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#14881 | |||
Former BTIKD
![]() Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sunny Downtown Wagga Wagga. NSW.
Posts: 53,197
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Quote:
__________________
Dying at your job is natures way of saying that you're in the wrong line of work.
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#14883 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,537
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Quote:
It took Vic DHHS about 5 days to respond to our company requests for guidance and answers which is now an ongoing consultation. Cheers |
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#14884 | ||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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Mehh...might as well just suck it up, its headed your way.
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Please press the "Like" button if you enjoy my posts. (It's the red triangle with exclamation mark on the left) |
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#14885 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
I've found that my hay-fever has not been quite as bad this year. Whilst there could be many factors influencing that, I wonder if wearing a mask whilst outside walking has reduced my exposure to the airborne pollens? Might have to continue wearing a mask during future spring months!
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14886 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,850
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I’ve been more physically active than the last year. Plus in and out of old roof cavities beating on stuff, so the allergen sources are right up there. The mask pushes moustache hairs up my nose as well.
![]() Great to hear others aren’t having it so bad. |
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#14887 | ||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,537
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Most likely it will or I might have had it already without knowing it since I'm living in a hot spot area but you should realise it will eventually come your way to Tassie; make sure you are vaccinated while you got time.
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#14888 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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I always wondered if you were real or maybe a computer virus...
![]() But your real, just goes to show that it takes " bipeds " of all kinds to make this world turn!.... ![]() That's a compliment by the way, enjoy it while it's at the top of the thread! Cheers Billy ![]() |
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#14889 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Saw this opinion article today and thought it did a pretty good job of summarising recent discussions in this thread about opening our country back up and the challenges associated with the options available.
Some of the data that is presented in here would need some validation, as I'm not sure of the accuracy of some of it, but nevertheless it seems pretty balanced to me. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...down/100461128 This heading sums it up for me: No option is particularly good
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14890 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
The trend line you're seeing is based upon the full data set, so the second chart (yesterday's trend) shows an extra day of data, which is continuing to decrease in magnitude. Therefore the trend line is going to predict what is happening based upon that continuing trend. Also note that the two trends are also based on different level order polynomials; the trend line from Monday is based on a third order polynomial and yesterday's a fourth order. My take on that is the 3rd order doesn't as easily allow for a peak and decrease in the data as well as a fourth order. We can clearly see that the actual data is starting to flatten out the curve; I'd hazard a guess that the third order polynomial will continue to rise based on that revised data set as opposed to the 4th order which will cater for the easing of numbers. I suspect Russ has moved to a 4th order poly to better 'fit' the trendline to the actual data. Remember the prediction of the trendline is limited to the capability of the equation used to best fit the actual data. This page here provides you an idea as to what level capabilities each order poly has in best modelling the actual data set. Hope that makes some sense?
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14891 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 5,045
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#14892 | ||||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,014
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Quote:
Quote:
The reason to change is that a polynomial trend works best with 'spiky' trends or where there are clearly defined 'shift's in the pattern - thus, as there is no such thing as first order, a pattern with one shift is 2nd order, 2 shifts is 3rd order etc. etc. NSW now has it's 3rd shift which is why the change to 4th order because the 3rd order trend would continue to rise even though the raw data isn't. Here is NSW from yesterday using 3rd and 4th order polynomial trends: ![]() ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#14893 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 7,692
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part of the contract under which she does business - she does have the option of banning him and that option depends on how he behaves next time and that will determine what happens next
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I reserve the right to arm bears
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#14894 | ||||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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Quote:
Quote:
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#14895 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,850
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Curfew is now lifted for NSW LGAs of concern. This is a great improvement.
On a personal level, it looks like my elderly cousin may soon die in Greater Melbourne. I’m a bit over these Covid-safe funerals, whether streamed or IRL. In another time we would have buried him at sea. Also good to see: An article on the ABC discussing the reality that achieving 80%x2 Covid vaccination of eligible people, isn’t the simple, meander-down-the-road exercise of incremental gains, the government seemed to be implying. Last edited by Citroënbender; 15-09-2021 at 12:55 PM. |
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#14896 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canberra
Posts: 13,374
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Yeah not a good idea to use Covid as a sickie excuse. I'm assuming they asked for test results and that's where it came undone
![]() https://www.news.com.au/national/jam...d9263315d7caf5 |
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#14897 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Heads-up for anyone in Ballarat:
The ABC understands the city of greater Ballarat will enter lockdown tonight It's due to an increase in COVID cases, senior state government sources have told the ABC. Daniel Andrews will hold a press conference shortly.
