Australia housing bubble

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Yep this part, we tend to give him a fair bit of leeway. Even Franco behaves himself in those threads

I admit I was less than nice in the beginning but figured it out quick enough.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I usually look at those posts and thinking WTF? Either the best troll ever or just a bloke who has a few difficulties in life and doing their best in it. I think the later is true.

Got a touch of the ‘tism i think.

[MITCHAY]

Anyways to get it back on track, another unit settled in my complex for $535k. Solid $100k gain for me objectively.

Apparently property is still going up here which doesn't really surprise me since there is a lot of WFH for professionals both public and private.

Then a lot of construction going on which keeps the tradies busy. So many apartment complexes starting up or finishing up in the CBD.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Anyways to get it back on track, another unit settled in my complex for $535k. Solid $100k gain for me objectively.

Apparently property is still going up here which doesn't really surprise me since there is a lot of WFH for professionals both public and private.

Then a lot of construction going on which keeps the tradies busy. So many apartment complexes starting up or finishing up in the CBD.

That's a good Capital gain. Nice.

Mine was similar but near a decade but smaller values obviously.

I think the market hasn't had time to really be impacted. Hence why I sold.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Oh really.

So the joke was about me? No friends, women etc.

Ok cool then didn't realise. But fair enough and I'm sorry, no worries

No nothing to do with you...PM incoming

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

That's a good Capital gain. Nice.

Mine was similar but near a decade but smaller values obviously.

I think the market hasn't had time to really be impacted. Hence why I sold.

Less than 3 years too. I put in less than $20k in mods, so net $80k gain at worst.

But all these units have been flogged with original fixtures in kitchen and bathrooms except one.

So I'm looking really good with extended living room and an actual yard

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Less than 3 years too. I put in less than $20k in mods, so net $80k gain at worst.

But all these units have been flogged with original fixtures in kitchen and bathrooms except one.

So I'm looking really good with extended living room and an actual yard

Nice work. Mine 232 to 315 in 8 years. Minimal work as it was already fine (lights, but I painted etc etc so prob 5K as no labour)

It's amazing the values you guys and girls have. With my dogs I couldn't even live in most Strata developments.....hence my Land to buy (and keep still) and just live on it temporarily.........Vans at 30K have nicer kitchens than my old house!! (not sure on Council approval etc rules)

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Nice work. Mine 232 to 315 in 8 years. Minimal work as it was already fine (lights, but I painted etc etc so prob 5K as no labour)

Bought 2014@900k offered 2017@4.2M (not far from you)

turned the offer down....chinese investors were buying up everything.

No regrets.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by zilo

Bought 2014@900k offered 2017@4.2M (not far from you)

turned the offer down....chinese investors were buying up everything.

No regrets.

900k to 4.2m in 3yrs?

Where do you live? WTF? Holy **** that would be an epic return!

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?
For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by leesa

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

We're screwing our kids out of their futures. You'd have to be blind not to see it.

[MITCHAY]

I'm not selling as it's my home so it's not at the expense of someone else IMO. I've already said I don't believe in investing in property.

It's not my fault it's worth a lot more than I paid for it if I wanted to flip it however.

[blueoval]

The value of a house is worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it.

Supply and demand will set the values, plus it all depends on your own expectations.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by leesa

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?
For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

At the end of the day it sucks but it means that people are going to have to look outside of Melbourne and Sydney if they want to be able to afford housing without having to partner up or chase ever increasing spondoolies.

Hence why I've been asking advice about Adelaide, sure if like to stay on the regional outskirts of Melbourne but why pay $450-500K when it'll buy you within the metropolitan area of another capital city?

Instead of being 70KM out of where you work you could be 20KM out of work with a half hour commute?

Either people make sacrifices like this or the expectations lower to a single bedroom apartment, you're lucky to get a car spot and a single bedroom with $500K with an apartment in the nicer areas of inner Melbourne suburbia.

