Covid 19 -

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

So what is the Premier of Victoria doing differently to the Premiers of Tasmania.....blah...blah...blah,

Easy...we don't have any restrictions at all....and no covid cases.

But it's sure getting lonely...

[Citroënbender]

I’ve got to say, hayfever and a face mask do not play well together.

[slowsnake]

Just received an email from my brother David's wife who live in Cheshire UK.
It's from someone on the ground, so birds eye view of UK life!


QUOTE:-
Dear Billy,
Just reading back through the last message and remembering our time with you out in the bush - what a brilliant time we had, whenever I tell anybody about it I always say it was something we would never have been able to do without you and a time we will both remember for ever, thank you for the best time and brilliant memories.

Emily has just gone back to school, the new school year starts in September here - she’s a big galoot - fourteen in a couple of weeks - where did that time go? I’m attaching a photo of her and your big brother taken in August, Emily had come to stay for a couple of days during the school holidays so we had gone out to buy her some books - she absolutely loves reading - but she also needed refuelling so we called into the Costa Coffee shop, I took this photo of them in the queue - which is why it’s the back view - just wanted to get on record that at 13 she’s almost as tall as her Granddad�� The school and her swimming and horse riding clubs had been hit by COVID restrictions and are only just opening up again really so she couldn’t wait to get back into it all, she really missed school and although they went back after Easter it was only on a part-time basis. They went back properly for a couple of months before the six week break (end of July to beginning of September- allegedly summer ��) but they all had to wear face masks. The swimming club was closed completely until July and horse riding only opened up again a few weeks before that. Manda and John are both ok, Manda started a new job earlier in the year, think it was June - jury is still out on whether she will stay there, some days she thinks she’s getting into it, then it driving her nuts, but for now it’s a job and pays her bills. John has only just been able to go back to work now that the government have allowed pubs to reopen, people are happy to be getting out and about again and getting back to some version of normal. We’re still a bit cautious - going out for shopping and walks and suchlike but not bothering with much else just yet. We’ve both had two COVID vaccines and are due to get our annual flu vaccine on 21st so we’ve done all we can and it is good to be able to see Manda and John again and to have Emily to stay and be able to get out if we want to.
END QUOTE;-


PS:- Manda is my niece, Emily her daughter,John is stepfather!


Cheers Billy

[Trevor 57]

One I received from a mate in South East England last Sunday, they are in their 70's:

You did indeed Trev and I replied.

We are both ok considering everything, and with virus now in tens of thousands per day is sort of a miracle. Even with both jabs you still have a gradual immunity decline from 83%, so big debate on whether to do booster jabs.

Seeing stupidity around on a daily basis we decided it was only ourselves who could look after things for us so we are still using masks etc and keeping clear of people if we can. I see the army(?) was brought out in Sydney to make people behave so stupidity seems to be a worldwide affliction!!!

Anyhow look after yourselves as it’s the best way.

Best wishes P and B

[Trevor 57]

He sent me these:

[ute83]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

image

Now that is a Prime Minister.


By the way has anybody seen the interview between Gladys and Kyle/Jackie?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by ute83

Now that is a Prime Minister.


By the way has anybody seen the interview between Gladys and Kyle/Jackie?

Not seen interview and won't watch it, why?....because I don't like people with a "vowel " sound for a surname, and when Kyle opens his big gob we get a " bowel " sound!......



Cheers Billy

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by ute83

Now that is a Prime Minister.

firstly both my wife and I thought that at the time he was the worst of the worst, but we have been thinking lately even he would have done a better job than the current PM, at least (though his volunteer CFS work) he has some compassion

Originally Posted by ute83

By the way has anybody seen the interview between Gladys and Kyle/Jackie?

not sure about Jackie, but Kyle makes my skin crawl

[CoupeKing]

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

I wonder if this braniac gets his kids to wear a seatbelt, you know, because there is only a 0.0001 chance that he will be in a crash.

[Trevor 57]

the world is full of self righteous ****heads

My wife has one of these idiots she has to deal with weekly, their stupidity is astounding. No consideration that his behaviour is putting my wife, the children in her care and other parents at risk, as long as he makes his stupid ****ing statement.

If I had my way I would ban the ****er from my house, but it is my wife's business and she has to follow the directions of her bosses. To their credit that are telling him he must comply, but we will see the next time he show up. I have decided I am going to be standing there, arms folded, glaring at the ****-head

[Citroënbender]

Mixed day for NSW, steadily ceding ground to Victoria on case count, and lagging slightly more in vaccination rates - particularly first shots.

