Vfacts Decenmber 2010

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

The Mondeos biggest problem is the Mazda 6....

The new 6 is a gem, similar size but IMO a better looker.
Mondeo also has to compete with the Accord Euro too which isn't a bad car.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I just love when people say "the profit line is getting tried" or "it is better to put the money in the bank & get 6% instead of making 2% selling cars"... It clearly shows a person as no idea why a business opens the front door & lets customers in!!!

Look at the excellent charts that show the sales of Ford on this site. Look at the median for Falcon and Territory sales, year by year and get back to me about what businesses open their doors for that result or what boardroom or investors would be happy with it.

We have to hope sales do pickup a bit. Exports looking more like a necessity to keep Falcon going. I hope they do, as Falcon really deserves a chance to get a bigger potential audience for it and the effort put into the car, should be enjoyed by a lot more people. It should not remain Australia's secret.

Dan

[prydey]

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

Look at the excellent charts that show the sales of Ford on this site. Look at the median for Falcon and Territory sales, year by year and get back to me about what businesses open their doors for that result or what boardroom or investors would be happy with it.

We have to hope sales do pickup a bit. Exports looking more like a necessity to keep Falcon going. I hope they do, as Falcon really deserves a chance to get a bigger potential audience for it and the effort put into the car, should be enjoyed by a lot more people. It should not remain Australia's secret.

Dan

unless you are a board member, this is all assumptions.

my assumption is that ford are happy to sell around 2-2500 units a month. i also doubt they would look at sales on a month by month basis. they would be well aware that they will go through a bit of a lean period at the moment but knowing they have some good products coming online next year, i doubt they would be panicking. i'm also guessing they could see it coming long before you or i.

yes, i probably did do the equivalent of sticking my fingers in my ears at the start of the thread, but i believe the subsequent pages have justified it. its the same thing every month. all doom and gloom from those who apparently 'know'! the thing is, its been going on for that long that credibility is really under fire.

here's a question, how many units should falcon sell, and why?

the large car market is shrinking. no one is denying that. there is still a market there though and these days sales of large cars are largely to people who actually need or want a large car. no point getting upset that it got outsold by i30, cruze, carolla, hilux, 3, etc. people looking at those cars aren't in the market for a falcon or a large car.

i believe ford would be well aware of this and have probably adapted so that they don't have to sell 3000units to remain profitable.

thats my assumption.

yes i like fords, and when it comes to buying, i am one eyed. i have a ls focus and fg xr6. i don't even look elsewhere. why should i? the ford product does everything i need it to do. i don't care if another product has more gadgets or does things .05% better.

[jpd80]

I'd ask members to keep a level head when viewing figures, there are valid reasons
why sales aren't great and they are being addressed perhaps slower than we would like.

we're almost part way through January, not long until new Territory arrives, the diesel promises
to be a big hit with buyers, just having a ZF 6-speed in the RWD I-6 is worth a lot of sales.

Fast forward to later in the year and we get LILPG which is something like 20-25% of Falcon sales
quickly followed by FG Series II and Ecoboost I-4 and its miserly fuel consumption.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by prydey

unless you are a board member, this is all assumptions.

my assumption is that ford are happy to sell around 2-2500 units a month. i also doubt they would look at sales on a month by month basis. they would be well aware that they will go through a bit of a lean period at the moment but knowing they have some good products coming online next year, i doubt they would be panicking. i'm also guessing they could see it coming long before you or i.

yes, i probably did do the equivalent of sticking my fingers in my ears at the start of the thread, but i believe the subsequent pages have justified it. its the same thing every month. all doom and gloom from those who apparently 'know'! the thing is, its been going on for that long that credibility is really under fire.

here's a question, how many units should falcon sell, and why?

the large car market is shrinking. no one is denying that. there is still a market there though and these days sales of large cars are largely to people who actually need or want a large car. no point getting upset that it got outsold by i30, cruze, carolla, hilux, 3, etc. people looking at those cars aren't in the market for a falcon or a large car.

i believe ford would be well aware of this and have probably adapted so that they don't have to sell 3000units to remain profitable.

thats my assumption.

yes i like fords, and when it comes to buying, i am one eyed. i have a ls focus and fg xr6. i don't even look elsewhere. why should i? the ford product does everything i need it to do. i don't care if another product has more gadgets or does things .05% better.

