Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Will be interesting to see the containment measures, hopefully nothing to OTT and then test and control..show Vic it is possible to not shut the whole place down.

No need to show or prove to us anything. My only advice is don't gamble. Letting the virus run for weeks on end has not proven to be a better strategy economically.

Next week Vic should be pretty much back to near normal, with the exception of mass sporting crowds. Done and dusted in 4 weeks. The vic public should make an extra effort to support small businesses in the coming months. e.g. avoid asking for a refund or to suspend gym memberships if you can.

[T3rminator]

Big call on AZ just now. To be given to over 60s only is the new advice. More TTS have been reported. Its curious why the UK didn't seem to have this issue, or was it not reported?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Big call on AZ just now. To be given to over 60s only is the new advice. More TTS have been reported. Its curious why the UK didn't seem to have this issue, or was it not reported?

They just Keep Calm and Carry On

We just Carry on

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

No need to show or prove to us anything. My only advice is don't gamble. Letting the virus run for weeks on end has not proven to be a better strategy economically.

Next week Vic should be pretty much back to near normal, with the exception of mass sporting crowds. Done and dusted in 4 weeks. The vic public should make an extra effort to support small businesses in the coming months. e.g. avoid asking for a refund or to suspend gym memberships if you can.

Don't think so, far from it.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

No need to show or prove to us anything. My only advice is don't gamble. Letting the virus run for weeks on end has not proven to be a better strategy economically.

Next week Vic should be pretty much back to near normal, with the exception of mass sporting crowds. Done and dusted in 4 weeks. The vic public should make an extra effort to support small businesses in the coming months. e.g. avoid asking for a refund or to suspend gym memberships if you can.

On what basis do you say that, in the context of Australia?

Id love to know how (if at all) the economic impact of these lockdowns is reported on.

BTW I have no allegiance to any particular state and not interested in border relations in the slightest.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Will be interesting to see the containment measures, hopefully nothing to OTT and then test and control..show MELBOURNE it is possible to not shut the whole place down.

Fixed.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

On what basis do you say that, in the context of Australia?

Id love to know how (if at all) the economic impact of these lockdowns is reported on.

BTW I have no allegiance to any particular state and not interested in border relations in the slightest.

Based on the recent economic data released. Perhaps a more accurate picture will play out in 12 to 24 months time, but based on data available to date, I can't see how the only state that has not gone into strict lockdowns has faired better than every other state that has, economically. Just a few points to note, everyone predicted Vic would fall off a cliff when jobkeeper went, and after a series of the harshest and longest of lock downs, it didn't. Take a look at the CBA state of state report and see how each state is fairing. The northern beaches outbreak cost the economy $3.4b, and that was from the NSW government's own treasury estimates, it didn't come at no cost.

My point is that all outbreaks hurt. The "let it run, roll the dice, and hope it doesn't spread" mentality has not proven to be better than having snap lock downs, it is not supported by the economic data made available. If NSW does turn out to be doing 2 or 3 times better than everyone else, I'm happy to change my mind.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Just in time for school holidays too. When and where is the next state of origin?

I don't follow NSW news much, but just heard a tidbit that NSW police might be investigating the driver. What has he done to warrant an investigation?

you don't follow nsw much
quote about Nth Beachs infections and the un confirmed strain how many times
The GSS's through some posts
Lockdown compared to wait before you jump
and now the economies of each
yer right you don't follow much.
I'm sure you'll post up about the police investigation once released just for another oh it wasn't me but look at this.
Talk about the hairs on your back lifting up re State vs State but oh I don't keep tabs on things lol.....turn it up T3, I'm sure your an ok bloke but damn you carry on like the media at times.

Comments from a fellow melbournian today,
"There's an exodus from Melbourne going on as we speak.

In the past 12 months 9000 families have relocated out of the Melb metro area alone.

Occupancy rates in CBD offices are at all time lows, businesses have discovered WFH saves them a fortune in rent, and providing hot desks allows them to down size when people have to come to the office.


To be honest the Melb CBD is a ghost town compared to pre covid and it's now quite noticeable the amount of vagrants and undesirables that call it home, on top of the unprecedented number of boarded up shop fronts from businesses that didnt survive...

