Covid 19 - - Page 412

Bossxr8 · 15-07-2021, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Actually I'm wondering how many more of these "bad lucks" then becomes a conspiracy. The SA hotel breach only impacted Vic too.

Good news is it looks like Vic Gov is trying not to impose full lock down. Hopefully they have caught this one soon enough to be able to ring fence the close contacts, lets see. The Blues vs Cats game is a bit worrying though, because blues fans are from a certain demographic which have a high likelihood to have also attended the Lygon st festivities on Monday morning. A couple of people I know went to both, although they weren't sitting in the direct exposure location at the MCG.

Lockdown or no lockdown, I think people will naturally move less. Some don't want to catch CV, but many just don't want to get caught at an exposure site where you'd then be forced to do 2 weeks isolation. People will impose their own "stay at home" until cases go back to 0, and that will hit businesses.

This post aged terribly.

Full lockdown for all of Victoria from mignight. Thanks NSW.

**DJR-351** · 15-07-2021, 03:15 PM

Citroënbender · 15-07-2021, 03:31 PM

Roll on, UK’s “Freedom Day”. Our incumbent will struggle if that’s a success.

**Polyal** · 15-07-2021, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Roll on, UK’s “Freedom Day”. Our incumbent will struggle if that’s a success.

I cant believe ScoMo had the audacity to diss the UK's plans to open up with "only" ~60% of the population having 2 shots....where are we again?

T3rminator · 15-07-2021, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

This post aged terribly.

Full lockdown for all of Victoria from mignight. Thanks NSW.

BUGGA! Although would have preferred you cherry picked this one instead, it was a lot more definitive

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

..............

Lock down is a given for Vic now. Its gone to baccus marsh and barwon heads. Really feeling for the businesses now, shows were just getting back under way, foodie festival was to kick off in August.....etc etc

Anyhow, I'm all set. See ya on the other side!

Regards,
AFF arm chair expert

slowsnake · 15-07-2021, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I cant believe ScoMo had the audacity to diss the UK's plans to open up with "only" ~60% of the population having 2 shots....where are we again?

Just above Antarctica!...

Cheers Billy

zilo · 15-07-2021, 08:16 PM

Can't believe my bad luck...over in melb for 4 days cause missus has to have a medical procedure and they pull this lockdown crap on us.

cant wait to get out of this dung hole called melbourne.

How do you guys live here...its awful....everything about it is crap.

This eastern suburbs Ringwood/Croydon is like a rat run.

Can't wait to find a way out....where's the EXIT?

oldel · 15-07-2021, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldel

... or Sydney siders who have fled lockdown bringing it with them.

Didn't take long to flush one out

Itsme · 15-07-2021, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Can't believe my bad luck...over in melb for 4 days cause missus has to have a medical procedure and they pull this lockdown crap on us.

cant wait to get out of this dung hole called melbourne.

How do you guys live here...its awful....everything about it is crap.

This eastern suburbs Ringwood/Croydon is like a rat run.

Can't wait to find a way out....where's the EXIT?

Welcome to covid and exit to quarantine in your home state.... life suxs hey!

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I cant believe ScoMo had the audacity to diss the UK's plans to open up with "only" ~60% of the population having 2 shots....where are we again?

The guy is a joke. I lost all respect for him many months ago, especially the buck passing and the "It's not a race" comments.

The trip OS was the final nail in the coffin in terms of my opinion of him.

I can't watch the news any more in fear of putting my fist through the screen if he is holding a press conference.

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 10:53 AM

Been tested 3 times this week...

Now I know what it's like if you are abducted by aliens....

**russellw** · 16-07-2021, 11:33 AM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 15th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

84 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 2.894%.

4 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.931% and active cases 45.

The UK had a higher 47,891 cases yesterday and higher 63 deaths for a CMR of 2.456%.

A higher 37,432 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 403 deaths sees CMR at 1.790%.

