Australia housing bubble

[zilo]

It's such a scarey environment out there.....golly gosh...the CBA announced interest rates would climb by a stratospheric 1.25% in twelve months or so.

There will be blood on the streets...LOL......I guess if you budgetted for 2% it's a show stopper....

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by zilo

It's such a scarey environment out there.....golly gosh...the CBA announced interest rates would climb by a stratospheric 1.25% in twelve months or so.

There will be blood on the streets...LOL......I guess if you budgetted for 2% it's a show stopper....

Banks won't want to cause a run on mum and dad lenders. That would be catastrophic for everyone, including the banks. The rate rises will be managed, it may squeeze a few people who have been borrowing on the edge.

Of course, unforseen external market forces could always change everything, but hopefully we've learnt from the past and have enough measures in place.

[T3rminator]

At the start of pandemic, a banker mate of mine said that the average borrower had an 18 month cushion before they would run into default. If that is true, any sudden rate rises should be manageable, and allow people to get out in an orderly fashion. Hopeful thinking.

[MITCHAY]

Last weekend one of the houses in my mum's street went up for auction. So naturally she was curious what it would go for since it's basically the same plan as hers. A bit nicer inside but not much different.

It went for the better part of $800k! To put this in perspective she paid $40k back in the early 80's and it is a suburb which by Canberra's standards has traditionally been a bit rough.

People are flocking to the big lots down south here it seems. Her lot is bigger. She said her heart was pumping after the hammer!

[Citroënbender]

Where (which provider) are NSW people here going for title searches? Just need a couple of one-offs to find possible mortgagors without being on the radar.

[Mulva]

What seems weird to me is, area I am looking to buy in Adelaide's north east, I could get an "acceptable" 30 year old house with either 3 or 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms for about $580-$620k but then need to put about $50-$70k into it to redo the old bathrooms and kitchens etc...so looking at mid to high $600k's to have a freshened up but still fundamentally 30 year old house with 30 year old pluming and still slightly smaller rooms as was the norm back in 80s and 90s.

Or I could spend low to mid $400k's to buy one of the ****tier houses in same area, still on large block but only 1 bathroom, carport instead of garage and not much going for it - knock it down, spend $220-$250k building a brand new 5 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 living areas house, cost would be about high $600ks to $700k.

I don't understand why more wouldn't spend the extra $20-$50k to end up with a much better, bigger modern house with brand new plumbing and electrical etc.

Is it the cost and inconvenience of having to rent while building? Because what you end up with versus what you spend, building you'd end up with a house that you could easily sell for more than what it cost you; buying establishing you end up with something that is worth what you paid (or in current market you probably pay slightly overs but within months that should/could be the market price).

What am I missing?

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Where (which provider) are NSW people here going for title searches? Just need a couple of one-offs to find possible mortgagors without being on the radar.

You used to be able to do it online but last time I tried I needed to visit land titles office in the city to get ownership details of a property.

If you know a real estate agent they can look it up on their RP Data account.

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[Peter B - CV8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Where (which provider) are NSW people here going for title searches? Just need a couple of one-offs to find possible mortgagors without being on the radar.

A private individual can't order LTO searches any more - you need to be a registered LTO "agent". I'd suggest a local solicitor/conveyancer might be the best avenue.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Mulva

What seems weird to me is, area I am looking to buy in Adelaide's north east, I could get an "acceptable" 30 year old house with either 3 or 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms for about $580-$620k but then need to put about $50-$70k into it to redo the old bathrooms and kitchens etc...so looking at mid to high $600k's to have a freshened up but still fundamentally 30 year old house with 30 year old pluming and still slightly smaller rooms as was the norm back in 80s and 90s.

Or I could spend low to mid $400k's to buy one of the ****tier houses in same area, still on large block but only 1 bathroom, carport instead of garage and not much going for it - knock it down, spend $220-$250k building a brand new 5 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 living areas house, cost would be about high $600ks to $700k.

I don't understand why more wouldn't spend the extra $20-$50k to end up with a much better, bigger modern house with brand new plumbing and electrical etc.

Is it the cost and inconvenience of having to rent while building? Because what you end up with versus what you spend, building you'd end up with a house that you could easily sell for more than what it cost you; buying establishing you end up with something that is worth what you paid (or in current market you probably pay slightly overs but within months that should/could be the market price).

What am I missing?

Right now there is a huge supply issue with building materials.

I would think that to build a decent 5br 2 bath 2 living area house you would need at least $320-380k once you include landscaping, driveway and all the usual extras you add to the base price of the house.



