Covid 19 -

[Citroënbender]

No surprise to me, that current Sydney cases are concentrated in areas with high numbers of older flat buildings. You have one infected person coughing their way through an under-maintained stairwell that accesses 12 units - what’s likely to happen?

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by five 7

Picking it's been festering here for a bit from the returnees, lots of colds and a large RSV outbreak so it flew under the radar for a bit.

I find it amusing that bubble was closed But that doesn't exclude freight coming in and out daily as a point.
Whos to know where it came from ? oh patient 0, have this been quoted over there ? anyway no matter, they had a good run, had to make a return.
Assumptions are a plenty - like reading so much online.
Is anyone surprised you can't keep the boggie man out forever.
We've been on a very lucky path to date despite the countless blunders a plenty.
Delta is the modern day stealth bomber - spreading like wildfire.
Thankfully its triggered getting vaccines and people waking up - the only hope for all, well those that believe in it and led to believe.

CB, its amazing when you check out the Sydney active map.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...burb/100331444
Considering 633 infections being centered in the sth west.
There's a mix of old and countless new apartment dwellings all over Sydney nowadays imo not just fixed round those areas being old the way development has progressed over the years.

[zilo]

I have a theory.

14 days quarantine is influenza logic, this corona virus is different.

I reckon 14 days is not long enough.


The practice of quarantine, as we know it, began during the 14th century in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. ... This practice, called quarantine, was derived from the Italian words quaranta giorni which mean 40 days.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by zilo

I have a theory.

14 days quarantine is influenza logic, this corona virus is different.

I reckon 14 days is not long enough.


The practice of quarantine, as we know it, began during the 14th century in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. ... This practice, called quarantine, was derived from the Italian words quaranta giorni which mean 40 days.

I absolutely agree. It should be 14 days, then another 14 days at home. This protects if you catch it in your last day in quarantine from another "inmate".

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by zilo

I have a theory.

14 days quarantine is influenza logic, this corona virus is different.

I reckon 14 days is not long enough.


The practice of quarantine, as we know it, began during the 14th century in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. ... This practice, called quarantine, was derived from the Italian words quaranta giorni which mean 40 days.

My cousin and his family returned from overseas a few months ago. Did 14 days in hotel, then voluntarily did another 7 days at home. Because overseas, they are seeing that 14 days may not be enough, and he did it to protect us.

This was after having to do 14 days quarantine whilst overseas, because the wife tested positive pre-flight. Which we believe was a false positive, because the whole family, including the son, tested negative, and 3 of her subsequent tests were all negative.

Ouch!

[Charliewool]

I have a feeling quarantine will soon increase to 21 days?
Evidence suggests Delta variant is infectious for at least 18 days

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

I have a feeling quarantine will soon increase to 21 days?

I’m sure our governments will be ecstatic; pro-rated that’s another 50% quarantine income. That said, with the inevitability of government-issued contracts going pear-shaped the cost of dedicated facility construction will probably now increase 75%.

Have been trying to second-guess the long game in NSW, and starting to wonder if they’re gunning for a “normal” 2022 school year as a practical goal. The way various figures have casually swept aside months of this year in passing speech is jarring to me; I think of people with terminal illnesses whose remaining “good” time is being burned up.

[slowsnake]

Strange thing happened to me in Perth on Tuesday, had to go to local hospital for ultrasound, abdomen/liver and my parotid glands ( they are behind an a little below ya ears )...the girl operator pushed on my neck and throat both sides, she pushed so hard that I woke up Wednesday with a very sore throat?
The parotid gland is your mouths salivary gland, not sure what she did but I am now the owner of the sorest throat ever, can't swallow, worst still I got a very runny nose and it just feels like normal wintertime ailment/s

Signed into hospital and disinfected my hands so all good, but all the folk using their phone apps did not disinfect their hands?...whats the go there, what's the point of either if you don't disinfect your hands then use the stair handrail to climb stairs!
They have people there to monitor this and I did ask why they didn't monitor everyone equally, was told it's up to individual, either app in or sign in but disinfection was preferred not a fixed rule!

