Australia housing bubble

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

When this thread started 4 years ago there were people saying pain is coming, in that time one of my assets i've owned for 10 years went up 60%. When i bought my two assets 10 years ago all my mates told me I was dumb and the bubble will pop. Both those assets are worth double what I paid. I'm still here waiting...................

i giggles at the butt hurts in this thread

[Citroënbender]

I see much of it as a knock-on. Where I am in Sydney is Chinese funded; would dearly love to see proper forensic accounting on this circus. The Aussies cash out and that’s driving other areas up. I’m on a quarter acre and we used to joke about selling for $12M but think the risk of that being taken seriously is only a few years off… 🤬

Even my acreage at the ****-end of Ganmain is creeping up and I’m starting to consider whether it would be better converted into residential fringe at Moama or similar. That sucks in a way, because I wanted big space on the unloved edge of a Riverina town and it’s no longer that.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by 290GTP

There's no stock available, as soon as something half decent hits the market its snapped up.

I'm still looking at buying. Want something in the lower Blue Mountains just outside of Sydney.

Properties are under contract within days. I've given up looking to be honest as I think I'm forcing myself to find 'anything' rather than something I like.

I'm changing my mind every week in terms of what I'm looking for. After missing out on several properties I was going to buy a unit as a short term solution but I can't see myself throwing half a million $ at an older 2br unit just to then move again in a year or 2 and renting it out or selling.

Will sit back and watch the world go by. I think once borders open and lending rules get a little harder we will get a better indication of where the market is heading.

I'll keep an eye on listings none the less but will stick to renting where I am till I find a decent block of land to build on or a house I'm happy to move right into.

Too many variables to predict where the market is heading. Not expecting a big drop, not expecting double digit increases either.

I've noticed that more properties are being listed at a price rather than auction, and that places for auction are selling before the day.

There is not much available at the moment so will wait and see.

[blueoval]

well Im in the process of building another house within the next 12 months. Going by some of the predictions here, Im hoping I will sell my current house for some of this inflation people are experiencing and own the new house outright.

[GO FURTHER]

For those who believe the bubble is going to burst soon...

Consider this... There has not been a crash in Australian house prices in the major cities for the last 50 years.

During that time Australia has weathered:

• High mortgage interest rates of up to 17.50% in 1990
• Higher unemployment rates than we have currently
• Higher inflation than we have today
• The recession of 1990
• The GFC in 2007
• The current Covid Pandemic.

Still house property prices continued to rise, despite the above factors.

There may have been some slight corrections in the housing market along the way, but nothing major, causing people to jump out of buildings.

So why do people all of a sudden think it is going to crash now?

What do they think will create the perfect storm?

[MITCHAY]

I think that while we have lower immigration rates there is still demand. And demand is higher than supply, rates are cheap, and people have stashed a lot of cash of the last two years.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

When this thread started 4 years ago there were people saying pain is coming, in that time one of my assets i've owned for 10 years went up 60%. When i bought my two assets 10 years ago all my mates told me I was dumb and the bubble will pop. Both those assets are worth double what I paid. I'm still here waiting...................

Exactly, It's Time in the market, NOT Timing the Market. that Gets you Capital Gain..

[blueoval]

interesting forecast

https://propertyupdate.com.au/proper...cycle-continue

[b0son]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

For those who believe the bubble is going to burst soon...

Consider this... There has not been a crash in Australian house prices in the major cities for the last 50 years.

Well, if you're going to say bubble, then it's really only appropriate to look at the last 20 years when it has actually been a bubble (we never had prices so out of step with income before that, so little reason they would crash).

The two big events that should have precipitated a crash, the GFC and the pandemic, didnt. The GFC, we were relatively unscathed because of a combination of substantial stimulus and booming resources, so unemployment never shot up.

When the pandemic hit, there was unprecedented financial stimulus, larger than the GFC. Lower income workers who were stood down actually had an increase in income on the support payments. The eviction moratoriums and mortgage holidays insulated that portion of the market from the pandemic's impacts, there were a number of stimulus schemes directed at the property market.

So yes, the property market hasn't had a crash, but we've been spending more and more government funds to make sure it doesn't. How confident are you we can just keep money-printing our way out of these messes?

[FTE217]

It is interesting being we've brought up the '07 GFC for the climb UP in everything since then has been alot steeper than pre GFC.
Have a good geeze through some of the graphs below
https://australiandebtclock.com.au/

Despite that who's confident ?
I thought just the same post GFC, if we can say we're in a bubble since then its been a huge ride, who knows when its going to stop/pop but sitting on the fence wondering what if or when ? hey thats the gamble just don't over extend yourself - hopefully you keep healthy or avoid any other hiccup you'll work around the down slide whenever it occurs I guess.

