Covid 19 -

[PooDog]

Looks like the sh#ts hitting the fan in NZ after the longest lockdown of our largest city theres a break out in Raglan and Kawhia a couple of little surfy towns on the west coast and Karapiro (close to Cambridge) rumour has it....gang members doing drug deals

So that will be easy to contain

[Citroënbender]

Sorry to see more big case numbers for Victoria, I hope it turns the corner soon. Good on them for prompt disclosure of the statistics, not saving the data as a para-political asset for press conferences.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Well, the new NSW Premier is certainly showing he's prepared to make changes early in his term.

The interesting one for me is the rumoured changes to mask wearing requirements in the workplace. That has already attracted some mixed responses, especially from health professionals!

I guess we'll need to wait to get more details on that one.

[XR Martin]

Noticed the other day Dan Andrews is still blaming NSW for all their problems, I wonder what the count is up to now? Must be in the hundreds.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Well, the new NSW Premier is certainly showing he's prepared to make changes early in his term.

The interesting one for me is the rumoured changes to mask wearing requirements in the workplace. That has already attracted some mixed responses, especially from health professionals!

I guess we'll need to wait to get more details on that one.

Can't see an issue with it when 80-90% is reached. 70% may be a bit early. This is the only reason why I wouldn't want to go back into the office. Our work is already planning for back to office working later on in the year, but if this rule remains, I shall refuse.

[GO FURTHER]

Vic records second highest daily tally of 1638 cases.
That puts us back above the predictive trend.

[slowsnake]

So the Children's Cancer Ward in Victoria has been invaded by a possible covid contact visitor!...and the parents of some can't go near their sick kids, give me a break, how does that happen, and straight off Ch 2's morning live news!

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Well, the new NSW Premier is certainly showing he's prepared to make changes early in his term.

The interesting one for me is the rumoured changes to mask wearing requirements in the workplace. That has already attracted some mixed responses, especially from health professionals!

I guess we'll need to wait to get more details on that one.

My wife tells me he was questioned as to the whereabouts of Dr Chant

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

So the Children's Cancer Ward in Victoria has been invaded by a possible covid contact visitor!...and the parents of some can't go near their sick kids, give me a break, how does that happen, and straight off Ch 2's morning live news!

that is the BIG problem with DELTA, people can be infectious and not have symptoms

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

My wife tells me he was questioned as to the whereabouts of Dr Chant

It’s borderline political comment but I feel concern about the significant changes (per statements by the NSW Premier today) about to impact on Sydney. It feels like a huge shift from a consensus-driven narrative of relative caution, to the relentless imprimatur of an idealogue. If there is overreach and diagnosed cases explode, it will be so much harder to rein in.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

My wife tells me he was questioned as to the whereabouts of Dr Chant

That he was, today he decided to front and centre with own team it seems.
I suppose wishing to stamp his foot print without the medical team.
No big deal imo....

Here's some brief on the subject :
Mr Perrottet said he met “for some time” with NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant and Health Minister Brad Hazzard yesterday and had “a great relationship” with the state’s most senior health official.

When a reporter asked Mr Perrottet why a representative was not present given it is a health crisis, the new premier replied: “Well, it’s also an economic crisis as well.

“We’re the elected officials,” he said, justifying this morning’s all-minister press conference line-up.

Asked if the ministry’s public health team approved of the doubling of caps household gatherings, weddings and funerals as of next week from what was initially announced, Mr Hazzard said “of course” they did.

“We wouldn’t be doing anything if it wasn’t [approved],” he said.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

It’s borderline political comment but I feel concern about the significant changes (per statements by the NSW Premier today) about to impact on Sydney. It feels like a huge shift from a consensus-driven narrative of relative caution, to the relentless imprimatur of an idealogue. If there is overreach and diagnosed cases explode, it will be so much harder to rein in.

well CB I've expressed the concerns of what may occur once opening long before But the light at the end of the tunnel has to move ahead.
Living with it, ok vax's are up, restrictions have been tweaked as we've seen but in the big picture its up to the individual right ?
How careful you are, keep your pratcies up, I know our family will whereas others will be more liberal.
Their risk, I expect more so the millineals.
Oct 25 on I'm not a fan of making face masks optional in office buildings for eg.
I work in no office building but my small business office we employ 7/10 people and our directive is maintaining to wear masks for sometime yet.
We're distanced well but I'm not taking any chances, only one left not vaxxed yet, and if he doesn't soon its up to him, either your in or I'm afraid your out.