But where the hell did my symptoms come from, feels like normal cold or flu, keeping myself rugged up, got to go to oncology this morning and I think I'm better off cancelling it, these mainly poor women sitting with no hair just a scarf on head, I feel just for these poor folk I should not go, what do you mob think, and I am asking in all sincerity.


Cheers Billy.

[Polyal]

Could be a coincidence but I am noticing people getting more edgey of late...we really need to get these jabs done and start getting on with life.

Seems most other countries have come to the fact that its just going to be around for a while and we need to do our best to live/combat it.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Could be a coincidence but I am noticing people getting more edgey of late...we really need to get these jabs done and start getting on with life.

Seems most other countries have come to the fact that its just going to be around for a while and we need to do our best to live/combat it.

Yes, I live in Perth which is covid free, that's in big inverted commas, and I have noticed it, mainly with myself, but others being short with everyone, in shops especially, you are spot on 100%.


Cheers Billy

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Yes, I live in Perth which is covid free, that's in big inverted commas, and I have noticed it, mainly with myself, but others being short with everyone, in shops especially, you are spot on 100%.


Cheers Billy

Problem is we are balls deep now in the current plan and its going to be egg on face all round if its not completed. That 70-80% cant come soon enough.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Problem is we are balls deep now in the current plan and its going to be egg on face all round if its not completed. That 70-80% cant come soon enough.

Being here in Perth we seem to think/ feel that it's not going to come here to WA.
All my info about statistics I get from Russel on his daily posts, I don't believe what they talk up on TV, I find that I get more precise info from this thread, at least I can look all over the world and see how its progressing world wide!

But it's got to hit WA eventually, I live right near or within 5 klm from the end of the Great Eastern Hwy, every truck from over East stops and unloads here!
It's got to get here one way or another, and its one person who is going to bring it here, not a hundred but only one individual


Cheers Billy.

[T3rminator]

"big case numbers" expected in Melb. Yesterday was the day 13th test for the Al Taqwa isolaters, so there will be a spike from those households. Lets hope community and mystery numbers are low

Originally Posted by Polyal

Could be a coincidence but I am noticing people getting more edgey of late...we really need to get these jabs done and start getting on with life.

Seems most other countries have come to the fact that its just going to be around for a while and we need to do our best to live/combat it.

You live in rural don't you? And its your first lock down? Not surprised people are edgy. People are also now seeing friends on social media in other parts of the world living more freely which adds to FOMO.

If we can see the end in sight it would help to take the edge off.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

"big case numbers" expected in Melb. Yesterday was the day 13th test for the Al Taqwa isolaters, so there will be a spike from those households. Lets hope community and mystery numbers are low

57 cases for Vic today. Certainly on the rise.

Good news is that 44 were in quarantine for their infectious period.

[DJR-351]

Professor Crabb forecasting NSW will see around 2000 cases p/day in a months time if 'things' don't change immediately...

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

57 cases for Vic today. Certainly on the rise.

Good news is that 44 were in quarantine for their infectious period.

Bad news is 13 were out and about. Who are these people? We weren't getting these sorts of "out and abouts" previously.


If people test positive on day 13 of isolation, I assume they have to start isolation again for another 14 days? What happens to the rest of their household? That would make it 27-28 days in total. Ouch.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

"big case numbers" expected in Melb. Yesterday was the day 13th test for the Al Taqwa isolaters, so there will be a spike from those households. Lets hope community and mystery numbers are low



You live in rural don't you? And its your first lock down? Not surprised people are edgy. People are also now seeing friends on social media in other parts of the world living more freely which adds to FOMO.

If we can see the end in sight it would help to take the edge off.

Not our area as such, pretty much everyone is still working as a high percentage are "essential". I dont know anyone who isnt at work or WHM a little.

No just what I see on FB from people in Vic mostly....no playgrounds, WTF.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Bad news is 13 were out and about. Who are these people? We weren't getting these sorts of "out and abouts" previously.


If people test positive on day 13 of isolation, I assume they have to start isolation again for another 14 days? What happens to the rest of their household? That would make it 27-28 days in total. Ouch.

There was a comment in QLD about this. When someone who is a primary contact tests positive, the clock resets.

