Decision on Future Falcon Wagon coming soon.

[R-Design]

Originally Posted by Brazen

If I was Mazda, Subaru, Toyota, Skoda, VW and others I will be counting down the days till the Mondeo wagon replaces the Falcon. As a competitor they had no real answer to the Falcon wagon, but with the Mondeo taking over, it will be 'game on' for the other imports to steal Fords fleet business.

You've hit nail on the head Brazen. Welcome to the Forum.

[tweeked]

Come on Ford, build it, arent you listening? there are at least 6 people who want one here!!

The wagon is a relic of when nearly 1 in 5 vehicles sold in Aus was a Falcon derivative. We are now around 1 in 20. Its wheelbase partner is gone. I would love to see them all stay and/or come back, but it will put Ford Aus out of business!!

Im off to start an I want a Falcon Coupe thread.

[NC_Lane]

Slightly siwdeways on the topi, but does anyone have an idea how tough/reliable the mondeo is? I use my AU wagon as a daily hack, haul anything from concrete, to firewood, to dogs, take it camping and so far with close to 300K on the clock its been very reliable.. Can the mondeo do the same?

[outback_ute]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Ford turning into a company which cancels cars instead of developing them further (another American company trait), they let cars whither on the vine with no development then cancel them due to the 'lack of sales'.

Welcome to the Forums Brazen, I must say you have hit the nail on the head there. They seem to be going very conservative, hopefully this will change in line with what seems to be a new-found aggressiveness in Ford US. After all, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

If we accept the wagon cannot continue forever in its current guise what is Ford's best option? If a Falcon wagon was not available, what would be the best option for existing customers? I could see Telstra opting for a Falcon ute and canopy or service body. Mondeo would have to be in the box seat for alternative wagons because it is the biggest of any alternative. If they add the full range of Mondeo engines to the wagon I'm sure it would help, rather than having it stuck with the least desirable one. You have to wonder why they don't already, how much would it cost given it would be not much more than a mix and match situation. I think one of the biggest drawbacks for the Mondeo is that it is not a locally-produced vehicle, with the backup that brings in terms of parts availability, servicing knowledge etc.

A key aspect for the wagon is the death of the Fairlane which has always shared the floorpan etc and in more recent years even the rear doors which helped amortise development costs (wrote this before I saw your post tweeked). Basing a wagon off the ute is not going to work, it doesn't have a rear floorpan. Building a new rear structure onto the sedan is one thing, making a lwb wagon is a much bigger ask.

Don't forget that Holden went down the route of building lots of niche variants of the Commodore a few years back and it bit them - purely through lack of sales aka market size. Eg if they recovered the cost of development on the AWD 1 tonner I'd be (pleasantly) surprised. There has been an initial burst of Sportwagon sales, I’m not sure if they have settled down to a steady level yet.

Ford has to make a decision they can live with for 6-8 years, so in a way you can’t blame them for being conservative. Could a BF wagon hang on for that long?

If it was up to me ideally I would look at sending Falcons to the US under the Mercury nameplate, positioned as a ‘premium but not Euro premium’ vehicle. If Ford can get the platform into the North American market it would make a great deal of difference, and would also make the difference for niche variants. Otherwise with the shifting in the Aus market it is hard to see where the development $$ will come from for another generation of Falcon/Territory for 2016.

[Chopped]

The Territory competitor from Holden is the Captiva (which generally outsells the territory) and not the Sportwagon (which outsells the ford wagon by at least double)

Let's not forget that Cruze outsells the Focus and Mondeo combined !!

The Koreans are coming - look out Japanese marks !!

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Chopped

The Territory competitor from Holden is the Captiva (which generally outsells the territory) and not the Sportwagon (which outsells the ford wagon by at least double)

Let's not forget that Cruze outsells the Focus and Mondeo combined !!

The Koreans are coming - look out Japanese marks !!

And where is the Captiva made??? Not Australia. Ford has decided to built a SUV & Holden has decide to build a Sports wagon.

And what will be Holdens competitor to the Kugo?

