Covid 19 -

[slowsnake]

Hot off the press in good old US of A.

PFIZER FOR KIDS FROM AGE 5.

The US Health Regulator has authorised Pfizer - BioN - Tech corona virus vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 years, making it the first COVID - 19 shot for young children in the US.
The decision is expected to make the vaccine available to 28 million children in the US, many of whom are back in school for in - person learning.

It comes after a panel of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration voted overwhelmingly to recommend the authorisation on Tuesday.
An advisory panel to the US Centers ( sic ) for Disease Control and Prevention is scheduled to meet next week to consider recommendations.
The CDC Director will have the final say!


Quoted verbatim Sunday Times WA........

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Hot off the press in good old US of A.

PFIZER FOR KIDS FROM AGE 5.

Quoted verbatim Sunday Times WA........

Them presses still a couple a days behind over in Wait Awhile eh......

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...h-11-years-age

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 178 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9370 (from 0.9941) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line but is trending downward.



VIC records 1,036 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9387 (from 0.9835) while the actual line drops further below the predictive trend which has been changed to a 4th order polynomial.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT October 30th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,522 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 1.017%.

161 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.446%.

The UK had 40,726 cases yesterday and 166 deaths for a CMR of 1.558%.

82,252 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,606 deaths sees CMR at 1.637. Note that the CMR has started to rise again after falling steadily the last two months.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 247M, the last 1M in 2 days;
The UK passes 9M cases;

Greece (4,670); and
Russia (40,251)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Turkey drops below.

[russellw]

Will be interesting to see if we follow the US on jabs for kids.

The UK advisory body recommended against it for the 12-15's in September, ruling that the health benefits were marginal. To be specific they concluded that the benefits are "marginally greater than the potential known harms", however we've gone aherad and included that age group anyway.

They further went on to say "with just two per million of healthy children needing intensive care treatment for COVID-19, the margin of benefit, based primarily on a health perspective, is considered too small to support advice on a universal program".

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

Will be interesting to see if we follow the US on jabs for kids.

The UK advisory body recommended against it for the 12-15's in September, ruling that the health benefits were marginal. To be specific they concluded that the benefits are "marginally greater than the potential known harms", however we've gone aherad and included that age group anyway.

They further went on to say "with just two per million of healthy children needing intensive care treatment for COVID-19, the margin of benefit, based primarily on a health perspective, is considered too small to support advice on a universal program".

Was theirs based on AZ Russ? That would definitely skew the risk assessment at that age.

[oldel]

Under 16 or even booster shots seem to be pfizer only - regardless of what was had before.

[Citroënbender]

That’s a shame. I’d be happy with a chaser vaccine from the cheap seats. If two doses didn’t kill me, I don’t think a third will.

Interesting to note that NZ is having - by their prior standards - a lot of Covid cases, yet the media here is no longer so focused on it.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Was theirs based on AZ Russ? That would definitely skew the risk assessment at that age.

I believe it was Pfizer but it's not clear from the report.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 135 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9206 (from 0.9370) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line but is trending downward.



VIC records 1,471 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9827 (from 0.9387) while the actual line moves back above the predictive trend which has been changed to a 4th order polynomial.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That’s a shame. I’d be happy with a chaser vaccine from the cheap seats. If two doses didn’t kill me, I don’t think a third will.

Interesting to note that NZ is having - by their prior standards - a lot of Covid cases, yet the media here is no longer so focused on it.

After my second dose last week I asked my GP if a booster shot was warranted, he replied "Billy I don't know"
I trust my GP to the nth degree, if he tells me yes I do, or no I don't then I accept that!
But his answer was " I don't know? "

[slowsnake]

Talking here about the UK children's vaccination, it's Pfizer, my great niece has been vaccinated with it, she is 14 yrs old and I know for a fact it was Pfizer, but my brother and his wife aged in their 70's could only get AZ, not sure what my niece had!

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT October 31st 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,209 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 1.017%.

143 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.436%.

The UK had 37,667 cases yesterday and 74 deaths for a CMR of 1.553%.

30,780 new cases in the USA yesterday and 370 deaths sees CMR at 1.637. Note that the CMR has started to rise again after falling steadily the last two months.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Europe passes 1.3M deaths;

Russia (40,993)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 536,648 cases in the period to 13/10 and 2,126 deaths between 14-28/10 for a CMR of 0.396% which is a bit higher than the previous period.

Thus, in the 90 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 2,791,332 cases and 10,623 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.396% which is higher than the 0.206% CMR of the last fortnight before freedom day.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.