So if you are in a house under 14 days isolation, and on day 13 another family member tests positive, then you've got another 14 days :(

Would be very hard going for a family.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Not our area as such, pretty much everyone is still working as a high percentage are "essential". I dont know anyone who isnt at work or WHM a little.

No just what I see on FB from people in Vic mostly....no playgrounds, WTF.

Yeh, 200 days will do that to ya. Playgrounds overdone by the media IMHO. I swear there are some "journalists" deliberately trying to undermine the health response, they constantly put out articles to stoke resentment and outrage. A lot of the playgrounds were shut during wave 2, but no one made a peep. Playgrounds are also shut in some parts of Syd.

The oval where I take my dog to have a run has a playground hidden away from the main road. You often see large groups of families congregating there whilst their kids play, masks down. So I get why they are doing it.

Lots of other activities can be done for the next 2 weeks. Kick the footy, teach them to ride a bike etc.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

Professor Crabb forecasting NSW will see around 2000 cases p/day in a months time if 'things' don't change immediately...

Not going to change immediately

We're done, horse bolted.
As Polyal mentions, vax is the only resort seeing light at the end of the tunnel and thats way off as we know.
At least I'm hearing vax rates increasing fast in Sth West Sydney.

As mentioned by T3, Melbourne is celebrating its 200th day of lockdown today and about 13 months of consecutive face mask laws.
Lets pray no specific groups don't see this as having a gathering/party.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by FTE217

As mentioned by T3, Melbourne is celebrating its 200th day of lockdown today and about 13 months of consecutive face mask laws.

How Melbourne compares to other states/countries by the most lockdown days;

Buenos Aires - 234
London - 207
Czech Republic - 201
MELBOURNE - 200
Bangladesh - 169
Paris - 161
Azerbaijan - 152
New York -119
Belgium - 119
Delhi -117
California - 110
Sydney - 106
Singapore - 101
Johannesburg - 93
Wuhan - 76
Moscow - 76
Auckland - 73

[CoupeKing]

Die before jab = covid 19.

Die after jab. = random coincidence probably related to nothing in particular.

I'm not an anti-vaccer, just pro-choice. And I won't be taking health advice of a fat person living with metabolic syndrome.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

How Melbourne compares to other states/countries by the most lockdown days;

Buenos Aires - 234
London - 207
Czech Republic - 201
MELBOURNE - 200
Bangladesh - 169
Paris - 161
Azerbaijan - 152
New York -119
Belgium - 119
Delhi -117
California - 110
Sydney - 106
Singapore - 101
Johannesburg - 93
Wuhan - 76
Moscow - 76
Auckland - 73

be interesting to back that with current vaccination rate of 2nd dose.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

Professor Crabb forecasting NSW will see around 2000 cases p/day in a months time if 'things' don't change immediately...

My apologies, the radio stated he forecasted 2000 p/day but in his actual interview he said 3000 to 4000 p/day.....and suggests an Italy/UK type outcome is possible if the situation continues....

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...-cliff-_180821

He predicts cases could even reach 4000 in the next 30 days.

"Last time I spoke on this program, we had 97 cases, 30 days ago. We are now at 600. If we speak again in 30 days, it will be three to 4000 cases.

"That is what we're on track for at the moment. That's a catastrophe from a health point of view. This is when our health system is now straining, really straining. That means health issues, not related to COVID, are deeply affected as well as those related to COVID."

"I think we need to draw a line and reset around a program of uniformity, where everything is the same for every person, of clarity, simple set of rules force every person and every business," Professor Crabb said.

"Without this, we face being like Italy was in March 2020. Like the UK was through much of 2020. Like we have seen in places where hospital beds are overflowing and devastating the whole community. That can happen here."

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

How Melbourne compares to other states/countries by the most lockdown days;

Buenos Aires - 234
London - 207
Czech Republic - 201
MELBOURNE - 200
Bangladesh - 169
Paris - 161
Azerbaijan - 152
New York -119
Belgium - 119
Delhi -117
California - 110
Sydney - 106
Singapore - 101
Johannesburg - 93
Wuhan - 76
Moscow - 76
Auckland - 73

2 notable ones to me, with all the massive numbers Italy incurred they don't even get in the richter scale of lockdown days let alone Brazil another.
Then where the bat or whatever one wishs to call plague originater Wuhan just 76.
CCP is CCP people are expendable I guess.
Down right ridiculous when you think the number abroad have suffered and both our main cities where they are in the mix.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

NSW records 681 cases of community transmission
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has started speaking.