Pretty much.
Im sure Ford are striving to sell more cars, but also maintain margins in the process.
Ford are a smaller manufacturing business now than Holden are.
Ford could sell more Falcons if the wanted to but a few things would need to occur to make that happen; a reduction in price would see an increase in sales, trade profit for numbers, not smart business. The second thing that would need to happen is an increase of the line rate, something you cant do quickly or easily, its very hard to just turn up/down and requires staffing, negotiation increased demand on suppliers.... it must be sustainable incremental volume, not "firesale" spikes in demand.....

If Ford can turn a profit from their current numbers things arent that bad, especially with the models they've got coming on the horizon....

[bobthebilda]

There may be a chance that Falcon sales may pick up, but as the world is predicted to end in 2012, they dont have much time.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

Look at the excellent charts that show the sales of Ford on this site. Look at the median for Falcon and Territory sales, year by year and get back to me about what businesses open their doors for that result or what boardroom or investors would be happy with it.
Dan

It would be nice if we have a profit chart year by year!! This is all that counts!! I'm guessing investors would be more happy to see profit chart year on year, than any sales chart year on year!! I know I would if I was an investor!!

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When is LiLPG coming?? With FGII or before hand??

[Bossxr8]

3rd or 4th quarter. Depending on timing it might just coincide with FGII.

[buggerlugs]

Well, we are always hearing that Holden is giving away it's vehicles and not making any money on them, so when do the figures come out to say they have either made/ not made a profit, and are the figures cooked or honest ?

[ivorya]

Lets look at the Falcon vs Commodore for a sec.

Why do people continue to buy the commodore over the Falc? Looking at the paper today, they were selling Commodore (2nd hand market) for less than 20k.
I know resale for the falcon isn't much better but with fleet buying up the red side and dishing them onto the 2nd hand market, they must be loseing so much money.

I'd like there to be a breakdown of fleet sales compared to domestic sales. I think this is where Ford would be making most of their money.

[buggerlugs]

The resale for both are terrible...........

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Well, we are always hearing that Holden is giving away it's vehicles and not making any money on them, so when do the figures come out to say they have either made/ not made a profit, and are the figures cooked or honest ?

2010 Financial results for both car makers will filter through in February, they will be
given as a result for Asia initially and Aussie results will filter through about may/June.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

3rd or 4th quarter. Depending on timing it might just coincide with FGII.

That is a lllloooooonnnngggg time away... Falcon will really struggle until this comes out. Hate to see the numbers for the first half of this year (2011).. Especially consider Falcon was doing pretty well first half of 2010...

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Well, we are always hearing that Holden is giving away it's vehicles and not making any money on them, so when do the figures come out to say they have either made/ not made a profit, and are the figures cooked or honest ?

As a rough guide, last year Holden and Ford made approx. same profit if you remove all one-off write-offs for Holden..the difference is Holden sold over 20% more vehicles in Australia last year.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

As a rough guide, last year Holden and Ford made approx. same profit if you remove all one-off write-offs for Holden..the difference is Holden sold over 20% more vehicles in Australia last year.

I think you mean 2009, that was around 20% more
Holden 119,568
Ford 96,501

In 2010, Holden sold almost 40% more
Holden – 132,923
Ford – 95,284

[Brazen]

The big question is which month this year will the Caprice outsell the Falcon Ute?

Seriously though, im betting Toyota's successful finance deal will be copied by many.

Does anyone think that the dedicated injected Lpg Commodore coming out will hurt Ford? Im hoping it will make more buyers consider Lpg in general, and hence help in more people considering Lpg Falcon.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I think you mean 2009, that was around 20% more
Holden 119,568
Ford 96,501

In 2010, Holden sold almost 40% more
Holden – 132,923
Ford – 95,284

Thanks, 2009 was what I meant.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Brazen

The big question is which month this year will the Caprice outsell the Falcon Ute?

