Covid 19 -

[lumen8]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

But... it's not a race... I shouldn't complain, there are people far far worse off than me but I'm getting sick of this treatment.

What will happen some time in 2030 when we decide to open borders and we are at 50% vaccination and daily numbers are in the thousands like other countries??

According to current logic we will be in lockdown... forever.

Well we didnt get to vote for zero covid or whatever one wants to call it (it is basically a zero covid community transmission policy )

It just kind of happened because the authorities wanted it that way?

Most other countries never did that, and it likely wouldnt be tolerated in many places if govco's tried it on. There have already been huge numbers in the streets for example in many places from the US to Europe to the UK... and these are places with more freedoms than oz at the moment in many respects.

So yes the only way for no community transmission to continue is constant lockdowns and closed (for the most part) borders.

And yes they tell us when the jab rate increases lockdowns will end, and they will focus on hospitalisation numbers rather than cases... but other times they say vaccination doesn't mean end of lockdowns or borders open.. Hunt has said that a few times for example... re-iterated it.

I guess those who dont want to keep living in a closed border country where travel is banned (exemption aside) and zero community transmission is the goal have to go somewhere else where these things arent policy... I cant really see another way at the moment for those who arent pleased with the current situation.

We shall see if the overlords change their tune if the jab rate increases.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Hours of operation
Sunday – 9am to 5pm
Monday – 8am to 8pm
Tuesday – 8am to 8pm
Wednesday – 8am to 8pm
Thursday – 8am to 8pm
Friday – 8am to 8pm
Saturday – 8am to 8pm
.

Well that is an improvement. Sundays was off limits not long ago.

Hopefully we get an idea of the vax rates for the "roadmap to freedom" tomorrow. Heard on the news that modelling has been completed, but they are not making it publicly available. Its going to be discussed and agreed at the National Cabinet, and include economic modelling into the final decision. I'm going to guess scientists said 80-90%. But it'll be watered down to ~70%.

[zilo]

Dr Mark Veitch, Director of Public Health
The Director of Public Health has advised that from midnight tonight Victoria will no longer be designated as a high-risk area.

This means that from midnight tonight people in home or hotel quarantine in Tasmania because they were recently in Victoria will be able to leave quarantine as long as they have not been at a high-risk premises in Victoria or another state, or anywhere in New South Wales, in the past 14 days.

4 days into my home quarantine..I love it.....

Ahhh Tasmania...don't come here guys it's freezing cold...trust me...stay in Vic/NSW/SA

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by zilo

Ahhh Tasmania...don't come here guys it's freezing cold...trust me...stay in Vic/NSW/SA

A bit better than Geelong eh?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

They are really going for gold here. Its one thing to get ADF to man borders and hotel quarantine, but its another to get them to walk the streets to enforce lock down? What country do we live in again?

And didn't the feds previously refuse ADF support for Vic to enforce public health orders, because they had "no legal authority". What has changed?

NSW Police request ADF help to crack down on COVID-19 compliance in Sydney
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...help/100334878


Fully understand. There are many people who are filthy mate. I got no beef with the people who are getting support if they are unfortunate enough to need it, but to announce an increase on the day that SA and Vic came out of lock down is pretty slimey. Does the new rate apply retrospectively for SA and Vic residents?

I dont have a problem with them calling on the ADF to help, anything that gets the right message through to stop the ongoing spread is money well spent for mine.

I dont have a problem with those in need getting the financial assistance either, nor do i care about the increase, which wont be applied retrospectively top SA residents im led to believe.
What annoys me is that people will receive this help for much longer than could have been necessary due to Government decisions whilst those of us with ongoing employment lockdown related issues in SA are forgotten about.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

They are really going for gold here. Its one thing to get ADF to man borders and hotel quarantine, but its another to get them to walk the streets to enforce lock down? What country do we live in again?

don't stress it, the ADF can't ENFORCE anything, they are not allowed to raise arms against their own country - you may see the ADF walking around, but you can back it is they won't be carrying guns, that is left to the Police

The ADF will be used like they were here, just to walk with the others to keep 'enforcement' numbers up

However WorkSafe do have emergency powers in Victoria to ENFORCE the rules as they apply to workplaces

[T3rminator]

Google has just released their mobility report across the world. The baseline is set at Jan 2020 I think. Data period is 13th June to 25th July.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The Australian report is here...

