Covid 19 -

[naddis01]

The ABC are reporting a confirmed case here in Broken Hill today. They have been infectious in the community in Broken Hill and Wilcannia. So no doubt there will be more to come in the next few days for western NSW.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by zipping

So you endorse Vicpol view that playgrounds must be policed to ensure children are not playing.

It's the law. Although no legislation was passed except for sweeping powers that they gave themselves to impose anything they like at the CHO's discretion.

Have you crunched the numbers on Israel?

Are you not at all concerned that the evidence is mounting that the virus can not be eradicated and vaccines at least mRNA ones are ineffective against spread? Israel followed precisely the recommendations on how to roll out their vaccines.

The USA also used mRNA exclusively too I believe

We need a cure, not something that masks the symptoms like these ineffective "vaccines", that still allow you to get it and spread it, but slightly reduce the chances of death. It's just a band-aid solution. As soon as we open up again it's going to spread like wildfire, no matter how many people are vaxxed.


The message is slowly getting out there.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...r-problem.html

“The message that breakthrough cases are exceedingly rare and that you don’t have to worry about them if you’re vaccinated — that this is only an epidemic of the unvaccinated — that message is falling flat,” Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told me in the long interview that follows below. “If this was still Alpha, sure. But with Delta, plenty of people are getting sick. Plenty of transmission is going on. And my personal opinion is that the whole notion of herd immunity from two vaccine shots is flying out the window very quickly with this new variant.”

“We’re seeing a lot more spread in vaccinated people,” agreed Scripps’s Eric Topol, who estimated that the vaccines’ efficacy against symptomatic transmission, which he estimated to be 90 percent or above for the wild-type strain and all previous variants, had fallen to about 60 percent for Delta. “That’s a big drop.” Later, he suggested it might have fallen to 50 percent, and that new data about to be published in the U.S. would suggest an even lower rate. On Wednesday, a large pre-print study published by the Mayo clinic suggested the efficacy against infection had fallen as far as 42 percent.

[five 7]

Can't let Aussie have all the fun.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Case identified in Auckland community; no link to border or MIQ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12465559

[T3rminator]

Wow. Just heard the Feds are deploying their own response teams, AUSMAT, into NSW. Is this the first of its kind?

AUSMAT have so far been flawless in its management of hotel quarantine in NT. It might actually be a good idea for them to take over, although I think I heard they are only being deployed into some struggling regional areas.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by five 7

Can't let Aussie have all the fun.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Case identified in Auckland community; no link to border or MIQ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12465559

And NZ now in level 4 lockdown for at least 3 days as a result.

[MITCHAY]

I had to laugh when Barra and Gladys basically said that because of the threat from ACT, they locked down regional NSW.

I know some dickheads headed for the coast and but surely the rest of NSW is the bigger threat itself? Where do you think ACT got it from geniuses?

Barr has kept himself out of the **** fight with other premiers but I liked this from him

Operation Stay at Home is an excellent idea. It's a pity it didn't happen seven weeks ago.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

we are supposed to be driving from Regional Victoria to Fraser Island on September 10 - not looking good, thanks to the balls up of NSW

Trevor enjoy regional Victoria as I doubt any interstate travel will be possible for the rest of this year, with the delta variant it is proven it is hard to contain as it is spreading, all the states premiers know this is a game changer for the worse.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

We need a cure, not something that masks the symptoms like these ineffective "vaccines", that still allow you to get it and spread it, but slightly reduce the chances of death. It's just a band-aid solution. As soon as we open up again it's going to spread like wildfire, no matter how many people are vaxxed.


The message is slowly getting out there.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...r-problem.html

“The message that breakthrough cases are exceedingly rare and that you don’t have to worry about them if you’re vaccinated — that this is only an epidemic of the unvaccinated — that message is falling flat,” Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told me in the long interview that follows below. “If this was still Alpha, sure. But with Delta, plenty of people are getting sick. Plenty of transmission is going on. And my personal opinion is that the whole notion of herd immunity from two vaccine shots is flying out the window very quickly with this new variant.”

“We’re seeing a lot more spread in vaccinated people,” agreed Scripps’s Eric Topol, who estimated that the vaccines’ efficacy against symptomatic transmission, which he estimated to be 90 percent or above for the wild-type strain and all previous variants, had fallen to about 60 percent for Delta. “That’s a big drop.” Later, he suggested it might have fallen to 50 percent, and that new data about to be published in the U.S. would suggest an even lower rate. On Wednesday, a large pre-print study published by the Mayo clinic suggested the efficacy against infection had fallen as far as 42 percent.