Other notable points:
The last three days have seen global case number back over 500k / day;
Africa sets a new daily high of 47,661 cases;
India passes 31M cases;

Isle of Man (116);
Laos (116);
Cyprus (1,152);
Fiji (1,220);
Vietnam (3,416);
Kazakhstan (5,314);
Malaysia (13,215); and
Indonesia (56,757)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Malta moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

Citroënbender · 16-07-2021, 11:39 AM

More quality journalism.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The ABC

…Twenty-nine of the people who tested positive were out in the community for the entire time they were in the community.

Well, yes.

Source

On the brighter side, heavy testing rates must be flushing out these ones.

T3rminator · 16-07-2021, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Can't believe my bad luck...over in melb for 4 days cause missus has to have a medical procedure and they pull this lockdown crap on us.

cant wait to get out of this dung hole called melbourne.

How do you guys live here...its awful....everything about it is crap.

This eastern suburbs Ringwood/Croydon is like a rat run.

Can't wait to find a way out....where's the EXIT?

Lol Ringwood. Used to be a pretty rough area. Good for 3 things. Costco, wreckers and souvalki station. Enjoy!

**russellw** · 16-07-2021, 12:05 PM

I'm not sure that the UK strategy is going to be a whole lot of good in the short term even if it might be a better long term approach.

Case numbers have been on the increase since early June when they were ~7k per day and they have been above 30k for the last 9 days and above 40k the last two.

The only positive is that there had only been 752 deaths from the 338k cases during the previous rolling 14-day period which is a CMR of 0.222% so although there have been a further 450k cases in the last 14 days, if that CMR holds up then there would only be another ~1,000 deaths from those cases.

At least it can serve as an example of what might be achieved and if a >10 fold drop in CMR is what happens in a 65% vaccinated country then perhaps there is some daylight ahead.

It's still rubbery numbers though and it might well be another 3 months before the numbers get clearer.

We still don't know what percentage of those who get COVID have long term impacts from it and whether that is an acceptable societal risk.

Even a 10 fold drop here would still leave us at 0.3% CMR so is that an acceptable level? I guess the answer depends on what case numbers you get. If we got the ~100 cases a day that we have now then we'd have ~110 deaths per annum which is probably an acceptable level but if uncontrolled outbreaks led to Victoria 2020 levels of 500+ cases a day does that equation change? (500/day would equate to ~550 deaths per annum)

I'm not professing to have answers - just posing the questions.

Citroënbender · 16-07-2021, 12:37 PM

I believe that psychologically, the UK’s position marks a shift from the prior near-global position of “Oh no! We’re in serious trouble!” to “Let’s get through this, even if there are low points”.

naddis01 · 16-07-2021, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Been tested 3 times this week...

Now I know what it's like if you are abducted by aliens....

They have a rectal covid test now?

T3rminator · 16-07-2021, 04:23 PM

Cases vs deaths in the UK. Copied off another site, so validate the numbers for yourself. Speaking to a couple of, relatively conservative, work colleagues in the UK last night, they are ready to want to open up. The "fear" is no longer there.

T3rminator · 16-07-2021, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

More quality journalism.

Well, yes.

Source

On the brighter side, heavy testing rates must be flushing out these ones.

Did I hear correctly today, when asked why luxury good retailers were still open, the response was "data does not show the virus spreads in retail settings"

Yet there are close to 200 unlinked cases. It feels like Dr Chant is going to crack it at some stage, constantly being thrown under the bus at the pressers. I hope she kept documented evidence of her actual health advice.

Once Vic opens up, there is nothing to stop another incursion, except a gold plated border, but that won't happen for the sake of regional livelihoods. We are being held to ransom.

slowsnake · 16-07-2021, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I believe that psychologically, the UK’s position marks a shift from the prior near-global position of “Oh no! We’re in serious trouble!” to “Let’s get through this, even if there are low points”.

" We will fight it on the beaches " quote by some unknown Englishman!

Cheers Billy.

slowsnake · 16-07-2021, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Cases vs deaths in the UK. Copied off another site, so validate the numbers for yourself. Speaking to a couple of, relatively conservative, work colleagues in the UK last night, they are ready to want to open up. The "fear" is no longer there.

image

Mmm, looks like a "lie detector test" to me!

Cheers Billy.

T3rminator · 16-07-2021, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Mmm, looks like a "lie detector test" to me!

