Australia housing bubble

[T3rminator]

Well, each way albo has come out and said they will not go with their anti negative gearing policy at the upcoming election. Any rate rise will be absorbed through neg gearing for investors.

[T3rminator]

NAB tips Melb and Syd prices to keep going....

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...26-p58cyq.html


I do wonder if we will end up following UK's scheme in the near future to help first home owners. I recall they had a scheme where first home owners can co-buy properties with the government. Basically gov owns a %, you own the rest. Not sure how that works when it comes to renovations or rent paid to gov. I think you also had to give gov first option to buy if you decide to sell at any stage.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

NAB tips Melb and Syd prices to keep going....

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...26-p58cyq.html


I do wonder if we will end up following UK's scheme in the near future to help first home owners. I recall they had a scheme where first home owners can co-buy properties with the government. Basically gov owns a %, you own the rest. Not sure how that works when it comes to renovations or rent paid to gov. I think you also had to give gov first option to buy if you decide to sell at any stage.

Yes in Perth they have a Keystart loan, the home is owned with the government!
It's seems genuinely wanting to help low income singles and families.


Chilly Beers

[Charliewool]

As someone who’s not up to date with how Australian realestate is travelling, I found this series interesting… (I believe it’s reasonably current?)
https://www.pedestrian.tv/entertainm...interview/amp/
Watched the whole series over the weekend and was amazed at the 10, 15, 30 million dollar properties changing hands! It’s like another planet…

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

As someone who’s not up to date with how Australian realestate is travelling, I found this series interesting… (I believe it’s reasonably current?)
https://www.pedestrian.tv/entertainm...interview/amp/
Watched the whole series over the weekend and was amazed at the 10, 15, 30 million dollar properties changing hands! It’s like another planet…

It is another planet, called Planet Greed, and its satellite's Selfish and Self entered, and worse of all its all controlled by Planet Ego!


Cheers Willy

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

As someone who’s not up to date with how Australian realestate is travelling, I found this series interesting… (I believe it’s reasonably current?)
https://www.pedestrian.tv/entertainm...interview/amp/
Watched the whole series over the weekend and was amazed at the 10, 15, 30 million dollar properties changing hands! It’s like another planet…

Damn Charlie, that trailer has me interested....how many seasons and episodes are there? Wish you had shared his 2 weeks ago when we started lock down!

I'm guessing at those price range, its no longer an "investment" or "I really like this to be my house". Guessing it would be more like a ****ing contest "I have this but you don't".

[shedcoupe]

If the guvvy is printing money to hand out to muppets waving fistfuls of cash at auctions to drive an insane market (Hobart’s projected rise is 23 % this year), then why do I bother paying truckloads of tax ?
Can’t the guvvy print money to hand out to me to pay the guvvy ?
Seems like an idea that’s just as sensible.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Damn Charlie, that trailer has me interested....how many seasons and episodes are there? Wish you had shared his 2 weeks ago when we started lock down!

I'm guessing at those price range, its no longer an "investment" or "I really like this to be my house". Guessing it would be more like a ****ing contest "I have this but you don't".

Only aired here last Friday, and suggest similar timing in Aus? (On Amazon here) 6 episodes
And, yep… massive egos, massive mines bigger than yours… (and that’s just the Lambo drivin agents!)

[xkxlxm]

After losing the unlosable election last time, Labor is so poo-scared heading to the next election that they are jettisoning any policy that has the remotest possibility of providing a scare campaign for the Liberals.

In the 1950s the Libs were concerned about social cohesion and promoted home ownership; it probably had something to do with the 'communist threat'. Someone who managed to buy their own home - to live in - was more likely to feel that he/she had a stake in society and less likely to be attracted to 'dangerous' ideologies.

It's a different story today. The Howard/Costello 50% cut to capital gains did nothing to make housing more affordable (to say nothing about the foregone revenue). Negative gearing continues on the so-called 'investment' in a second, fifth, tenth, twentieth or whatever home. Frydenberg claims that rising house prices are good for the economy.

People aren't investing in extra homes; they are speculating. If a speculator beats a would-be home owner at an auction on an existing house, he/she isn't providing a roof over someone's head. The roof was already there and the wanna-be home owner might have been living there if it wasn't for the tax breaks provided to the speculator.

It's dog-eat-dog.

[Syndrome]

All bubbles end and when this one does it will be a doozey!

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

All bubbles end and when this one does it will be a doozey!

