Covid 19 -

[Citroënbender]

It’s worth noting that in excess of 10000 NSW residents will have died since June 16, 2021, on the crude average of about 153 NSW deaths per day using 2019 statistical data. I believe this gross number is frequently being overlooked.

The number of NSW deaths ascribed to Covid in this period are around six-tenths of one percent per this running total.

Also worth noting, one reasonably accredited doctor saying that hospitals could cope with an increase in Covid cases (near end of article):

https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-a...7-6b9d57def5b4

Aside from that, I’m intrigued that Harris Park is staying out of the spotlight with respect to concentration of Covid cases. I honestly expected it to be more prevalent, along with Meadowbank west of the railway.

[MITCHAY]

16 new cases for ACT. Total 83. I think something like 20k+ in quarantine

2 new cases in Queanbeyan.

[T3rminator]

Sometimes you get tidbits of useful info from the pressers. Just heard DA say that the Doherty Institute modelling of 70% and 80% vaccination is based on case numbers being relatively low to start with (not in their 1000s). So if we achieve those vaccination numbers and there are 1000s of cases a day, then the 70% and 80% modelling will need to be revisited.

So unless every state does what is required to keep the numbers as low as possible, me thinks there will be a rejig of what restrictions can be eased at 70% and 80%. And with NSW already talking about easing their own restrictions at 50%, I think this will become inevitable.

[russellw]

Easing restrictions at less than 80% fully vaccinated is still a dangerous thing to attempt in my view while case numbers are increasing everywhere it's taken hold.

Some people (based on current data) who have had only a single jab will die and even some of those who are fully vaccinated will die but the numbers will be much lower than those for the unvaccinated which is a good thing.

We also know that vaccinated people can still contract (and transmit) the virus which leaves the unvaccinated at risk and that could still rapidly fill our ICU's and hospitals.
The last 14 days has seen 5,700 cases in NSW (~400 / day) and the current hospitalised number is 474 people with 82 in ICU and 60 having died.

At the current rate, the next 14 days would see 8,400 new cases, 694 more hospital cases and 120 in ICU all of which numbers are within existing capacity but we would start to see issues if case numbers rose to the predicted 2k cases / day as that would put increasing pressure on the health care system to cope (~2,300 hospitalisations and >400 in ICU) over a 14 day period.

You can do your own numbers. The current hospitalisation rate is about 8.3% of cases and the ICU rate about 1.4% which is about twice the rate that applied to the original strain of the virus.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

NSW on the verge of being classifed as a 'extreme risk' to WA
WA Premier Mark McGowan has warned the state is likely to escalate the New South Wales risk level to "extreme" in the coming days.

The change would usher in the most severe state border restrictions seen in Australia since the start of the pandemic, including mandatory hotel quarantine, very limited exemptions and three COVID-19 tests during quarantine.

Mr McGowan said the situation in New South Wales was "approaching a crisis", with the state's highest number of COVID-19 cases so far reported today.

"It's rapidly approaching a crisis situation if not already a crisis situation in that state," he said.

"We've got to do everything we can to protect ourselves heading down that pathway.

"Our expectation is that in coming days we will go to an extreme risk situation with New South Wales – I haven't got an exact timeframe on that, but we're monitoring and getting health advice."

Mr McGowan also clarified what the tipping point would be for WA to switch NSW from 'high risk' to 'extreme risk'.

"Over 500 cases, on a rolling average of between five to 14 days," he said.

[FTE217]

Just close up shop McGowan.
Stop talking just do it.
Just make sure all freight and incoming goods managed by companies are germ free.
IF you can keep it out good on youse.

[MITCHAY]

Vaccination rates are trending in the right direction. 50% first dose and 28% second dose. 309k administered done in the past day.

16-39 will be eligible to book Pfizer from Aug 30.

Originally Posted by FTE217

Just close up shop McGowan.
Stop talking just do it.
Just make sure all freight and incoming goods managed by companies are germ free.
IF you can keep it out good on youse.

That's what the remote is for. Can't stand the flog

[DJR-351]

As far as the Qld Government is concerned....

https://www.qld.gov.au/health/condit...-from-overseas

As of 1am 19 August 2021 New Zealand has been removed as a safe travel zone country.

[Falcon SXR8]

Had my first dose of pfizer today and ghdjezzoieuhn boigdg sbiujgb 5g join the cult ckdhytgsvjmhvb i feel fine.

I was one of the wait and see people. After waiting and weighing up the facts ( as best you can these days ) decided I was better off getting it for my health and hopefully others around me. There is no guarantees in life and you have to make the best of what you have.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Yeh, 200 days will do that to ya. Playgrounds overdone by the media IMHO. I swear there are some "journalists" deliberately trying to undermine the health response, they constantly put out articles to stoke resentment and outrage. A lot of the playgrounds were shut during wave 2, but no one made a peep. Playgrounds are also shut in some parts of Syd.