To put that into an Australian perspective:
If we had similar CMR and case rates to the UK we'd have about 7.8M cases and 29k deaths per annum well above the 900 deaths in a bad flu year like 2019 so it is perhaps just as well that we are performing better than those numbers.

[russellw]

.. and here's an interesting snippet from the ANZIS survey of all 194 private and public ICU's:

The total number of currently open staffed ICU beds was 2,183 as at 31/8/2021. This was 195 fewer (8.2%) than in 2020; the decline was greater for rural/regional (18%) and private ICUs (18%). The reported maximal ICU bed capacity (5,623) included 813 additional physical ICU bed spaces and 2,627 in surge areas outside ICUs. The number of available ventilators (7,196) exceeded the maximum number of ICU beds. The reported number of available additional nursing staff would facilitate the immediate opening of 383 additional physical ICU beds (47%), but not the additional bed spaces outside ICUs.

[Citroënbender]

Disappointingly impressive; all the hoo-ha about preparedness and the net outcome is a scaling-back of capacity. Not surprised, sadly.

[russellw]

Also of interest is a review of short-term and long-term persistent postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) which covered more than 250k survivors with a median age of 56.4 years and of which 79.5% were hospitalised. Please note that all medians are mid-spread (interquartile range). In laymen's terms that means lasting side-effects.

The median proportion of COVID-19 survivors experiencing at least 1 PASC was 54.0% (45.0%-69.0%) at 1 month (short-term); 55.0% (34.8%-65.5%) at 2-5 months (intermediate-term); and 54.0% (31.0%-67.0%) at 6 or more months (long-term).

Most prevalent pulmonary sequelae, neurologic disorders, mental health disorders, functional mobility impairments, and general and constitutional symptoms were chest imaging abnormality (median 62.2%); difficulty concentrating (median 23.8%); generalised anxiety disorder (median 29.6%); general functional impairments (median 44.0%); and fatigue or muscle weakness (median 37.5%).

In this systematic review, more than half of COVID-19 survivors experienced PASC 6 months after recovery. The most common PASC involved functional mobility impairments, pulmonary abnormalities, and mental health disorders.

Neurologic Symptoms
The most common neurocognitive symptoms were difficulty concentrating (median 23.8% [20.4%-25.9%]); memory deficits (median 18.6% [17.3%-22.9%]) and cognitive impairment (median 17.1% [14.1%-30.5%]).

Dysgeusia (loss of taste) and anosmia (loss of smell) were reported in 11% (median 11.2% [6.7%-18.9%]) and 13% (median 13.4% [7.9%-19.0%]) of the survivors, respectively.

Pulmonary Abnormalities
Dyspnea (shortness of breath) (median 29.7%; [14.2%-37.0%]), cough (median 13.1% [5.3%-22.6%]), pulmonary diffusion abnormalities (median 30.3% [22.1%-38.5%]), ground glass opacification (an increase in lung attenuation) (median 23.1% [19.7%-43.0%]), restrictive patterns on spirometry (median 10.0% [6.1%-24.1%]), and lung fibrosis (median 7.0% [2.5%-17.7%]).

Overall, chest imaging abnormalities were present in a median of 62.2% (45.8%-76.5%) of survivors.

General and Constitutional Symptoms
Most commonly reported symptoms were joint pain (median 10.0% [6.1%-19.0%]); fatigue or muscle weakness (median 37.5% [25.4%-54.5%]); and flu-like symptoms (median 10.3% [4.5%-19.2%]). General pain (median 32.4% [22.3%-38.4%]), persistent fever (median 0.9% [0%-3.1%]), and muscle pain (median 12.7% [5.6%-21.3%]) were also frequently reported among survivors.

Cardiovascular Disorders
Chest pain and palpitations were common cardiovascular manifestations in survivors of COVID-19. The median frequency of chest pain and palpitation were 13.3% (8.8%-17.8%) and 9.3% (6.0%-10.8%), respectively.

[russellw]

.. and to wrap up the science for today, here is a detailed study of vaccine efficacy based on all 111,000 lab confirmed cases in Puerto Rico since vaccines were first introduced. Please note that Astrazeneca wasn't used there.

All vaccines were effective at reducing risks for all outcomes across all age groups. At the peak of their protection:

mRNA-1273 (Moderna) had an effectiveness of 90% (88% - 91%);
BNT162b2 (Pfizer) had an effectiveness of 87% (85% - 89%); and
Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson) had an effectiveness of 58% (51% - 65%).

After four months, effectiveness waned to about 70%, 60%, and 30% respectively.

All vaccines had a lower effectiveness for those over 85 years, with the decrease in effectiveness particularly low for the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. We found no clear evidence that effectiveness was different after the Delta variant became dominant. For those infected, the vaccines provided further protection against hospitalization and deaths across all age groups, although the protection was less for those above 85 years.