The case numbers are the highest number of new cases the state has ever recorded in a day.

A man in his 80s died from the virus at St George Hospital. He had had one dose of the vaccine and had underlying health conditions.

There were 119,000 tests.

There were 110,000 who received a vaccine, taking the total to 5.5 million.

Sixty-one people have died in the current Delta outbreak.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 18th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

694 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR is 2.379%. NSW sets another daily case high with 634.

10 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.886%.

The UK had a higher 33,646 cases yesterday and lower 111 deaths for a CMR of 2.065%.

A higher 155,725 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,073 deaths sees CMR at 1.689%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 210M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Global deaths pass 4.4M, the last 50k in 5 days;
The USA passes 38M cases;

Laos (381);
Benin (1,118) - weekly reported;
Sri Lanka (3,676);
Guatemala (4,650);
Malaysia (22,242)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Ivory Coast moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

New Zealand authorities link new Delta variant case to Sydney
"From the whole genome sequence analysis our current positive cases are a close match to a recent returnee from Sydney who arrived on a managed red zone flight on August 7, had a day one test on August 8, returning a positive result on August 9," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

"It means we now know how and when the virus entered the country and that based on timelines there are minimal, possibly only one or two, missing links between this returnee and cases in our current outbreak and the period in which cases were in the community is relatively short.

"Today we believe we have uncovered the piece of the puzzle we were looking for and that means our ability to circle the virus and lock it down and stamp it out generally has greatly improved."

Investigations are now underway to determine how COVID-19 spread from someone inside the hotel quarantine system.

The country is under a strict nationwide lockdown as authorities race to trace down all lines of transmission.

Thousands of close contacts have been identified and the list of exposure sites is growing, but New Zealand's strategy of a level four nationwide lockdown is designed to place the country under quarantine conditions.

[russellw]

Despite what was reported by Channel 9 news yesterday, the 634 cases for NSW yesterday was not a record high for Australia, that dubious honour belonging to Victoria with 725 cases on August 5th, 2020.

Having said that, the 681 reported today is another new high for NSW and the trend graph is worsening as you'd expect with predictive numbers now well over 1,000 in the next 10 days but as I said yesterday, it can turn downward quickly as it did in Victoria.

What we can see from the graph is that the NSW case growth was slower than that in Victoria for most of the first 40 days but it has now risen above the Victorian peak and the actual case numbers are currently above the model predictions.




I did see the predictions being made in the media that forecast 2-4,000 cases / day but frankly, modelling much beyond the next 10 days is fraught with danger at least until the actual peak is attained.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Strange thing happened to me in Perth on Tuesday, had to go to local hospital for ultrasound, abdomen/liver and my parotid glands ( they are behind an a little below ya ears )...the girl operator pushed on my neck and throat both sides, she pushed so hard that I woke up Wednesday with a very sore throat?
The parotid gland is your mouths salivary gland, not sure what she did but I am now the owner of the sorest throat ever, can't swallow, worst still I got a very runny nose and it just feels like normal wintertime ailment/s

Signed into hospital and disinfected my hands so all good, but all the folk using their phone apps did not disinfect their hands?...whats the go there, what's the point of either if you don't disinfect your hands then use the stair handrail to climb stairs!
They have people there to monitor this and I did ask why they didn't monitor everyone equally, was told it's up to individual, either app in or sign in but disinfection was preferred not a fixed rule!

But where the hell did my symptoms come from, feels like normal cold or flu, keeping myself rugged up, got to go to oncology this morning and I think I'm better off cancelling it, these mainly poor women sitting with no hair just a scarf on head, I feel just for these poor folk I should not go, what do you mob think, and I am asking in all sincerity.


Cheers Billy.

Simple If you are showing signs of Covid symptoms go get tested.