My understanding is that while protection against breakthrough isn't as high it still offers very good protection against hospitalisation.

I'd rather be vaccinated.

[JasonACT]

I'd say, so do the under 16's, the under 12's, then under 2's and the 6 month olds.

[CyberWasp]

Am I right or wrong to assume that there is no vaccination approved for children?
If this is the case then how can things open up if adults are vaccinated but not the children?

[JasonACT]

"Am I right or wrong..."

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

And so they should. Child’s laughter often leads to mans laughter…

I don't know, to be honest, I only replied to this thread because ^^^ that was the funniest post I've seen in years.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

Am I right or wrong to assume that there is no vaccination approved for children?
If this is the case then how can things open up if adults are vaccinated but not the children?

From what I understand the UK has different rules for the under 18.

Children of vaccinated can be with vaccinated parents and have the same liberties as vaccinated adults.

[shedcoupe]

Originally Posted by cs123

My understanding is that while protection against breakthrough isn't as high it still offers very good protection against hospitalisation.

I'd rather be vaccinated.

This. I would think if someone could change a clutch or hang a downpipe off a gutter or complete any practical task, then it would be obvious that wearing a mask when required, isolating when required, getting vaccinated when it’s possible and keeping a clear head and thinking logically would be no-brainers.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by zipping

So you endorse Vicpol view that playgrounds must be policed to ensure children are not playing.

From what I said that was a big leap even for you but as it stands, those are the rules in play at the moment so yes.

Originally Posted by zipping

Have you crunched the numbers on Israel?
Are you not at all concerned that the evidence is mounting that the virus can not be eradicated and vaccines at least mRNA ones are ineffective against spread? Israel followed precisely the recommendations on how to roll out their vaccines.

I have been watching the numbers on Israel (along with the UK and Florida) and if you've been reading then you'd know what my conclusion has been to date.

Originally Posted by zipping

The USA also used mRNA exclusively too I believe

No - they are also using the single dose Janssen (Ad26.COV2.S) which is a non replicating viral vector vaccine.

[FairmontGS]

Qantas makes COVID-19 vaccinations mandatory for all of its workers

Qantas Group will make it mandatory for all of its 22,000 workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Frontline employees – including cabin crew, pilots and airport workers – will need to be fully vaccinated by November 15 and the remainder of employees by March 31.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...emic/100386206

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zipping

So you endorse Vicpol view that playgrounds must be policed to ensure children are not playing.

Well, if it's like my locale, kids in the playground are accompanied by parents, and those parents conveniently arrive at the same time as family friends and their kids. I live opposite a walking track, and the same thing happens there. Two family groups arrive, one big group sets off together. Even some of my FB friends brag about 'coincidental' meet-ups.

The entire point of these restrictions is to disconnect clusters. Cluster = all the people that can be linked via immediate household members, or work colleague close contacts. It's undermined when you start allowing clusters to connect.

Are you not at all concerned that the evidence is mounting that the virus can not be eradicated and vaccines at least mRNA ones are ineffective against spread?

We're buying time until we can get enough people vaccinated so that the health system isnt overcome. At some point, we reopen, and deal with the the resultant case growth and hospitalisations.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Qantas makes COVID-19 vaccinations mandatory for all of its workers



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...emic/100386206

I think those who are except must be such a small portion of the population, and airline staff know there industry is on its knees and in order to get going people need the jab so hard to see it any other way.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Pretty big jump in today's NSW cases.

NSW records 633 new local cases.

Meanwhile, NZ now has seven cases: all linked back to the NSW outbreak.

New Zealand has detected an additional two COVID cases
This brings the total to seven new community cases.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the outbreak has been traced back to NSW.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

I can't see NSW cases topping out at much ~600 in this current outbreak based on modelling but I should also say that model is based on the Victorian Wave II experience of last year where it appears, superficially at least, that the level of compliance was better and the restrictions tougher.

The model predicts that peak to arrive in about in about 8 more days but it's a rubbery estimate at best!

Pretty close on the prediction there, Russ. But I note this from today's presser:

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian gave us a grim warning:
"At the moment, according to the data we have, every person who has the virus is spreading it to at least more than one person.

