Australia housing bubble

[Iggle Piggle]

Originally Posted by xax2

...Compare this with the expectations of today.
I'm certainly not having a go at the first home buyers of today, but many have had a 3 month trip to Europe before starting to save for a house (something their parents wouldn't have done)...

My grandfather spent a fair bit of time in Europe before building a house back here. Most of his European trip was spent running behind a tank though.

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...89d79e2e319b8d

Keen has been predicting a crash since the GFC which did'nt really effect Oz.

Channel 7 on Sunday Night program did an article about all the rich Chinese investors that are absolutely loaded and lots of them are trying to get out of China and bring their money with them.

Melbourne and the Gold Coast are the new hot spots and in Box Hill a Chinese developer is building a large apartment tower. (Box Hill has very high asian population).

And they also have massive projects going ahead on the Gold Coast.

Vancouver has put a 15% tax on foreign investors because they're buying up Canada also. (One property sold for 1Million over the reserve).

Maybe Turnbull should be doing the same here?

[snap0964]

Didn't they announce something similar in the budget with regard to foreign owned real estate ? I can't remember exactly what it was. It might of been labor - a tax on vacant properties ?

CBA entered the fray effective Mon 22 May: CBA will reduce its maximum loan-to-value-ratio (LVR) to 80% (previously 95% for home and 90% for investment), will not allow interest only repayments on home loans anymore and will offer lower discounts on all interest only loans (i.e. higher rates).

I have been told also that there have also been been changes to the loan requirements on foreign investors as well.

[Cav]

I'd like to buy a house [insert location here] but I can't afford it.

Why doesn't the govmint do something about it?

[GO FURTHER]

Why the Australian housing bubble is not going to burst in the foreseeable future…

Firstly, if you were to plot a graph of average Australian house prices for the last 117 years from 1900, you will see there was never been a crash in housing prices in Australia.

Yes, there have been minor corrections, small drops, and periods where prices have not moved up. But in over 100 years... Just a minor drop after the second world war to 1950, but no crash even during the recession of the 1991 or the GFC.

The Australian housing market has proven to be highly resilient and bucked world trends when house prices collapsed in the US and parts of Europe.

Now let’s talk about the Chinese investors, as I believe this is what will keep prices from crashing in the long term ...

Let’s analyse why they want to invest their money in the Australian housing market….

There are 3 major reasons….

Reason 1

The Chinese are long term planners and thinkers, they think about not only about their future but the future security of their children and grandchildren, more so than us Westerners…. Now keep this in mind as I continue….

How many people here realize that you cannot actually buy a property in Mainland China?

Yes, that’s right, even as a Chinese citizen…. You can only buy a 70 year lease on the land, and after that period has elapsed, there is no guarantee that your lease will be renewed, and the house you have built on that land can revert back to the communist government. All land is owned by the government.

Now, as the Chinese think long term, and for their children and grand children… Why invest money on property that you might never be able to pass on down to them, as you can in Australia.

Reason 2

There are 1.387 Billion people in China.
Now lets assume that just 0.5% are wealthy enough to want to invest their money in Australian property…. That’s approximately 7 million people!
In fact there are now over 1,000,000 millionaires in China.

Now compare that to the Australian population of 24.6 million people, and you soon realize that there is no shortage of Chinese wanting to invest in Australia for many years to come!

Now, I hear people saying…. “Ah, yes… But what happens if the Chinese economy starts to slow down? …. That will lead to a slow down in Chinese investment in Australian property!”

Well actually…. No… Just the opposite will happen.

If China slows …. The wealthy Chinese will be pulling their money out of the stock market and China, and will instead want to invest in Australian safe bricks and mortar more than ever!

Reason 3

Australian properties are still considered “cheap” by Chinese investors compared to similar real estate in good areas in Chinese cities and of course with a 70 year lease and no title for life.


So those of you waiting for the bubble to burst so you can maybe get into the property market …. Think again… It’s not a bubble … It’s a hot air Balloon that’s not landing anytime soon!

[lgpking22]

chinese people shouldnt be allowed to buy our houses

[smoo]

Originally Posted by snap0964

Didn't they announce something similar in the budget with regard to foreign owned real estate ? I can't remember exactly what it was. It might of been labor - a tax on vacant properties ?