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...nder/100584112

[T3rminator]

I'm calling it now. Tomorrow's RBA meeting will result in a 0.25 points rise.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm calling it now. Tomorrow's RBA meeting will result in a 0.25 points rise.

Too early. Well before 2024 as previously stated but I'm thinking we will see movement mid 2022.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Went to 7 open houses on Saturday. One place I really liked. Advertised $620-660k.

Put in my offer of $671 including paying holding deposit and docusigning contract.

Got the call Sunday it sold for $693k. No option to over bid as by the time they called me both parties signed.

Other places were crap...

Back to the drawing board I go.

[Citroënbender]

I think as a whole it’s going to start impacting peoples’ mental health a lot more, across the country. Trying to rationalise an illogical but unstoppable situation while balancing your financial position vs perceptions of risk. Add a few more hot dry years and the arduous absurdity will be grinding so many down.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm calling it now. Tomorrow's RBA meeting will result in a 0.25 points rise.

Yeah nah mate. No way they will put rates up this month. There are concerns about inflation but not this month.

[Citroënbender]

When’s that feral election? I know the RBA is supposed to be impartial but suspect if they demonstrate too much autonomy right now, they might feel a government breathing down their collar…

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm calling it now. Tomorrow's RBA meeting will result in a 0.25 points rise.

I've got $10 that says; Not until after the Federal Election early next year..

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I think as a whole it’s going to start impacting peoples’ mental health a lot more, across the country. Trying to rationalise an illogical but unstoppable situation while balancing your financial position vs perceptions of risk. Add a few more hot dry years and the arduous absurdity will be grinding so many down.

Your advice and comments are always in my opinion, and my opinion only, spot on, the housing market is fed by greed, and its greed that destroys a person's health, its never going to be an even playing field again CB, but of course you are correct, you cannot rationalise something that is based on greed alone, you say illogical but in reality it's unobtainable to 90% of our population.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm calling it now. Tomorrow's RBA meeting will result in a 0.25 points rise.

Nah, this isn't like a regular meeting in the past where they actually do anything straight away. This is about them previously saying they wouldn't do anything until 2024, and revising that and saying they might do something in 2023 instead.

(Next year they'll have a meeting and despite saying today they wouldn't do anything until 2023, they'll again revise that and say they might do something in 2022 instead.)

IE, they said in the past they aren't going to do anything about rates (back when they were worried about recession and stagflation). Now they have to slowly walk that back without causings alarms by gradually saying they are preparing to lift rates sooner than expected. But it won't be for a year or two.
They're just warning people to expect something in the future, and sooner than expected.

[T3rminator]

The "courageous" call didn't come off..... Banks have spent the last 6 or so months moving customers to fixed or part fixed rates. I still reckon there will be an increase, within the next qtr.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/f...02-p5957g.html

"The official line that a rate rise would not occur until 2024 was missing from Dr Lowe’s statement on Tuesday."

[Mont5.0]

Now with the borders open, await the influx of o/s buyers.
Price hike time!

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Mont5.0

Now with the borders open, await the influx of o/s buyers.
Price hike time!

Yeh, and where does the low income hard-working aussie battler fit into the equation!

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Mont5.0

Now with the borders open, await the influx of o/s buyers.
Price hike time!

I was just thinking this today. Mmmm. I love it when investment properties go up

[Mont5.0]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Yeh, and where does the low income hard-working aussie battler fit into the equation!

they dont.

[DTFRMONT]

Originally Posted by Mont5.0

Now with the borders open, await the influx of o/s buyers.
Price hike time!

Not to mention there will now be a lot more returning expats with quarantine no longer a thing for most. Especially from places such as Hong Kong.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Mont5.0

they dont.

They should!

[Bossxr8]

I read yesterday that house values in my area have officially increased by nearly 25% in the last 12 months. That's insane.

But i'll take it

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

They should!

[FTE217]

hehe so true......
People can go on about its all too hard but I see it in my own kids @ 16/21/29 many times.
On mobile - check
Uber eats - check
Buy shoes - check
Buy shirts - check
Sports Bet - oh gamble responsively - check
Cafe smashed avo brekky - check
Buy this buy that - check
Dad want anything ? I look at time, its midnight, no thanks, Uber eats - check

Spending money today is all too damn easy but they are at their own peril.