[aualright]

Originally Posted by Chopped

The Territory competitor from Holden is the Captiva (which generally outsells the territory) and not the Sportwagon (which outsells the ford wagon by at least double)

Let's not forget that Cruze outsells the Focus and Mondeo combined !!

The Koreans are coming - look out Japanese marks !!

If you owned a Territory like I do you would never contemplate the Captiva being a competitor. It is not in the same class by any classification.

For the record, I would also rather drive a Territory than a so-called sportwagon. I would also bet that my AU XR8 with the rear-seats folded down would fit just as much in the back as a so-called sportwagon. Why compromise ride (including the increased road noise that hatches..I mean sportswagons...have) with a Holden Sportswagon when a Falcon sedan can perform essentially the same functions?

****

****

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by irlewy86

However as a former RTV operator, I'd still like to know why it was dropped.

Poor sales. But it puzzled my why they didn't keep it under the BFIII guise.

Originally Posted by Brazen

You already have Falcons nearest competitor averaging 1400 wagons a month, the customer is telling Ford what to do!

Commodore wagon has dropped under 1000 units. Lets see how it is in a year from now (remember the Territory was selling 2500 units a month at its peak). It has already annoyed fleets for the fact that it has no room in the back. Falcon Wagon has stayed level at 400 units a month, telstra uses it because they make more money from using it. The wagin market isn't that big, the SUV market is bigger and this is why the diesel model is coming, if they can get an LPG model out it would do well.


...............

If the Wagin is to survive it will have to be a drive line upgrade. Cosmetic changes will be to much for its units. At best they could give the front a facelift, but its not really worth it as its the back end that gets complained about. Bringing out a full range of Falcon Wagons would be a waste of time.
I'd say keep the Falcon Wagon as a fleet hack and push the Mondy Wagon for the private buyers, god knows it needs sales.

[ColourHide]

Originally Posted by MONSOON

The territory is great BUT, is heavier on fuel than the falcon wagon & has no LPG option, & if it was a suitable fleet replacement for the falcon wagon surely it would've happened already

That is where im hoping the diesel territory comes into play, if affordably priced.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Poor sales. But it puzzled my why they didn't keep it under the BFIII guise.

For the life of me I can't see that. The amount of RTV's I see on the roads over here is ridiculous.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

For the life of me I can't see that. The amount of RTV's I see on the roads over here is ridiculous.

I think it sold less then 100units a month.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by vztrt

I think it sold less then 100units a month.

About 6 a day max......

[block58]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

About 6 a day max......

Maybe with a bit of advertisement they would have done better.

All I can remember is "Flooded it mate?"

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by vztrt

I think it sold less then 100units a month.

You wouldnt happen to know the current breakdown of each of the ute models would you?

[XR6_190]

RTV wouldn't cost much R+D wise, old RTV parts would fit, and they can ask a decent enough premium. RTV was a brilliant idea I always thought.

As for the Wagon, if Ford could manage to do a minimal FG upgrade, (interior, basic exterior a la XH ute) than it would be worthwhile, as they would have the market to themselves. Still aim it towards fleets, just base models, XT and maybe a G6, but no XR or G6E. At the end of the day though, they would have to make it fiancially viable,
IF this can be done, they WILL build it, otherwise, it will go the way of the Coupe and Panelvan.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Sorry to burst the bubble but......

New Roof is 3 dies.
New door inner and outer is 16 dies
New body sides will be 8 dies
New liftgate inner and outer is 8 dies

At 100k to build a die we are already over 3 mill and not one bit of r & d has been done, nor crash testing etc. Also, you would most likely need to modify the floorpan, etc. It will cost near on 20 - 30 mill just to give it a nice ****-end. Averaging 3k profit on each unit sold, you will need to sell 10,000 before you even earn a cent. And remember, this is only a facelift.........

thought i'd bump this post up as it seems a lot of people missed it first time around. refreshing the wagon is not a cheap task. there are no garaunteed returns if they do either. if they did build it and the specs of the luggage area stayed the same then 400 units a month is a probablility. there is also the strong possibility that additional sales wouldn't be incremental but merely eating into sedan sales.