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[Mulva]

Had a Statemans Homes 'Adelaide Alfresco Mark II' with the walk-in pantry and shower niche options priced up at just over $220k including floor coverings and all appliances like ovens and cooktops and dishwashers and reverse cycle ducted etc, with $25k allowance for footings. Inside would just be up for window coverings; outside definitely up for landscaping and driveway etc (but comes with metre paths and no need to pave an outdoor entertaining area as the Alfresco under main roof would be good enough for our needs.

So yeah, probably more looking at or just over $700k, but the end result would be worth so much more than if I spent same money on one of the established houses in same area.

Have heard re the shortage of materials from all builders - apparently big shortage of wood for frames that will not be ending anytime soon due deal signed to supply America with wood before our local market. This has seen a lot of people switch to steel-frame builders, and 2 builders said they expect steel shortage in 2 to 3 months at which point Govco will panic as they reckon 80% of the domestic home building industry could nearly grind to a halt (including all the tradies)

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Peter B - CV8

A private individual can't order LTO searches any more - you need to be a registered LTO "agent". I'd suggest a local solicitor/conveyancer might be the best avenue.

I know it changed substantially, found out the hard way (inconvenienced) - but several agencies offer a service with search results like this sample:

I’d assume the title search result they want $35-odd to furnish, includes mortagor details. Is this assumption now wrong in NSW?

[Citroënbender]

Et…

Originally Posted by Mulva

Have heard re the shortage of materials from all builders - apparently big shortage of wood for frames that will not be ending anytime soon due deal signed to supply America with wood before our local market. This has seen a lot of people switch to steel-frame builders, and 2 builders said they expect steel shortage in 2 to 3 months at which point Govco will panic as they reckon 80% of the domestic home building industry could nearly grind to a halt (including all the tradies)

I can almost guarantee that every skerrick of every house demolished around my area (and it is the urban planning Wild West; see my other thread) all materials will be crushed to a powder or fibres - nil recycling as a whole.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I know it changed substantially, found out the hard way (inconvenienced) - but several agencies offer a service with search results like this sample:

image

I’d assume the title search result they want $35-odd to furnish, includes mortagor details. Is this assumption now wrong in NSW?

Around 2 years ago it was $14 over the counter in the Land titles office in the city.

I can't remember what the printout showed but I was only after ownership details.

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[Citroënbender]

Exactly. Back a few years it was cheap and easy.

I just don’t want to show my cards to anyone yet, prefer to do homework by myself. Have been generally disappointed by ethics of agents.

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Around 2 years ago it was $14 over the counter in the Land titles office in the city.

I can't remember what the printout showed but I was only after ownership details.

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[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Exactly. Back a few years it was cheap and easy.

I just don’t want to show my cards to anyone yet, prefer to do homework by myself. Have been generally disappointed by ethics of agents.

Just looked it up. Still possible, they bumped up the price to $15 now.

https://www.nswlrs.com.au/Fees

[Trendseeker]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Is it the cost and inconvenience of having to rent while building? Because what you end up with versus what you spend, building you'd end up with a house that you could easily sell for more than what it cost you; buying establishing you end up with something that is worth what you paid (or in current market you probably pay slightly overs but within months that should/could be the market price).

What am I missing?

You’re right. A lot of people don’t want to rent, would rather move straight into another house and don’t want to deal with the hassles and small risks of rebuilding.

The difference in cost of major renovations on an older house and demolishing and building a new one is not a great deal more.

We did it, quite a few years ago now, and it’s worth the hassle.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Have been generally disappointed by ethics of agents.

They rarely fail to disappoint.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by Trendseeker

...The difference in cost of major renovations on an older house and demolishing and building a new one is not a great deal more.

This really does seem to be the case - particularly if going further than gut and refurb of kitchens and bathrooms or removing/moving a few internal walls etc...if bumping out (or particularly if trying to build up) it quickly approaches or exceeds cost to rebuild. Have also been told it is generally quicker or similar time to build than do major renno (in times when there are no shortages of materials and trades).

And that is based on quotes for best case scenario - they are quick to add "but costs could blow out as we don't know what the plumbing and electrical is like or what other surprises are lurking in the walls from the original builder in the 70s or 80s".

We're looking at everything right now - established homes that are move-in ready, established homes that need a reno, established homes that need reno and build on/up, established homes that could be knocked down and rebuilt, and vacant blocks of land.

Still looking at one block but is scary...block slopes away from the road, first half of the block is level, back half has been cut away so there is 3m drop to rear of block. Plan is build single level at front that then drops to 2 story at the rear where the 3m cut-out is, but I'm seriously spooked by footing and retaining costs - waiting on a builder to look at it to get an indicative price, which I am then going to double their quote for footings and retaining as have heard so many horror stories. Fairly certain what they quote will see me walk way from this one.