The oval where I take my dog to have a run has a playground hidden away from the main road. You often see large groups of families congregating there whilst their kids play, masks down. So I get why they are doing it.

Lots of other activities can be done for the next 2 weeks. Kick the footy, teach them to ride a bike etc.

The difference is last year the police weren’t told to patrol parks. This week they were. Even they said this is going too far, and they made it clear to andrews they didn’t want to do it, it was crossing the line.

[Citroënbender]

Back from an approx 4km walk, I weave in and out the street grid to get the mileage up but not go far from base. There’s a large new-style playground I pass, it’s interesting to see how the rules are flexed. Parents chat across a nominal distance while their kids play together. Other people park in adjacent streets and one will get out, approach the window of a friend’s car to socialise that way. (All it’s missing is the cash and drugs. )

Also noting the large number of recurrent coincidental meetings between couples walking the streets with dogs. Barely any of the numerous construction sites have the mandated QR sheets, and staff packing up into twilight, seldom masked.

The good bit of walking this week is it’s prime flowering season for Prunus spp. Magnolias are fading, the larger camellias still strong but an absolutely killer year for those fragrant pink blossoms.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

It’s worth noting that in excess of 10000 NSW residents will have died since June 16, 2021, on the crude average of about 153 NSW deaths per day using 2019 statistical data. I believe this gross number is frequently being overlooked.

The number of NSW deaths ascribed to Covid in this period are around six-tenths of one percent per this running total.

Also worth noting, one reasonably accredited doctor saying that hospitals could cope with an increase in Covid cases (near end of article):

Covid isn't good, but some people don't realize how much death actually occurs each day.
So far today the worlds population has grown by 190,620 people. That's after 138,000 deaths and counting

8,211,289 Communicable disease deaths this year
312,058 Seasonal flu deaths this year
4,807,873 Deaths of children under 5 this year
26,973,900 Abortions this year
195,507 Deaths of mothers during birth this year
1,063,318 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
5,194,897 Deaths caused by cancer this year
249,431 Deaths caused by malaria this year
3,162,024 Deaths caused by smoking this year
1,582,010 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
678,289 Suicides this year
853,846 Road traffic accident fatalities this year
26,319 People who died of hunger today
532,661 Deaths caused by water related
diseases this year

This isn't a competition, just a little reality check.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Covid isn't good, but some people don't realize how much death actually occurs each day.
So far today the worlds population has grown by 190,620 people. That's after 138,000 deaths and counting

8,211,289 Communicable disease deaths this year
312,058 Seasonal flu deaths this year
4,807,873 Deaths of children under 5 this year
26,973,900 Abortions this year
195,507 Deaths of mothers during birth this year
1,063,318 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
5,194,897 Deaths caused by cancer this year
249,431 Deaths caused by malaria this year
3,162,024 Deaths caused by smoking this year
1,582,010 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
678,289 Suicides this year
853,846 Road traffic accident fatalities this year
26,319 People who died of hunger today
532,661 Deaths caused by water related
diseases this year

This isn't a competition, just a little reality check.

This difference is for the bulk of this we have management processes in place as we have had time to develop plans to address.

When something new pops up clearly we react to the treat and adjust the plan along the way.

I get what you and others are saying but the fact is this is a new cause of death and the world needed to respond the best it could with the information it had at the time.

Politics etc gets in the way but thats our system for now and everyone is a champion with hindsight.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Covid isn't good, but some people don't realize how much death actually occurs each day.
So far today the worlds population has grown by 190,620 people. That's after 138,000 deaths and counting

You know I always thought that malaria was the number one killer in the world, not sure where I got that from but it maybe old stats?


Cheers Billy

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...ions/100391760

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

You know I always thought that malaria was the number one killer in the world, not sure where I got that from but it maybe old stats?


Cheers Billy

Once upon a time it may have been, or for a certain region. Did you mean to say that the Mosquito is or was the most deadly animal to humans?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...ions/100391760

We have our nutters too but people like Ron DeSantis are down right scary and show how politics can mess with peoples good will...

[DJR-351]

‘Makes sense’ to temporarily shift NSW-Qld border: former treasurer

https://www.smh.com.au/national/aust...=p52phd#p52phd

Former federal treasurer and Queensland MP Wayne Swan has weighed into the NSW-Qld border debate that’s been bubbling along for a couple of days now.

As you might already know, there are calls to temporarily shift the NSW border a couple of kilometres south to avoid traffic delays for thousands of essential workers who live in northern NSW but work in the Sunshine State.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has written to her counterparts in NSW. However, the Berejiklian government has so far rejected the proposal.

Here’s what Mr Swan, who is currently serving as the national president of the Labor Party, had to say on the Today show earlier this morning:

“I think they should move [the border] 7kms or whatever the number is. As you well know, these are twin cities. The decision of the NSW Government not to accept the proposal from Queensland is a kick in the guts for all of those residents of the Tweed [Shire]. They are twin cities.