"Now, for us to know that we have reached our peak, that can't continue.

"So what the data is telling us in the last few days is that we haven't seen the worst of it.

So, at this stage at least, it appears as though the peak is still yet to come.

[MITCHAY]

Man these Covid news conferences are a real **** show

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Man these Covid news conferences are a real **** show

For entertainment purposes only. Starting to mostly become a waste of time. Occasionally you get some tidbits of useful info from the vic presser. The occasional nsw ones I've seen are a joke. State wide lock down was done through twitter, rather than the presser, that tells you a lot.

[MITCHAY]

22 new cases in ACT. Total 67 of which 63 are linked. None in hospital. Nearly 8500 tests!

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 17th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

465 new cases for Australia and 1 deaths so the CMR is 2.413%.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.889%.

The UK had a lower 26,628 cases yesterday and higher 170 deaths for a CMR of 2.074%.

A lower 134,104 new cases in the USA yesterday and 756 deaths sees CMR at 1.693%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 209M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Malaysia moves above Bangladesh for total case numbers;

Georgia (6,208);
Cuba (9,774); and
Iran (50,228)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

North Macedonia, Angola and Montenegro move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Pretty close on the prediction there, Russ. But I note this from today's presser:
So, at this stage at least, it appears as though the peak is still yet to come.

Yes. I posted the revised predictive model yesterday and while it was a bit of a worst case scenario it shows a peak of just under 1,000 cases at the end of the next 10 days and the number today (633) is actually above that predictive trend line already.

It's also the first time that the NSW trend line has crossed above the Victorian one from last year but that's only because Victoria had actually passed the peak of 725 cases after which the decline was quite fast, dropping below 400 cases / day inside a week.

Disclaimer: I'm not saying the model below is anything like accurate as there are too many variables to consider and I'm fresh out of crystal balls but it's the best I can manage. I've added the actual numbers for NSW (the black solid line).

[ford71V8]

Getting close to the peak cases numbers we saw in Melb

[T3rminator]

NZ have made a claim that their covid case originated from NSW, but have yet to offer any further details. Given that the border bubble has been closed for a few weeks now, it'll be very interesting to hear how this has leaked in..... diplomat or sport related is my bet.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/ocea...18-p58jo7.html

Originally Posted by russellw

..........

Disclaimer: I'm not saying the model below is anything like accurate as there are too many variables to consider and I'm fresh out of crystal balls but it's the best I can manage. I've added the actual numbers for NSW (the black solid line).

image

Its going to be difficult to model because I think the case numbers now are a bit out of wack. Lots of people are reporting that they are not getting their test results back for as long as 4-5 days, which is not unexpected if they are being sent interstate for analysis. Others are saying that they are getting results back within 24 hours. The numbers you are seeing today is going to be some of what was tested a few days ago, so different daily numbers all mixed up.

[Polyal]

You should see the games being played in the workforce, ohhh look I am 3 days off the end of swing/week, Ive got the sniffles and I need to get a test.

Oh look, test takes 2-3 days so I guess its an early home time! FFS its a joke but its all within the rules right now.

[five 7]

Hey T3, genome testing said it was from NSW outbreak, there was a week before they shut the boarder from Aussie which they brought plane loads of Kiwis back without testing what could go wrong on Governments part here, most people i now thought this was madness, along with the Tauranga ports fiasco just another show of incompetence.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by five 7

Hey T3, genome testing said it was from NSW outbreak, there was a week before they shut the boarder from Aussie which they brought plane loads of Kiwis back without testing what could go wrong on Governments part here, most people i now thought this was madness, along with the Tauranga ports fiasco just another show of incompetence.

Bubble was shut on the 23rd July......3.5 weeks ago. SO if we go with the 2 weeks incubation period, it would mean either the first case has been infectious for a while (1.5 weeks?), or it has come after the bubble shut. Hmmmmm Not testing returnees sounds crazzzzzyyyy

[five 7]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Bubble was shut on the 23rd July......3.5 weeks ago. SO if we go with the 2 weeks incubation period, it would mean either the first case has been infectious for a while (1.5 weeks?), or it has come after the bubble shut. Hmmmmm Not testing returnees sounds crazzzzzyyyy

Picking it's been festering here for a bit from the returnees, lots of colds and a large RSV outbreak so it flew under the radar for a bit.