Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread - Page 5

Paxton · 08-08-2011, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JACK250

Funnily enough last time things were looking bad the government stimulus money went towards exactly that...

There is no stimulus money to be thrown around this time. Australia is in deeper trouble than Swan, or Gillard would have us believe. If there is no money globally, building will slow, lessening the need on our greatest export (and money spinner). I don't think our economy, weakened by a high Australian Dollar, is going to have the same buoyancy that it did with the $900 cheques, the Memorial School Halls, or the subsidised House Fires.

I'm worried. My portfolio was never for the short term, but I'm exposed to some losses at the moment, and I just hope that my spare cash can cover me should either of us lose our jobs. The house won't pay itself off...

Day-mow · 08-08-2011, 06:22 PM

everything's pretty tight at the moment. as a landscaper we have squat all work because people are to scared to spend their money at the moment.
and i understand that totally

WMD351 · 08-08-2011, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTP owner

If you are poor - you have nothing, right? So how can you get poorer? I think this is one of the stupidest thow-away lines there is.

By going into debt? My post was in response to the question of how can we have record savings and yet be seeing a rise in credit card debt at the same time. You're right, it is just a throwaway line but I wouldn't quite call it one of the stupidest ones there is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Also whats the deal with gold prices? When I was in Grade 3 in 2000 it was like $300 something an ounce, looking the other day it was $1600+ Is a shiny rock which you can't do much with really worth that much?

Australia in 1997 and the UK in 1999 decided (were advised) gold was loosing its relevance as a financial instrument and they wanted to move away from it. The UK sold over half its reserves (almost 400 tonnes) and Australia dumped two thirds (167 tonnes) of ours onto the market. This pushed gold to an 11 year low price.
As it turns out that move may have been a boo boo.
I sometimes wonder where all that cheap gold went...

GTP owner · 08-08-2011, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMD351

By going into debt? My post was in response to the question of how can we have record savings and yet be seeing a rise in credit card debt at the same time. You're right, it is just a throwaway line but I wouldn't quite call it one of the stupidest ones there is.
.

Fair call. To have nothing is still better off than owing more than what you actually have. So you could be poorer, I see your point.

MITCHAY · 08-08-2011, 06:45 PM

All I can say is thank **** I work in the public sector this time around if it hits the fan. Last GFC I was made redundant and was out of a full time job for 11 months. Luckily I still lived at home but soon I won't have that luxury!

superyob · 08-08-2011, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTP owner

Depression no, recession yes. So people may have to let their second or third car go, and their internet connection, and their mobile phone, and austar subscription, and magazine subscriptions, and eating at nice restuarants, and buying everything new, or not replacing their huge plasma TV when it blows up....so what? It's just things. It is highly unlikely we will struggle to put food on the table. People really don't know how lucky we are. Those that complain and beg for food handouts rarely give up their fags, grog and pokies. Maybe we all need a reality check to focus on living within our means. A recession will be good for us.

A very good observation. I totally agree.

**buggerlugs** · 08-08-2011, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Not GFC1 or GFC2. We are heading for a depression. Don't worry about house prices. Worry about putting food on the table people!

You're probly missing your "Are house prices going to crash" thread a bit to much me thinks..............

**Professor Farnsworth** · 08-08-2011, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobman

Future isn't very bright - yet whenever you say that to people, they say you're just being negative and it doesn't affect them.

Well, the 1990s was most definitely the best recent decade as life was great then.

sums it up nicely really. I've been watching the decline for quite a long time now and i can say those who are 'only' tipping a recession may be in for a shock. Depression is the more likely outcome here. Also those implying that cash is the way to go, i'd disagree there too. Gold and silver would be my choice. Cash is rather worthless when countries are forced to devalue their currencies overnight. There won't be any warning for it either. You won't be seeing treasurers globally giving news conferences announcing the depression to start may 1st 2012 etc. You will know on the morning news that it has happened already.

EDIT: i will say though the severity of the 'recession' will depend on how the US acts, as at the moment they've purely raised the debt ceiling and selected a committee to make 'hard decisions' on how to cut costs. There are bad and slightly less bad ways for it all to happen.

dave289 · 08-08-2011, 08:02 PM

There is a hell of a lot riding on whats happens to the us stock market overnight. We will know by 6.00 am tommorow morning .

This is I believe the first time the US has had their credit rating downgraded (but I dont know this as fact ) and come midnight tonight we will see how their markets take to this .

If the US markets get a major thumping overnight ,which is looking highly possible , it could make fridays loses look measley , there is a lot more riding on what happens tonight that ever before .

Conclusion : not looking good.

Scott · 08-08-2011, 08:03 PM

I started closing my meager positions back in June when I got a grip on the August deadline and closed the last on Friday morning, really just in time to lose the gains I had made the week before so for that I am thankful.

I really don't know how far down the market will stretch, I think the reaction has been fairly mild so far so perhaps it won't reach the lows of 2009.... the bungy platform is a lot closer to the ground this time though..

gtfpv · 08-08-2011, 08:43 PM

IT'S ONLY FEAR . we export nothing except raw materials . this is americas recession , i'm amazed australia takes a hit .
its the ones with no debts , and the ones who have a job with a mortgage that will come out miles in front here . interest rates will drop quickly . our shares are going out in sympathy , as for the rest of the world thats a different story . we are sitting on the fence sympathising with others .
house prices will drop because they always were going to , it had to happen .
aside from that , i think the only recession will be from people who freese spending , because of hyperthetical international fears .