when the ve wagon was released, everyone raved on about how well it sells and how silly ford is for not getting in on the action. the commodore sales (which include wagon) did not go up, which shows that those buying wagons were just eating into the sedan sales. ford gloated recently about the falcon sedan outselling the commodore sedan. why do you think that is? ve wagon is stealing sales. its not actually adding to the overall sales tally of the commodore. possibly the same would happen in the ford ranks. in the past ford have offered a wide range of wagons - futura, fairmont/ghia, xr6, 6cyl, 8cyl etc etc and if any of those was a viable option, surely they would still be making them.

this isn't about bragging rights down at the local, its about a car company making decisions on what is best for its bottom line.

[block58]

What about stealing sales from the Sportwagon?

If people wanted a wagon then the Sportwagon seems a pretty attractive option. If there was a competitor that wasn't outdated then that opens more sales for Ford. While it may also steal sales from the Sedan it would also give fleets a reason to upgrage.

[new2ford]

Sadly I think the reality is, with Burela talking up the Mondeo as part of a softening-up process, that this is one of the first steps along the path to converting the Australian product range to global platforms and the eventual cessation of local manufacture (the same will happen at Holden). Once federal politics can get past the jobs issue, the plug of financial support to the local industry will be pulled. I'd be buying a Falcon wagon (indeed a Falcon and a Territory) as a collector's item!

What Ford misses in its American-centric view is that the Ford Australia designs are potentially good global platforms themselves. It should be some US models that are kicked into the bin.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by block58

What about stealing sales from the Sportwagon?

If people wanted a wagon then the Sportwagon seems a pretty attractive option. If there was a competitor that wasn't outdated then that opens more sales for Ford. While it may also steal sales from the Sedan it would also give fleets a reason to upgrage.

have you seen in the back of a sporthatch? a sedan would fit just as much. a sporthatch simply isn't an option for many fleets as it just doesn't offer the space.

[block58]

Originally Posted by prydey

have you seen in the back of a sporthatch? a sedan would fit just as much. a sporthatch simply isn't an option for many fleets as it just doesn't offer the space.

Sorry, what I said was confusing.

If Ford released a wagon that was a competitor to the Sportwagon by being a sexy looking wagon yet having much superior storage space then they would most definitely steal sales from people who want a wagon that isn't outdated and actually holds a decent amount of cargo.

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by block58

Sorry, what I said was confusing.

If Ford released a wagon that was a competitor to the Sportwagon by being a sexy looking wagon yet having much superior storage space then they would most definitely steal sales from people who want a wagon that isn't outdated and actually holds a decent amount of cargo.

That still wouldnt be enough sales to justify the program.

Think about it, VE Sportwagon only got approved because it was supposed to be exported. That never happened. Even local sales are mostly cannabilised sedan sales. So Holden spent all that money just to still sell the same amount of cars.

So what part of the equation will suddenly make sense if Ford decide to make a sportwagon?

[naddis01]

When (month and year) was the sportswagon released?

[Gobes32]

Ford in the last three years has become a zero risk company. i.e, If we can't be certain it will sell, we won't build it. I think this stems from the amount of financial manure that Holden found themselves in by building everything that everybody asked for. They found out the hard way that interest in a prototype does not necessarily equate to actual sales........

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Ford in the last three years has become a zero risk company. i.e, If we can't be certain it will sell, we won't build it. I think this stems from the amount of financial manure that Holden found themselves in by building everything that everybody asked for. They found out the hard way that interest in a prototype does not necessarily equate to actual sales........

Spot on. Zero risk is why Ford arent in the poo Holden are in..
The numbers just dont add up to justify a FG wagon, and a FG Hatch to match the commodore hatch would just alienate Ford from genuine Fleet wagon customers like holden have.
Fleets who bought the commodore hatch without knowing its real world cargo limitations wont be return customers...