It's even worse in Sydney, double it.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by leesa

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?

Yeah...limiting millennials' smashed avocado keeps me awake at night...
When I sell a house I also buy at an inflated price so my guilt gets transferred to the other guy...win,win

Originally Posted by leesa

For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Debt that they shouldn't take on, them paying inflated prices make the buyers actually being the problem..

not the sellers, have you thought of that?

Originally Posted by leesa

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

How is a buyers' stupidity the fault of the seller?
there is no problem...you sell high you replace with a high when you re-buy.

Originally Posted by leesa

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

It's just capitalism, China will welcome you if you prefer their system?

Leesa, if your boss offered you a pay rise would you refuse , saying that pay rises cause inflation?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by leesa

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?
For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

It will be handed down to my kids when i die, so they gain from it too. And no it doesn’t bother me. I work hard to pay off my house. Bloody hell it’s not my job to help others buy a house. It’s up to them.

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It will be handed down to my kids when i die, so they gain from it too.

That's a nice notion but it probably won't happen like that. Your house will more likely be sold to pay for your stay in a nursing home when you're no longer able to take care of yourself at home.
Unless you die suddenly or maintain your faculties long enough that you won't need someone to care for you, your power of attorney will probably sell your house to pay for your care until your end of life, which usually costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by leesa

That's a nice notion but it probably won't happen like that. Your house will more likely be sold to pay for your stay in a nursing home when you're no longer able to take care of yourself at home.
Unless you die suddenly or maintain your faculties long enough that you won't need someone to care for you, your power of attorney will probably sell your house to pay for your care until your end of life, which usually costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.

i would much prefer a succulent meal of homeless brand cat food on cheap breaded toast than any old aged care

Originally Posted by blueoval

Supply and demand will set the values, plus it all depends on your own expectations.

Sure, but when the market is fiddled with so as to limit supply than it otherwise would be, do you still think it's fair to explain it away as supply and demand?

Overseas investors have bought up property in Australia for no other reason than to park their money here as so far it's been a stable market. Those properties don't get rented out, lived in, nothing, just sat there locked up empty, doing nothing but reducing the supply and keeping the value of surrounding properties inflated.

If we're going to fall back on 'supply and demand' then surely it should be a closed system? No overseas investment, australian jobs and australian money have to pay for australian housing. Then the "supply and demand" would naturally find an equilibrium as you describe but instead we have other countries finding their way into the mix.

Can you honestly sit back and still stand by "supply and demand" when the market is fiddled with like that?

Originally Posted by pottery beige

i would much prefer a succulent meal of homeless brand cat food on cheap breaded toast than any old aged care

Many people would but the decision will probably be out of your hands, especially if you end up with dementia.

Who's going to take care of you and feed you the cat food? Many dementia patients get violent, I can almost guarantee you that your children and/or spouse won't be up to the task of looking after you for long once you've forgotten who they are and start attacking the stranger in your own home who's trying to feed you.
It's worth having that discussion now with your family.

I'd be interested to see the statistics on how many well-wishing home owners' properties actually end up passed down to their children versus how many get sold to pay for their care.

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by leesa

Many people would but the decision will probably be out of your hands, especially if you end up with dementia.

Who's going to take care of you and feed you the cat food? Many dementia patients get violent, I can almost guarantee you that your children and/or spouse won't be up to the task of looking after you for long once you've forgotten who they are and start attacking the stranger in your own home who's trying to feed you.
It's worth having that discussion now with your family.

I'd be interested to see the statistics on how many well-wishing home owners' properties actually end up passed down to their children versus how many get sold to pay for their care.

a crazy cat lady will feed me cat food .?

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

a crazy cat lady will feed me cat food .?

Bugger you. Who is going to look after Winnie ?

Originally Posted by pottery beige

a crazy cat lady will feed me cat food .?

Crazy cat lady will end up in big legal trouble for treating someone like that.