CBA entered the fray effective Mon 22 May: CBA will reduce its maximum loan-to-value-ratio (LVR) to 80% (previously 95% for home and 90% for investment), will not allow interest only repayments on home loans anymore and will offer lower discounts on all interest only loans (i.e. higher rates).

I have been told also that there have also been been changes to the loan requirements on foreign investors as well.

Banks in NZ have also done something similar to curb the out of control prices and ensure some security.

60% LVR on investment properties.
80% in PPOR.
Up to 90% on new build for both PPOR and investments, on a case by case basis.
No interest only loans for investors.

The 60% LVR for investment properties was introduced in August last year and cut most investors out of the market over night. It has seemed to of worked but is also a coincidence in timing as most regions had made huge gains and near peaked by then. Also a case of too little to late.

According to the media there has suppose to of been a crash for 6-9 months now.
And interest rates were suppose to go through the roof from the start of this year.
None of which has happened.

Then on the other hand they contradict themselves and report spoon fed BS real estate agent tell them of a booming market while days to sell has increased, listings to auction decreased, more listings with prices advertised and sections and developments have failed to sell out.

The media are on a landlord witch hunt demonising us to those who cannot help themselves and can't take responsibility for their own actions. Interestingly enough I can vividly remember 5-7 years ago main news websites would have weekly opinion pieces/articles/blogs on the benefits of renting over buying, back when house prices were half as what they are now, and affordable on a mediocre wage. Now there are daily articles on why owning a house should be the bottom feeder of society's god given right. They should also hold themselves to account as to why many people can't get on the ladder.

[snap0964]

I think the CBA's move was more of a arm flex towards the government - put a bank tax on us (0.06%), and we'll affect the property market.
A bit of irony since it was government owned til 1996.

Unlike the chinese, our governments seem to act short term - I guess they figure they'll be only around a term or two, so selling assets make quick $$$.

I'd think leasing government assets a better option, at the end of the lease, they remain in the fold.

As we know, successive treasurers always try and shirtfront the banks, but to little affect, as they have no power over them.
With all these type of things, the average person will wear it - the bank tax will simply be passed on to customers - the ACCC won't be able to do anything about it.

As mentioned earlier, historically, the Aust property market has always been reasonably stable - the economists I've seen asked about drastically changing Neg gearing, have said it won't greatly affect the property market for any better. Rental supply still needs to come from investors - cut the incentives, you reduce supply, increase rents - the average joe wears the hurt.

What to do ? Like Bob Hawke did when he first became PM, maybe have a moratorium with all the major players and get their input.

I think there certainly needs to be much government reform - there's heaps of laws/funding procedures that date back pre federation. And when you pay your council rates, it goes to local government which is not even in the Australian constitution.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by smoo

Banks in NZ have also done something similar to curb the out of control prices and ensure some security.

60% LVR on investment properties.
80% in PPOR.
Up to 90% on new build for both PPOR and investments, on a case by case basis.
No interest only loans for investors.

The 60% LVR for investment properties was introduced in August last year and cut most investors out of the market over night. It has seemed to of worked but is also a coincidence in timing as most regions had made huge gains and near peaked by then. Also a case of too little to late.

According to the media there has suppose to of been a crash for 6-9 months now.
And interest rates were suppose to go through the roof from the start of this year.
None of which has happened.

Then on the other hand they contradict themselves and report spoon fed BS real estate agent tell them of a booming market while days to sell has increased, listings to auction decreased, more listings with prices advertised and sections and developments have failed to sell out.

The media are on a landlord witch hunt demonising us to those who cannot help themselves and can't take responsibility for their own actions. Interestingly enough I can vividly remember 5-7 years ago main news websites would have weekly opinion pieces/articles/blogs on the benefits of renting over buying, back when house prices were half as what they are now, and affordable on a mediocre wage. Now there are daily articles on why owning a house should be the bottom feeder of society's god given right. They should also hold themselves to account as to why many people can't get on the ladder.

The banks in NZ are Aussie owned anyway, so its surprising they have not introduced the same measures here. Auckland real estate, regardless of what suburb, has doubled in 5 years in most part due to Chinese investment (Wellington is next) similar to what is driving up Sydney prices. Requiring a 60% deposit won't affect these buyers but will put the brakes on Mum and Dad investors. I hear one in 5 properties sold in Auckland over the past 2-3 years is sitting vacant.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Cav

I'd like to buy a house [insert location here] but I can't afford it.