[snap0964]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Where (which provider) are NSW people here going for title searches? Just need a couple of one-offs to find possible mortgagors without being on the radar.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’d assume the title search result they want $35-odd to furnish, includes mortagor details. Is this assumption now wrong in NSW?

Try Citec confirm CB - Infotrack are expensive, citec are $17.44, with a downloadable certificate of title pdf.
https://www.confirm.com.au/
Just need the lot and DP of course.
https://www.confirm.com.au/products/land/

Amazing what you find - I still had a mortgage registered that was paid out 20yrs ago.
Let me know if you need help - I have a citec acct.

[Trendseeker]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Still looking at one block but is scary...block slopes away from the road.

Yes, the costs will increase significantly if the block requires more work than the standard slab construction included in the project home price. Anything you save on the price for a block with a substantial drop will be spent on the extra planning and building costs.

[Citroënbender]

Thanks Snap!

[snap0964]

Let us know how you get on.
If you don't want to gin around creating an acct(you need to add $$$ to your acct for the searches), I can do the searches for you, and just reimburse me.

Do it soon of course, prices rise 01Jul.

[T3rminator]

There was a report on the other day, showing how auctions go through the roof after every lock down. Agents were saying its due to FOMO during lock down. If that is true, expect to see another spike soon!

Have noticed a few brokers upgrading their valuation on stocks that are heavily linked to interest rates, could be a sign of things to come.

Also everyone should shop around more often on their lenders! Just completed a refinance and moved to a new lender. Went through a broker and the entire process was absolutely seamless....why haven't I been doing this more often?!?! Saved 0.7% on a couple of loans and over 1% on another. Been with the previous lender for over 15 years.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

There was a report on the other day, showing how auctions go through the roof after every lock down. Agents were saying its due to FOMO during lock down. If that is true, expect to see another spike soon!

Have noticed a few brokers upgrading their valuation on stocks that are heavily linked to interest rates, could be a sign of things to come.

Also everyone should shop around more often on their lenders! Just completed a refinance and moved to a new lender. Went through a broker and the entire process was absolutely seamless....why haven't I been doing this more often?!?! Saved 0.7% on a couple of loans and over 1% on another. Been with the previous lender for over 15 years.

I wish the c**t of an industry would crash already.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I wish the c**t of an industry would crash already.

[QUOTE=Charliewool]

Originally Posted by leesa

Not encouraging violence or "how to man up"

Regardless of topic, Can’t resist a crack,eh Germaine?

I feel that way too sometimes. it wont be long though

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I wish the c**t of an industry would crash already.

Be careful what you wish for. A crash will have flow on effect, and likely also impact people who don't hold property.

Or are you trying to get in Poyal?

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I wish the c**t of an industry would crash already.

fairly broad and **** comment

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

fairly broad and **** comment

Learning from the best

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Be careful what you wish for. A crash will have flow on effect, and likely also impact people who don't hold property.

Or are you trying to get in Poyal?

Know full well what it means, real estate is used to mask a lot of underhanded write offs and fake wealth in this country...the one thing that we should be giving a "fair go" for is a roof over peoples heads.

Im all ready to go, have been for years, but to transient to bother to buy something as its not worth the hassle..but been waiting for the "adjustment" which even Covid didnt deliver...yet..the industry is so heavily backed by Govco its almost bulletproof; thats my issue with it.

[Citroënbender]

Agreed; I think government of nearly any stripe here would defend real estate investment with their dying breaths. Certainly east coast including Tasmania.

[lumen8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Agreed; I think government of nearly any stripe here would defend real estate investment with their dying breaths. Certainly east coast including Tasmania.

And by extension defending the banks I suppose... home loans are their bread and butter are they not?

I think its in a nearly 100 year old hansard somewhere.. protect the banks at all costs.

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Agreed; I think government of nearly any stripe here would defend real estate investment with their dying breaths. Certainly east coast including Tasmania.

Yeah there's no way the government are going to let real estate be subject to natural fluctuations. The manufacturing industry in this country has gone, the housing industry is like a big ol' profitable vehicle and they will drive it as long as they can.

I think I said it earlier but incase I didn't, the country is lazy and needs to stop exploiting the limited resource of a basic need like shelter.

Manufacturing needs to come back. For that to happen, housing needs to a relevant price so that even factory workers can buy a house.

Farming needs to stay in the country and feed the australian population first; export the EXCESS if need be but a lot of our best quality stuff if sent overseas and aussies get what's left. The farmers don't mind putting their hands out to the australian people during times of drought though.

Housing needs to be a closed system, no foreign investment and no government manipulation. We will never have australian jobs being enough to buy australian housing when people from other countries can buy up real estate and leave it empty. They're just contributing to limiting the supply.
How can the industry ever find equilibrium when there is so much leverage from other forces? It never will and the government like it that way because it's incredibly profitable.