My mum is an aged care nurse and residents having their homes sold to fund their care is pretty common.

It makes me a little bit sad when people say their house will be left to their kids, it's a romantic thought but may well not happen that way.

It also makes me scoff when people use that as a justification of why they bought more than they realistically needed.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

a crazy cat lady will feed me to her cat .?

Fixed It for You...

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

i would much prefer a succulent meal of homeless brand cat food on cheap breaded toast than any old aged care

We're both going to be worm food decades before we have the chance to go to old fogies prison, I've already got one foot in the grave

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by leesa

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?
For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

It is an interesting question, but it takes in more than the housing market.

Lets see if I can make this concise.

1. The market economy works for almost everyone in Australia far more than it harms them. Nothing is perfect but the markets superiority over alternatives is clearly demonstrable. I could probably write you a book demonstrating why that is, but I won't.

2.The east coast capital city markets have been dysfunctional since the end of WW2. You can make the argument that it really began before (late 20's) or after (70's) that time but that's a fair average to use.

All this whinging has been going on since I was young and trying to get into the market. I literally gave up a dream job to move to Brisbane specifically and singly because of the price of sydney housing in 1996. I was single and getting the national average wage in a safe government job that I loved, but I would have been choking to get a place on the central coast. My job was at Lindfield, which is in the middle of the expensive north shore. In hindsight I MIGHT have been able to squeeze into a derelict house at Berowra, but I didn't know at the time it was so cheap. Hornsby, Ryde etc were all miles out of reach.

3. Saying housing is unaffordable in Australia is absurd. We are among the least densely populated countries on earth and there is land/property everywhere you can buy for pittance. What there is is a lack of affordable housing in Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne. This is a dysfunction in our society. A lot of people live in the ECCs because of work. The government can't control private industry but they can control public service and associated locations. If state and federal governments moved everything out of the cities apart from geographically necessary workers that would relieve pressure tremendously. They should also move all public housing out, and ideally west of the divide/reigonal vic.

4. Immigration is the other big problem. There are only 3 valid reasons for immigration. Tactical skills shortages (should only ever extend as far as it takes to train locals to do the jobs), family reunion and humanitarian. Unfortunately the feds have found 2 more good reasons, payback for their developer and retail donors and a smoke and mirrors ponzy scheme to create the illusion our economy isn't totally stuffed. Immigration is a drug and the government has been an eyeball injecting addict for decades. Did you know we have the highest per capita rate of immigration in the developed world ?

5 The prewar generation really got this problem rolling and the baby boomers carried it on. Laws changed in the 70's allowing married women to continue to work. A lot of women went back to work to "get ahead" and by teh end of teh 70's the cost of living, housing and everything had reset to a 2 income family. People no longer had a choice. Then in the 80's as their equity increased and the government stole the retirement fund PWG and BB refinanced and bought investment properties. RE in sydney literally quadrupled in the late 80's in the space of a couple of years. It was insane and locked my whole generation out of the market. The only way you could get in was to live with your parents and save as much of both wages as you could for a deposit. When the market crashed in 1990 I saw so many of my friends lose their homes and life savings. It was devastating and heartbreaking.

So I guess my long winded "explanation" (rant) is saying that while investors are part of the problem they are by far and away not the only driver. If the proposition is to prevent or shame people into not investing in property I would suggest there are other levers we might pull as a society before we get there.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by leesa

That's a nice notion but it probably won't happen like that. Your house will more likely be sold to pay for your stay in a nursing home when you're no longer able to take care of yourself at home.
Unless you die suddenly or maintain your faculties long enough that you won't need someone to care for you, your power of attorney will probably sell your house to pay for your care until your end of life, which usually costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Geez Leese I don't know how you manage to maintain such a happy go lucky carefree attitude with all that's happening in the world today.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by leesa

Sure, but when the market is fiddled with so as to limit supply than it otherwise would be, do you still think it's fair to explain it away as supply and demand?