[bigdude1011]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Spot on. Zero risk is why Ford arent in the poo Holden are in..
The numbers just dont add up to justify a FG wagon, and a FG Hatch to match the commodore hatch would just alienate Ford from genuine Fleet wagon customers like holden have.
Fleets who bought the commodore hatch without knowing its real world cargo limitations wont be return customers...

Plus, the Mondeo wagon is still bigger than Holden's Sports"wagon"

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Spot on. Zero risk is why Ford arent in the poo Holden are in..
The numbers just dont add up to justify a FG wagon, and a FG Hatch to match the commodore hatch would just alienate Ford from genuine Fleet wagon customers like holden have.
Fleets who bought the commodore hatch without knowing its real world cargo limitations wont be return customers...

I havent seen sales projection, development budgets and so forth, so I cant comment on the numbers.
I honestly think that developing a wagon which could be built for another decade and benefit future CEOs is not high on the current managements 'to do' list. Instead focusing on the quick buck and increasing capacity to build more high end cars seems to be the strategy.

I cant believe in todays market that putting all your eggs in one basket and focusing production on high end product is sustainable when the consumer and trends are so fickle. Sure pumping out more G6ETs and XR6Ts is more profitable but what if next year Holden brings out a turbo, or they update the Calais, or market trends change, or a new competitor comes out, or a 'Working Families' governement introduces a power restriction or even lower speed limits, or petrol reaches $2.50 a litre... Suddenly Ford would be in trouble.

Building a durable, stylish, practical, large cargo carrier might not be a sexy proposition for many Ford enthusiasts. But it increases Falcon volumes, increases production ecomomies of scale, plugs a gap in the market, leaves Ford open to ride any market swing back to wagons and it basically sells itself (when was the last time you saw an ad for the Falcon wagon?)

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Building a durable, stylish, practical, large cargo carrier might not be a sexy proposition for many Ford enthusiasts. But it increases Falcon volumes, increases production ecomomies of scale, plugs a gap in the market, leaves Ford open to ride any market swing back to wagons and it basically sells itself (when was the last time you saw an ad for the Falcon wagon?)

Territory?

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I havent seen sales projection, development budgets and so forth, so I cant comment on the numbers.
I honestly think that developing a wagon which could be built for another decade and benefit future CEOs is not high on the current managements 'to do' list. Instead focusing on the quick buck and increasing capacity to build more high end cars seems to be the strategy.

I cant believe in todays market that putting all your eggs in one basket and focusing production on high end product is sustainable when the consumer and trends are so fickle. Sure pumping out more G6ETs and XR6Ts is more profitable but what if next year Holden brings out a turbo, or they update the Calais, or market trends change, or a new competitor comes out, or a 'Working Families' governement introduces a power restriction or even lower speed limits, or petrol reaches $2.50 a litre... Suddenly Ford would be in trouble.

Building a durable, stylish, practical, large cargo carrier might not be a sexy proposition for many Ford enthusiasts. But it increases Falcon volumes, increases production ecomomies of scale, plugs a gap in the market, leaves Ford open to ride any market swing back to wagons and it basically sells itself (when was the last time you saw an ad for the Falcon wagon?)

There are a plethura of SUV's now that cater to what was the "family wagon" market just far too well, a "sexy wagon" just wont cut it in that company. Ford are already present in that market with the Terri @ about 1000 units a month.
The current outdated Falcon wagon is still holding strong @ 400 units a month, that says volumes to me.
Read Gobes32's tooling cost and amortisation scenario, its just not viable if you look at the numbers.

[Gobes32]

Bare in mind that we do not know what price Ford sell BF wagons for either, ignore completely the $40K RRP because it is probably closer to mid 20's........ Who knows? Wagon is only built to keep fleets happy and to keep the lines flowing. Lately the wagons have been dwindling down because Ford are filling their private orders first. So at the end of the day, the wagon's time is coming to an end........

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by naddis01

You wouldnt happen to know the current breakdown of each of the ute models would you?

No I wouldn't, sorry.