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23-09-2021, 07:10 PM | #15271 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canberra
Posts: 13,434
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Looking at the ACT data, the rolling average is between 15-20 cases per day. The problem is more people than not are in the community during at least part of their infectious period.
I think the government have finally abandoned the idea of Covid zero and just look to keep it steady until we meet the targets which should be soon. |
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23-09-2021, 07:20 PM | #15272 | |||
Regular Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Canberra region
Posts: 352
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Quote:
Part 6-3 of the Therapeutic Goods Act provides the basis for a uniform system of access controls for goods containing scheduled substances. The scheduling of substances allows restrictions to be placed on the supply of those substances to the public, in the interests of public health and safety, to minimise the risks of poisoning from, and the misuse or abuse of, scheduled substances. |
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24-09-2021, 08:10 AM | #15274 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: nz
Posts: 1,850
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Your a man you should know that
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Fgx xr8 winter white manual, gone but not forgotten 22 mitsubishi outlander XLS PHEV Au11 fairmont Ghia ported gt40p heads ,comp springs and locks Xe 264 cam,custom intake,pacemaker tri y headers 524nm torque 19 Triton GSXR manual |
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24-09-2021, 08:17 AM | #15275 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 22,353
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24-09-2021, 08:24 AM | #15276 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Just watching morning news ABC, they are saying that a protester at the War Memorial protests has tested positive for covid and was taken to hospital?......but not in ICU....
One of the presenters said " get ready for a super spreader event"? Not sure they should of said that Cheers Billy |
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24-09-2021, 08:58 AM | #15277 | ||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,421
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Not at all mate but I think you are missing the point.
What is true in the reporting of these protests, who is doing it and why? Rebel news were there on the scene, they released the 'shocking footage' and continue to run with the line it was an elderly woman. Why no interview with the victim? No follow up story with the family, how their beloved Ganny was attacked on the way to the shops? Rebel news did not follow up on the story because they know full well it is BS. Rebel news could have set it up. You are being lied to mate, you are being stooged.
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power |
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24-09-2021, 09:13 AM | #15278 | |||
Donating Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,799
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Quote:
Probably a set up. Bloke dressed up as a “Gran”, causing trouble, gets called out and stopped by the Police, and the Wacko’s post a video to show their “Conspiracy” about the “Police state”. |
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24-09-2021, 09:43 AM | #15280 | ||
Donating Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,799
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24-09-2021, 10:24 AM | #15281 | |||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 22,353
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Quote:
But it seemed they were simply looking for a vaguely Capitol-like stone structure to climb all over and besmirch - simple aping by simpletons. |
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24-09-2021, 10:30 AM | #15282 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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24-09-2021, 10:34 AM | #15283 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canberra
Posts: 13,434
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We have reached 50+% over over 16 years old population fully vaccinated now.
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24-09-2021, 10:49 AM | #15284 | ||
Donating Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,799
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Surprised he didn’t try to **** on the Officers leg.
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24-09-2021, 11:38 AM | #15285 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 23rd 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 1,813 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 1.297%. 16 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.653%. The UK had 35,764 cases yesterday and 182 deaths for a CMR of 1.795%. 133,671 new cases in the USA yesterday and 3,484 deaths sees CMR at 1.615%. Other notable points: Global cases pass 232M, the last 1M in 2 days; Europe passes 58M cases; The USA passes 700k deaths; Syria (315); Somalia (348); Angola (453); and Singapore (1,504); ... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. Lithuania and Latvia move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Canada drops below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 24-09-2021 at 11:45 AM. |
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24-09-2021, 11:44 AM | #15286 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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NSW/VIC
NSW records 1,044 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9960 (from 0.9881) while the actual line is a bit further above the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve. VIC records 733 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0554 (from 1.0538) while the actual line is now about level with the predictive trend line.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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24-09-2021, 08:00 PM | #15287 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,918
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Just heard that NSW are now looking to recruit doctors and nurses from overseas, and are also trying to convince those retired to come back into the field.
If two of the most populous states can't handle relatively low number or cases, whats going to happen when all states open up and have covid run through the population? 80% vax still means a good 4m or so of the population unvaxed. Say 1% fall ill enough to require hospital, that is still going to be a real strain on the system.
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. |
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25-09-2021, 05:11 AM | #15288 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,874
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Quote:
A former co-worker of mine refuses to get vaxxed and might be looking for a new job or to retire early as a result. It's my understanding that NSW teachers who refuse to get vaxxed may be put on leave without pay. That's a smart idea imho as they then aren't being terminated just financially coerced into doing the right thing. |
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25-09-2021, 08:25 AM | #15289 | |||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Quote:
Always keep some extra tucked away for a rainy day! You can't print money to get out of a hole that was dug by the State or Federal Governments, Morrison is a mouthpiece for others who cant handle their workload, so sad Cheers Billy |
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25-09-2021, 08:26 AM | #15290 | ||
WT GT
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,773
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Sutton: Vics stay home, 'eat cheese' for WAFL GF
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...edgdhp&pc=U531 |
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25-09-2021, 08:44 AM | #15291 | |||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,421
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Quote:
He clearly said, 'eat fancy cheese'!