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi...port_en-GB.pdf


Just a bit of comparison between the 3 states that went into lock down during this period.

Retail and Recreation
SA = -56%
NSW = -45%
VIC = -50%

Supermarket and pharmacy
SA = -15%
NSW = -15%
VIC = -10%

Parks
SA = -70%
NSW = -25%
VIC = -52%

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I dont have a problem with them calling on the ADF to help, anything that gets the right message through to stop the ongoing spread is money well spent for mine.

I dont have a problem with those in need getting the financial assistance either, nor do i care about the increase, which wont be applied retrospectively top SA residents im led to believe.
What annoys me is that people will receive this help for much longer than could have been necessary due to Government decisions whilst those of us with ongoing employment lockdown related issues in SA are forgotten about.

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

don't stress it, the ADF can't ENFORCE anything, they are not allowed to raise arms against their own country - you may see the ADF walking around, but you can back it is they won't be carrying guns, that is left to the Police

The ADF will be used like they were here, just to walk with the others to keep 'enforcement' numbers up

However WorkSafe do have emergency powers in Victoria to ENFORCE the rules as they apply to workplaces

Helping to monitor is ok. Enforcing would be a different matter. I thought I read that they would be requested to help enforce compliance (and help with logistics), which becomes problematic.

Feds said ADF couldn't help man the hotel floors in VIC because they had no authority to enforce public health orders. I think we had ADF to help visit homes to check if people were staying home when they had to isolate. They would then just report back if someone was not home, no enforcement. Did they walk the streets in Melb? I didn't see any.

[Citroënbender]

The ADF could always misunderstand, sending military bands to help… Or maybe Israel can send some of their soldiers. That will flummox Avi.

First A-Z shot tomorrow, got to admit the media hubbub has given me a little more apprehension than I should have. That said, not backing away - it’s like enlistment; I’m doing it mostly for others.

[Citroënbender]

Not impressed; this is more “hurry up and wait” behaviour from our incumbents:

…recommended the government introduce an $80 million lottery with $10 million in prize money for 10 vaccinated winners each week from November, when supply problems have been fixed

Source
Unless they automatically enter everyone who has already been vaccinated (which is only listed as a further suggestion), why wouldn’t people put it off?

Implicitly, the article also informs Sydney to be likely heavily bound by restrictions until - and beyond - that date, as case numbers are unlikely to drop or other strategies/metrics adopted.

So - once again - the incumbents seem to be gunning for an “It will all be right for Christmas” as a strategy.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

.........
Implicitly, the article also informs Sydney to be likely heavily bound by restrictions until - and beyond - that date, as case numbers are unlikely to drop or other strategies/metrics adopted.

So - once again - the incumbents seem to be gunning for an “It will all be right for Christmas” as a strategy.

There has been a few models done by different universities, all point to sept as being the earliest point that you might get cases down into single digits, and assuming you have 40% vaccinated.

Some less optimistic models are suggesting it could last beyond Christmas.

I hate to say it, but it might need to take a big spike to get some people to take this more seriously. Remember Vic cases topped out at 800 a day.

[DJR-351]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...fees/100333948

The Federal Government has threatened to "throw the book" at a GP clinic that has been charging a $370 consultation fee to administer Pfizer shots in one of Sydney's worst COVID-hit areas............

http://www.bhcang.com.au/

[prydey]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Google has just released their mobility report across the world. The baseline is set at Jan 2020 I think. Data period is 13th June to 25th July.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The Australian report is here...

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi...port_en-GB.pdf


Just a bit of comparison between the 3 states that went into lock down during this period.

Retail and Recreation
SA = -56%
NSW = -45%
VIC = -50%

Supermarket and pharmacy
SA = -15%
NSW = -15%
VIC = -10%

Parks
SA = -70%
NSW = -25%
VIC = -52%

It would appear that the stats back up that nsw hasn't reduced their movements by as much as they probably should to try to get on top of the virus.

Like our Prof Nicola Spurrier said, the virus only moves when people move.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by prydey

It would appear that the stats back up that nsw hasn't reduced their movements by as much as they probably should to try to get on top of the virus.

