Covid 19 -

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by russellw

The UK had a higher 2,685 cases yesterday and 17 deaths.

Is UK going back up Russ? What's the trend?

Thanks

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

The critical current failing in WA is they have decided in their wisdom to leave infections people across the corridor from non. That is dumb, has been discovered elsewhere and addressed.

Agreed with everything you've said. And yes its dumb. But if its happening in GOLD standard, what hope has the rest got?

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...27-p57mqw.html

"Genomic sequencing last week revealed their infection was the same as the infections of two family members who were staying in accommodation next door before being moved to Special Health Accommodation after testing positive.

Although the three returned travellers flew into Sydney on the same plane from Kuala Lumpur, they all tested negative to the virus on day two of their stay, prompting an investigation into whether the virus had been transmitted within the hotel."

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by russellw

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 27th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

23 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.062%.

8 new cases and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.997% and active cases 36.

The UK had a higher 2,685 cases yesterday and 17 deaths.

Just over 48.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 342 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 149M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Asia sets a new daily case high of 489,419;
India sets a new global high with 362,902 cases;
Europe passes 44M cases;
Asia passes 0.5M deaths

Only -
Maldives (386);
Réunion (1,038);
Sri Lanka (1,111);
Costa Rica (1,927); and
India (362,902)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and none drop below.

Yep.. again, scary stuff... Our highest ever total., remembering our population is similar to Victorias! (Imagine Vic recording just on 2000 new cases in a day?...

[Citroënbender]

Social distancing or whatever people may call to choose it, is breaking down.

I was one of three in a large lift today - probably reduced capacity of 4 persons, couldn’t see the signage - then it was crammed by another six people. We didn’t quite need the Japanese train conductors in white gloves to do the pushing, but it felt squeezy.

So - next time the zombies escape in Sydney - it could get busy really fast…

[DJR-351]

Social distancing lol

Go to the airport and very second seat says you can't sit there, must keep an empty seat between each person, everyone has to ware a face mask at all times except eating, every store has a sign saying how many allowed in a any one time, PA systems repeating over and over about social distancing and wearing your mask etc etc.....

Then they cram you in shoulder to shoulder in a plane.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Is UK going back up Russ? What's the trend?

Thanks

Hard to say just yet. The 10-day average is 2,369 but 6 of the last 10 have been above that, however, the previous 10-day average was 2,560 so at least it has improved slightly.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Agreed with everything you've said. And yes its dumb. But if its happening in GOLD standard, what hope has the rest got?

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...27-p57mqw.html

"Genomic sequencing last week revealed their infection was the same as the infections of two family members who were staying in accommodation next door before being moved to Special Health Accommodation after testing positive.

Although the three returned travellers flew into Sydney on the same plane from Kuala Lumpur, they all tested negative to the virus on day two of their stay, prompting an investigation into whether the virus had been transmitted within the hotel."

Yes it is not perfect, but if they are moved earlier at least you are reducing a risk as soon as you can. I would say they more likely got it in quarantine than on the plane, but it is a pure guess due to being “next door”

[T3rminator]

Well its just been announced that Howard Springs will increase its capacity from 800 to 2000. Worth noting Howard Springs is currently under the care of the feds, who have contracted the management out to specialists NCCTRC and AUSMAT. These guys have been called the "ninjas" of prevention and containment. This is how it SHOULD be done IMHO, but these guys don't come cheap.

The plan is to handover to the NT gov at some stage. But already they are anticipating problems with attracting enough skilled staff to do the job.



Meanwhile, I recall MITCHAY saying ACT quarantine will now be done by NSW.

Diplomat drives to Canberra to isolate at home before testing positive to COVID-19

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...e19e255e495e74

[FairmontGS]

It's just a tragedy...

India COVID surge sees oxygen, medicine sold on black market

As India awaits foreign assistance and its fragile health system heaves under the weight of daily record coronavirus cases, dire shortages of oxygen and drugs have seen prices spike on the black market.

In Patna, a city in the northeastern state of Bihar, Pranay Punj ran from one pharmacy to another in a frantic search for remdesivir for his seriously ill mum.

He finally located a pharmacist who said the drug could only be found on the black market and offered to source it for an eye-popping 100,000 rupees ($1,730), over 30 times its usual price and three times the average monthly salary for an Indian white-collar worker.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...rket/100099904

[Tickford.]

I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?

I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married??

Hmmmm...

[FairmontGS]

And more

India surpasses 200,000 COVID deaths as health system buckles under virus surge

Bodies of COVID-19 victims lay burning on Tuesday in funeral pyres cramming New Delhi's sidewalks and car parks amid an explosion of new cases, as foreign aid began arriving.

"People are just dying, dying and dying," said Jitender Singh Shanty, who is coordinating more than 100 cremations per day at the site in the east of the city.

"If we get more bodies then we will cremate on the road. There is no more space here," he said, adding: "We had never thought that we would see such horrible scenes."