Seriously though, im betting Toyota's successful finance deal will be copied by many.

Does anyone think that the dedicated injected Lpg Commodore coming out will hurt Ford? Im hoping it will make more buyers consider Lpg in general, and hence help in more people considering Lpg Falcon.

It will hurt because Ford has lost all advantage in getting to market well ahead of the opposition. The switch to V6 and then reversal back to I6 has delayed LiLPG introduction big time compounded by some troubles in getting it all sorted. Ford seemingly have not ridden ahead of the popularity wave but rather come in after it, eg, Terry tdi, lilpg Falc, an Escape replacement....

[dannyhilton]

Originally Posted by ivorya

I'd like there to be a breakdown of fleet sales compared to domestic sales. I think this is where Ford would be making most of their money.

http://www.fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11309342

This whole argument of 'Holden sells their cars dirt cheap' is getting old. You can buy a brand new FG XR6 Euro 4 6-Speed ZF for $32,000 D/A at some Ford dealers.

Combine the above thread (forgetting the the user chooser and lease sales in these figures for a moment please) with the fact that Holden does sell plenty of high series vehicles (there is a thread somewhere here to support this) and Holden isn't in as bad as a position as some make them out to be.

I'm not saying Holden is profitable (they have a higher volume of workers to punch out these cars), nor and I suggesting they don't do big discounting (we know they do, especially on some of their high series cars too), but they do seem to have a good mix of base model sales with high series models with their higher volume of cars.

I'm hoping that we get to see positive financial returns for all our local manufactures this year. We all know, if one more goes it'll make it very tough for the remaining two.

[Windsor220]

Yeah that "Ford sells more private sales" line turned out to be a big myth.

[Ford_The_Win]

The same things get said every month. Falcon not selling, Focus not selling, Mondeo not selling, Ford has crap marketing, why can't we have Holden's marketing, Holden aren't making a profit, etc etc etc. It's well established that Ford have burned a lot of bridges with their customers by giving them dodgy cars, and have failed spectacularly at marketing their products. We don't have the power to rebuild those bridges or direct their latest ad campaign. Unless the nuffers at Ford are reading the suggestions on offer, I don't see what good repeating this discussion will do.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by dannyhilton

http://www.fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11309342

This whole argument of 'Holden sells their cars dirt cheap' is getting old. You can buy a brand new FG XR6 Euro 4 6-Speed ZF for $32,000 D/A at some Ford dealers.

Combine the above thread (forgetting the the user chooser and lease sales in these figures for a moment please) with the fact that Holden does sell plenty of high series vehicles (there is a thread somewhere here to support this) and Holden isn't in as bad as a position as some make them out to be.

I'm not saying Holden is profitable (they have a higher volume of workers to punch out these cars), nor and I suggesting they don't do big discounting (we know they do, especially on some of their high series cars too), but they do seem to have a good mix of base model sales with high series models with their higher volume of cars.

I'm hoping that we get to see positive financial returns for all our local manufactures this year. We all know, if one more goes it'll make it very tough for the remaining two.

Danny, what you say is true.
Holden Ford are evenly matched in mid range models but then, Holden goes further by selling
more vehicles at both ends of the spectrum. They sell more high series vehicles especially V8s
but also a lot more Omegas at discount - these are the ones critics notice and assume the worst.
Truthfully, both manufacturers probably end up with a similar result per vehicle by different means.

[dannyhilton]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Truthfully, both manufacturers probably end up with a similar result per vehicle by different means.

Agreed. What will be interesting though is how each manufacturer will deal with what the future throws at them. To produce those extra cars, Holden have more staff. This makes them better set to take advantage of a growing large car market. Ford on the other hand have a much smaller work force, meaning a lowering in the large car segment won't hurt them as much. The new Territory should help revise medium SUV figures, and if past trends are anything to go by, the large car segment will continue to drop and SUV sales will go up. It would appear, on paper at least, Ford is better set for the future. Holden are also vowing to reduce 'price slashing' so it'll be interesting to see what this does to their figures.