So what are the signs? As I feel its been 10 years in the waiting at least...

[xkxlxm]

On the radio this morning: house prices in Ararat (Vic) have gone up by 26% in the last year.

In the 1980s house prices in Melbourne went up-up-up until 1990-91. I have a vague memory from 1990-91 of seeing one house selling for less than it got a year or two before. I don't remember that prices crashed but they did stagnate until about 1996-97 when they started to go up again. If interest rates ever start to increase, how much of a rise will be needed to burst the current bubble? Would there be a crash or just prices stagnating?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

So what are the signs? As I feel its been 10 years in the waiting at least...

Irrational exuberance. We are not quite there yet.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

On the radio this morning: house prices in Ararat (Vic) have gone up by 26% in the last year.

In the 1980s house prices in Melbourne went up-up-up until 1990-91. I have a vague memory from 1990-91 of seeing one house selling for less than it got a year or two before. I don't remember that prices crashed but they did stagnate until about 1996-97 when they started to go up again. If interest rates ever start to increase, how much of a rise will be needed to burst the current bubble? Would there be a crash or just prices stagnating?

House prices have gone up by 26% because they make em 26% bigger than before


Cheers Willy

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Polyal

So what are the signs? As I feel its been 10 years in the waiting at least...

Polyal 10yrs ?
I recall when the GFC back in late 07 it was all doom and gloom coming.....
I've been waiting since then - and the comments wait its coming

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Polyal 10yrs ?
I recall when the GFC back in late 07 it was all doom and gloom coming.....
I've been waiting since then - and the comments wait its coming

The KRudd $900 kicker saved us

Just thinking out loud, a crash or correction will most likely be accompanied with an interest rate rise and possibly tightening of lending from the banks? So those waiting in the wings will probably still not find it easy to enter the market.

We need more affordable housing, and people need to be less choosey. I remember, about 5 years ago, there were plenty of little gems 15-20kms outside of the city in the "less desirable" areas, for under $500k. These were decent properties with decent land. People avoided them, I'm guessing, because of the names of the suburbs. Today, I punch in the same attributes into realestate.com.au and I get ZERO hits....nothing. Even increasing the $ or distance search there are very little hits.

[slowsnake]

I distinctly remember watching my $80,000.00 of various shares I purchased between January 2008 and June 2008 increase in value, by September 2008 they decreased by 30%....
2007 seems a year early, maybe in America but I know what I lost, and as we come into 2009 it was a 45% loss on my outlay....silly Billy
I was getting 7% in the bank on long term 2 year investment, I broke it early and got 1.8% interest...but 2008 not 2007?


Cheers Willy

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The KRudd $900 kicker saved us

Just thinking out loud, a crash or correction will most likely be accompanied with an interest rate rise and possibly tightening of lending from the banks? So those waiting in the wings will probably still not find it easy to enter the market.

We need more affordable housing, and people need to be less choosey. I remember, about 5 years ago, there were plenty of little gems 15-20kms outside of the city in the "less desirable" areas, for under $500k. These were decent properties with decent land. People avoided them, I'm guessing, because of the names of the suburbs. Today, I punch in the same attributes into realestate.com.au and I get ZERO hits....nothing. Even increasing the $ or distance search there are very little hits.

Personally I dont think entry into the markets has changed much in relative terms. Starting packages etc are pretty steady if you want to move out.

Australia needs to upgrade the satellite cities/towns with better transport and services to get people out.

I would have no need or want to be near a CBD if more companies moved out.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Personally I dont think entry into the markets has changed much in relative terms. Starting packages etc are pretty steady if you want to move out.

Australia needs to upgrade the satellite cities/towns with better transport and services to get people out.

I would have no need or want to be near a CBD if more companies moved out.

Actually, my search must have stuffed up, cos I just looked again and there are still some very affordable town houses 10-15kms from CBD, particularly the north and north eastern subs. This is in Melb obviously. Plenty out there if people are willing to sacrifice the suburb names. I understand its not easy if you have kids and you want to get them into a particular school zone.

[FTE217]

Not sure what people expect to come in the future.....
Its not going to get easier, just harder and harder for there is always someone who's willing to pay more and have more re bidding for a house/flat whatever.

A re set may occur but thats no gaurantee those on the cusp/first home buyer get their prize.
As mentioned, depending where you grew up, in a average Burb probably is out of the question today ie Sydney/Melb cbd for those inclined.