“It makes sense to avoid disruption to that border for the purposes of COVID further south. I just don’t get it. It is more dumb politics from the NSW Government.”

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Polyal

We have our nutters too but people like Ron DeSantis are down right scary and show how politics can mess with peoples good will...

Is that true? Or have you fallen for the; WOKE, PC, MSM propaganda that masks and so called vaccinations actually do anything against the fake pandemic!?








See what I did there?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Is that true? Or have you fallen for the; WOKE, PC, MSM propaganda that masks and so called vaccinations actually do anything against the fake pandemic!?


See what I did there?

LOL I had to google WOKE, no idea what that was/is.

Just booked in for my jab finally, if I wanted Pfizer then it was a 4 week wait, AZ ok to go next week. It didnt seem to effect the old man who isnt a picture of health so we will see how it goes.

[Tassie f100]

I have been a bit of a fence sitter on this vaccination thing,not being able to decide whether it is or isn’t the answer.Now it seems that Scomo says it will never be manadatory but the state Govt,s are making their own back door rules to basically make it mandatory by closing more and more establishments no go unless fully vaccinated.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Polyal

LOL I had to google WOKE, no idea what that was/is.

Just booked in for my jab finally, if I wanted Pfizer then it was a 4 week wait, AZ ok to go next week. It didnt seem to effect the old man who isnt a picture of health so we will see how it goes.

I see that the name for the AstraZeneca vaccine has now been changed to Vaxzevria in Australia, to align it with the name used in Europe. Not sure what the shortened name for it will be. but there's been a few suggestions on the ABC Covid blog this morning.

I think my fave is Vaccas, but that could cause some issues if someone mishears it

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

I see that the name for the AstraZeneca vaccine has now been changed to Vaxzevria in Australia, to align it with the name used in Europe. Not sure what the shortened name for it will be. but there's been a few suggestions on the ABC Covid blog this morning.

I think my fave is Vaccas, but that could cause some issues if someone mishears it

Interestingly I asked if I could have Pfizer on the 2nd jab and they said no, have to keep with the same?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The difference is last year the police weren’t told to patrol parks. This week they were. Even they said this is going too far, and they made it clear to andrews they didn’t want to do it, it was crossing the line.

Pollies can't tell cops what to do. They set the rules and police enforce it how they best see fit. No different to last year. Haven't heard of anyone getting fined for being in a park not breaking rules.

Sky news tweeted a rumour that choppers were being sent to parks, hovering above telling parents to leave. It turned out to be a lie. VicPol responded to the tweet and they had to delete it. Too many lies being spread.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Interestingly I asked if I could have Pfizer on the 2nd jab and they said no, have to keep with the same?

A few pages back I posted that there is nothing medically to stop mix and match vaccines and some countries are doing it as a matter of course because research has shown that in terms of efficacy, 1 AZ + 1 Pfizer (in that order) is more effective than two AZ and only just behind the rate for two Pfizer.

[T3rminator]

55 local cases in Vic today, 30 were not fully isolated during the infectious period. Looks like we are going down the Sydney path.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Positive case recorded in Shepparton
Victoria's COVID-19 outbreak has spread to regional Victoria, as the state records 55 new locally acquired cases.

Goulburn Valley Health has confirmed a new case of COVID-19 in Shepparton in Victoria's north.

Chief executive Matt Sharp says the person is currently at home and isolating.

Traces of Covid-19 have been detected in wastewater in the area recently.

We'll no doubt hear more in Victoria's press conference at 11:00am AEST.

My prediction: regional Vic will be in lockdown by this time next week.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

My prediction: regional Vic will be in lockdown by this time next week.

Hopefully not, but they seem to enjoy playing that tune.

The harshening of NSW’s lockdown continues. A curfew for some, restrictions on travelling between places of residence even in Sydney, masks everywhere. Less time allowed for exercise. All for at least another 5½ weeks. I think this may cost the government some portion of their remaining credibility.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT August 19th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

747 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR is 2.336%. NSW sets another daily case high with 684.

18 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.884%.

The UK had a higher 36,273 cases yesterday and higher 113 deaths for a CMR of 2.055%.

A higher 162,341 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,854 deaths sees CMR at 1.686%.

Other notable points:
Asia passes 67M cases;

Brunei (190);
Saint Martin (381) - weekly reported
Sri Lanka (3,806);
Guatemala (5,826);
Guadeloupe (8,157) - weekly reported;
Vietnam (10,654);
Malaysia (22,948);
Japan (23,918); and
Mexico (28,953)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

The United Kingdom and Nigeria move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Spain drops below.

[russellw]

NSW finally came off slightly today with 646 cases which brings the actual numbers back level with the trend line in the predictive graph below.