Like our Prof Nicola Spurrier said, the virus only moves when people move.

Glady/Chant have been saying the same just as Spurrier for ages/weeks and weeks Rob, none of the Prof/Health spokesperson are breaking new ground.
Its the people in those LGA's giving us the grief whereas as the larger % of Sydney is doing the right thing.
Just check out the infection rates in this map.
Yer - can't even trust a Doctor's business by the way profitering on jabs whilst its meant to be bulk billed.
As you can see in the article that clinic will get sorted out, hopefully closed and his Doctors license cancelled.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...fees/100333948

[Charliewool]

“recommended the government introduce an $80 million lottery with $10 million in prize money for 10 vaccinated winners each week from November, when supply problems have been fixed”

And yet a pub got sh itcanned for offering a free beer?

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

“recommended the government introduce an $80 million lottery with $10 million in prize money for 10 vaccinated winners each week from November, when supply problems have been fixed”

And yet a pub got **** canned for offering a free beer?

Exactly my first thought when i first read the article....

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by prydey

It would appear that the stats back up that nsw hasn't reduced their movements by as much as they probably should to try to get on top of the virus.

Like our Prof Nicola Spurrier said, the virus only moves when people move.

I'm surprised no one has yet picked it up or asked..........how did google obtain the data? I don't know about anyone else, but I turn off my location history and only enable GPS permission whilst googlemaps "is in use".

[Polyal]

Those who are firing up the most seem to be “me, me, me”. This is not a good situation but the leaders need to make decisions for the greeter good not select groups. Bad time to use the word pivot?

Obviously those effected most can afford it the least, I suspect that is where the angst is. No leader wants to be in this position having to chose who loses out but that’s life.

Again we need to look after the vulnerable, whether that’s age or financial but you can’t bail people out forever. It’s not govcos fault so many live on the edge

[prydey]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm surprised no one has yet picked it up or asked..........how did google obtain the data? I don't know about anyone else, but I turn off my location history and only enable GPS permission whilst googlemaps "is in use".

If govts want to find someone, they'll find them.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by prydey

If govts want to find someone, they'll find them.

correct, also there are countless people who couldn't be bothered going back into settings, turn off this turn off that, countless of them.
Then are those who think they can out smart it all, oh I turn that tracking off
Your doomed period no matter what you switch off.

Google/wiki as sources of info
Turn it up - or should it be turn it on

Some people.
Ab Lincoln was right way way way back then wink wink

[T3rminator]

No quite there yet fellas. If they could, they wouldn't have had any issues rounding up all those protesters from last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 29th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

252 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.737%. NSW recorded their highest ever daily case numbers with 240, surpassing the 212 cases of March 28th, 2020.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.907%.

The UK had a higher 30,633 cases yesterday and lower 85 deaths for a CMR of 2.232%.

A higher 88,831 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 481 deaths sees CMR at 1.770%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 197M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Yesterday was the 2nd day over 600k cases since May 21st;
It was also the 2nd day over 10k deaths since June 4th;

Mauritania (401);
Eswatini (601);
Kazakhstan (7,479) - the 8th consecutive day;
Japan (9,577) - the previous high on 9/1/21; and
Thailand (17,669)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Pakistan moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Russia, Afghanistan, Zambia and the Netherlands drop below.

A comment about NSW.

During the Victorian outbreak last year, Victoria recorded 19,369 cases over the 82 days between 29th June and 18th September with a single day peak of 725 on the 5th August. That resulted in 112 days of lockdown between 7th July and 28th October but also resulted in 700 of the 820 deaths the State has recorded - most of those in aged care.

At this stage (20 days in), the NSW average case growth rate is better than Victoria (1.113 v 1.15) with 2,412 cases to date but my modelling shows that could result in another 10,000+ cases over the next 6 weeks although the number of deaths is likely to be much lower than the 700 Victoria had. My model; admittedly a little bit of science and a lot of assumptions; is predicting ~50 deaths in the best case and 80 in the worst case with the proviso that we don't see a repeat of the disaster in aged care.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

I found this article interesting:

Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the University of Sydney's Centre for Complex Systems said despite growing vaccination rates, compliance levels were not enough to push case numbers down to under 10 a day by mid-September.

