Solution to Poor FG Sales ?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Optimism is an admirable quality boss. I on the other hand, look at websites like the following:
http://www.ford.com.au/servlet/Conte...YPage&site=FOA

and wonder why someone has to pull sales forward, and lowers prices when order books are full.

Buggered if I know why they are doing it, but I know for a fact that order books are already full well in advance. In mid December last year, January and Febuary order books were already closed off and March orders were being taken.

Do you think orders just fall to nothing overnight?

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

What are you basing that on. Look at the facts. Ford measure quality with TGW ratings. Things gone wrong per 1000 vehicles. FG is the lowest ever TGW rating, it totally smashes the BA and BF and anything before it, and its even better than Toyota Camry and Aurion. Warranty claims are also at their lowest levels ever.

Are these figures public? I would be interested to see them.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

So instead of speeding up the line it is easier to add a Saturday or two.
Boss, would they ever consider 9 or 10 hour days or would the body shop start to run behind?

Its so much eaier to just add OT rather than re-balance, and a hell of a lot cheaper too. Less staff to pay as well.

We in the engine plant sometimes do 10 or 12 hour shifts if we need extra engines to feed the hungry monster up the road, but not sure about them, it would be harder due to supplier issues. Suppliers who supply direct to the line would need a lot of forward notice i'd assume. And then you need enough people to fill the line.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Are these figures public? I would be interested to see them.

No the're not. The manufacturers share them between each other but only on the proviso that they do not use them against each other, so you won't see Ford advertising that they have the best australian built quality because that would mean they have broken the agreement, and the other manufacturers would cease providing them with the info.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Its so much eaier to just add OT rather than re-balance, and a hell of a lot cheaper too. Less staff to pay as well.

We in the engine plant sometimes do 10 or 12 hour shifts if we need extra engines to feed the hungry monster up the road, but not sure about them, it would be harder due to supplier issues. Suppliers who supply direct to the line would need a lot of forward notice i'd assume. And then you need enough people to fill the line.

OK, I see that things are not as easy as people might think...
Still sounds easier to organise than rebalancing a line. Extra money is always good too.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Buggered if I know why they are doing it, but I know for a fact that order books are already full well in advance. In mid December last year, January and Febuary order books were already closed off and March orders were being taken.

Do you think orders just fall to nothing overnight?

I have no information to doubt what you are saying Boss. However if i read you right, it just seems really odd, that in december they would be telling people they cant get their car until March, After all Burella was quoted as saying the following last November

The Ford plant is currently building between 270 and 280 units a day, says Burela, and the company is looking at ways of improving on that between now and the end of the year. He also said that while there are no non-production days for the plant this year -- or the next -- he's not yet quite so optimistic about Ford's sales over the next 12 months that the company will introduce overtime for its production staff.

"We have the ability and the flexibility to rebalance very quickly, if we need to, but at this point in time, we're very comfortable with where we are."

.

Obviusly the engineers at Ford need to put smaller tolerances on the words ability, flexibility and rebalance very quicklym when the specs are sent production planning.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Build rate is 270 a day. To put that number up requires a re-balance of the line and extra workers. It is very time consuming to do because extra jobs have to be added and all the work required needs to be moved around, and timings need to be spot on. Every movement is timed and added together to fit into a certain time frame per car, which is around 90 seconds at the moment. And to add to that some things can only be fitted in a particular sequence. It is massively complicated. Get it wrong by a couple of seconds and it can over stress that area resulting in a slower line rate and quality issues, or further re-balancing. I've been through 3 re-balances and they are a nightmare to get right.

People simply dont understand how extremely complex it is to manage the line and implement any kind of line rate increase.... It takes an enourmous amount of planning, co-ordination and many many months....

[jpd80]

I understand now that it's easier to add production hours than any
increase or and decrease in line speed, thanks for the heads up guys.
And of course, overtime in busy periods is always welcome..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I have no information to doubt what you are saying Boss. However if i read you right, it just seems really odd, that in december they would be telling people they cant get their car until March, After all Burella was quoted as saying the following last November

.

Obviusly the engineers at Ford need to put smaller tolerances on the words ability, flexibility and rebalance very quicklym when the specs are sent production planning.

There is a difference between planned breaks and unscheduled stoppages.
I recall that an A/C part on the back of the HID stopped the line for 10 days
or so in Jan/Feb (?) while it was rectified on already built vehicles.
Stuff like that where supplier problems prevent full availability really holds up orders.

