Australia housing bubble

[Citroënbender]

What’s your scheme to meet the “Over 50s” criteria? Marry a cougar or senior bear?

If you’re within about an hour’s cycling of a regional centre including hospital, Centrelink, you’re pretty well covered against loss of licence or reduced employment.

The downside is a 100km round trip to Bunnings...

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Modular/prefab home, have also been investigating these options.

I'm open to thinking outside the box.

The numbers don't add up. If you truly compare like for like they are dearer. Kit homes are appallingly expensive. Even prefab frames usually end up dearer than onsite construction. All this stuff SHOULD be cheaper but it never is.

I know you aren't talking about kit homes but last I ran the numbers maybe 5 years ago and I could only find about 1/3rd the asking price in what is supplied. So a $100k kit home had about $35k in materials. Even I was shocked.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

FC, traditional owner-builder not an option? Surely you could scrape around the traps (eg forums like this) for necessary subbies to take the lottery out of that aspect?

Owner building can save you massive $$ IF you know what you are doing. Shopping for deals, quantity surveying and critical paths.

It is less difficult to find good tradespeople than it is to get them to finish in a timely manner. They seem to "start" the job then disappear. No other tradesperson will touch a job that's been "started" so you are stuck. If I were owner building I'd do a contract then offer them 10% cash off the books if they finish in a reasonable time and do a good job. That way the tax office gets paperwork and joe blogs gets beer money...

[Franco Cozzo]

I'm effectively a 'project manager' at work for new products from concept, business model and market intel to being in the hands of a customer but it's only dealing with the retards within my industry - I don't think I could pull off the 'owner builder' project without burning myself.

My strengths are in 'networking' (nepotism) - I don't have contacts within construction like I have the thousand eyes on the piece of **** rolled in glitter we know as 'automotive'

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

What’s your scheme to meet the “Over 50s” criteria? Marry a cougar or senior bear?

If you’re within about an hour’s cycling of a regional centre including hospital, Centrelink, you’re pretty well covered against loss of licence or reduced employment.

The downside is a 100km round trip to Bunnings...

Get the oldies to do the wheeling and dealing, then I'll drive in with the Lebonator - only old white men own LWB sedans

Otherwise my other two options are:

A) Play the race card
B) Complain on age discrimination grounds

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Those of you who live in SA - what's the opinions on Gawler region? Is that still Adelaide or is it the regional fringe of Adelaide?

Doesn't seem far out, like Sunbury region here in Melbourne being about 40km North of Melbourne.

There's a heap of 'over 50s' retirement living advertised in some place called Hillier - I could breathe some life into that joint

Gawler is regional fringe as far as Im concerned. A bit like Victor Harbor is the same but Victor Harbor has beaches and a decent level of tourism.

Gawler is on the cusp of farm areas but still has its own infrastructure and about 45mins from the city via the Northern Expressway. Is close to the Barossa Valley/Tanunda/Nuriootpa wine region.

There isnt a huge amount out there to look at if you arent into visiting cellar doors. Good food from some of the local restaurants and cafes though.

[BA-XT]

Originally Posted by zilo

Oh? wages haven't been going up by 8% long term, where do you reckon the money will be coming from to keep that ball rolling along?

When you say drop by 5% a year do you mean they drop by 5% as well as not achieving the 8% compounding...cause that is 13%

Yes wages have been stagnating for years. The entry level price for a 3 bed house in the western suburbs of Melbourne is around $470 - $500k. Getting the deposit is the hard part.

I remember looking at these types of houses a few years ago and it was around the $400-$420k mark.

My maths is poor average at best, but I see what you mean by the 13%. Long term though it goes up. Also being able to do things to your own home. I'm sure it's nothing new to a lot of people here... but being able to shop for curtains was a nice thing. Putting up pictures and even failing digging up a large yukka plant is quite the novelty to me :-)

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Those of you who live in SA - what's the opinions on Gawler region? Is that still Adelaide or is it the regional fringe of Adelaide?

Doesn't seem far out, like Sunbury region here in Melbourne being about 40km North of Melbourne.

There's a heap of 'over 50s' retirement living advertised in some place called Hillier - I could breathe some life into that joint

And grab a granny...........