Throw the Aussie-built Cruze into the equation though, and it all goes a little blurry!

[janddbone]

Big cars a definitely in decline... Says more about Australia than it does about Ford or Holden!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by mr_br_johnstone

Big cars a definitely in decline... Says more about Australia than it does about Ford or Holden!

Big car buyers have been steadily migrating over to small and medium SUVs
those vehicles offer more utility and better vision for driver and occupants.
Most of those SUVs have a diesel engine option for outstanding fuel economy.

[vztrt]

For the NZ'ders

Mixed outlook for New Zealand

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...257815001BBF7C

Industry still cautious for 2011 despite NZ market recovery

11 January 2011

By JACQUI MADELIN in NEW ZEALAND

THE New Zealand car industry remains cautious as it enters 2011, despite an increase in new vehicle sales of 14.8 per cent in 2010.

Although vehicle sales totaled 80,453 – passenger cars were up 14 per cent to 62,029 and light commercials rose 30 per cent to 18,424 – that was still 17.3 per cent below 2008’s tally of 97,330.

Used import sales rose 27.1 per cent to 91,410, just 8.3 per cent below the 99,701 reached in 2008.

Motor Industry Association CEO Perry Kerr said he was happy with the 2010 result because it was higher than the initial industry prediction.

Toyota recorded its 23rd year at the top with a dominant 22.4 per cent market share, despite adverse publicity early in the year over recalls.

The biggest changes in the top 10 were Mitsubishi – with a percentage point increase in share – and Honda, which lost a similar amount.

Mitsubishi NZ sales and marketing chief Daniel Cook said the key to its success was new product and the Diamond Advantage warranty that launched in November 2009.

Honda NZ managing director Graeme Seymour said the company chose not to cut prices to retain market share and remains convinced Honda NZ is in good health.

“When you pick a fight in a depressed market you can spend a lot of money,” he said.

“We judged some companies would price to fight for share, and we chose not to do that.

“Our dealer network is still strong. We’ve seen dealer profitability up on previous years (and) service and used car profitability has been strong.

“Now the market is starting to lift, you can watch us be more aggressive. We think as private buyers get their debt down they will start returning to the market. There will be some recovery and we will grow ahead of that.”

Mercedes-Benz topped the luxury market with 1425 sales (including 601 light commercials), but Audi led the passenger tables at 1281, up 22.3 per cent on 2009.

Toyota’s overall market lead came from 18,035 registrations (up 18.3%), with Ford second on 9420 (up 10.4%), and Holden third on 7799 (up 19.3%).

Mazda (6316, up 10.9%), Hyundai (5653, up 12.1%), Nissan (5228, up 20.9%), Suzuki (4518, up 21.0%) and Mitsubishi (4374, up 40.3%) completed a top eight that was identical in order to 2009.

VW rose to ninth with 2378 sales (up 21.9%), just five units ahead of Honda, which rounded out the top ten with 2373 sales (down 14.4%).

The top-selling models for 2010 were the Toyota Corolla (4890), Toyota HiLux (3454), Suzuki Swift (2724) and Holden Commodore (2564).

Suzuki NZ CEO Bill Grice believes the Swift cuts across all age groups and has become an iconic car, like the Mini was many years ago, but is very cautious about the 2011 market.

“I don’t think there’s the consumer confidence out there that there should be,” said Mr Grice.

“I don’t think the banks have helped; they provide an umbrella on a sunny day and take it away when it rains. That, and the fact people have lost equity in their dwellings, means a lot of the money out there has gone to repaying debt.

“There’s less disposable income around, despite what the government says. There’s a fuel component in nearly everything you buy and if fuel stays at over the $2 mark it’ll have a huge impact. It puts commodity prices up and people spend more just to get to work, so it has a compound effect.”

His counterpart at Toyota NZ, Alistair Davis, also remains conservative and does not believe the rate of recovery will be maintained.

“I don’t think the bounce-back will continue at the same rate,” warned Mr Davis. “It was driven by businesses that couldn’t keep extending their leases.

“We’re now in a position where the economy is growing only very slowly, and where there is growth – in tourism and dairy – the money is being channeled into paying down debt and improving savings. Consequently, if people can avoid buying a new car, they will.