If this latter detail reflects a national trend, we will struggle to get that 80% “Goldmember” figure of fully vaccinated eligible Australians.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Yass in a snap lockdown now for 2 weeks.

Apparently some road map will be announced tomorrow for the ACT but fully expect another lockdown extension to go with it.

Bad news for you and your fellow Territorians, MITCHAY:

ACT lockdown extended for four weeks
That's until Friday, October 15.

There will be come concessions and eased restrictions, though.

Mr Barr says priority is to vaccinate as many people as possible over the next month.

The ACT has been in lockdown since August 12.

The territory originally entered a seven-day lockdown, but an extension saw that end date pushed to Friday.

Half of the territory's population has been fully vaccinated.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 13th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,762 new cases for Australia and 7 deaths so the CMR is 1.457%.

36 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.684%.

The UK had a higher 30,283 cases yesterday and higher 61 deaths for a CMR of 1.850%.

A higher 186,264 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,193 deaths (some of each carried over from the weekend) sees CMR at 1.616%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 126M, the last 1M in 2days;
Global deaths pass 4.65M, the last 50k in 5 days;
North America moves below the 90th percentile over the 10 day period;
The USA passes 42M cases;
Brazil passes 21M cases;

No countries

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Canada moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

not sure about Jackie, but Kyle makes my skin crawl

Kyle is an A grade Wuckfit..

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 1,136 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9769 (from 0.9939) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve.



VIC records 445 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases slightly to 1.1135 (from 1.1108) while the actual line is back level with the predictive trend line.



At the end of the outbreak week (this being week 9), here is the comparative graph between the two current outbreaks and the Victorian 2020 outbreak.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Bad news for you and your fellow Territorians, MITCHAY:

ACT lockdown extended for four weeks
That's until Friday, October 15.

There will be come concessions and eased restrictions, though.

Mr Barr says priority is to vaccinate as many people as possible over the next month.

The ACT has been in lockdown since August 12.

The territory originally entered a seven-day lockdown, but an extension saw that end date pushed to Friday.

Half of the territory's population has been fully vaccinated.

I was on the phone hookup at the time and we all thought the same thing. It's bull****

[russellw]

It’s the end of another UK review period. They recorded 490,412 cases between 15-29/8 and 1,824 deaths between 30/8-13/9 for a CMR of 0.372%. That makes 1,930,516 cases over the 60 day review period and 5,668 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.294%. Extrapolated to a full year that would be 11.7M cases and 34,480 deaths at a rate of 66 deaths per 100k of adult population.

To put that into an Australian perspective:
If we had similar CMR and case rates to the UK we'd have about 4M cases and 11,936 deaths per annum well above the 900 deaths in a bad flu year like 2019.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I was on the phone hookup at the time and we all thought the same thing. It's bull****

Looking from a realistic angle, the ACT is the only fully land locked territory in Australia. So being surrounded by NSW, and we all know how well we are doing... with the supply chain etc, the chances of covid 0 were always going to be slim. So yes its not near the covid dense areas in sydney, but still, a lot of the food supply etc comes from the port in Sydney, so whilst the poulation density in the ACT is lower then most of Sydney, it only takes a couple of infected but undetected delivery drivers to stuff it up for the people.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

It’s the end of another UK review period. They recorded 490,412 cases between 15-29/8 and 1,824 deaths between 30/8-13/9 for a CMR of 0.372%. That makes 1,930,516 cases over the 60 day review period and 5,668 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.294%. Extrapolated to a full year that would be 11.7M cases and 34,480 deaths at a rate of 66 deaths per 100k of adult population.

To put that into an Australian perspective:
If we had similar CMR and case rates to the UK we'd have about 4M cases and 11,936 deaths per annum well above the 900 deaths in a bad flu year like 2019.

A good perspective Russ. Interesting that a bad flu year barely makes the news. Smoking kills 24000 a year in Australia (according to the Cancer Council)

UK was about 60% fully vacced at that time, so IF they (and we) get to 80% plus you can probably halve that number, to an extrapolated 5-6000 per year (and that is just the first few years, I am sure we will gain more immunity/updated and better vacc's as time goes on) I think society will decide that is ok, and if not then smoking will have to be banned too!

