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#15061 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Quote:
We've been tracking pretty much with the national average on 1st dose. I'm confident we'll hit the 70%, fair to assume everyone will go for their 2nd, and sincerely hope gov has stockpiled to guarantee supply of 2nd. Moderna is a 4 week interval so that should really speed up the fully vaccinated rate If there is enough supply, and no hesitancy. Interesting to note that the issue on number of people "stuck" overseas has gone quiet all of a sudden. How many have changed their minds? Who would want to come back and be confined to curfews, 10km travel limits, no leisure, sport or retail?
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. ![]() |
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#15062 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
What i find more interesting is that we will pass Poland tomorrow on the doses per 100,000 population measure (according to covidlive) https://covidlive.com.au/world/vaccinations This is one of the places we "borrowed" Pfizer from, so they must have a lot more hesitancy than us.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#15063 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Quote:
Personally, if I was due for AZ now, I would be switching to Moderna. Just so I can achieve 2nd dose sooner without efficacy compromise.
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. ![]() |
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#15064 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,015
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The lockdown for the two commuter corridors (Geelong and Mitchell) doesn't surprise me as the number of tradies in those two areas who were travelling into metro areas for construction (and other supposedly essential) work is high as are the case numbers being seen in those areas.
Not quite sure what caused the Surf Coast one but an extrapolation based on the traffic volumes seen on the Westgate in the two days before regional lockdowns ended might lead some to conclude that certain self-serving metropolitan residents escaped the metro areas and headed down to the Surf Coast.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#15065 | |||
Where to next??
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 8,893
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Quote:
I'm sure there is a ton of AZ and enough Pfizer floating around to do the second doses so lets assume that we still have a bunch of people getting what is available on the shelf the first half of this week then the Moderna shot will only be 5-10% of the total population. I think once we hit high 70's to low 80's vaccination rates will slow quite dramatically. While we are averaging around 5% a week now I think after 80% that rate will drop to 1.5-2% per week. I would be surprised if we hit 90%. I'm wondering if there are people actually holding out for Moderna? In regards to people stuck overseas. The intake numbers are very low now and I'm wondering if tickets are still stupid expensive for those that do get a seat? I think once we hit the 80% needed for international borders they will remove inbound restrictions and this will allow carriers to offer reasonably priced inbound seats for all returning Australians. My rationale for this is that flying multiple planes here near empty to collect out bounders makes no money and causes out bound tickets to be more costly and if we assume that an average OS holiday for an Australian may be 10 days to 2 weeks then while they are away the inbound are in the quarantine facilities which will be vacated once the first wave of travellers return. That's assuming they will still have some sort of quarantine policy for returning travellers. It will also pose another problem for those still stuck OS. Our first OS trips will be between countries we have a travel bubble agreement with meaning that should people stuck OS want to return home as soon as borders open they will need to first get to one of the travel bubble cities to get on a plane. Which may also have their own quarantine requirements. See what happens I guess. Time will tell.
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___________________________ I've been around the world a couple of times or maybe more....... |
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#15066 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Opinion piece from a working paramedic in Syd. Some interesting conundrum there on how to handle kids and parents.
Quote:
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. ![]() |
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#15067 | ||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,420
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My daughter got her first pfizer jab at Jeffs shed yesterday. She was in the "priority" queue as she is a VCE student.
Plenty there just walking in, it was very well set up. She is booked for her second dose in 3 weeks. So they are speeding things up by reducing the time between jabs, but it also reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine. I hope that does not come back to bite us.
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power Last edited by Work Horse; 20-09-2021 at 11:12 AM. |
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#15068 | |||
Where to next??
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 8,893
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Quote:
That's what I was told when I got mine a few months ago.
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___________________________ I've been around the world a couple of times or maybe more....... |
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#15069 | ||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,420
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My mistake, they recommend 3-6 weeks so it is actually fine.
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power |
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#15070 | ||
Bolt Nerd
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ojochal, Costa Rica (Pura Vida!)
Posts: 14,616
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Ain’t that the truth Amigo!