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/india-su...er-virus-surge

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Well its just been announced that Howard Springs will increase its capacity from 800 to 2000. Worth noting Howard Springs is currently under the care of the feds, who have contracted the management out to specialists NCCTRC and AUSMAT. These guys have been called the "ninjas" of prevention and containment. This is how it SHOULD be done IMHO, but these guys don't come cheap.

The plan is to handover to the NT gov at some stage. But already they are anticipating problems with attracting enough skilled staff to do the job.



Meanwhile, I recall MITCHAY saying ACT quarantine will now be done by NSW.

Diplomat drives to Canberra to isolate at home before testing positive to COVID-19

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...e19e255e495e74

Diplomats are exempt from hotel quarantine and have been doing this the whole time.

To clarify we are not taking anymore repatriation flights since we have only a few hundred residents left so will reimburse other states the costs at port of entry.

There are currently no commercial international flights here at the moment so unless they want to bus or fly passangers down here we have no use for the program.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

It's just a tragedy...

India COVID surge sees oxygen, medicine sold on black market

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...rket/100099904

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

And more

India surpasses 200,000 COVID deaths as health system buckles under virus surge

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/india-su...er-virus-surge

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcbR1J_4ICg

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Diplomats are exempt from hotel quarantine and have been doing this the whole time.

To clarify we are not taking anymore repatriation flights since we have only a few hundred residents left so will reimburse other states the costs at port of entry.

There are currently no commercial international flights here at the moment so unless they want to bus or fly passangers down here we have no use for the program.

Fair enough. Can you get some pfizer for some of us southerners? I'm guessing they aren't checking eligibility, if you rock up you get the shot?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...arly/100098780

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?

I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married??

Hmmmm...

I reckon this is a fair call. The numbers coming out of India aren't even close, I'm hearing on ABC some officials are saying it could be 15 times worse. When you have an uncontrollable flood of cases and deaths its pretty hard to keep count. I'm sure these numbers will get revised, just as they did in the UK after their wave. If you look at the hotel quarantine cases and the spikes, its not a hard choice for the feds.

The sad thing is, I can't see how they are going to turn this around. Unlike the US or UK, environmental factors makes India far far worse. What is happening in India now is what the world feared would happen in Africa at the beginning. Question, what is Modi doing about it? He declared victory over covid 3 months ago. Election coming up in a few days.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?

...

I stand to be corrected but I can't remember any country having the same daily infection rate as India has atm?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?

I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married??

Hmmmm...

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/wap....2600747_1.html



more positives than any daily total from any country. Scarier, 25% positive rate on those tested. Their real numbers must be over a million a day. You may have to give Scotty an attaboy this time.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Fair enough. Can you get some pfizer for some of us southerners? I'm guessing they aren't checking eligibility, if you rock up you get the shot?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...arly/100098780

I have no idea how it works here. I know I'm not eligible for a long time yet so don't even worry about it all

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by zilo

I stand to be corrected but I can't remember any country having the same daily infection rate as India has atm?

Between the end of December 2020 to end of January 2021, the USA was recording almost 300'000 new cases per day. Over 300'000 on a couple of days if I'm not mistaken. India was about the same figure when Scotty decided to pull the plug.

India has since recorded the highest number per day. A few thousand more than the USA record. But the question still has to be asked. Why shut off India only, when the USA was in a similar position in January of this year?

[buggerlugs]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...25e367ea445efa

Some media are saying the 55 year old was fit and healthy, others are saying he had a pre existing condition..........

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?

I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married??

Hmmmm...

Fact check. No other country has had the daily case numbers that India is currently experiencing.

The USA peaked at 297k and had a 10 day period where the average was over 240k/day before rapidly dropping.

The UK peaked at 68k and had a 10 day period where the average was 57k/day before gradually dropping.

India has had a peak (thus far) of 362k cases yesterday and a 10 day average of 320k/day.

In fairness, the cases / 100k of population peaks were much worse for some other countries than India:

India is peaking at about 26/100k; Brazil peaked at 58/100k; the USA at 90/100k and the UK at almost 100/100k.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Between the end of December 2020 to end of January 2021, the USA was recording almost 300'000 new cases per day. Over 300'000 on a couple of days if I'm not mistaken. India was about the same figure when Scotty decided to pull the plug.

India has since recorded the highest number per day. A few thousand more than the USA record. But the question still has to be asked. Why shut off India only, when the USA was in a similar position in January of this year?

The USA never got over 300k and as I stated above their 10 day worst average was also well below that of India but that's irrelevant really.

I think what it comes down to is the confidence level around India getting some control over the spread which there is no sign of thus far. Despite some not unreasonable doubts during the Trump era, there was always some confidence that the USA would get a better grip on it eventually - and their case numbers now support that confidence.

I've long been concerned that the numbers coming out of India were a bit light in terms of deaths as their CMR has been sitting around 1.1% - well below the global average of 2.1% with similarly developed countries averaging 2.2% but then we also know that in this current wave both case and mortality numbers are being understated.