CJR09 · 08-08-2011, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott

I started closing my meager positions back in June when I got a grip on the August deadline and closed the last on Friday morning, really just in time to lose the gains I had made the week before so for that I am thankful.

I really don't know how far down the market will stretch, I think the reaction has been fairly mild so far so perhaps it won't reach the lows of 2009.... the bungy platform is a lot closer to the ground this time though..

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave289

There is a hell of a lot riding on whats happens to the us stock market overnight. We will know by 6.00 am tommorow morning .

This is I believe the first time the US has had their credit rating downgraded (but I dont know this as fact ) and come midnight tonight we will see how their markets take to this .

If the US markets get a major thumping overnight ,which is looking highly possible , it could make fridays loses look measley , there is a lot more riding on what happens tonight that ever before .

Conclusion : not looking good.

talk of maybe another downgrade - futures anrnt looking too bad though

http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.co...DOWFUTURES.htm

G6E Turbo 2 · 08-08-2011, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcnews

People talking up depression and the negative everything attitude that Abbott and his minions are talking about will be the main thing that drives this country into recession, they will take us into one even if we shouldn't be in one with their scare tactics. They don't care, only power is important to them, same as all modern day politicians, it is not about what is good for the country, only what is good for them.

That is THE most truthful sensible thing written herein

geckoGT · 08-08-2011, 09:13 PM

This thread is very close to breaking AFF T&C in respect to subjects that are political in nature, see below for the definition under the T&C's.

Quote:

In short, the following things are not permitted:

1. Posts about or containing references to: religion, race, politics, sensitive or controversial subjects.

I see the value in the topic of this thread as there has been some good information regarding the economics of it all and I am sure many have learnt something new (I have).

Having said that, posts that delve too far from the economics and into the politics of it will not be allowed and will result in editing, alerts or warnings as appropriate.

Lets all keep the T&C's in our minds when posting and enjoy a good discussion, thanks.

Scott · 08-08-2011, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJR09

talk of maybe another downgrade - futures anrnt looking too bad though

http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.co...DOWFUTURES.htm

Looks worse now than it did half an hour ago. It never ceased to amaze me that the yanks had seemingly never priced this risk in. I guess those who knew best just kept the P&D going. Different story here though.

Zero_PSI · 08-08-2011, 10:22 PM

If the US economy crashed maybe we could become an actual independant country...Would be nice.

JackoTJK · 08-08-2011, 10:26 PM

Ok, so I'm an agricultural mechanic. Last year was the first decent crop after a 10 year drought. In the past 6 months we have sold 5 new headers ($600,000 each) 22 tractors (avg $125,000 each) and assorted goodies like spreaders and augers. Keep in mind we are in a town numbering 7000 in the shire and have 9 people in the entire shop including sparies! Plus the average rainfall is back to being decent so this year looks to be AWESOME and sheep prices are up giving farmers MORE to spend! Factor in that, what, 70% of Australia's income is from Primary Industries including mining, and Asia are our MAIN interest, then tell me when this recession is meant to begin again?

sorry if this is getting too economic, just too much doom and gloom when Ag is up :(

Mr Hardware · 08-08-2011, 10:48 PM

This is really good
not only am i buying shares for ridiculously cheap prices, my super is too!

LOOKS GOOD BOYS!

dave289 · 08-08-2011, 10:56 PM

Dont know if any of you plan on seeing how the US market fares tonight , theres a link below, dont know what it will show as I have never visited the site before ,but the market opens in about aan hour , you will note at the top that the only thing powering was mastercard , credit card spending must be good then.

If you look to the bottom left of the page it shows market segments over the last three months , and that looks shocking to say the least.

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/

Auslandau · 08-08-2011, 11:02 PM

Price of oil has had a massive hit ....... cheaper petrol???????

Kryton · 08-08-2011, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auslandau

Price of oil has had a massive hit ....... cheaper petrol???????

hahahahahahahahahah

Funniest thing ive heard today.
More likely it will go up because of some lame reason like the ocean is more wet than yesterday.

Paxton · 08-08-2011, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auslandau

Price of oil has had a massive hit ....... cheaper petrol???????

As long as the Dollar stays buoyant. If the dollar starts heading south, it will cancel out most of Oils falls.

Auslandau · 08-08-2011, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davway

hahahahahahahahahah

Funniest thing ive heard today.
More likely it will go up because of some lame reason like the ocean is more wet than yesterday.

Yes .... was very cynical there. Pump goes up when crude goes up .... never in reverse but I always try to look at 1/2 full.

Resurrection · 08-08-2011, 11:20 PM

Today we were informed our department will be shedding 6 out of 15 people at the end of this year. So I could be out of work next year. Yup, things are getting worse........

Scott · 08-08-2011, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auslandau

I always try to look at 1/2 full.

Me too, but I can only afford to see 1/4 :(

mickyyyy · 08-08-2011, 11:34 PM

I say yes to another recession but the question I do ask is, will it be like the last and do the same things in regards to property and shares?

z80 · 08-08-2011, 11:38 PM

In 1989 the share market correction was the catalyst for other forms of investment to slide...most notable was property, some 12 months later.

I remember the missus saying we should buy that 400k property reduced from 1.2m in Toorak...we were all too scared...