I do agree with every one's assertions that Ford needs to build more car each month
but it's how they achieve that without making further disruptions is crucial to continued supply.
Ramping up suppliers is another issue that is crucial to a successful increase in output.

So many issues to get right but do that and the plant makes good income...

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

There is a difference between planned breaks and unscheduled stoppages.
I recall that an A/C part on the back of the HID stopped the line for 10 days
or so in Jan/Feb (?) while it was rectified on already built vehicles.

2.5 days only.. but that's potentially 650 sales that need to be picked back up.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

2.5 days only.. but that's potentially 650 sales that need to be picked back up.

Ah, sorry - I'd heard at the time that it would "disrupt" production for about 10 days.
That must have been worst possible case but still a shortfall of 650 vehicles
on a month's production makes a heck of a difference to the figures.

I often wonder at people's perceptions, just yesterday the boards were full of posts with
people believing that Ford made heaps of XTs for fleets and what not using that as a basis for
being critical of Ford's perceived low production but when production is properly viewed as
mostly advanced orders to private or novated lease purchases, it all makes much more sense.

I'm sure that if Ford were in GM's postion: an XT with a 3.0 V6 and 6-speed auto in it, they too
would be chasing down another 1,500 to 2,000 sales a month from everyone with a heart beat.
Perhaps the ZF XT is a gentle toe in the water feeling out fleet sale customers but could also
be a precursor for the Ecoboost I-4 Falcon fleet based vehicle to undercut the 3.0 SIDI's fuel economy..

We moan and groan about 2500 sedan sale last month but if there was a extra 1200 sales due
to fleet purchases of Falcons, I think that 3700 figure would compare well to Commodore's 4200.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by jpd80

We moan and groan about 2500 sedan sale last month but if there was a extra 1200 sales due
to fleet purchases of Falcons, I think that 3700 figure would compare well to Commodore's 4200.

ONLY if Ford made money doing it.....

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

ONLY if Ford made money doing it.....

There are fleet sales and there are fleet sales.
Remember just a few years ago (before VE) Holden were offering up to 40% off Commodores to Telstra
but at the time Ford kept to 20-25% discount limit and lost a lot of custom. I'm pretty sure that Holden
then trimmed that discount back to the same amount, they have a habit of doing low ball fleet sales.
Same thing happened when Ford walked away from taxi sales, they couldn't justify the discounts.

Since a lot of Gov cos now buy Toyota, Ford and Holden are now into private fleets and novated buyers.
It will be interesting to see how XT and Ecoboost I-4 Falcon fits into these plans.
Ford seems to be doing better looking after private and novated buyers offering them discounts,
i think those discounts are nothing like what Holden offers their fleet buyers btw...

[GS608]

I guess that lack of Govt fleet cars can be shown in the serious lack of FG patrol cars (at least in QLD) most are toyota's with a few commodores thrown in and even less Falcons, the only place where i see lots of FG's is the HWP yard, thats stacked to the brim with XR6T and SS's. Theres also a serious lack of FG Falcon taxi's I've only seen one on the whole of the Gold Coast. That would improve public perception a bit i reckon

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by XR-CHIEF

I guess that lack of Govt fleet cars can be shown in the serious lack of FG patrol cars (at least in QLD) most are toyota's with a few commodores thrown in and even less Falcons, the only place where i see lots of FG's is the HWP yard, thats stacked to the brim with XR6T and SS's. Theres also a serious lack of FG Falcon taxi's I've only seen one on the whole of the Gold Coast. That would improve public perception a bit i reckon

I have it on good authority that a person in charge of Qld Gov fleet purchase
decisions has retired and taken his preferences and prejudices along with him...

It's good to see more Falcon and Commodore patrol cars now filtering through..

[Road_Warrior]

Ok, so increasing the line rate is too complex and expensive at this point in time, so that option is out of the question.

How many standard shifts are operating at Broady?

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Ok, so increasing the line rate is too complex and expensive at this point in time, so that option is out of the question.

How many standard shifts are operating at Broady?

