Covid 19 -

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Russ, I think your Y axis scale numbers is wrong on the Vic graph.

Looking at the data on that graph, I think it's an old version. See my post re x-axis, too.

[Citroënbender]

I’m finding it intriguing that relevant data which accrues incrementally, is still being released in blocs. Tallies like vaccination count could surely be also packaged as running counters. NSW today cites vaccination figures to the end of Tuesday - we would be well ahead by this moment (probably 1,5% on the second dose and 0,4% on the first) but everyone is kept in suspense.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Looking at the data on that graph, I think it's an old version. See my post re x-axis, too.

It was an old version as I messed up the date - it's fixed now as you can see from the big upswing in the last data.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Thought I'd share a story about how lax people have become with the lockdown.

My mum lives on her own and has struck up a buddy bubble with another single lady. They have got together and had a coffee together throughout the lockdowns.

My mum's friend's neighbours had organised a get together to celebrate the Grand Final, including inviting their children and families down from Melbourne. The children accepted and were fully planning on coming down to Sale. Not sure if it happened, as I haven't had a chance to catch up with my mum to discuss further.

My mum is not one that follows the rules closely, but she was pretty disappointed with this behaviour.

I see today that Dan Andrews is hinting that this jump in cases has come at a fairly indicative time after Victoria's long weekend, given what they know from interviews over recent days.

If the experience above is any indication as to what happened over the weekend, it's no surprise we're seeing a spike in cases.

This is what happens when you take Captain Lockdowns approach of continually locking down all the time. People are just sick of it and are doing whatever the hell they want.

Time he woke up and stopping following this useless path, as all it is doing is making people not even care about covid anymore. They would rather take their chances catching it than living a life of not being able to do anything. It really is no way to live.

The clown will probably try to lock down harder though.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 324,683 cases in the period to 13/9 and 2,114 deaths between 14-28/9 for a CMR of 0.651% which is higher than the previous 3 fortnights although the case numbers are down 150k over that previous period - balanced out because deaths are actually up.

Thus, in the 60 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 1,775,008 cases and 6,792 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.383% which is higher than the 0.206% CMR of the last fortnight before freedom day.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.

[Citroënbender]

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

I don't think it looks like we will have a choice. SO I think the answer will be not comfortable, but it is the near future.

What I am sure of is that is lockdowns are attempted beyond 80% it will be a different world of civil unrest.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

AH, I brought this up sometime ago when the openning up plans were presented and how people will react once or if we see infections go up up up and deaths increasing.....
Will the people do the reverse and scream out locking down again for eg ????

Its gonna be another curve ball we will face for for us its like putting your first steps on the moon and what will our leaders will do as well.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

We have to be.

We just have to live with it now. It's like any other virus/disease/condition, people are going to die, and it's just accepted as nature being nature.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

Tough question and I would say no one will be comfortable with those figures but again if people want their liberties back then I guess this will be the price we pay.
The economy cannot support these lockdowns indefinitely so it something we going to have to live with, I don't see us going back to lockdowns once we lifted them but do see some restrictions being implemented when the need arises.

[Citroënbender]

If we divide that arbitrary 80/day death rate by population, it would see maybe 12 people per day dying in Greater Sydney. Conversationally, it would likely become unremarkable in many of the cases. Perhaps a challenge is to find that perspective of compassion vs fear.

Aside from that I note the testing rate of Victoria is remaining well below NSW - one has to ask whether at 100K tests/day they might throw up some pretty astonishing case rates.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

According to ABS modelling a person dies in Australia every 3min12s. That's ~400 deaths per day without covid anyway.

I'm not a let it rip person and I think we've done the right thing, but people die regardless of best intentions, planning, health policies and lock downs.

Despite covid in 2020, more people died in 2019 than in 2020
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/pe...australia/2020

Deaths aren't an issue.
The sole health issue is unvaccinated sitting in ICU on vetilators for 2 weeks tying up resources.
When we have a high vaccination rate it will be more or less business as usual with regards to death rate. Get vaxxed or not (if not, stay away from hospital and self treat covid at home).
If we do either the covid strain on the system, or deaths, will hardly be noticed.

E: by far the biggest issue will be my guestimate of at least 50 people per day going to hospital, or doubling the intake from my Perth guess of admissions.
Hospitals can't take that.
Get vaxxed and therefore stay out of hospital, or stay home if unvaxxed and self treat as you wish.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I don't think it looks like we will have a choice. SO I think the answer will be not comfortable, but it is the near future.

What I am sure of is that is lockdowns are attempted beyond 80% it will be a different world of civil unrest.

as long as it is not your close family and someone else's it is OK if they die then?

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

We have to be.

We just have to live with it now. It's like any other virus/disease/condition, people are going to die, and it's just accepted as nature being nature.

as long as it is not your close family and someone else's it is OK if they die then?

