'd have to kick in for another car parking spot.

Victor Harbor, or Port Elliot is where you want to be Franco, constant 5* cooler than Adelaide in summer and only an hour to the CBD, spent two weekends in a row down there at the end of Feb, beginning of March and it was perfect.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Victor Harbor, or Port Elliot is where you want to be Franco, constant 5* cooler than Adelaide in summer and only an hour to the CBD, spent two weekends in a row down there at the end of Feb, beginning of March and it was perfect.

They're a bit far from Adelaide, about 80km.

I guess at the end of the day it's not far but it puts your daily commute at circa 160-200km per day driving to and from Adelaide depending on where you're working.

I've actually stayed in this complex a couple of times, I don't mind these, it's gated and there's an undercover car spot:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...aide-133314506

Its right around the corner from a bunch of sweet restaurants, a shopping centre and a cinema too - North Adelaide apartment is a contender for me.

This is good too:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...aide-133318522

Or Northern Suburbs:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...park-133492710

I also like Osborne - its only a main street in from the beach, I think its Victoria Road which is a main strip, its a bit beaten up and run down but it looks like its in an alright spot from the couple of times I've ended up wondering around there.

How good is Adelaide, its only Northern or Southern suburbs

Whats the consensus - is there elitism like with Melbourne how the South/Eastern side thinks they're better than anyone West or North of the Yarra even though they've got the majority of the Sudos and have the worst traffic congestion?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I've actually stayed in this complex a couple of times, I don't mind these, it's gated

Sounds perfect for you.