On another point for all, a question ?
Are you welcoming family into your house who are non vaxxed ?
What about friends ?

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 587 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9741 (from 0.9570) while the actual line remains level with the predictive trend line and based on the 3rd order polynomial, that trend line has a downward curve.



VIC records 1,638 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0920 (from 1.839) while the actual line is slightly above the predictive trend.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

that is the BIG problem with DELTA, people can be infectious and not have symptoms

Trev, if I was going to visit someone in a cancer ward child or adult I would be well aware where I was, and, take every precaution under the sun to protect the immune deficient kiddies from any germs, or diseases I may or may not be carrying, even a sniffle would keep me away!
Surely there are protocols in place for visitors, especially in this covid climate, I'm gobsmacked, I really am!

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by FTE217

That he was, today he decided to front and centre with own team it seems.
I suppose wishing to stamp his foot print without the medical team.
No big deal imo....

Here's some brief on the subject :
Mr Perrottet said he met “for some time” with NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant and Health Minister Brad Hazzard yesterday and had “a great relationship” with the state’s most senior health official.

When a reporter asked Mr Perrottet why a representative was not present given it is a health crisis, the new premier replied: “Well, it’s also an economic crisis as well.

“We’re the elected officials,” he said, justifying this morning’s all-minister press conference line-up.

Asked if the ministry’s public health team approved of the doubling of caps household gatherings, weddings and funerals as of next week from what was initially announced, Mr Hazzard said “of course” they did.

“We wouldn’t be doing anything if it wasn’t [approved],” he said.

I believe that NSW is different from Victoria & QLD in that the CHO has a significant role due to emergency provisions but in NSW the CHO is for advice only. Hazzard has the power

[slowsnake]

All Australian politicians, State or Federal are right out of their depth, non upon taking their "oath of office" would ever of expected to have to actually deal with anything other than the day to day affairs of office!

But Covid-19 poked it's nose in and changed all that, now we get to separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, they are all drowning in something that is entirely out of their league, some can handle the pressure and most can't, but they hang in not to be useful to the community or society as a whole, but to keep their cushy jobs, with an absolute minimum of input!

We have only a handful of hundreds willing to make any statements to the media lest they screw up and lose their place, so they are quiet like field mice, all hoping it will just go away, all back checking social media accounts just hoping they have not mentioned something in the past, anything that may turn around and bite them on the ****!

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by russellw

A friend asked me the other day (which I thought was a reasonable question), as to why the daily case numbers always seem to frequently trend in a "zig-zag" pattern.

Why up and down, if Delta is so infectious, and not just straight upwards?

High case numbers one day, lower the next day, then back up again, etc.

I thought of a few possible explanations which may or may not be correct;

1. Daily test numbers vary each day.

2. Certain days like weekends, show lower numbers, because people go and get tested less than weekdays maybe?

3. Once a person is infected, they may not show symptoms in the first few days.

4. If a Covid positive person infects another person, again, it may take days for them to realise symptoms and or get tested.

5. Test results take longer on some days to establish, because of staff levels or workloads.

Obviously, large public gatherings (like protests) can cause higher spikes, but that may not fully account for the daily spikes weeks after those events.

What are everyone's thoughts? ... Open for discussion.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT October 6th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

2,026 new cases for Australia and 22 deaths so the CMR is 1.170%.

42 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.607%.

The UK had 38,675 cases yesterday and 143 deaths for a CMR of 1.715%.

121,126 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,264 deaths sees CMR at 1.618%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 237M, the last 1M in 2 days;
The UK passes 8M cases;

Singapore (3,577)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Israel and Cuba drop below.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by FTE217

...

On another point for all, a question ?
Are you welcoming family into your house who are non vaxxed ?
What about friends ?

Good question.

Will it be socially acceptable to ask if you are vaccinated? Will it be like asking what you earn? Will it break up families? Will it cause friendships, possibly long-term friendships, to end?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by PG2

Good question.

