Covid 19 -

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Out of interest, if we open up everything like you say we should, is there a number of dead people that you think becomes unacceptable in Australia in a year? Even if you think that no one will die, just if you turn out to be wrong, what is that acceptable number?

That's a damn good question, but, there is no answer really, you will get mumbo jumbo answers but they will just dance around the facts, good question

Cheers Billy

[Citroënbender]

I would nominate the 1970 national road toll, indexed for population increase, as being an upper limit of deaths from a single cause, which could be socially absorbed.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by zipping

We are 18 months in, the question isn't how many will die, the question is how long can we keep doing this and hold back the flood of infections that are inevitable?

The common cold is a coronavirus, we all get those.

For how many years should we lock Australia up?

We have had 38k of infections only at this stage. Israel as fully vaxed as they are likely to get just had 6k infections a day with 10mil population but a low 16 deaths

Not all countries are the same but using Israel if Vax works to some degree, given they have 6.5k deaths, and we are 2.5x bigger, probably in the region of 10-12k deaths from/with the virus.

Agree as it only a matter of time we will be facing this issue; to be quite honest I think the "Genie is out of the bottle" so to speak of with this Delta variant of the virus, look at NSW being out of control and with Victoria struggling to stop it spreading.
This virus will spread and we will have to live with the consquences.
Hope I'm wrong but time will tell.

[zilo]

Just got informed by my eldest (who is a surgeon operating in Sydney),
that they are now using a Covid tester that does not involve a swab, just a saliva test.

It takes 15 minutes for the result....and is very accurate.

That is a game changer I reckon.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I would nominate the 1970 national road toll, indexed for population increase, as being an upper limit of deaths from a single cause, which could be socially absorbed.

Remembering back then a Victorian newspaper had the tagline "Declare war on 1034".

1034 being the road toll for 1969 or 1970.

[Citroënbender]

Must have been the state road toll, as national road toll from the late ‘60s to the late ‘70s was 3000+. Everyone knew of someone who’d died or been significantly injured in a car accident; that was the perspective I strived to endow.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Remembering back then a Victorian newspaper had the tagline "Declare war on 1034".

1034 being the road toll for 1969 or 1970.

That also triggered mandatory seat belts....
Victoria the first state in the world to do so.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I would nominate the 1970 national road toll, indexed for population increase, as being an upper limit of deaths from a single cause, which could be socially absorbed.

That would mean we are shutting down for the for something outside of the top 20 causes of death.....

This will be one of the harshest decisions of the century.

For me the only answer is everyone who wants a vaccine gets one, when we reach that point the resulting number will be whatever it is.

I was more asking what those who want to open up right now and run the gauntlet, what their number was. They are quick to say others a sheep and watch this you tube video blah blah blah, but pretty thin on saying what they believe will be the result of their wishes/beliefs. Be it nothing happens and it was a sham, right through to survival of the fittest.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zipping

We are 18 months in, the question isn't how many will die, the question is how long can we keep doing this and hold back the flood of infections that are inevitable?

The common cold is a coronavirus, we all get those.

For how many years should we lock Australia up?

We have had 38k of infections only at this stage. Israel as fully vaxed as they are likely to get just had 6k infections a day with 10mil population but a low 16 deaths

Not all countries are the same but using Israel if Vax works to some degree, given they have 6.5k deaths, and we are 2.5x bigger, probably in the region of 10-12k deaths from/with the virus.

Firstly, the common cold is not a Cornavirus, it's a rhinovirus despite having similarities in some symptoms.

It's a bit early to make a call on Israel yet as the current (derestricted) wave is only in the early stages having started in mid July and it is still growing.

What can be determined is that the last 2 weeks of July saw average case numbers at ~1,700 per day and those are what translate to the deaths per day we are currently seeing.

It's a bit rough but the last 12 days of July had 21k cases and the first 12 days of August has 176 deaths which is a CMR of 0.838% or about twice what we are seeing in other high vax rate countries but also higher than the CMR for Israel across the whole pandemic to date.

The current 12 day period in August has upped the daily case rate significantly with an average of 4,121 cases per day but we'll need to wait for the next two weeks to pas before we get a picture of what that mortality rate is like.

What can be extrapolated from the data is this:

- If the CMR remains at 0.838% then the 49,549 cases over the last 12 days will result in another 415 deaths; and
- There is no sign (yet) of those case numbers reducing although they presumably will at some point.

Even if the case numbers halve or the CMR halves to about the UK/Florida level that is still going to amount to something like 6,000 deaths per annum which is 100 deaths per 100k of adult population.

In Australian terms, where our adult population is 3x the 6M of Israel, that would means something like 18k deaths per annum and I guarantee we wouldn't wear that.