The thing about increasing shifts is finding and training staff to work the line.
OT is a good solution to a point however fatigue can have a flow on effect with QC and the extra wage burden can create its own issues.
Ideally a full extra shift is the best solution however doubling sales over night to absorb production, finding and training suitable staff to run it without QC issues and getting component supply in a timely manner makes it near on impossible in the short term.
So OT is the best bandaid at this stage.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

The thing about increasing shifts is finding and training staff to work the line.
OT is a good solution to a point however fatigue can have a flow on effect with QC and the extra wage burden can create its own issues.
Ideally a full extra shift is the best solution however doubling sales over night to absorb production, finding and training suitable staff to run it without QC issues and getting component supply in a timely manner makes it near on impossible in the short term.
So OT is the best bandaid at this stage.

Is it possible to do a very slow rebalance, ie lift the line by tiny amounts over a longer period?
would that enable crews to train others and slowly pick up the pace, suppliers similar.

Thinking increments of 2 or 3 cars extra each day...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I have no information to doubt what you are saying Boss. However if i read you right, it just seems really odd, that in december they would be telling people they cant get their car until March, After all Burella was quoted as saying the following last November

.

Obviusly the engineers at Ford need to put smaller tolerances on the words ability, flexibility and rebalance very quicklym when the specs are sent production planning.

When he said that last year Ford were not sure where the market was going and how the investment allowance was going to impact the market once it was over. Consumer confidence wasn't certain yet either.

As has been proven over the last few months the market is returning strongly and Ford have been exposed as being too conservative.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Is it possible to do a very slow rebalance, ie lift the line by tiny amounts over a longer period?
would that enable crews to train others and slowly pick up the pace, suppliers similar.

Thinking increments of 2 or 3 cars extra each day...

They have done little re-adjustments here and there to squeeze a few extra cars out per day recently, maybe up to 5-10 extra cars but i can't confirm the number.

But you can't really do small re-balances as it requires just as much work as a large one, and when your talking an extra couple of cars a day you would need to divide that into milliseconds per car, not seconds, which makes it even more complex.

For example, their might be 10 jobs in one section, taking 60 seconds per car to do the work required. If you need to re-balance and add an extra job and drop the time down to 55 seconds you then need to shuffle the work required within that section across 11 jobs, so you need to time every little movement and try to add them together in a sequence that works into 55 seconds. Only being able to fit certain parts in a particular order complicates it, as does finding storage space for certain parts if they are moved somewhere else, as some areas are very tight on space, or need room for a forklift to supply them. Then you need to factor in that different workers work at different speeds and take that into account so that each job is manageable by everyone. That might help give you a clue about how complex and time consuming it is to do. There might be 40 parts a certain section has to fit to the car and there might be 100 different ways it could be done.

Certain machines might need to have their cycle times adjusted too.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

They have done little re-adjustments here and there to squeeze a few extra cars out per day recently, maybe up to 5-10 extra cars but i can't confirm the number.

But you can't really do small re-balances as it requires just as much work as a large one, and when your talking an extra couple of cars a day you would need to divide that into milliseconds per car, not seconds, which makes it even more complex.

For example, their might be 10 jobs in one section, taking 60 seconds per car to do the work required. If you need to re-balance and add an extra job and drop the time down to 55 seconds you then need to shuffle the work required within that section across 11 jobs, so you need to time every little movement and try to add them together in a sequence that works into 55 seconds. Only being able to fit certain parts in a particular order complicates it, as does finding storage space for certain parts if they are moved somewhere else, as some areas are very tight on space, or need room for a forklift to supply them. Then you need to factor in that different workers work at different speeds and take that into account so that each job is manageable by everyone. That might help give you a clue about how complex and time consuming it is to do. There might be 40 parts a certain section has to fit to the car and there might be 100 different ways it could be done.

Certain machines might need to have their cycle times adjusted too.

Yeah, I though the step up wouldn't be simple and linear, now I begin to understand rebalancing...

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by jpd80

There is a difference between planned breaks and unscheduled stoppages.
I recall that an A/C part on the back of the HID stopped the line for 10 days
or so in Jan/Feb (?) while it was rectified on already built vehicles.
Stuff like that where supplier problems prevent full availability really holds up orders.
...

I guess what they really need is government subsidies, dressed up as supplier chain improvement grants, to alleviate these issues. http://www.caradvice.com.au/59768/au...ement-program/

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I have no information to doubt what you are saying Boss. However if i read you right, it just seems really odd, that in december they would be telling people they cant get their car until March, After all Burella was quoted as saying the following last November

I think people need to understand there is a difference between Ford HQ having a full order book & Ford dealers actually having sold thoses cars. A full order book from Ford HQ, just means they are all sold to Ford dealers & not to the end customer..