Why doesn't the govmint do something about it?

Most people want to live near the jobs i.e cities.
House prices in cities have exploded while incomes haven't. Government is partly to blame for this so yes they should do something about it.

The value of my first house I bought in 2012 increased by about 8% a year until I sold it in 2015.
Do you know anyone who got a pay rise of 8% a year without changing to a completely different position? I don't. Sure it happens, but not for most people. You hear more about people taking paycuts just to keep their job.

[GASWAGON]

O.k so now its looking like the Chinese have bitten off more than they can chew in Melbourne apartments. They're now selling apartments at a loss!

I've read that thers 80,000 brand new empty apartments in Melbourne.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-2...market/8557182

[snap0964]

Well there was IIRC a Chinese consortium that bought Sth Molle Island last year
(or year before last ?)
And in the paper today - Ansell have sold their Condom production to the Chinese.
Is nothing safe

[fordomatic]

I have investment properties, I pulled out of a contract for a new built Townhouse in Darwin about 9 months ago. Looking back i couldn't be happier that i did it.

I'm investing my money elsewhere for the time being, I have a feeling something big is going to happen in the next 5 years.

[Tom Tucker]

Originally Posted by Raptor

It's the negative gearing + capital gain tax discounts together. Investing is meant to be a risky business, the above policies have pretty much made it as safe as houses (see what I did there) for the past few decades.

Time for a major correction IMHO - driven by sensible policy adjustment.

If the above policies were meant to add to the housing supply - they have failed whenever an investors purchases an existing property (i.e. most of the time).

If the capital gains tax discount was to adjust for the erosion caused by inflation - why is it still so high whilst inflation is now so low?

Housing should be for living in, investors money should be spent on more productive assets.

Wonder why the retailers etc are doing it so tough, not employing anyone and generally grinding the economy to a halt? It's because after people pay for rent or their mortgage there's SFA all for anything else.

.

You Sir, hit the nail on the head. I'm glad I'm not the only one that has a problem with a rampant speculative market on residential property

[Sprintey]

Open market to widgets from all nations, stop protecting local widget maker, stop making widget, layoff local widget assemblers, import cheaper widget from China to $ave $$$, see immediate Aussie lifestyle improvement today (bargain mate!), $$$ flow to China; allow open RE ownership, $$$ comes back with vengeance turbocharged by yuan printing, Chinese $$$ buyers compete for housing stock, housing prices rise exponentially, your kids can't afford housing in the country of their birth. Nor can the laid off widget assemblers.

Traffic goes mental. Sit back and have a beer while admiring the great deal you got on the widget.

(To be fair, could replace 'China' with UK or US or Uzbekistan or many others...)

[MITCHAY]

I'd love an interest rate raise right now so long as it is passed onto deposit holders. Earnings are crap on savings accounts right now.

So I could get a win-win situation so long as it wipes out some of my competition in the process.

Definitely regretting some houses I passed on a year ago though. The quality is not there in comparison.

So glad I don't live in Sydney or Melbourne because what you pay there for some houses will get you a mansion here.

[sr71]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

I'm investing my money elsewhere for the time being, I have a feeling something big is going to happen in the next 5 years.

Would you mind sharing what that could be. Thanks

[ebxr8240]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I'd love an interest rate raise right now so long as it is passed onto deposit holders. Earnings are crap on savings accounts right now.

So I could get a win-win situation so long as it wipes out some of my competition in the process.

Definitely regretting some houses I passed on a year ago though. The quality is not there in comparison.

So glad I don't live in Sydney or Melbourne because what you pay there for some houses will get you a mansion here.

Yep me too I've just sold one of my rentals so have no loan over the others . Now I can get decent return on my super !! Where's the guys that sold up for cash before GFC now !! Gone quiet !!

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by ebxr8240

Yep me too I've just sold one of my rentals so have no loan over the others . Now I can get decent return on my super !! Where's the guys that sold up for cash before GFC now !! Gone quiet !!

...lol

[snap0964]

I'd say for the next year to 18mths, I doubt they'll be much of any rate rises by the RBA. More likely the banks will raise rates independently.
Cash rates are pretty ordinary as we know - you'd be better off investigating putting the money into indirectly investing in developments, real estate projects, etc, much better return, but there are risks as well of course as usual.