[russellw]

Probably worth noting that in the last 15 day period reviewed, they were already over their target vaccination rate and the CMR actually rose above the average at 0.372% but if I look at it realistically, I should probably ignore the first period of my review (cases from 1-15/7) as they were still in lockdown and it should be used as comparative data only.

If I rework the numbers for the 45 days since 'freedom' day then I get:

Cases: 1,450,325
Deaths: 4,678
CMR: 0.323%

Full Year Extrapolation:
Cases: 11.76M
Deaths: 37,944

Australian Context (annualised):
Cases: 4M
Deaths: 13,134

[naddis01]

Well the covid situation is still bubbling along out here in the Far West. Broken Hill is up to 40 cases but hasn't it really affected the small town of Wilcannia. They are up to 127 cases which I believe is more than 1 in 5 people. It just goes to show how easily it spreads in these small communities.

[FairmontGS]

Hi Russ,

Can you please explain the change from yesterday to today's trendline insofar as yesterday's trendline was "barricade the bunker door":



As opposed to today's trend, "Plague? What plague?":



TIA.

[Citroënbender]

I was discussing this with a friend. We decided that Covid had finally succumbed to Australian apathy, and couldn’t be bothered infecting so many people anymore.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by tweeked

A good perspective Russ. Interesting that a bad flu year barely makes the news. Smoking kills 24000 a year in Australia (according to the Cancer Council)

UK was about 60% fully vacced at that time, so IF they (and we) get to 80% plus you can probably halve that number, to an extrapolated 5-6000 per year (and that is just the first few years, I am sure we will gain more immunity/updated and better vacc's as time goes on) I think society will decide that is ok, and if not then smoking will have to be banned too!

Trans fats and sugar or diet kill more people than tobacco does globally!
I have smoked tobacco products since early teens, my left lung was removed 10 weeks ago, my lung was pink!
It was not full of tar like you see on the TV ads, and the tax on tobacco products add exponentially to Australia's GDP, if we stopped smoking it would probably affect the world economy negatively.

I believe that cancer causes cancer, smoking exacerbates overall health as does the exhaust gas from cars, planes, trucks and motorcycle's plus industry!



Cheers Billy

[b0son]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I believe that cancer causes cancer, smoking exacerbates overall health

if that were true, there wouldnt be a positive correlation between smoking and cancer. both smokers and non-smokers would get cancer at the same rate, just the outcomes would be different.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I have smoked tobacco products since early teens, my left lung was removed 10 weeks ago, my lung was pink!
\

You're lung was removed? Damn that sounds serious. No issues related to smoking I guess?

[T3rminator]

We had a positive case in one of our Sydney sites . Person was isolated after positive test, and everyone on site that day also has been tested. Fortunately all came back negative, which is rather surprising given its an indoor factory / warehouse type environment, and a lot of common touch points on machinery. Anyway, we've been trying to contact NSW Health for further guidance, but can't even get through, as in the phone has been engaged for the past 48 hours. Crazy.

Someone here mentioned a similar experience with Vic Health, but it seems both NSW and Vic are struggling. Surely lines can be diverted to health departments in other states for assistance? It can't be THAT different from state to state regarding workplace practices?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Ben73

You're lung was removed? Damn that sounds serious. No issues related to smoking I guess?

Asbestos, welding fumes( confined space ) my lung cancers were not smoking related, same cancer women get in their breast glands that metatasises to the lung, smoking certainly hurts your lungs but so do lots of other chemicals!


Cheers Billy

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by b0son

if that were true, there wouldnt be a positive correlation between smoking and cancer. both smokers and non-smokers would get cancer at the same rate, just the outcomes would be different.

Non smokers get lung cancer, not sure what percentile, but non smoking confined space welders would be on par with non welding smokers, that's for COPD, etc.
But I just believe smokers get belted from pillar to post, not trans fat eating folk with major health issues, or sugary soft drink guzzlers, its all harmful, but that's life, but I am supposed to start chemo next Tuesday, and Monday I go in for an education seminar about my treatment, I will find out all the correlations between smokers and non smokers, if it's available!

I will post it here on AFF, but it will be biased towards the Government to justify tobacco tax, I do not trust this Government one bit, but to always blame one group is not justified considering the damage alcohol does to non smoking drinkers, I really don't know what else to say??


Cheers Billy