Overseas investors have bought up property in Australia for no other reason than to park their money here as so far it's been a stable market. Those properties don't get rented out, lived in, nothing, just sat there locked up empty, doing nothing but reducing the supply and keeping the value of surrounding properties inflated.

If we're going to fall back on 'supply and demand' then surely it should be a closed system? No overseas investment, australian jobs and australian money have to pay for australian housing. Then the "supply and demand" would naturally find an equilibrium as you describe but instead we have other countries finding their way into the mix.

Can you honestly sit back and still stand by "supply and demand" when the market is fiddled with like that?

Absolutely I can sit back and watch it. Because other than moral sentiment, that is the way it's always been. Do I like it? Is it fair? Well that is a can of worms perhaps for another thread. It's business at the end of the day. Not a hand out.

But supply and demand has always been the catalyst for price marketing. Take away that supply (i.e. international investment) and you will see prices adjust accordingly.

I feel sorry for those who cannot break into the market, I really do. But unless something happens to the 'demand' part of the equation, then you will see prices remain where they are. For the record, I dislike international manipulation of our housing market. It's created a false sense of inflation and yes, it has pushed out the average mum and dad out from getting their first home.

It's still, Not impossible though to get it, but serious sacrifices need to be made to achieve that Australian dream of owning your own home. Lot's I'm afraid are either locked into a lifestyle difficult to get out of, OR are not prepared to make the sacrifices needed for whatever reason and prefer to whinge at the those who have done what its taken to achieve their goals. There is no point sugar coating the reality.

With Covid, we are seeing things move now. Foreign investment is being introduced back in starting with Hong Kong based on what the PM recently said, so who knows how things will turn out. I really do not like how much we are reliant on international business to 'keep Australia afloat' though, but there is very little other option since we have deregulated everything. We are kind of at the mercy of what other countries do now.

[guzzis3]

I don't know, I think she asks some pertinent questions.

BTW I agree OS investors have further distorted teh market. They are a fairly recent factor though and I personally believe they won't remain. The government won't ban them though because of teh aforementioned ponzy scheme and indebtedness to donors.

If immigration is stunted for years rather than months that will play out, but the big change will happen as the BBs die off.

Just one thing worth mentioning. It's easy to look at headlines about prices but the real driver of housing prices is % income to service the mortgage. This is actually much lower now than in the 90's because of our ridiculously low interest rates, so actual housing stress for new home buyers is LOWER now than when I was looking 25 years ago.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by leesa

This is probably going to be controversial but doesn't it bother you guys that the 'returns' you're seeing are coming at the expense of someone else and heavily impacting their life?
For you to gain $100k you're costing someone else considerable debt, debt that they may well not pay off before they die.

Your profit is coming at the expense of further inflating the market beyond the reach of many Australians who will never obtain security in one of the basic necessities of life, shelter.

Those people are your friends.. your family.. your kids... your friend's kids... their friends.

Does anyone have any feelings about that or all good?

Shelter can also be rented Leesa. No one forces you to buy. Right now the rental market is at rock bottom - thousands of vacant places, 2 weeks free rent, drops of 10-15% on last year.

If you are renting you are in a far better position than the owners right now. Have you considered moving to a smaller place, or moving and getting a decent discount and banking the difference?

Leesa, it's an open playing field. Properties are bought and sold in an open market. You can enter at any time, at a level that suits your circumstances.

No point being upset at others that entered and made a profit. That could have been you if you wanted.

Investors have lost as well when there is a downturn. That's just the game.

Leesa, if I recall, you are renting and therefore 'unable' to buy? My advice, put aside a little every week (you would be surprised how much you 'waste' a year on stuff you don't really need) and then buy something (anything) where the repayments are around the same as your rent.

I think there are some new deposit schemes coming our way? Use them!

Think of ways you can make extra money. Get a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or even 5th job. Remember, you sitting at home winging that you can't get into the market gets you nowhere.