I bought an XR6T in Nov & got it built in Dec.. There was no car getting built to the spec I wanted, but, becuase the dealer had aonther similar Falcon on order, they where able to change the spec & I got it in less than 6 weeks, during a time I kept reading 3 month wiat for Turbo falcons!!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I think people need to understand there is a difference between Ford HQ having a full order book & Ford dealers actually having sold thoses cars. A full order book from Ford HQ, just means they are all sold to Ford dealers & not to the end customer..

I bought an XR6T in Nov & got it built in Dec.. There was no car getting built to the spec I wanted, but, becuase the dealer had aonther similar Falcon on order, they where able to change the spec & I got it in less than 6 weeks, during a time I kept reading 3 month wiat for Turbo falcons!!

That's the point, now that the market is freshening Ford need to increase their
output slightly to ease waiting times, they are a bit on the conservative side
now and it's obviously straining nerves and possibly costing a few sales.

Still, it's a great position to be in where almost every one of your vehicles is pre sold.
Tell that to Americans and they'd be gob smacked, they can't operate without an inventory bank.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by cycle myth

I'm getting excited if Ford has a full order book to need additional shifts.

I'm a little confused though as if the plant can do 400 units a day and there are say 20 production days in a month that would be 8,000 units.

I know that the same production line does Territory and ute so there is a share of the 8,000 units - but even with a generous split how does this equal the current market share?

Maybe I'm not considering all the sales of Territory and ute properly?

The maximum the plant can do is 550 cars gross (they won't hit that figure, but on a perfect day it would be). There is only one line at Ford (not like Jap cars that have different models on different lines).

Originally Posted by dannyhilton

Supplier issues can kill a weeks shift at the blink of an eye. People have mentioned Ford lost a week in January for this reason, February is a shorter month and they have lost two days in April. Those things add up. You do have a very good point though, even taking those things into account their volume should be higher?

Also Feb had three down days (not due to supplier issues). But 3 days means that the Saturday shifts that they had fixed the lost days. Now with the Wagin gone it'll free up some more units.

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Ok, so increasing the line rate is too complex and expensive at this point in time, so that option is out of the question.

How many standard shifts are operating at Broady?

There is one shift on assembling the car, two on paint shop. Engines not sure but it seems like one shift with plenty of o/t.

[Nikked]

I don't think Ford can all of a sudden get the FG to sell as good as a Commodore, but they can build up consumer confindance for the next model.

Ford need to convince the general public about the Falcon brand and what it means and address quality/warrenty issues as well. Having negative media views about the Falcon's future doesn't help either. Ford need to come out and give us a clear indication of the next 10 years. No "It could be" type media statements.

[Full Noise]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

People simply dont understand how extremely complex it is to manage the line and implement any kind of line rate increase.... It takes an enourmous amount of planning, co-ordination and many many months....

On this note, Ford, like many, run their business on a “just in time” basis, so there’s only so many trucks to supply the plant’s requirements on a daily basis. Quite a lot their parts come from SA so it’s also a matter of those suppliers increasing their output.

They can, to a degree increase this, however, it isn’t without major costs so I dare say, it would be something that would be looked at in the long term.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

2.5 days only.. but that's potentially 650 sales that need to be picked back up.

Yet despite this, the combined sales YTD for the Falcon, Ute & Territory are up 1400 over Q1-2009 for a tally of 12,052. Had that disruption not occurred then if the same split had been made 400 extra Falcons would've been made. Edging them closer to 2800 a month (Feb/March)and Territory would've cracked 1000 sales in March.

[jpd80]

Very encouraging that Territory still gets near 1000 sales without a diesel version.
This time next year, new Territory should be on the fly....

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

The thing about increasing shifts is finding and training staff to work the line.
OT is a good solution to a point however fatigue can have a flow on effect with QC and the extra wage burden can create its own issues.

Excellent point, take for instance stamping operations. There will be a small number of lines that produce skin panels. These are generally very much stop-start operations due to the nature of skin finish. Lots of cleaning etc. So these lines used to run across three shifts, day, arvo and nights. However, due to downsizing, night shift is gone and when you decide to ramp up production, as ford are doing now, you have to get day and arvo's to cover the night shift. This means that day shift start at 3.30 am till 4pm and arvos work from 4pm till 4.30am. Doing this once or twice a week is ok, but 5 days a week and you start shortening peoples life spans.... lol