On top of that a Mayor/council obsessed with eliminating cars from the roads, making it incredibly frustrating and difficult to get in there now anyway.

I can't see it ever recovering."

This is what your Lockdowns is doing plus add in the mental health issues that hardly get reported but people soldier on, wonder when that knock effect surfaces in time.
The recent flooding, a friend hasn't had power to date.
Oh but our economy is better and prove us wrong
Mate the big diff were living - outdoors and everyone is busy as.
Glad we don't have a Gov like your Danism for in the big picture more or less money we're getting on with covid life.
Economies, you bring it up for the score card
Sorry forthe countless good Melbournites having to convince themselves their on a good thing.

[FairmontGS]

OK... let me work this out. So a 3 week lockdown of 1/20th of the GSS capital's suburbia cost $3.4b. So how much did LD1-4 cost in Victoria? $20b? $30b? $50b?

Either I'm a thicky or something isn't making sense is it?

[Citroënbender]

NSW residents are more gruntled.

I hope the Limousiners recover quickly and without complications.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FTE217

you don't follow nsw much
quote about Nth Beachs infections and the un confirmed strain how many times
The GSS's through some posts
Lockdown compared to wait before you jump
and now the economies of each
yer right you don't follow much.
I'm sure you'll post up about the police investigation once released just for another oh it wasn't me but look at this.
Talk about the hairs on your back lifting up re State vs State but oh I don't keep tabs on things lol.....turn it up T3, I'm sure your an ok bloke but damn you carry on like the media at times.

Comments from a fellow melbournian today,
"There's an exodus from Melbourne going on as we speak.

In the past 12 months 9000 families have relocated out of the Melb metro area alone.

Occupancy rates in CBD offices are at all time lows, businesses have discovered WFH saves them a fortune in rent, and providing hot desks allows them to down size when people have to come to the office.


To be honest the Melb CBD is a ghost town compared to pre covid and it's now quite noticeable the amount of vagrants and undesirables that call it home, on top of the unprecedented number of boarded up shop fronts from businesses that didnt survive...

On top of that a Mayor/council obsessed with eliminating cars from the roads, making it incredibly frustrating and difficult to get in there now anyway.

I can't see it ever recovering."

This is what your Lockdowns is doing plus add in the mental health issues that hardly get reported but people soldier on, wonder when that knock effect surfaces in time.
The recent flooding, a friend hasn't had power to date.
Oh but our economy is better and prove us wrong
Mate the big diff were living - outdoors and everyone is busy as.
Glad we don't have a Gov like your Danism for in the big picture more or less money we're getting on with covid life.
Economies, you bring it up for the score card
Sorry forthe countless good Melbournites having to convince themselves their on a good thing.

Wow triggered. This just sounds like a rant and rambling with a bunch of misinformation thrown in, so my only response is......

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

OK... let me work this out. So a 3 week lockdown of 1/20th of the GSS capital's suburbia cost $3.4b. So how much did LD1-4 cost in Victoria? $20b? $30b? $50b?

Either I'm a thicky or something isn't making sense is it?

Show me cost and recovery data. Show me current state of play. Show me the economic model if said state opened up when it had 50-100 new cases a day. As I said, outbreaks hurt, based on data to date, one state's strategy has not yet proven to be economically better than the rest.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Show me cost and recovery data. Show me current state of play. Show me the economic model if said state opened up when it had 50-100 new cases a day. As I said, outbreaks hurt, based on data to date, one state's strategy has not yet proven to be economically better than the rest.

Yeah, nup. I'm a CPA, not after emotive statements, just data please.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yeah, nup. I'm a CPA, not after emotive statements, just data please.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yeah, nup. I'm a CPA, not after emotive statements, just data please.

I aware And that's actually what I'm after. Data.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Oi! Cheeky sausage...

Rightio then, since there's nothing forthcoming from down south we'll crunch the numbers.

How much does a seven-day lockdown cost?

Early estimates from the lobby group Small Business Australia place the cost of this seven-day Victorian lockdown at $1 billion in lost economic activity, while the Grattan Institute puts it at slightly lower at $900 million.

The Commonwealth Bank's chief economist Gareth Aird is estimating an even higher cost.

"We think that the direct cost of the seven-day lockdown in Victoria will be around $1.3 billion," he said.