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Current vehicles.. Yamaha Rhino UTV, SWB 4L TJ Jeep, and boring Lhd RAV4 Bionic BF F6... UPDATE: Replaced by Shiro White 370z 7A Roadster. SOLD Workhack: FG Silhouette XR50 Turbo ute (11.63@127.44mph) SOLD 2 wheels.. 2015 103ci HD Wideglide.. SOLD SOLD THE LOT, Voted with our feet and relocated to COSTA RICA for some Pura Vida! (Ex Blood Orange #023 FPV Pursuit owner ![]() |
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#15071 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,923
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#15073 | |||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Quote:
![]() So while the " elite few" were dining big at the Brownlow, normal WA citizens were more worried about a hospital bed if taken ill, the system here is broken, the rank and file are treated as non citizens, determined by income or age, its a disgrace all round! When covid hits Perth I hope I'm not around, I sincerely mean that ![]() Cheers Billy ![]() |
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#15074 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,015
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 19th 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 1,562 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 1.357%. 22 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.665%. The UK had 29,007 cases yesterday and 56 deaths for a CMR of 1.820%. 68,268 new cases in the USA yesterday and 856 deaths sees CMR at 1.613%. Other notable points: (weekend reporting) Global cases pass 229M, the last 1M in 2 days; Global deaths pass 4.7M, the last 50k in 6 days; Asia passes 74M cases; Only - Syria (190) ... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Iran and Ghana drop below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#15075 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,015
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NSW/VIC
NSW records 936 cases in the current period - the first day under 1k cases in more than three weeks. The 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9573 (from 0.9807) while the actual line continues below the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line has a downward curve. Based on this model, NSW could well be back below 200 cases / day in about 10 days time. ![]() VIC records 567 cases in the current period (another high for this outbreak) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0714 (from 1.0613) while the actual line moves back toward the predictive trend line. Based on this model, Victoria might well pass the 1k case mark in the next 10 days. ![]() Victoria is at day 70 with 8,353 cases recorded this outbreak compared to 11,502 for the 2020 Victorian outbreak and 15,004 at the same point in NSW this year.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 20-09-2021 at 02:11 PM. |
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#15076 | |||||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
This Yale Medicine article states two shots, 21 days apart. Interesting details in the Yale document (updated September 17, so pretty current) regarding efficacy and the need for a booster shot with the Pfizer (also known under the names of Pfizer-BioNTech, BNT162b2 or Comirnaty): Quote:
I also note the following in the WHO article: Quote:
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#15077 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,015
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Quote:
The best guide for how much the reduction for Pfizer is suggests that the difference between 3 weeks and 6 weeks is only a couple of percentage points and maximum protection (~96%) is 14 days after the 2nd shot. However, we do know that AZ is significantly less effective when the second dose is taken at 6 (60%) rather than 12 (81%) weeks and then 66% and 86% 14 days after that 2nd shot. It's why I'm waiting the full 12 weeks even if that does mean I'm waiting until the 3rd week of November.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#15078 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,851
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Re the NSW graph, it looks to have not carried over the most current new case count, only showing through yesterday’s numbers.
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#15079 | ||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Yes, good to see the case rate is decreasing.
On another note, I thought Gladys indicated last week or the week before that she wouldn't be attending/holding press conferences on case numbers any longer as she had more important things to do with her time. A cynic might suggest we're still seeing her at the pressers because the numbers are decreasing? ![]()
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#15080 | ||
Moderator
![]() Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 7,940
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It probably comes as no surprise at all, but Victoria's population shrinks as the pandemic exodus hits.
Victoria is now home to 43,000 fewer people than at the start of the pandemic, making it the only state or territory to record a drop in population since coronavirus hit Australia. The state shrank by enough people to fill the Victorian border city of Wodonga in the 12 months to March on Australian Bureau of Statistics data. With the international border also closed, offshore migration also failed to make up for those leaving the state. ![]() |
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#15081 | ||
Ford screwed the Falcon
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 7,061
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Come on CFMEU - shut down the construction industry! This is what we need to combat the tyrants in the Victorian parliament.
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Falcon: 1960 - 2016 My cars Current ride 2016 FG X XR6 - 6 speed manual Previous rides 2009 FG XR6 - 6 speed auto 2006 BF MkII XT ESP - 6 speed auto 2003 BA XT V8 - 5 speed manual 1999 AU Forte - 5 speed manual 1997 EL Fairmont - 4 speed auto 1990 EAII Fairmont Ghia - 4 speed auto |
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#15082 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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Quote:
Even when we reach the vax targets he still wants strong control over who can do what, where and when. Business's going to the wall all over the place. |
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#15083 | ||
Virtuous Bogan (TM)
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TAS
Posts: 27,559
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Wonder when the last time (if ever) we had people leaving a state?
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#15084 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,015
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I've updated the NSW graph for today.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#15085 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,371
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#15086 | |||
Donating Member
![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Heading thru Hell (Corner)
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Labels are for jars, not for people. Life is a journey, not a destination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Daily: 2013 FGII EcoLPi in Winter White Play: 2015 FG X XR8 in Emperor Show' N Shine thread Gone, but not forgotten: 2015 SZII petrol Titanium Territory in Emperor |
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#15087 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,851
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#15088 | |||
I am Groot
![]() Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Burnett Heads, Qld
Posts: 6,840
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Quote:
Construction workers gather outside the CFMEU office https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e84a939b0fbfff
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.. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Those were the days when the cars were cars, they weren't built out of an Ikea pack like they are now and clothed in plastic; they were real cars." John Bowe |
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#15089 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
Old Australians move to QLD. (And so will I soon, I love it up there) New Australians migrate from overseas to the less tropical and humid, larger cities with bigger education hubs of Melbourne and a lesser extent Sydney. International migrants much prefer Melbourne and due to cost a lesser extent Sydney. Once the borders reopen this will go straight back to normal.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#15090 | ||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Sorry Go Further, somehow I edited your quote instead of my comment - I wondered where it went!!
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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