Cheers Billy.

With the amount of cases and deaths earlier on, it was impossible to conduct a clinical assessment on every single death. So this is how they count.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov...vid-19-deaths/

Quote:

The additional indicators which will be used to calculate daily death figures are:

* the number of deaths in people with COVID-19 that occur within 28 days of a first positive laboratory-confirmed test. This is intended to provide a headline indicator of the immediate impact of recent epidemic activity. Deaths that occur more than 28 days after a positive test will not be included in this count.

* the number of deaths that occur within 60 days of a first positive test. Deaths that occur after 60 days will also be added to this figure if COVID-19 appears on the death certificate. This will provide a more complete measure of the burden of the disease over time.

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naddis01

They have a rectal covid test now?

If they knew what went into my mouth and what comes out the other end they wouldn't be swabbing me a second or 3rd time down there that's for certain

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Cases vs deaths in the UK. Copied off another site, so validate the numbers for yourself. Speaking to a couple of, relatively conservative, work colleagues in the UK last night, they are ready to want to open up. The "fear" is no longer there.

image

Wow, assuming those graphs are correct that certainly puts things into perspective.

We are a long way off our freedom day. I think we just ticked over 13% full vaccination, but what's the single dose stat? Must be nearing 40% by now?

If that's the case and the fast tracking of the second AZ dose works then we should be at near 50% in 2 months.

See what happens!

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Wow, assuming those graphs are correct that certainly puts things into perspective.

We are a long way off our freedom day. I think we just ticked over 13% full vaccination, but what's the single dose stat? Must be nearing 40% by now?

If that's the case and the fast tracking of the second AZ dose works then we should be at near 50% in 2 months.

See what happens!

https://www.health.gov.au/initiative...accine-rollout

Are they specifically not showing information as a percentage to try and confuse the readers?

Any other site that is near live that shows data as a percentage?

pottery beige · 16-07-2021, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I cant believe ScoMo had the audacity to diss the UK's plans to open up with "only" ~60% of the population having 2 shots....where are we again?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

The guy is a joke. I lost all respect for him many months ago, especially the buck passing and the "It's not a race" comments.

The trip OS was the final nail in the coffin in terms of my opinion of him.

I can't watch the news any more in fear of putting my fist through the screen if he is holding a press conference.

peanuts inbound from cheap seats

T3rminator · 16-07-2021, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

https://www.health.gov.au/initiative...accine-rollout

Are they specifically not showing information as a percentage to try and confuse the readers?

Any other site that is near live that shows data as a percentage?

Better to use https://covidlive.com.au/

You can drill down by state and percentage is also provided.

Yellow_Festiva · 16-07-2021, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Better to use https://covidlive.com.au/

You can drill down by state and percentage is also provided.

Thanks!

I was close. Almost 13% full vaccination and Almost 35% first dose.

Hoping for 40% full vaccination in 2 months.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

tweeked · 16-07-2021, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

Even a 10 fold drop here would still leave us at 0.3% CMR so is that an acceptable level? I guess the answer depends on what case numbers you get. If we got the ~100 cases a day that we have now then we'd have ~110 deaths per annum which is probably an acceptable level but if uncontrolled outbreaks led to Victoria 2020 levels of 500+ cases a day does that equation change? (500/day would equate to ~550 deaths per annum)

I'm not professing to have answers - just posing the questions.

It is a question with no pleasant answers.

Some perspective on 550 deaths per annum, to just scrape into the 20th leading cause of death, 2143 is the number needed per annum. Top ten, 3580. Lung cancer is number 4 at 8739.

So I would expect that all forms of smoking should be banned well before NOT opening up when we get to around 70% vaccinated. What impacts on our overall way of life more, stopping everyone smoking or continual lockdowns and travel bans?

(being a personal choice person I say let em smoke and open everything up at 70)

b0son · 16-07-2021, 08:00 PM

IMO, once the rate of vaccination starts to fall noticeably, it's clear that for the most part, most of the people who intend to get the vaccine will have done so. I'm not interested in protecting the stupid from themselves.

You can't expect to benefit from herd immunity while refusing to contribute toward it.