Yes people need to be willing to re locate IF they want their gold ticket, house as it once was.
Otherwise its apartment living at housing price in the cbd in alot of case's.
Sad but it is what it is, times move on.

T3, lending has become harder since covid commenced you may know ?
The royal commision on the Banking/Super/Financial Services sorted that out.
Having a bit of property re our business we re financed one of our warehouse's.
In a sound position financially, the new hoops upon hoops going through that was very time consuming and frustrating and as mentioned we're not a high risk period.
Took months and months.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FTE217

T3, lending has become harder since covid commenced you may know ?
The royal commision on the Banking/Super/Financial Services sorted that out.
Having a bit of property re our business we re financed one of our warehouse's.
In a sound position financially, the new hoops upon hoops going through that was very time consuming and frustrating and as mentioned we're not a high risk period.
Took months and months.

I wasn't aware of that, could be different for business. As mentioned below, I went through a refinance and it went through seamlessly, but I did it through a broker mate, and I think he had someone inside, from start to finish it took 3 weeks.

The bank did go through my statements with a fine tooth comb, trying to pick up pay day loans and short term lenders like Zip and Afterpay, and any excessive cash outs. They are also on the look out for frequent deposits to betting accounts, and cash outs at venues linked to pokies. Which could be a problem if you have a big night out at a pub near by.

I did hear Frydo wanted to lighten the "responsible lending" rules, but I don't think it got up.

[FTE217]

same here re broker/and accountancy.
Have them close have used the guys for years we both know each other very well (any decent broker should have good close contacts with the institutions they go through), granted it was during hectic covid issues last year, maybe the timing but it is far more stingent now our broker kept saying.
Maybe your figure wasn't that large, your business.

Not diff for business's alone, I had my eldest son/daughter inlaw deal with them for they are "I'm waiting to buy" % right now, well since last year.
Scared, to jump in or wait, the correction is coming lol......
Broker has gone through similar with them, especially being 1st home buyers, they also wonder what the Gov is finally gonna do re support and the changes considered but yet nothing.

So I'm close to either spectrum atm, its exciting tbh.
My wife and I are considering to sell as well since early this year, will we won't we.

[xkxlxm]

In 2007 the share market peaked in November, I think. It had been going up and up for several years before that. So it dropped a bit in late 2007 but then really dropped in March/April 2008 (I think) and then probably more that year and also in 2009 (?).

[I just remember those details; I actually know SFA about shares and the share market.]

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

In 2007 the share market peaked in November, I think. It had been going up and up for several years before that. So it dropped a bit in late 2007 but then really dropped in March/April 2008 (I think) and then probably more that year and also in 2009 (?).

[I just remember those details; I actually know SFA about shares and the share market.]

[Citroënbender]

This kind of thing really irritates me. Too tight to even do a title search and greet the owner by name.

[sr71]

^ I hate that too CB. Time to post Thiru and Suzies’s phone number on social media. Maybe on a Pornhub Bollywood Celebrity Sex recording, with potential for a billion views every 24 hours.
They could be dobbed in, attending the next Anti-vax protest....Sounds like a plan!

[blueoval]

wow, people are getting desperate to get in before stupid offers over reserve are put on the table.

While I don't blame them, I wouldn't be doing any deal without an agent or someone you can trust who can arrange and mediate the legal side of things.

[Citroënbender]

Not selling anyway. Asking $12M and no less; nobody will pay that right now, so it’s all good. I’d want to effectively swap a quarter acre of suburbia for a small acreage near Bowral plus a cottage near Berry, and have a slush fund for helicopter charter - hence the figure.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by blueoval

wow, people are getting desperate to get in before stupid offers over reserve are put on the table.

While I don't blame them, I wouldn't be doing any deal without an agent or someone you can trust who can arrange and mediate the legal side of things.

Nah- that smacks of these vultures that go around throwing bait out on properties- and waiting for some sucker to bite on the bait of cash and no agent fees etc.

They low ball- 95% odd reject but all they need is that 5% to suck in the bait ball and they reap a tidy windfall.......

[Pis-ton broke]

i got a letter from a housing developer the other day, showing interest to by my acreage and my neighbors' too. in s,w, sydney. but not interested at this time. once the badgerys creek airport is done it will affect prices imo. camden and wollindilly had been dormant for many years, but the last 3,4 years has seen large developments popping up, its insane how fast it all happens.