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power |
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25-09-2021, 09:40 AM | #15292 | ||
Where to next??
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 8,893
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What is going on with NSW's vaccination rates?
Since Thursday every news report and every article states how NSW vaccination rates are going gangbusters and that we are flying forward well above the expected rate. However.... I have been keeping track of rolling NSW averages and the numbers represented on the graphs are showing a slowing to the rates. Our 70% and 80% dates are going backwards at the same time we are being told the total opposite. Thursday 23 @ 12 noon - 70% @ 7th & 80% @ 17th October: Thursday 23 @ 4pm - 70% @ 5th & 80% @ 15th October: Friday 24 @ 9am - 70% @ 6th & 80% @ 16th October: Friday 24 @ 4pm - 70% @ ?th & 80% @ 17th October: Saturday 25 @ 8am - 70% @ 5th & 80% @ 18th October: If we were getting vaccinated as implied wouldn't these dates either stay static or show a gradual decline?? The national rate seems to be updated every day, perhaps the NSW number is going backwards because they didn't update the rates on Friday? See what happens tomorrow and perhaps Monday afternoon. By then any missing data should have been put into the equation.
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___________________________ I've been around the world a couple of times or maybe more....... |
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25-09-2021, 10:36 AM | #15293 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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The issue is simply bad methodology being used to provide the predictive data. The 7 day rolling average of doses is always going to provide 'peaky' data with inconsistency in the end dates.
We see the same in the daily moving average for NSW/VIC and although I smooth it by using a 10 day rolling average it is still a bit peaky. For example, here are the last 10 days daily growth rates for NSW cases: 1.110, 1.071, 0.952, 1.037, 0.814, 0.863, 1.093, 1.012, 1.028 and 0.981 and those translated to 10 day rolling averages that ranged from 1.0119 down to 0.9851 which is why I use polynomial trends to smooth our predictive curves.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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25-09-2021, 11:08 AM | #15294 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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NSW/VIC
NSW records 1,044 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9834 (from 0.9960) while the actual line is a bit further above the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve. VIC records 847 cases in the current period (another record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0732 (from 1.0554) while the actual line is now slightly above the predictive trend line and unless things change for the better, Victoria will see case numbers topping 1,000 early next week.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 25-09-2021 at 01:01 PM. |
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25-09-2021, 11:45 AM | #15295 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 24th 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 1,763 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 1.286%. 9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.652%. The UK had 35,620 cases yesterday and 180 deaths for a CMR of 1.789%. 133,659 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,285 deaths sees CMR at 1.615%. Other notable points: Global deaths pass 4.75M, the last 50k in 5 days; Syria (397); Singapore (1,650); Belarus (1,994); and South Korea (2,433) ... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Georgia and Sri Lanka drop below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 25-09-2021 at 11:59 AM. |
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25-09-2021, 12:52 PM | #15296 | |||
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 7,940
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Quote:
https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/ |
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25-09-2021, 01:00 PM | #15297 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,235
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It was 847 and that's the figure in the graph - it's a typo on my part!
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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25-09-2021, 01:50 PM | #15298 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,657
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Quote:
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25-09-2021, 03:41 PM | #15299 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,918
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Quote:
The road map to the next phase of restrictions being eased in contingent on vax rate. It doesn't mention anything on number of cases. So for a lot of people, especially those vaxxed, they are starting to go do their own thing. And cops are too busy catching the insurrectors. Funny, this morning I was out walking the dog on a section of the yarra trail. There was no one around at that time so I had my mask down. Out of no where two cops showed up, and I thought I was done. Both gave a nod and a "gday" and kept going.
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Rides (past and present) Current: 2004 Ford Falcon 5.4L 3v Barra 220, Manual Past: Mitsubishi Sigma (m), Toyota Seca (m), Toyota Seca SX (m), Toyota Vienta V6 (m), Toyota Soarer 4L v8 (a), BA XR8 ute (m), T3 TE50 (m), BMW Z4 (m) AFF motto - If contrary views trigger, please use ignore button. |
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25-09-2021, 03:41 PM | #15300 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Perth Australia
Posts: 3,618
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Like Paul Hogan said in his on camera interview in the States, I want to go back to Australia, he opened his curtains and pointed outside, the camera followed, he said see all these "nongs" no masks, acting like nothing is wrong?
Well that why I want to live back in Australia, if only he could see the future!......... Cheers Billy |
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