“Our projection is two or three per cent growth – with total numbers only slightly ahead of 2010. The market will get up, but it will take three or four years as our population slowly increases, rather than as we get wealthy.”

The MIA is less pessimistic, with Mr Kerr predicting strong growth and a return to record sales.

“We pick the same level of increase as the economy will remain strong due to the rugby world cup, election year, and the necessity for fleet buyers to upgrade their fleets,” said Mr Kerr.

“The increase will take the market back to 2008 figures.”

NZ top 10 makes 2010:
Rank Make Sales % Share
1 Toyota 18,035 22.7%
2 Ford 9420 11.7%
3 Holden 7799 9.7%
4 Mazda 6316 7.8%
5 Hyundai 5653 7.0%
6 Nissan 5228 6.5%
7 Suzuki 4518 5.6%
8 Mitsubishi 4374 5.4%
9 Volkswagen 2378 3.0%
10 Honda 2373 3.0%
Source: MIA NZ

[vztrt]

Aussie motorists see the light

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...257815001E8D8B

Trend to light cars continued in 2010, despite stable fuel prices

11 January 2011

By RON HAMMERTON

THE smallest cars on the market packed a big punch in 2010, with so-called light cars leading the growth of passenger car sales as the motor industry completed its comeback from the global financial crisis.

Booming SUVs – particularly the compact variety – set the pace with 25 per cent growth in sales in 2010, but passenger car sales generally lagged, growing 9.5 per cent compared with the overall market’s 10.5 per cent lift.

But that flat performance by the passenger car segment would have been worse if it had not been for light car sales, which surged 18.4 per cent over 2009 levels.

This is despite relatively steady fuel prices and a growing economy – two factors that usually encourage buyers to drift back to bigger, thirstier cars until the going gets tough again.

Clearly, Australians have a growing appetite for light cars – an appetite that could soar to near-European levels in the event of a new fuel spike such as the one experienced globally in 2008.

This light-car boom has been largely driven by a wealth of new-generation models that not only offer an unprecedented level of comfort and performance that were once the province of large cars, but also prices that have never been lower, not just in relative historical or adjusted value terms but in simple dollars.

When was the last time a new car could be had for $11,790, complete with airbags, ABS and ESC? The current Suzuki Alto is one such car.

The strong Aussie dollar and record-low tariff levels – down to zero for cars imported from Thailand – have helped.

In the past 10 years, light car sales in Australia have more than doubled, up 106 per cent from 66,942 vehicles in 2001 to 137,916 in 2010.

By comparison, sales in the one-size-larger small-car segment – for several years the largest in the industry – have grown a 47.5 per cent in the same timeframe, from 162,046 units to 239,191 today.

Last year, small cars, which include the top-selling Toyota Corolla, Mazda3, Hyundai i30 and Holden Cruze, could manage a sales gain of only 11.8 per cent – just ahead of the market in general.

The once-dominant large-car market segment, led by the Holden Commodore, was the only passenger car segment to lose ground last year, down 3.1 per cent.

Since 2001, large car sales have almost halved – down 48 per cent from 190,303 vehicles to 98,583 units.

While large cars are more affordable than ever, too, many light cars sold at the budget end of the spectrum are used-car substitutes, snapped up by Gen Y buyers used to shiny new products (not someone else’s problems), Gen Xs looking for a second family runabout and Baby Boomers amazed at the value when it comes time to downsize.

Although these buyers find a bewildering variety to choose from, the number of contenders in the light car segment has actually declined in the past decade, down from 23 models in 2001 to 21 in 2010.

This year, however, that figure is expected to jump with the arrival of the first wave in what is expected to be the new driver in the class: Chinese cars.

At least two Chinese companies – Geely and Chery – have plans to introduce new light cars on to the Australia market in 2011, and while no one is saying they will take the market by storm, every motor company from Toyota down is keeping a careful eye on the development.

If nothing else, they will serve to keep prices in check, just as the South Korean entries did in the 1980s.