[oldel]

No one can stop it. It leaks even with lock downs. Get vaxxed, move on.
I'm grateful that covid doesn't have a high mortality rate and we have vaccines. Imagine if 20-50% or more died and there was no vaccines.

People are going to die, but they already are from other things we can do nothing to prevent as well.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

as long as it is not your close family and someone else's it is OK if they die then?

People die of something. Each one is a tragedy on its own. But you got to be a kid Trevor, are you saying an entire generation needs to miss out on the most special parts of life? How long is long enough then, 3 years? 5.....10?

So I am saying 2 years and the opportunity for those who want vaccination and boosters to get one is enough. People who don't want them, don't get them but don't keep kids locked up because some people want to stick their heads in the sand.

Older people like you AND me should not be so selfish as to not let the young have a life as normal as possible.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Would Australians be comfortable with 75-80 Covid deaths per day, if we pro-rated the UK experience?

While no one would be comfortable with people losing their lives in this way, I think one has to put it into perspective.

Last year according to ABS figures, there were 141,116 deaths in Australia, many of which were also preventable like Covid to some extent.

Take out the 909 deaths from Covid last year, and we have 140,207.

That equates to non-Covid 384 deaths per day.

For the purpose of this exercise if we assume that 80 people will continue to die everyday from Covid, (for a period of time), then that means we would be looking at approximately a daily death increase of 20.8% per day.

Which is a huge increase if you look at it statistically.

(In reality the percentage would be lower, as some of those Covid related deaths would have happened anyway from other causes, especially in our aged population).

It really is a case of the lesser of two evils... Huge restrictions or freedom?

As ScoMo said... We can't live in a cave forever!

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

as long as it is not your close family and someone else's it is OK if they die then?

If the vaccine role out has finished and the deceased has declined the jab on any other reason that isn't medical, backed up by their doctor, not what they have read on facebook, then yes. How many chances and time do we need to give them before everyone else can go back to normal? Surprise surprise the Invermectin and bleach didn't work, get the vaccine or run the risk of death by covid but don't expect any sympathy.

[Work Horse]

Deaths from Covid are unfortunate and the less the better obviously.

Case numbers are some indicator of CMR, but it is not an exact science.

Our health system, the actual number of patients that our; ambulances, hospitals, doctors, nurses and support staff can deal with is the biggest issue I see in the short term.

My uncle is a doctor my sister in law a nurse, they worry about being unable to cope with the number of patients. They talk about the system being near capacity a lot of the time already.

It's all well and good to suggest people have had enough time to get vaccinated (although they probably haven't).

It's all well and good to suggest the economy can not continue like this any longer (although managed correctly it could for a short time).

What about the health system and the burden on all those working in it?

It's as if the argument is either lockdown or let her rip.

That's not the argument, we are trying to strike a balance between; personal freedom, economic 'management' and the very real life and death decisions we may force upon health professionals.

We perhaps have to think about those important people at the pointy end of the health system before ourselves and hope we don't need them.

[Citroënbender]

I should tidy up my numbers slightly - I’m definitely no Russell!

UK population estimated at 68,3M
Australian population estimated at 25,7M

If we take the worst UK fortnight to date since “Freedom Day” (2114 Covid-related deaths) and scale it the corresponding number of deaths for Australia would be 57 per day.

[T3rminator]

Since 1st July, no of new cases in NSW vs VIC - 56,499 vs 16,622. No of deaths 337 vs 41. But lock down hasn't worked? Well, I guess people are free to draw their own conclusion, but one thing the restrictions have done is delayed the big numbers until 70-80% first dosed, and that has to be a good thing.

Would actually be good to know how many of today's cases (or any cases going forward) have been 1st dosed.

With 80% first dose reached, and assuming people take their 2nd within the revised intervals, we are really not far from phase B and C, where things really begin to open up.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I should tidy up my numbers slightly - I’m definitely no Russell!

UK population estimated at 68,3M
Australian population estimated at 25,7M

If we take the worst UK fortnight to date since “Freedom Day” (2114 Covid-related deaths) and scale it the corresponding number of deaths for Australia would be 57 per day.

Well hopefully when we open up we will be in a much better position than UK.

[DJR-351]

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...ontacts_300921

[Metdevil]

We really need to get away from the "Deaths per Day" statistic for how we cope with Covid and start thinking about it from the perspective of "Impact on Healthcare Services".

Sure, 80 deaths per day doesn't sound like much when you compare it to the ~400 per day who die anyway without Covid, but how many of those ~400 require weeks on end in hospital ICUs and HDUs?

Covid is a very slow, drawn-out death, involving weeks in High-Dependency Units, and all of those ~80 deaths per day will go through the same 'Seven Stages of Severe Covid'. That means that if you're expecting to live with ~80 deaths per day, you're expecting a workload of ~560 patients in HDU beds per week, and that's simply not a sustainable model for Healthcare Infrastructure.
It will not take long to over-run HDU capacity and then anyone else without Covid symptoms have a slim chance of nabbing an HDU bed.

Heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, cancer patients, everyone else will become directly impacted by those '80 deaths per day'.

This is why I think it's incredibly myopic to reduce the impact of Covid to a simplified 'deaths per day' statistic, because that's not all that this comes down to.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by tweeked

People die of something. Each one is a tragedy on its own. But you got to be a kid Trevor, are you saying an entire generation needs to miss out on the most special parts of life? How long is long enough then, 3 years? 5.....10?

So I am saying 2 years and the opportunity for those who want vaccination and boosters to get one is enough. People who don't want them, don't get them but don't keep kids locked up because some people want to stick their heads in the sand.

Older people like you AND me should not be so selfish as to not let the young have a life as normal as possible.

Fellas if I recall right Trevor has the wife and daughter with immune probs from memory.
Now I understand his POV there hence the as long as it’s not close family.
Hope I’m not being mistaken or too forward apologies if so.

Yes we can’t lock the kids up and it’s that catch22 damned you do damned you don’t.
We need to move on and hopefully without a lot of fall out and sorrows but I’m afraid so.
I’m more upset our leaders have dragged us all along with so much bs and lack of better guidance and efficiency - even opening is a joke not passing on law on shop/business entry but put it on us the business people to manage.
So wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[slowsnake]

If it was Ebola then we would have a problem, but its not Ebola, no where near it, so a few people die from covid, is it really that big a deal, really that big a problem?
The health system in WA, Perth in particular is a National disgrace, all this surplus billions, for what, build a Stadium, what so the AFL can reap a big billion dollar profit, how about the State that hosts gets the cash, not a big percentage to Victoria after due costs, but maybe 50/50 after costs, use that to shore up our failing health system, not the bank accounts of the big end of town!

They have enough, throw some decent cash back to the poor 90% on lower incomes, Mark McGowan last year gave every household family or single, working or not $600 credit into their Synergy Power account, why not a few million of the disgraceful $40 million, or was it billion, to the host state to upgrade health and welfare!

It's not hard is it, why does the AFL need all that money, it's ok oif you like AFL, but most folk hate the game, I would sooner the profit of the "peoples game" is spent on the people, infrastructure that allowed it, but the powers that be decide for us, wether footy, cricket, soccer or any sport, and the same folk decide on when, where and how our internal borders and international borders open up, its all about the mighty dollar, I bet you never see a Politician in a public hospital ED, or bed for that matter!

Death is death, and living is for the living, that's all good, but it's the bit I between that seems to be the problem, not the death statistics!


Cheers BillyP

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Fellas if I recall right Trevor has the wife and daughter with immune probs from memory.
Now I understand his POV there hence the as long as it’s not close family.
Hope I’m not being mistaken or too forward apologies if so.

Yes we can’t lock the kids up and it’s that catch22 damned you do damned you don’t.
We need to move on and hopefully without a lot of fall out and sorrows but I’m afraid so.
I’m more upset our leaders have dragged us all along with so much bs and lack of better guidance and efficiency - even opening is a joke not passing on law on shop/business entry but put it on us the business people to manage.
So wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well put. I suppose I was reacting to the "as long as it is not your close family and someone else's it is OK if they die then?" I did not anywhere in my comment say it was ok.

What I did say was that I was uncomfortable with the fact that we will probably have to accept the likely mortality rate, as there really is no other option that is better for society overall.

We cannot lock everyone up for years, we may have to hide away those with immune issues, but you cannot take away an entire generations childhood to protect a minority, as harsh as that sounds. Yes, I am willing to risk my health so that my kids can have their next birthday, that they can meet a girl and go to the movies. Otherwise, what is it all for?

And those that are at risk through no fault of their own have my best wishes. Those that don't believe and think it is a load of rubbish, have my support that it is their choice. But they also bear the responsibility of that choice.

[buggerlugs]

I got my first shot of Moderna today. I reckon if the media stopped showing shots of a dirty great needle going in arms all the time it wouldn't freak so many people out. Young bloke going in after me was freaking out re the needle............

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

I got my first shot of Moderna today. I reckon if the media stopped showing shots of a dirty great needle going in arms all the time it wouldn't freak so many people out. Young bloke going in after me was freaking out re the needle............

Same here, my wife was freaking out as soon as she heard 'intramuscular' (she's had some bad experiences with previous IM jabs). Has to have been perhaps the most painless jab I've ever had.
It's administered by a very fine needle. Also, a lot of people see the images on the news or whatever and see that the needle seems to be inserted very deep. These are retractable needles, they're not being fully inserted, the needle just retracts into the syringe after use for safe handling and disposal after use.
(Not all clinics use retractable needles, but they are a thing, so if you see it on TV or on the internet, don't freak out).

Don't know if anyone has had a DTaP recently (Diphtheria and Tetanus vaccine) but it's like those, and they're barely noticeable.

[ford71V8]

My nurse also made a point to say that half of whats in the needle is saline.
Im sure "half" is not actually half but it did make me wonder why she said anything