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Those of you who live in SA - what's the opinions on Gawler region? Is that still Adelaide or is it the regional fringe of Adelaide?

Doesn't seem far out, like Sunbury region here in Melbourne being about 40km North of Melbourne.

There's a heap of 'over 50s' retirement living advertised in some place called Hillier - I could breathe some life into that joint

I'm down the other side of Adelaide and will never live anywhere north of the CBD particularly past Grand Junction Rd.

When you live in Gawler you have no need to travel "all that way" to the city, everything you need is where you are.
One of my BILs lived in Hillier for awhile, nice area and loved visiting...pretty quiet from what I could tell.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

I'm down the other side of Adelaide and will never live anywhere north of the CBD particularly past Grand Junction Rd.

When you live in Gawler you have no need to travel "all that way" to the city, everything you need is where you are.
One of my BILs lived in Hillier for awhile, nice area and loved visiting...pretty quiet from what I could tell.

Ah yes I see this 'Grand Junction Road' mentioned by various people living in Adelaide, someone said they need to build a wall and keep everyone on the North side of this border out of the city

I see you have rivalry going between North and South like we have depending on which side of our lovely brown river you are from

What's the consensus of working North but living South and opposite? From my limited driving around Adelaide it's easy to navigate but lacks freeways that Melbourne has - ie everything is traffic light to traffic light rather hauling *** down the multi lane freeway.

How long would it take to go from southern suburbs to it's industrial northern suburbs like Port Adelaide for example?

Is it like Melbourne where it can be 2-3 hours going East - West and the opposite way in peak hour or is it only 45 mins or so?

Also what's the opinions on areas like Taperoo? Appears to be cheap for an area that's a couple streets in from the beach?

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

And grab a granny...........

I'll have you know some of the ladies of a certain age (similar to mine) are very nice propositions thank you.

I'll take a 55 yo all day ahead of those 20 somethings I see about the place.

You young people (shakes fist, adjusts denture)...

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Most important of all.

Your place, your terms, your ability to do as you please.

Priceless.

Plenty of people looking to gouge home owners though..


As in my case the council rates jumped from 1800 a year to 4500 in 3 years.

Thats almost 100 bucks a week for nothing...I remember paying that in rent.


Point is with all the increases in house prices all the hanger ons like govt charge you on the basis of some so called "valuation" and a fictitious net annual value??

I recently built a $15k shed...got a revised rates notice...half way through the year for another 50 bucks!!

[zilo]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

I'll take a 55 yo all day ahead of those 20 somethings I see about the place.

...

nah...you obviously never tried two 27 year olds (concurrently)?

[guzzis3]

It occurs to me some of you might not be aware of the formula.

People buy emotionally, usually it's the female making the decision. They "fall in love" with a house. Banks don't, and since most people need finance the bank appointed valuer stops a lot of people paying over the odds.

So start with the land. Land makes money, houses cost money.

The valuer knows what the average block in the area is worth and then corrects for views (+20-30%), HV powerlines, Toxic waste dumps, busy roads. Slope is easy just calculate the extra building costs and deduct a bit more for loss of amenity. BAL40/flamezone cost about $70k last I looked probably more now. Flood prone, eco BS. You gotta check all that out. you can get recent sold prices off realestate.com.au etc. Pay no attention to asking prices. Lots of optimists.

Now the house. 1 bed is about $100k. Add $50k for every bedroom except the 4th which adds $70k. Everyone wants 4 bed 2 bath. Fibro deduct about $60k, weatherboards probably minus $15-20k. Architect houses get more. No idea why. Those AH's make everything twice as expensive and half as useful, but idiots think they are good. You also have to assess condition.

Add it up and you know what the place is probably worth. If you are really keen on a house call your bank and ask which valuer they use. Get them to do a valuation. I guess they might be $500 or something now but if you buy that house the bank will want a valuation anyway, so no money wasted if you use their firm. If you decide not to buy you've done your money but it might save you a bomb of money. If you tell The valuer who you plan to borrow through they will probably talk to you pre charges and give you some clues. Valuers are really worth talking to even if you pay for their time.

2c.