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by snap0964

I'd say for the next year to 18mths, I doubt they'll be much of any rate rises by the RBA. More likely the banks will raise rates independently.
Cash rates are pretty ordinary as we know - you'd be better off investigating putting the money into indirectly investing in developments, real estate projects, etc, much better return, but there are risks as well of course as usual.

Yep. I expect there will be little or no return from simply buying and holding real estate without any improvements over the next few years, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. The money will be in developments, knock down and rebuilds with higher density (villas, duplex's etc)

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by GT0132

Yep. I expect there will be little or no return from simply buying and holding real estate without any improvements over the next few years, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. The money will be in developments, knock down and rebuilds with higher density (villas, duplex's etc)

Yep there are lot of very old houses around in outer Melbourne suburbs that are being either totally demolished or sometimes cut in half and relocated to the country if the house is still salvagable and made of hardwood which lasts forever.

The problem is some of compact unit designs there building now have very little space for a full size car to fit in the garage and not much space left for storage and the space inside the units themselves is very tight.

No backyards or garden either......not good for kids.

[xax2]

I've been on Fordforums for a few years and check in here most days, but am new to 'The Bar' , it appears to be a good area to discuss current topics.
But I must ask: Who closes down these threads?

There was some interesting debate about Margaret Court's comments going on in an adjoining thread and now it's been "Closed". What happened?
There didn't seem to be anything overly offensive?

I'm keen to contribute, as I've tried to do in this thread but keen to know what the rules are?

[Raptor]

Originally Posted by xax2

....
But I must ask: Who closes down these threads?
....
keen to know what the rules are?

Site admin or moderators have the ability to close or otherwise edit posts/threads.

Rules are the same as elsewhere. Ref: Site Terms & Conditions







.

[GASWAGON]

I been on this Forum since 2005 and its been great for technical info on my Fords and other info too......Much better than getting ripped off all the time.

The Oz housing bubble debate was started by a member called 'Dave289' way back during the GFC 08/09.

That thread went on for about 3 years from memory but it got shut down and Dave289 was banned.

10 years later the RE in Melbourne and Sydney is still being heavily invested in and alot of investors have made alot of money due to negative gearing and CGT.

But finally after all this time it looks like its starting to cool a little due to new foriegn investor rules and a tax on empty apartments in Melbourne city that mainly chinese investors have been buying and holding and are apparently many of them are now selling at a loss just to get out of debt as the returns are not as big as they planned on.

So its looking like the market will cool down for a few years and maybe even a bit of a correction.....Could be 5, 10, 15, 20 % but i dont think there will be a crash like Dave 289 used to rant on about???

Unfortunately for all the FHB's that took out interest only loans the banks are now clamping down on lending rules and raising rates for these types of loans which are stupid anyways so if any of them loose jobs it will be extreemely hard to make mortgage payments if they cant find new jobs.

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by Raptor

Site admin or moderators have the ability to close or otherwise edit posts/threads.

Rules are the same as elsewhere. Ref: Site Terms & Conditions


.

Are they?
What about the sticky at the top of this section which mentions warnings?

Too many threads in this section being closed when there appears to be other alternatives.

My 2c.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by CoolBFWagon

I been on this Forum since 2005 and its been great for technical info on my Fords and other info too......Much better than getting ripped off all the time.

The Oz housing bubble debate was started by a member called 'Dave289' way back during the GFC 08/09.

That thread went on for about 3 years from memory but it got shut down and Dave289 was banned.

10 years later the RE in Melbourne and Sydney is still being heavily invested in and alot of investors have made alot of money due to negative gearing and CGT.

But finally after all this time it looks like its starting to cool a little due to new foriegn investor rules and a tax on empty apartments in Melbourne city that mainly chinese investors have been buying and holding and are apparently many of them are now selling at a loss just to get out of debt as the returns are not as big as they planned on.

So its looking like the market will cool down for a few years and maybe even a bit of a correction.....Could be 5, 10, 15, 20 % but i dont think there will be a crash like Dave 289 used to rant on about???

Unfortunately for all the FHB's that took out interest only loans the banks are now clamping down on lending rules and raising rates for these types of loans which are stupid anyways so if any of them loose jobs it will be extreemely hard to make mortgage payments if they cant find new jobs.