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14898 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,850
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Won’t Jack91 be thrilled.
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#14899 | |||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,420
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Quote:
Got the call booking cancelled, restaurant closed for deep cleaning. Apparently a positive delivery driver had been through.
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power |
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#14900 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,014
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 14th 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 1,587 new cases for Australia and 4 deaths so the CMR is 1.432%. 17 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.681%. The UK had a lower 26,251 cases yesterday and higher 185 deaths for a CMR of 1.850%. A lower 141,970 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,477 deaths sees CMR at 1.614%. Other notable points: Europe passes 57M cases; Asia passes 73M cases; New Caledonia (327); Bermuda (412); Suriname (649); and Nicaragua (675); ... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. Greece and Georgia move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Venezuela and Cabo Verde drop below.
__________________
Observatio Facta Rotae
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#14901 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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And some good news for you, Trev:
But the government has announced the lockdown in Shepparton will be lifted from tonight after three days of no new cases.
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14902 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,014
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NSW/VIC
NSW records 1,261 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9910 (from 0.9769) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve. ![]() VIC records 423 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases slightly to 1.1123 (from 1.1135) while the actual line is back below the predictive trend line. ![]()
__________________
Observatio Facta Rotae
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#14903 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Anyone else finding the myriad of businesses and organisations openly supporting the covid vaccination program as a "way to get back to a normal life" a little grating, especially when, in all likelihood, all those businesses and organisations really care about is they stand to make more money once people are back out doing things (and spending their money) as they normally would?
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14904 | |||
Virtuous Bogan (TM)
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TAS
Posts: 27,559
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Quote:
I think any additional focus on getting things up and running can only help..everyone is over it.
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#14905 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
I do wonder though, how 'over it' people will be when we open up again, hospitals fill with cases, reducing capacity for other medical services and reducing the number of medical staff available, and things like elective surgeries are impacted. When someone wants to see a doctor or get some medical advice for something that is annoying them or impacting upon their quality of life, and they can't that appointment for months, will they be over that too? And that's without even taking into account the number of people who will pass away from the disease and the circle of influence on relatives and friends.
__________________
Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#14906 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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Quote:
How long will it take for them to rail against the potential vaccine passport to gain entry, when business doesn't return to pre-covid levels cause groups no longer want to have group bookings cause 1 or 2 aren't vaxxed. Not to mention the people who no longer want to go out in crowded areas due to covid. I don't see business returning to pre-covid levels for quite a while. They will soon change their tune when it hurts their hip pocket. That's where the rapid testing needs to come in, so people aren't being discriminated against if they aren't/can't be vaxxed. It's kind of ironic that a double vaxxed person who might have covid, and doesn't know, is ok to enter a venue, but an un-vaxxed person who is covid free isn't. |
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#14907 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,014
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Quote:
The highlight for me: The Grattan Institute has suggested lifting lockdowns only when 80 per cent of the entire population has been double vaccinated (not 70-80 per cent of people aged 16+ as the NSW and national plans envisage, which amounts to 56-64 per cent of the population). Grattan believes its plan would cost 2,000-3,000 lives per year; a cost it believes the public would accept. I've been saying that for awhile and their 2-3k number aligns pretty much with what we'd see if we could mirror the Israeli experience where my models show about 2,868 deaths in the first year. At the UK level (90% of 16+ but only 66.67% of whole population) it wouldn't be sustainable as I said yesterday, with my model showing something like 13k deaths in the first year. The message is simple from my POV. Open too early and accept the high case and mortality numbers or wait until vaccination levels are higher although I don't see that we could ever reach 80% of whole population when we have some 4M (or 15%) of the population under 12 years of age so that would mean that only 5% of the 12+ age group would be able to not get vaccinated.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#14908 | |||
NOT A TOYOTA :/
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eastern Suburbs, Melb
Posts: 2,554
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Quote:
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06 Land Managed to remain in the v8 fraternity |
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#14909 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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#14910 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,537
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Quote:
My daughter is a youth care worker and since covid her working conditions has changed dramatically with regards to client contact. |
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