[russellw]

The National road toll in 1970 was 3,798 or 30.4 per 100k of our much smaller population. With our current population that would equate to 7,775 deaths or about 8x the current rate which is 3.6/100k.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by russellw

The National road toll in 1970 was 3,798 or 30.4 per 100k of our much smaller population. With our current population that would equate to 7,775 deaths or about 8x the current rate which is 3.6/100k.

I think the 1034 figure was the Victorian road toll

[T3rminator]

Surely I can't be the only one on this thread who knows of relatively healthy people dying of covid?


2 weeks ago mum got a message from her old high school friend that she had caught covid. In her 60s, no pre-existing conditions. No hospital beds available where she is at. Gone in a week. The husband tested positive a week ago. Knocked him out but was recovering. 3 days ago he sent photos around the class whatsapp group showing that he was recovering well and in good spirits. Last night, got a message from the son saying his dad lost the fight. Sudden deterioration is not unheard of with Delta. Not sure on their vaccination status.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Sudden deterioration is not unheard of with Delta.

I noted this in the NSW presser today:

A woman in her 40s in south-western Sydney died at home. She tested positive on August 7 and was not vaccinated.

Add that to the previously reported case of the person being deceased on presentation to the ED, and it appears to validates what you're saying and experiencing, T3, that deterioration can occur quickly with the delta variant.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

In Australian terms, where our adult population is 3x the 6M of Israel, that would means something like 18k deaths per annum and I guarantee we wouldn't wear that.

I think we will, on a proviso.

if the median age of those who die is over 70. I haven't bought in too much to the die of/die with debate, but if it is predominantly taking people who were in their last 5 years who had serious complications then we would have to be pragmatic. The vaccine may protect 95%, but I am not sure what it will do for someone who is already on the knife edge.

On the other hand, if it is averaging in the 40's I would agree with you.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

Firstly, the common cold is not a Cornavirus, it's a rhinovirus despite having similarities in some symptoms.

It's a bit early to make a call on Israel yet as the current (derestricted) wave is only in the early stages having started in mid July and it is still growing.

What can be determined is that the last 2 weeks of July saw average case numbers at ~1,700 per day and those are what translate to the deaths per day we are currently seeing.

It's a bit rough but the last 12 days of July had 21k cases and the first 12 days of August has 176 deaths which is a CMR of 0.838% or about twice what we are seeing in other high vax rate countries but also higher than the CMR for Israel across the whole pandemic to date.

The current 12 day period in August has upped the daily case rate significantly with an average of 4,121 cases per day but we'll need to wait for the next two weeks to pas before we get a picture of what that mortality rate is like.

What can be extrapolated from the data is this:

- If the CMR remains at 0.838% then the 49,549 cases over the last 12 days will result in another 415 deaths; and
- There is no sign (yet) of those case numbers reducing although they presumably will at some point.

Even if the case numbers halve or the CMR halves to about the UK/Florida level that is still going to amount to something like 6,000 deaths per annum which is 100 deaths per 100k of adult population.

In Australian terms, where our adult population is 3x the 6M of Israel, that would means something like 18k deaths per annum and I guarantee we wouldn't wear that.

Population of Israel is 9m (unless google is wrong) think you have the Jewish population which is approx 75%. I agree we have to wait to see on Israel.

Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the common cold, with rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, adenoviruses and enteroviruses being the most common. Yes the rhinovirus is the most common so what their traits are similar.

DO you think long term we can keep the virus out?
How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy?
Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus?

[tweeked]

Lung Cancer is an example of what we call an acceptable compromise. Ave age of those who die is 74, nearly 9000 a year, 25 a day. And yet cigarettes are legal, you can smoke in the street. Admittedly it is hard to catch from someone else except for passive smoking. If we lost 25 ave age 30 year olds each year I think laws would change faster than what they have.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Here's the NSW's Premier's view of when we live with COVID. No details on death rates though.

NSW: 'Living with COVID' will only happen once 80 per cent of the community is double dosed
Premier Gladys Berejiklian addressed speculations about reopening in September:

"I want to make very clear that what we want to achieve in September and October is provide some opportunities for people to have an extra thing they can do, which they currently can't do today. I don't want to give the impression that it will be freedom all round," Ms Berejiklian said.

"It will not be freedom all round until it is 70 per cent double doses, at least, and 80 per cent is when we learn to live with COVID.

"Having said that, I think all of us have got to come to terms with what living with COVID means. Once you get 80 per cent double doses it essentially means whoever isn't vaccinated, and whoever chooses not to be vaccinated by that point, because by that point everybody will have had the opportunity to be offered the vaccine, living with COVID is very different to what we're doing now.

"At the moment we are trying to get the numbers down as much as we can, trying to make sure that the case numbers don't accelerate exponentially. It is very, very concerning when you see the case numbers are going up. I want to make very clear that the Doherty report says you have to get to 70 per cent double doses before you can really start living freely, and then 80 per cent double dose before you can actually live with COVID. We support that."