Well, in brief pretty close to what Dave289 went on about.
The sky is falling - yer right, he got proven wrong didn't he.
I think even the so called "correction" that has been the next favoured word by the Finance Industry and media types such as Ross Greenwood is another one of those "lost leaders" in a way.
Sure a drop now and then will occur, has to BUT in the go to popular areas or close to the CBD I can't see HUGE drops as predicted one day.
Outskirts and new DEV areas for sure will drop and affordable so to speak depending where but near the major cities - the drop will be a minor bump imo.

[au350hp]

Housing prices will never go backwards in any major 1st world city.

Australia is a country built on immigration which will never change and that is what is driving these markets. The population will only get bigger, people will always want to live in established suburbs over new, so there will always be economic growth with houses. You simply cannot go wrong.

False economies like WA mining boom are different. Nobody in their right mind would have bought over priced homes in Perth. Look at the past growth patterns, it is an isolated city with slow population growth compared to Sydney & Melbourne etc, sure there are niche areas like any city, but nothing like here.

As a rule, every 10 years your property will double or even triple in some cases. The trick is to pick the areas that will have big growth spurts in the future because of planning and infrastructure. Fairfield I& Liverpool n western Sydney is a good example as the government plans on spending a tonne of money and there is another airport to come as well. Granville is another area I have my eye on. Some real value there and its on Parramatta's doorstep which is one of the hottest commercial markets in the country presently. Any suburb nearby Parramatta will be a goldmine in years to come. Look at Merrylands & Guilford areas and what the market has done there recently.

In 2005 my wife & I bought in Baulkham Hills for $420k and current value is 1.2m which is better than average but typical of what to expect over a similar time frame.

To people who say its too hard to get into the market, remember you rarely stay in the first house you buy. We bought in Doonside, knocked a bit off the mortgage and then refinanced and bought into a better suburb. Blacktown & Seven Hills is another area where there is good buying and investment opportunities.

Any decent tradesman wont have a problem getting into the market, that's why it pays to have a ticket or go to university. I did neither and it is has been a lot harder than it should have been. Now I run my own business but years of working for a wage is not the way to make it in this life.

If your young and reading this, take heed of what I am saying and listen to people who have done it. No generation has had it easier than any other, that's just BS. Think about growing up in world wars and depressions. Those things affect mums, dads & kids for years and many never get over the effects. Get a qualification, avoid marriage & kids whilst your still a kid yourself, stay at home if you can & save. When you reach 40 and then 50, your happiness will depend on whether or not you applied these lessons.

I am lucky to be paying off a Sydney property at my age considering the life I have led, but I still wish I did more when I was young to cement my future.

The next generation will also need to get their head around apartment lifestyle. It will not be feasible to keep building homes on large blocks of land. Look at the rest of the worlds cities, they have a huge amount of apartments & townhouses etc. Lifestyle these days is all about indoor technology, especially for kids. Parks are empty these days whereas my childhood was all about playing outside. This in turn will make the transition to apartment living a lot easier for people, especially if the apartments are supported by transport, and nearby parks and sporting ovals, swimming pools etc. This change of lifestyle will become the norm I believe, and is the most likely solution to our housing crisis.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Roostercam

Housing prices will never go backwards in any major 1st world city.

well this is awkward....

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

This thread is funny, I love how the people that have never taken the a risk or have been willing to step out of their safe zone are calling people who have greedy and then express joy when those trying to better themselves fail.

The same people will then complain about their inability to buy into the housing market, and if those doing the hard yards and taking risks have a win they will complain how 'lucky' and 'greedy' they are.

I constantly get people saying I am 'lucky' to own the house and land I do, I am 'lucky' to have 200K worth of classic cars sitting in my garage.

I can promise anyone that there is no 'luck' involved, it's all about hard work and doing what it takes to reach the goals I wanted to reach, There is plenty of stuff I have done without over the decades to be able to do what I want to do. To this day I get up at 04:20am to go to work and I generally get home between 6 and 7 pm, so yes I am 'lucky', has nothing to do with hard work

I don't get the whole people wanting to live in Sydney thing, unfortunately I have lived there for a large part of my life and for the last ten years I was there I worked towards getting out of that cess pool of human garbage.