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

What's the consensus of working North but living South and opposite? From my limited driving around Adelaide it's easy to navigate but lacks freeways that Melbourne has - ie everything is traffic light to traffic light rather hauling *** down the multi lane freeway.

How long would it take to go from southern suburbs to it's industrial northern suburbs like Port Adelaide for example?

Is it like Melbourne where it can be 2-3 hours going East - West and the opposite way in peak hour or is it only 45 mins or so?

Also what's the opinions on areas like Taperoo? Appears to be cheap for an area that's a couple streets in from the beach?

Many years I use to drive from down south to Edinburgh / Salisbury area every day. The drive one way could take 3/4 of an hour, or it could take double that depending on what time of the day you are doing the trip, and how many car accidents / roadworks you hit on the way.
Heading back home at the end of the day always felt long but I like music so was content to sit in traffic for 2 albums.


As I got older and kids became part of the deal, wasting up to 3 hours in the car had to end. I don't think I could do it again. Unfortunately that rules out many job options.


The plus side is that my experience is from years ago. Has been a long time coming but the South - North commute is getting sorted. Lots happening in the northern end and the southern side is a bloody mess right now so clearly that must also be progress

Once they marry the two up, getting from one side to the other will be much easier..... not game enough to pick a date when thats ready though!




Don't have much knowledge about Taperoo - other than its on the wrong side of Grand Junction rd

[raised by monkeys]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Once they marry the two up, getting from one side to the other will be much easier..... not game enough to pick a date when thats ready though!

Don't know how many characters AFF allows in a response, but im sure its not enough to provide a number of days it will take

[blueoval]

The Darlington spaghetti concrete farce thats still under construction I believe wont be fully complete for another 12 months. Glacial speed is the only way these road works move. It's actually a joke if you ask me. But that's another topic.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Many years I use to drive from down south to Edinburgh / Salisbury area every day. The drive one way could take 3/4 of an hour, or it could take double that depending on what time of the day you are doing the trip, and how many car accidents / roadworks you hit on the way.
Heading back home at the end of the day always felt long but I like music so was content to sit in traffic for 2 albums.


As I got older and kids became part of the deal, wasting up to 3 hours in the car had to end. I don't think I could do it again. Unfortunately that rules out many job options.


The plus side is that my experience is from years ago. Has been a long time coming but the South - North commute is getting sorted. Lots happening in the northern end and the southern side is a bloody mess right now so clearly that must also be progress

Once they marry the two up, getting from one side to the other will be much easier..... not game enough to pick a date when thats ready though!




Don't have much knowledge about Taperoo - other than its on the wrong side of Grand Junction rd

Unfortunately you don't have a freeway system, while people say that Adelaide doesn't 'need' a freeway system, it's much cheaper and easier to build it now rather than try 25 years from now when it has a population of 5M people trying to navigate it's suburbs and spend 10x as much trying to build it

45 minutes isn't bad and either is 1.5 hours but I'll keep that in mind, I'll probably stay North in that case if I move over.

Speaking of Gawler/Evanston/Salisbury/Elizabeth region is probably where I'll look and if I have to cross the city I have to cross the city.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Unfortunately you don't have a freeway system, while people say that Adelaide doesn't 'need' a freeway system, it's much cheaper and easier to build it now rather than try 25 years from now when it has a population of 5M people trying to navigate it's suburbs and spend 10x as much trying to build it

45 minutes isn't bad and either is 1.5 hours but I'll keep that in mind, I'll probably stay North in that case if I move over.

Speaking of Gawler/Evanston/Salisbury/Elizabeth region is probably where I'll look and if I have to cross the city I have to cross the city.

Damo, do yourself a favour and visit the West one day!
Some fantastic areas around Perth, Freo, all the way down thru Bunbury To Margaret River etc!

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Damo, do yourself a favour and visit the West one day!
Some fantastic areas around Perth, Freo, all the way down thru Bunbury To Margaret River etc!

All I remember is the heat, sweating like a pig even with aircon on full sing in Summer....

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by zilo

All I remember is the heat, sweating like a pig even with aircon on full sing in Summer....

I was like that in Cairns.