[T3rminator]

Some positive news just coming in. BOJO has done very well despite screwing up the CV19 response in the beginning. Any chance we can learn from it?

Seven in 10 British adults have COVID antibodies as herd immunity nears
https://www.theage.com.au/world/euro...29-p57nbe.html

"The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 68 per cent of adults now have some level of protection against the virus, either from vaccination or a prior infection.

The level has risen by one third in a month while infections have waned, meaning much of the upswing can be credited to Britain’s vaccine rollout."

[T3rminator]

Interesting, is tickford a writer for the Guardian? ....although I suspect the authorities here know the numbers are far higher, and also what Russell showed, hence the decision.

Comparing US and UK Covid case numbers suggests Australia’s India flight ban based on ‘fear factor’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-fear-factor

[FairmontGS]

Yes, plenty of reasons to suspect that India is much worse than UK, USA, etc.

COVID-19: India crematoriums 'underreporting bodies' as suspicion grows over true number of coronavirus deaths

https://news.sky.com/story/india-cre...eaths-12288828

Are Indian statistics understating covid-19 cases and deaths?

https://www.economist.com/the-econom...ses-and-deaths

India’s Uncounted COVID-19 Deaths

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ovid-19-deaths

India grieves 200,000 dead with many more probably uncounted

https://www.9news.com.au/world/india...3-c7099a2d91ca

[Polyal]

The under reporting may not be intentional, they are literally out of control, poor sods its hard to imagine and take in.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 28th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

32 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.059%.

1 new case and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.996% and active cases 27.

The UK had a lower 2,166 cases yesterday and 29 deaths.

Just over 52k new cases in the USA yesterday and 994 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 150M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Global deaths pass 3.15M, the last 50k in 4 days;
Asia sets a new daily case high of 508,025;
India sets a new global high with 379,459 cases;
India passes 18M cases and 200k deaths;
Asia passes 38M cases.

Trinidad & Tobago (223);
Cabo Verde (409);
Maldives (464);
Cambodia (698);
Sri Lanka (1,466) - 32% above yesterdays high;
Costa Rica (2,434); and
India (379,459)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Latvia moves above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and Bosnia drops below.

[russellw]

I think the under-reporting of deaths has been systemic from the start based on them only recording those who had a confirmed diagnoses prior to their death. It's worse than the UK model that only counts those who didn't have 'probably fatal' co-morbidities and even their CMR is 2.8%.

Indeed, countries that have done a lot of testing (Australia, Italy the USA) are all well above the Indian CMR (two of those above 3%) and we know that high testing volumes tend to reduce CMR so with only 20% of the population tested you would expect the Indian CMR to be much higher.

Even Russia, which we already know has been under-reporting deaths by a lot has a CMR more than twice that of India and if we add the 100k deaths that allegedly haven't been reported then it's more than 3x worse.

The global average of a little over 2% should be read as very much an absolute rough guide only and any countries significantly below that treated with at least some disbelief.

I've been studying this data for a long time now and here is my 10 cents worth of opinion -

IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND can manage the spread effectively AND you keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 0.8-1.3% which is about where NZ, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Luxembourg and Norway are sitting.

IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, BUT don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 2.0-3.0% which is about where Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Belgium are sitting.

IF you DON'T have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have reasonable levels of testing; then the real CMR is likely to be ~4% which is about where Russia (really), Bosnia and Bulgaria are sitting. I suspect India is in that category too.

Drilling down on India. There is a huge disparity across the various States in India in terms of case numbers per 100k of population with some reporting as low as 200/100k through to 2,100/100k at the upper end with the average being 1,300/100k. Most other countries with decent test volumes are in the 3-6k/100k bracket with plenty well over 10k/100k.

With only 20% of the population tested, it is likely the real number of infections is orders of magnitude higher. Even if we work on the higher 2,100/100k figure and extrapolate that across the entire country we go from 18M cases to 28M cases but if we use a median point of 3k/100k than that total rises to 41M cases.

That tends to suggest (at a somewhat conservative 3%) the real death toll is somewhere between 850k and 1.2M, not the currently reported 200k but it will probably be 2 years before we get even a vaguely clearer picture and even that will still be under-reported.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

And more

India surpasses 200,000 COVID deaths as health system buckles under virus surge

For some perspective, after doing some research India seems to have a death rate of around 7.3 people per 1,000 per year.

If my maths is correct that tells me that there are a little under 10 million deaths per year.

Or, around 189,000 deaths per week.

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by russellw

Maldives (464);
Cambodia (698);
Sri Lanka(1,466) - 32% above yesterdays high;Costa Rica (2,434); and
India (379,459)

Not surprised to see Maldives enter this list. In fact I went looking to see after reading that big numbers of India's rich are choosing there to escape to.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Not surprised to see Maldives enter this list. In fact I went looking to see after reading that big numbers of India's rich are choosing there to escape to.

Oh?
I thought India's rich were fleeing using their dual nationality documents to "come home" to ......Australia.