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 12th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

376 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.508%.

9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.893%.

The UK had a higher 32,706 cases yesterday and lower 94 deaths for a CMR of 2.115%.

A higher 149,344 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 616 deaths sees CMR at 1.715%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 206M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Asia passes 65M cases;

French Polynesia (1,443) on 9/11;
Japan (15,792);
Malaysia (21,668);
Mexico (22,711) - the previous high on 12/1/21; and
Thailand (22,782)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

El Salvador moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Kyrgyzstan drops below.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zipping

Population of Israel is 9m (unless google is wrong) think you have the Jewish population which is approx 75%. I agree we have to wait to see on Israel.

DO you think long term we can keep the virus out?
How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy?
Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus?

If you read what I wrote, I referred to the adult population of Israel which is a tad under 6M and also the adult population of Australia which is 18M.

In response to your questions:

DO you think long term we can keep the virus out?
In the long term, I frankly don't know. In the mid-term, I don't think we can keep it out and there is certainly a point at which we are going to have to accept some rate of mortalities in the way we do with Influenza now.

How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy?
Frankly, I think we will continue to have to lockdown until we reach the 80% mark if only to keep case numbers manageable because unvaccinated people are going to start filling hospital beds at a rate we aren't equipped to handle otherwise. Even at 80%, there is going to be a period where things will look really bad with high case volumes and mortality numbers much as we are seeing in the UK but we might just have to bite the bullet and accept that although I'd be surprised if any Federal Government would do so this side of the next election.

Or maybe we just take the hard road and say 'if they aren't vaxxed it's their own silly fault and if something like 0.5% of those 3.6M adults (18,000) end up dead then tough'.

Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus?
Realistically I can't. I agree there is one but under the rules applicable to MMT (Modern Money Theory) that may be a really big number.

[shedcoupe]

Apart from the 'acceptable number of deaths' angle, another issue is the 'how many other medical interventions that are delayed due to IC wards being full' number.

And that's assuming that an even more infectious and deadly variant doesn't evolve.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

If you read what I wrote, I referred to the adult population of Israel which is a tad under 6M and also the adult population of Australia which is 18M.

In response to your questions:

DO you think long term we can keep the virus out?
In the long term, I frankly don't know. In the mid-term, I don't think we can keep it out and there is certainly a point at which we are going to have to accept some rate of mortalities in the way we do with Influenza now.

How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy?
Frankly, I think we will continue to have to lockdown until we reach the 80% mark if only to keep case numbers manageable because unvaccinated people are going to start filling hospital beds at a rate we aren't equipped to handle otherwise. Even at 80%, there is going to be a period where things will look really bad with high case volumes and mortality numbers much as we are seeing in the UK but we might just have to bite the bullet and accept that although I'd be surprised if any Federal Government would do so this side of the next election.

Or maybe we just take the hard road and say 'if they aren't vaxxed it's their own silly fault and if something like 0.5% of those 3.6M adults (18,000) end up dead then tough'.

Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus?
Realistically I can't. I agree there is one but under the rules applicable to MMT (Modern Money Theory) that may be a really big number.

Time of year for opening up is interesting too.

I can see Morrison wanting to open up start of December. Start of summer. We go really well, small outbreaks that peter out. He goes for a March election on the back of "we beat the virus and only lost 1000 people, best real country in the world" (sorry NZ!).

He wins

Winter hits, 500 cases a day start of May becomes 10000 cases a day by the end of it. Morrison says "get vaccinated" or take your own risk.

Call me a cynic!

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Remembering back then a Victorian newspaper had the tagline "Declare war on 1034".

1034 being the road toll for 1969 or 1970.

That was just the Victorian road toll too. DECA's post office box number was 1034

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

If you read what I wrote, I referred to the adult population of Israel which is a tad under 6M and also the adult population of Australia which is 18M.

Fair enough, in my own mind I was using total, so the Israel situation is worse than I was thinking.

The Federal government really has no control over lockdowns or other suppressing tactics, although they will get the blame.

Judging by the Vic gov actions another 18 months and 200 dyas of lockdown seems possible.

[slowsnake]

Pharmaceutical companies will not let this virus die!...they will continue on with research, they will milk every possible red cent from the monetary system and will never stop!...not until the bottom line turns red.

And the market will then be hit with every possible product that " slows or helps you " stay well for the rest of your life, its never ending, the pursuit of wealth never ends, the only way around the inflation that's going to hit is to be very wealthy, poor folk get it continually from all sides, always have and always will, that's life, it's a given like death and taxes!


Cheers Billy

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Surely I can't be the only one on this thread who knows of relatively healthy people dying of covid?