Yes, the established car-makers will be able to charge a premium over the new kids on the block, but only so much in this, the most price sensitive area of the market.

While the light-car market segment has grown over the past few years, it has also developed into what could be described as two separate classes: the full-sized light car as represented by models such as the Yaris, Holden Barina and Volkswagen Polo, and the city runabouts – the Alto, Nissan Micra and Barina Spark.

The latter is developing into one of the hot new battlegrounds, with many car companies either locking in such models or putting out feelers to head office about sourcing a model.

Hyundai, who has just lost its top-selling Hyundai Getz that has come to the end of its long and distinguished life, is eying the similarly sized i10 baby car, while Toyota has a new sub-Yaris model under consideration.

The result is a two-pronged approach for most of the major car companies, in the mould of Holden’s Barina/Barina Spark strategy.

And they won’t necessarily be smaller, with some these cars simply cheaper due to a combination of lower levels of technology based on amortised designs and cheaper manufacturing sources.

A good example of this could be the Ford Figo, which is based on the superseded Ford Fiesta and made in India (with another version set to go into production in China).

Apart from India, China looms as the next big source of such cars as the world’s biggest market gets on top of quality and supply requirements.

All of the world’s major car companies are already operating in China, and while the hungry Chinese market is gobbling up every car they and their Chinese partner companies can make right now, it is only a matter of time before they turn their eyes west, perhaps prompted by mooted restrictions of domestic car market growth in that country.

One thing is for sure, we haven’t seen the end of light car action yet.

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

A smaller I6 was tried, and failed. Fuel economy only improved by something like 0.2 litres per 100, which is bugger all. It was a little smaller in capacity but essentially the same engine, same weight etc, just making it a bit smaller does not change internal friction etc.

The engineers proved it was a waste of time and money. Switching to an electric power steering pump will save more than that.

That was 20 years ago with the EA! Technology has advanced significantly and a 3.2 today would produce a lot more power and torque compared to the asthmatic 90kW produced from the EA 3.2 engine which was fitted to a 3 speed auto. With a modern engine and twice as many gears it wouldn't have to be flogged as hard to get it to go, which is what the EA 3.2 engine suffered from.

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Really? So having to re-engineer an engine to meet emmission standards, while having decent torque and power. Then getting the transmission on it and working out the gearing. Testing the engine for durability then the km testing with the Falcon. Also an engine that is unique so will be more expensive to build is cheaper then having an engine that has had the R&D done to it, probably ready for the next emmission standard, and seeing as its an engine that will be pushed everywhere will not isolate it in the automotive world.

3.2 version of current I6
New crank, rods and pistons smaller capacity fuel injectors
Only basic endurance test required for a proven base design
Recalibrate the engine management system (existing Visteon system)
Recalibrate the auto transmission
New ratios for the trannies and final drive to suit the engine charactersitics

New 2.0 GTDI 4 cyl
New engine - full vehicle end engine validation programmes required
New mounting design for the engine
Redesign under bonnet architecture - layout of plumbing, wiring etc as nothing carrys over from I6
Validate affect of new engine on under bonnet thermal, vibration and EMC charateristics
New engine management system (Bosch) No carry over from I6 so everything needs to be done from scratch
New transmissions(?). Either way they need a new design to mount to a new engine which is normally used for FWD applications.
Lighter engine means tweaking front shockers, springs dampers etc
Any change to front suspension will require recalibration of ABS and DSC (and maybe also traction control)
Repeat crash tests and recalibrate the airbag deployment triggers.

Clear as mud which is the easier and cheaper solution. The 4 cyl engine was purely a politicial decision.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Lighter engine means tweaking front shockers, springs dampers etc
Any change to front suspension will require recalibration of ABS and DSC (and maybe also traction control)

Clear as mud which is the easier and cheaper solution. The 4 cyl engine was purely a political decision.

So the 3.2 is gonna be as heavy as the 4L? Your gonna need the above for the 3.2 as well.

Then the other problem is with the even more limited number of pars for the 3.2 how much of a premium is it gonna cost. World engines are the way car manufactures going. Hence why the I6 will unfortunately die.