Lets go $1.15 to be fair.

How many days has MEL/VIC been in lockdown? 164?

164/7=23.43*1.15=$27b

[lumen8]

Apparently SA has a 2:1 relationship with VIC when it comes to money in versus out also.

That is, Vics bring 2x more dollars into SA than SA's bring into Vic. So the media was saying some time back.

So in an indirect way SA has copped it a good amount from the Vic lockdowns also, as the border has been closed on and off for more than a year now.

Its just eased again for regional Victorians going into SA, but not so much for Melburnians.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Oi! Cheeky sausage...

Rightio then, since there's nothing forthcoming from down south we'll crunch the numbers.



Lets go $1.15 to be fair.

How many days has MEL/VIC been in lockdown? 164?

164/7=23.43*1.15=$27b

Data without context. So that is the cost. What is the recovery? Is there modelling that says keeping everything open, risking the virus spreading, would have been better? Genuine question, cos I'm open to changing my mind.

The Victorian economy is expected to bounce back from its COVID-19 lockdown despite a leading consultancy firm putting the cost of the closure at $125 million per day.

Experts from the ANZ and consulting giants EY and KPMG are all tipping the state’s economy will regain its pre-lockdown momentum once the restrictions in force for Melbourne are lifted.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...03-p57xxw.html

$125m x 14 days = $1.75b, half of the "other" estimate.

As I said, the true cost won't be known for another 12-24 months. But for now, ACTUAL data from the CBA suggest one strategy has not significantly outdone the other.

Originally Posted by lumen8

Apparently SA has a 2:1 relationship with VIC when it comes to money in versus out also.

That is, Vics bring 2x more dollars into SA than SA's bring into Vic. So the media was saying some time back.

So in an indirect way SA has copped it a good amount from the Vic lockdowns also, as the border has been closed on and off for more than a year now.

Its just eased again for regional Victorians going into SA, but not so much for Melburnians.

Fair point, indirect and flow on hit to other parts also needs to be factored. The strict lock down in metro has allowed regional to open faster and more aggressive. That's a good thing isn't it. Who would have thought ski trips were back on the cards 2 weeks ago?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Data without context. So that is the cost. What is the recovery? Is there modelling that says keeping everything open, risking the virus spreading, would have been better? Genuine question, cos I'm open to changing my mind.

The original statement you made was that VIC with its lockdowns faired as well as the GSS without lockdowns. The maths disproved that. Can't help you after that.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

The original statement you made was that VIC with its lockdowns faired as well as the GSS without lockdowns. The maths disproved that. Can't help you after that.

I believe I said that the one state that is rolling the dice has not proven to be significantly better than the others, economically. I'll leave it at that.

[MITCHAY]

I find it very hard to believe that the cost of shutting down a whole state such as VIC has done compares anywhere close to favourably to locking down a part of Sydney like NSW has done.

It's bad for all of Australia regardless of which type of lockdown you have.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Wow triggered. This just sounds like a rant and rambling with a bunch of misinformation thrown in, so my only response is......

No trigger or rambling just the way I see you

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'll leave it at that.

Probably for the best.

[slowsnake]

I feel very, very lucky to be living in Perth, my life here has not changed noticeably since Covid-19 hit Australia, and I feel sorry for anyone in Sydney or Melbourne whose life has been impacted by the virus, especially small well regarded family businesses and just the average Aussie trying to make a living!

All my information comes via TV, newspapers etc, and its mostly political pointscoring, public denial and unfettered bull****!...lol.
But every day I come here to the forum, click onto this thread and read every post!
What I get here is neither good or bad or indifferent, its lots of debating and chiacking goes on, all good natured stuff but its real, these are the folk on the ground, not behind a news microphone and camera, what you have here is well thought out opinions, some are bull**** ( usually mine )..lol, hehehe...

But what's here on this forum is real, so keep it coming blokes, and Leesa, lol, hahaha...


Cheers King Billy

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I feel very, very lucky to be living in Perth, my life here has not changed noticeably since Covid-19 hit Australia, and I feel sorry for anyone in Sydney or Melbourne whose life has been impacted by the virus, especially small well regarded family businesses and just the average Aussie trying to make a living!
............