Worst holiday I've ever had, couldn't wait to go home!! (not places fault just I couldn't adjust - I'm sure would be fine in time)

[MITCHAY]

Well another house has sold for $535k in my complex this week. I think all but one of these have had original fittings for the kitchen and bathrooms, like mine.

If I was going to put it up today I would ask for $550k. Bigger house which is extended off the plan and is open and I'm pretty sure the biggest backyard.

I bought for $430k, put in about $17k for paint, carpet, and custom blinds and curtains.

I believe I had almost zero competition for it based on my experience and I couldn't believe my luck

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I was like that in Cairns.

Worst holiday I've ever had, couldn't wait to go home!! (not places fault just I couldn't adjust - I'm sure would be fine in time)

Costa Rica not for you then!
7 degrees Nth of the equator, never gets below 22c, even on the “chilliest” of nights! Practically all days are low 30s, with some high 30’s (Jan, Feb, March) and we average 175 inches (over 14ft!) of rain annually down here in the jungle.
Always a nice breeze off the ocean in afternoon though (similar to Fremantle Doctor)

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Costa Rica not for you then!
7 degrees Nth of the equator, never gets below 22c, even on the “chilliest” of nights! Practically all days are low 30s, with some high 30’s (Jan, Feb, March) and we average 175 inches (over 14ft!) of rain annually down here in the jungle.
Always a nice breeze off the ocean in afternoon though (similar to Fremantle Doctor)

Sounds like a brilliant spot. Rain is ok it's the wind in Tassie that annoys me.

I guess get used to it and if all sorted house wise whether AC or whatever works is great.

Sounds like you are very happy.

I've read a few of your posts and that's fantastic.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Costa Rica not for you then!
7 degrees Nth of the equator, never gets below 22c, even on the “chilliest” of nights! Practically all days are low 30s, with some high 30’s (Jan, Feb, March) and we average 175 inches (over 14ft!) of rain annually down here in the jungle.
Always a nice breeze off the ocean in afternoon though (similar to Fremantle Doctor)

We probably could but those of us who prefer colder climates would probably just be walking around in our jocks 24/7

I start dying in temperatures over 25 degrees but it was -4 the other morning and I had a t-shirt on

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

We probably could but those of us who prefer colder climates would probably just be walking around in our jocks 24/7

And no one wants to see that.

Humidity is the problem. In sydney it can be over 40 and I'll mow the lawn, brisbane some days once it hits 25 I'm laying under the air conditioner gasping for breath like a gold fish out of it's tank.

As I drive around my area there are sold signs everywhere. I've checked the most recent sold prices on realestate.com.au and the numbers are solid.

Gumtree has 700ish ads for sail boats down from 1500 12 months ago. Some of that was a policy change but they have continued to drop steadily.

I'm continuing to get solid inquiries and am almost afraid to post my next round of things for sale.

The market is insane.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

We probably could but those of us who prefer colder climates would probably just be walking around in our jocks 24/7

I start dying in temperatures over 25 degrees but it was -4 the other morning and I had a t-shirt on

Same. I wear shorts near all year and big island people think I'm crazy!

Cairns genuinely is freaking hot in Feb - a try and keep fit yet a 100m walk down street I was sweating profusely.......ha.

Basically spent the whole time indoors. At least was an experience though!

[Franco Cozzo]

South Australians - Two Wells?

[MITCHAY]

Anyone else getting spammed by real estate agencies recently even after 'unsubscribing' a loooong time ago?

You're unsubscribed until the market goes to **** and now you are reactivated again.

I remember I couldn't reset my PW for my Allhomes account a few years back and got no response from my support request, but yet I'm still on their mailing list

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

South Australians - Two Wells?

paddocks

ride on / sheep / ride on

can rock big sheds

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Anyone else getting spammed by real estate agencies recently even after 'unsubscribing' a loooong time ago?

Yep!

(....thought it was just me )

But am also getting emails out of the blue on quotes for all sorts of stuff from as far back as two years ago....like fibre reinforce plastic sheets that I asked for quotes on in 2018....

Pretty hilarious really....but makes you think something is "brewing"

[zilo]

This is an interesting story on just what is in store for the property experts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_dAMAwne9U