2 weeks ago mum got a message from her old high school friend that she had caught covid. In her 60s, no pre-existing conditions. No hospital beds available where she is at. Gone in a week. The husband tested positive a week ago. Knocked him out but was recovering. 3 days ago he sent photos around the class whatsapp group showing that he was recovering well and in good spirits. Last night, got a message from the son saying his dad lost the fight. Sudden deterioration is not unheard of with Delta. Not sure on their vaccination status.

Nope, not 1.
I see by your posts you have a wide network here and abroad.
I'm sure your not alone, I have as well but have no need to quote as such but seeing your asking - no, none that are average health.
Even haven't heard of aged ones.
Wife's family she 1 of 8 from Portugal.
Countless relos there/madeira europe/usa.
Myself Italian background, relos mostly in the north of Italy that unbelieveably fine and round EU.

I had my first info re a death just the other day here locally.
A good friend of my eldest son cousin of his wife to be.
Mind you he did have a heart prod/issue that I have no facts about and only mid 30's.
Went real quick.
Mind you I was told months ago they checked with their GP/Specialists is he ok to have the jab, they said and was told, they sat on the fence due to the typical what ifs and innuedo's so there you go.
Somehow somehere he got it, was told they had been very careful due to his heart prob.
https://www.northernbeachesadvocate....s-covid-death/
Poor Mum called an ambo, obviously couldn't ride with them, followed in the car with her other son.
Upon arriving they got checked out and told can't go in, Mum and brother both positive as well.
Can imagine the poor Mum, couldn't be with her suffering son, he died within 2days :(
Devasting, but again he did have a heart issue, didn't get jabbed.
Would the jab have saved him ? who knows but pardon the pun, worth a shot no.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Pharmaceutical companies will not let this virus die!...they will continue on with research, they will milk every possible red cent from the monetary system and will never stop!...not until the bottom line turns red.

And the market will then be hit with every possible product that " slows or helps you " stay well for the rest of your life, its never ending, the pursuit of wealth never ends, the only way around the inflation that's going to hit is to be very wealthy, poor folk get it continually from all sides, always have and always will, that's life, it's a given like death and taxes!


Cheers Billy

Billy you talking nonsense, smallpox has been ereadicated which plagued mandkind for thousands of years; don't believe the b.s pharmeaceutical companies will hinder cures.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

New system: Four tiers to guide businesses on mandatory vaccinations

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...jobid=29325421

Great, so business is waiting for indemnities before it forces its employee's to take something that could possibly kill them.

I drive heavy vehicles for a crust, this is the equivalent of saying you must drive the bus to transport passengers, but if you have an accident you're not covered by work cover because driving has its risks.

If i need to have a Covid Jab to do my job, i should be covered if that job requirement kills or maims me.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by tweeked

They Claim 95 and 98 percent efficacy, not 100%. So if 100 people in their 90's what normally happens, few walk out again. You will still lose some people in their 90's that are vaccinated.

Originally Posted by tweeked

I think we will, on a proviso.

if the median age of those who die is over 70. I haven't bought in too much to the die of/die with debate, but if it is predominantly taking people who were in their last 5 years who had serious complications then we would have to be pragmatic. The vaccine may protect 95%, but I am not sure what it will do for someone who is already on the knife edge.

On the other hand, if it is averaging in the 40's I would agree with you.

Some of the vax's are as low as 65% efficacy, like the AZ. And it looks like they are all less effective against the delta variant, so probably even lower again. The vaccine's are not the complete cure like a lot of people are assuming they will be. Especially the more virus keeps mutating, the less effective they become.

This problem isn't going away anytime soon. I think we all need to come to the realization that most of the population is going to end up catching covid at some point. And a hell of a lot of people are going to die. We can't keep locking down forever, and it's going to spread like wildfire when we eventually open up.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Some of the vax's are as low as 65% efficacy, like the AZ. And it looks like they are all less effective against the delta variant, so probably even lower again. The vaccine's are not the complete cure like a lot of people are assuming they will be. Especially the more virus keeps mutating, the less effective they become.

This problem isn't going away anytime soon. I think we all need to come to the realization that most of the population is going to end up catching covid at some point. And a hell of a lot of people are going to die. We can't keep locking down forever, and it's going to spread like wildfire when we eventually open up.

Those numbers (65%) are for not catching the virus. They are still claiming in the 90's for preventing serious disease (catching the virus and developing disease are different)

On a side note, I think that those old numbers for not catching the virus are copping a pummelling from Delta, though haven't seen any numbers yet, too soon still. It will be interesting to see if the protection remains to stop the disease.

AZ 92% effective against symptomatic disease from delta according to this study

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...ined/100334138

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Some of the vax's are as low as 65% efficacy, like the AZ. And it looks like they are all less effective against the delta variant, so probably even lower again. The vaccine's are not the complete cure like a lot of people are assuming they will be.

Yeah, everyone seems to think this is the Silver Bullet, then next year it will be time to push the booster shot, then its a secondary booster shot and so on every year after.