Perhaps the most telling point was this one:

Using the rates observed for the unvaccinated we would have observed 6,273 hospitalisations and 2,096 deaths among the vaccinated population but we instead observed 744 and 167, respectively.

It's only a single (albeit comprehensive) study but that's 8x less likely to be hospitalised and 18x less likely to die.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That’s a shame. I’d be happy with a chaser vaccine from the cheap seats. If two doses didn’t kill me, I don’t think a third will.

Interesting to note that NZ is having - by their prior standards - a lot of Covid cases, yet the media here is no longer so focused on it.

I'm wanting to go to Philippines early next year and they have introduced the traffic light system for inbound tourists.

NZ is green 'lowest risk' yet Australia is yellow 'moderate risk'.

Still got some time up our sleeves for that to change but with our cases on the decline I was surprised to see us on the yellow list.

[CoupeKing]

Trust the science they keep saying. What they really mean is ''trust the political science''.

[PHANTMXR6]

Originally Posted by russellw

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 536,648 cases in the period to 13/10 and 2,126 deaths between 14-28/10 for a CMR of 0.396% which is a bit higher than the previous period.

Is that a typo Russ and you meant 31/10?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by russellw

Also of interest is a review of short-term and long-term persistent postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) which covered more than 250k survivors with a median age of 56.4 years and of which 79.5% were hospitalised. Please note that all medians are mid-spread (interquartile range). In laymen's terms that means lasting side-effects.

In this systematic review, more than half of COVID-19 survivors experienced PASC 6 months after recovery. The most common PASC involved functional mobility impairments, pulmonary abnormalities, and mental health disorders.

Neurologic Symptoms
The most common neurocognitive symptoms were difficulty concentrating (median 23.8% [20.4%-25.9%]); memory deficits (median 18.6% [17.3%-22.9%]) and cognitive impairment (median 17.1% [14.1%-30.5%]).

Hey Russell, do you think that being locked down for such a long period in the UK may have had more of a detrimental effect on middle aged folk?
Anyone who has spent time in an English winter knows how depressing it can be, but with lockdown thrown in for good measure too, do you think it affected the ability of the folk to build a proper immune defence against the covid virus!
So for instance if the UK had Australia's nicer climate, would they of fared better!

Cheers Billy

[FairmontGS]

5 million people have officially died from COVID-19. But who's not being counted?

Professor Alan Lopez, a leading international expert on disease burden and health statistics, believes 5 million is a very inaccurate count of the pandemic's death toll. Professor Lopez says the actual figure is likely to be between 12 and 15 million — or close to half of Australia's total population.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...dden/100568156

[zilo]

My son is a surgeon in one of the large Covid wards in sydney.

basic rule of thumb is..

Once you have needed a ventilator you are basically screwed for life.

Good reason to get vaccinated.

[MITCHAY]

I'm double vaccinated, like most are around here in the ACT.

We had a really nice BBQ this arvo and there was no distancing or masks. It was just nice to get back into the real world again.

WA and QLD can hide under the doona as they see fit.

[oldel]

We've been having BBQs, not wearing masks, filling up pubs and restaurants for most of the past 18months LOL.

In a couple of months we'll probably be reopen and in the meantime haven't had to deal with covid much at all. No reason to point a finger to WA just because we remained open internally and pretty much unscathed. Our total cases/deaths are less than some daily tallies in NSW/Vic.
I'm jealous of ACTs vaxx rate, but don't be jealous of our almost covid free lifestyle. I want our vaxx rate higher and I want to be open by feb anyway (don't care about this year at all, I think it's going to get worse over east before it gets better anyway, especially regional and indigenous areas). Willing to wait it out because after all W.A. stands for 'wait awhile' anyway)

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by oldel

We've been having BBQs, not wearing masks, filling up pubs and restaurants for most of the past 18months LOL.

We did too until that **** called Delta came around mate

[CoupeKing]

"The data is very clear... this is really becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated and that means getting vaccinated, you can save yourself."

Jen Psaki.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

We did too until that **** called Delta came around mate

well good for you mate

the difference is whilst we enjoy our selfs not hiding under the doona as you believe
we also didnt allow sh*ts in to the state to rampant spread it whilst we enjoyed our freedoms
but hey if it helps you at night to get thru it by sledging believing we are hiding under doona's like youve posted a few times now so be it

so we'll see you when you come out of your next one

[rare ss]

I quite like hiding under my doona, it's been unseasonably chilly over here in WA.. but I guess that's climate change