Will it be socially acceptable to ask if you are vaccinated? Will it be like asking what you earn? Will it break up families? Will it cause friendships, possibly long-term friendships, to end?

That's a loaded question!...
As in 12 gauge or .410.......

[russellw]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

A friend asked me the other day (which I thought was a reasonable question), as to why the daily case numbers always seem to frequently trend in a "zig-zag" pattern.

I'm not sure that there are any explanations besides the ones you suggested. Certainly weekends do change the testing and case numbers a bit. If anything, the NSW data has been even spikier and there have been some big percentage gains and losses in a single day throughout.

Originally Posted by FTE217

On another point for all, a question ?
Are you welcoming family into your house who are non vaxxed ?
What about friends ?

Short answer is no we won't. With one high risk person in the household and both of us over 60, if anyone who regularly visits (and that's not many) wants to be unvaccinated that's fine but we aren't taking the risk of them exposing us even when we are fully vaccinated. It's a smaller risk at that point but frankly not worth taking.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by PG2

Good question.

Will it be socially acceptable to ask if you are vaccinated? Will it be like asking what you earn? Will it break up families? Will it cause friendships, possibly long-term friendships, to end?

Interesting question.

In my business, which involves going into people's homes, customers are ringing up our office to book appointments (for after lockdown).

Many are now requesting that they will only allow fully vaccinated staff or contractors from our company into their homes. And these requests are increasing each day.

While our business has not mandated that we are all vaccinated, and are pro-choice, they have told us, that obviously, due to "market forces" we will get less work if we are not vaccinated.

So they have requested that if we are fully vaccinated, that we give them a copy of our vaccination certificate as proof, and send only those that are vaccinated out to clients who have specifically requested only vaccinated staff.

So it seems that consumers are already asking the question without thought as to it being socially acceptable or not.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by russellw

...


Short answer is no we won't. With one high risk person in the household and both of us over 60, if anyone who regularly visits (and that's not many) wants to be unvaccinated that's fine but we aren't taking the risk of them exposing us even when we are fully vaccinated. It's a smaller risk at that point but frankly not worth taking.

How are you going to know for sure that they are vaccinated? Even if you ask, they could always just lie?

[Falcon SXR8]

Everyone is welcome at my place, vaxed or unvaxed. Vaccinated can still carry it so if I was worried about getting covid I would make everybody vaxed or not, have a covid test. The vast majority will be vaxed anyway so you will probably be more likely to get it from a vaxed person in the future anyway.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by PG2

How are you going to know for sure that they are vaccinated? Even if you ask, they could always just lie?

Russell's front door border control... "Vaccination certificate please!"

[Citroënbender]

While I think it’s in peoples’ interests to be vaccinated against coronavirus - and encourage them where suitable - I consider choice to reflect their dogma; any risk with no vaccination is largely upon them. Prevalent in my attitude to visitors, too, is Devarim (Deuteronomy) 10:19, since I mentioned dogma.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Trev, if I was going to visit someone in a cancer ward child or adult I would be well aware where I was, and, take every precaution under the sun to protect the immune deficient kiddies from any germs, or diseases I may or may not be carrying, even a sniffle would keep me away!
Surely there are protocols in place for visitors, especially in this covid climate, I'm gobsmacked, I really am!

The visitor was a parent who unknowingly had covid; big ask to tell parents to keep away from their very sick children who want the parents at their bedside.
Maybe hospitals should hold rapid antigen test for visitors.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Russell's front door border control... "Vaccination certificate please!"

well well well.... seems like Bill Gates was onto something with the chip idea. Imagine if people could just use NFC on their phone to alert them if someone close by was a non conformist....

[GO FURTHER]

I can see it catching on ...

Added to existing front door signs;

• No Junk mail
  
• Security alarm installed
  
• Beware of dog
  
• No Hawkers

[russellw]

The raw CMR's for the 3 States with 2021 outbreaks are quite dissimilar:

Victoria is 0.249%, NSW 0.639% and the ACT 0.559% but the adjusted CMR's are a lot closer with Victoria at 0.648%, NSW 0.778% and the ACT 0.880%, bearing in mind that the adjusted CMR is an arbitrary calculation based on the confirmed cases excluding the last 14 days. We won't know what the real figures are until we get back to low case / death numbers.