Professor Prokopenko has been modelling the effect of restrictions on case numbers since March last year and uses 10 cases a day as the point in which lockdown could end.

Feeding the latest case numbers into the model, up to July 25, showed that compliance with social distancing measures was around 60 per cent.

"To adequately suppress the outbreak, 70 to 80 per cent of residents in Greater Sydney must comply with social distancing, however we are just not seeing those numbers yet," he said.

The new modelling shows compliance with restrictions has improved from 40 per cent when the model was run two weeks ago.

[tweeked]

So where will the ARL GF be held????

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

I found this article interesting:

Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the University of Sydney's Centre for Complex Systems said despite growing vaccination rates, compliance levels were not enough to push case numbers down to under 10 a day by mid-September.......

They are in no hurry to end lock down. As Mark McGowan once said, they are playing wack a mole. Applying restrictions after the horse bolts. 3 LGAs became 5, 5 became 8......

Some figures from the mobility report on the affected LGAs. The percentage change is in comparision to pre-covid:

Parks:
Bankstown +9%
Cantebury +29%
Fairfield +61%
Campbelltown +5%

They have only just come to realise that masks outdoor actually helps

Funnily, some people at work today in our MELBOURNE offices have reported that they have been receiving robo calls from (02) numbers, asking them to "stay safe and stay home"

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Polyal

It’s not govcos fault so many live on the edge

If that is directed at me you can stop right there.

We dont live 'on the edge' im not asking Govco to bail me out, my point is that due to poor handling of the situation in NSW those same residents that aren't doing the right thing are now reaping reward for their actions, meanwhile, those of us that have repeatedly done the right thing are now not only being overlooked but will be part of the 'payback' that will come as some point in time.

Glady's said yesterday, when confronted with her poor handling of the situation, that no Government around the world has handled it 100% correct as there is no handbook on the subject. This is again a complete load of rubbish as the Victorian example not only highlights what happens with inaction, but that example is right on her bloody doorstep ffs.
No wonder she was close to tears when faced with it, her decision making is killing people and many of those 24 currently on respirators will be added to the figures and that will sadly grow as Russ suggests.

My Wife is currently on Work cover for what started off as a tear in her left elbow, she has continued doing 38hrs per week on 'light' duties and has now developed a tear in her right elbow due to extra load in compensating.
She is in constant pain yet she still does her 76hr fortnight with both arms stuffed.
As part of her roster she would work a weekend every fortnight and that was worth 25% of her total income, due to being on work cover she no longer gets her weekend as they wont pay penalty rates so we have been down around $300 per fortnight for 2 months now while they flip flop over how best to fix the problem, apparently a 14mm tear can be fixed with physio so thats where she's been at for weeks now despite the physio and orthopedic surgeon saying she needs an operation.
I've now lost about $1600 per fortnight due to our industry being smashed, not too many people can afford to be $1900 dollars worse off in a fortnight and not be affected.

That doesnt mean were living on the edge, not many people could handle that kind of income loss without noticing it, bills still roll in, reserves only stretch so far and you can never recoup lost earnings.

People want real life experiences, go ya ****ing hardest.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

her decision making is killing people and many of those 24 currently on respirators will be added to the figures and that will sadly grow as Russ suggests.

Unfortunately, it seems as though there may be more deaths than just those who are curerently in hospital, if this report is right:

CHO Kerry Chant says families are bringing severely unwell, even dead, loved ones to hospital

Dr Chant urges people to get tested and seek care if they are feeling unwell:

"I'm just struck by the tragedy of it, that we've had a number of people that are presented to hospital severely unwell and sometimes dead. I just think that people need to know that with COVID, you can deteriorate quite quickly.

From the blog here.

Tragic indeed.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

No quite there yet fellas. If they could, they wouldn't have had any issues rounding up all those protesters from last week.

That's probably more a matter of how they use the resources. Bit of a waste to dedicate too much to that kind of exercise. Most would just get a slap on the wrist.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

No quite there yet fellas. If they could, they wouldn't have had any issues rounding up all those protesters from last week.

Just heard that the clowns who organised that one are planning another one for this weekend in Newtown (inner city suburb)

[Citroënbender]

Should I “dob in” the sharks who wanted to lowball my house, as top level protest organisers?