I feel lucky for you. A state that has benefited from snap lock downs and suppression elimination And look at you now...

Originally Posted by slowsnake

What I get here is neither good or bad or indifferent, its lots of debating and chiacking goes on, all good natured stuff but its real, these are the folk on the ground, not behind a news microphone and camera, what you have here is well thought out opinions, some are bull**** ( usually mine )..lol, hehehe...

Yes and no, I try take it all with a grain of salt. I made a comment that current data does not suggest that one state's strategy has proven to be overwhelmingly better than the others economically, and wow.......

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I feel very, very lucky to be living in Perth, my life here has not changed noticeably since Covid-19 hit Australia, and I feel sorry for anyone in Sydney or Melbourne whose life has been impacted by the virus, especially small well regarded family businesses and just the average Aussie trying to make a living!

All my information comes via TV, newspapers etc, and its mostly political pointscoring, public denial and unfettered bull****!...lol.
But every day I come here to the forum, click onto this thread and read every post!
What I get here is neither good or bad or indifferent, its lots of debating and chiacking goes on, all good natured stuff but its real, these are the folk on the ground, not behind a news microphone and camera, what you have here is well thought out opinions, some are bull**** ( usually mine )..lol, hehehe...

But what's here on this forum is real, so keep it coming blokes, and Leesa, lol, hahaha...


Cheers King Billy

We have had it so good in Qld to. We have barely noticed Covid. One thing it has done is make the economy go even crazier up here. I've got Builders that are booked out for 18 months, every trades person I deal with are all flat out. Doesn't even look like slowing down. They reckon the next 3 years up here are going to be pretty full on.........

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

We have had it so good in Qld to. We have barely noticed Covid. One thing it has done is make the economy go even crazier up here. I've got Builders that are booked out for 18 months, every trades person I deal with are all flat out. Doesn't even look like slowing down. They reckon the next 3 years up here are going to be pretty full on.........

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...17-p581w0.html

"Queensland’s population is the fastest growing in the country, up by 1.1 per cent, or 58,100, to almost 5.2 million. More than half of that growth was from people moving out of Victoria and NSW."

Victoria, usually heavily reliant on international migration, has lost 40,000 to other countries, 13,000 to other states.

NSW lost 16,000 to other states, but made up for some of it through international migration.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...17-p581w0.html

"Queensland’s population is the fastest growing in the country, up by 1.1 per cent, or 58,100, to almost 5.2 million. More than half of that growth was from people moving out of Victoria and NSW."

Victoria, usually heavily reliant on international migration, has lost 40,000 to other countries, 13,000 to other states.

NSW lost 16,000 to other states, but made up for some of it through international migration.

This reminds me of the Old Joke about all the People from Victoria Migrating to to Queensland...

It raises the IQ of Both States......

[Yellow_Festiva]

Thailand to reopen for tourism only to vaccinated tourists
One of our favourite overseas holiday spots will reopen to foreign tourists in four months, but only a certain kind of traveller can enter.

Thailand plans to fully reopen to foreign visitors in four months –as long as they have been vaccinated – in a bid to repair the country’s ailing tourism industry.

The coronavirus pandemic has hammered Thailand’s tentpole tourism sector amid border closures and strict hotel quarantine measures.

The impact has reverberated across different sectors, downing hotels, restaurants, bars and local transport operators. And the country’s present battle against a third wave (it recorded 3000 new cases on June 15) has left local businesses clambering for more government aid.

Tourism previously made up almost 20 per cent of Thailand’s national income.

........

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...6ce2d6829928b5

I hope more countries will follow. Hopefully this prompts more to get the vaccination.

[Citroënbender]

This age-raising for “recommended” use of the AstraZeneca vaccine is IMO close to an effective death-knell. A soft phasing out within Australia; if the recommended age is lifted again it will remove the remaining public confidence in it. My cynicism goes further, expecting that its recipients to date will eventually be told they have to fully re-vaccinate with another product. I’m pleased that the spin-off in better confirming/treating blood clots may have enduring benefits.

Aside from that, it looks like no further local cases of Coronavirus for NSW have been disclosed overnight - assuming they’re running with the current media release model popularised by Victoria of “as they are detected” plus a daily wrap.