Covid 19 -

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I dunno, I quite enjoy getting up at 9, rolling over to the lounge room and logging on, have the TV on in the background, check a few emails, play with the dog, work on the car , cook a decent lunch, then actually do a bit of actual work, then knock off whenever without feeling being watched.

I'm usually up by 630 but have knocked it back to 7 because I haven't had to do battle with traffic. 9 might as well be mid arvo for me. I suppose you Mexicans have had to deal with this much more than us but

I do have the TV on for the noise but don't pay much attention to it. I have my remote at hand with the mute button ready anytime for Palachook and McFlog though. Can't listen to their bull****

It will be good to have a clear line between work and home again. I like WFH and we have done a lot of things but prefer it to be a choice rather than an order.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by blue sleeper

Anthrax is most definitely found in nature......

Sure is, and there is a very famous case of some bikers in the USA I think in the 60's or 70's who one Chilly night on a bike run killed a few sheep, skinned em and ended up lining their jackets with the fleeces, lol.....all got anthrax, I will try and dig it up on the net today!

[slowsnake]

Again from Weekend West newspaper, took pic, too much to copy by hand.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 5th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,580 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 1.012%.

166 new cases and 1 death for NZ so CMR is 0.406%.

The UK had 33,697 cases yesterday and 193 deaths for a CMR of 1.532%.

88,006 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,133 deaths sees CMR at 1.639%.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 5.05M, the last 50k in 7 days;

Croatia (6,932);
Slovakia (6,805);
Greece (6,889); and
Germany (35,806);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 271 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0173 (from 1.0155) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line and which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,268 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.00088 (from 1.0159) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 244 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0109 (from 1.0173) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line and which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,173 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9759 (from 1.0088) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.

[hayseed]

Just out of curiousity Russell. How High is the next Bump predicted to be??

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 6th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,553 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 1.009%.

204 new cases and 2 deaths for NZ so CMR is up to 0.422%.

The UK had 30,150 cases yesterday and 155 deaths for a CMR of 1.529%.

86,704 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,374 deaths sees CMR at 1.638%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 250M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe passes 66M cases;

Croatia (7,094);
Austria (9,943) - the previous high on 13/11/21; and
Russia (41,335)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Poland moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Just out of curiousity Russell. How High is the next Bump predicted to be??

Probably a bit early to say yet.

[Citroënbender]

A shade ironic. The national vaccination lottery here was won by a person from China: https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...8-233eee1e452c

Apart from that, the ongoing machinations of recognising or disqualifying Covid vaccines used elsewhere is likely to get a gee-up as we open to more international travellers.

https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-vacc...ce-recognition

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A shade ironic. The national vaccination lottery here was won by a person from China: https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...8-233eee1e452c

Apart from that, the ongoing machinations of recognising or disqualifying Covid vaccines used elsewhere is likely to get a gee-up as we open to more international travellers.

https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-vacc...ce-recognition

So we struggle with homeless and other issues and a 25yo wins a million for getting a jab she would have done anyway. Genius.

[rare ss]

Originally Posted by oldel

Evap coolers don't last that long, metal rusts, plastic sags. Sure you can keep one runing for a decade, but parts are a rip off for what they are and so little people are interested in repairs, or spending summers on roofes (esp 2 storey), every summer there's huge waiting lists and price rises.

In short, never bother repairing evap coolers, due to parts pricing and limited repairers always just replace the unit and dropper at the first sign of problems, and before the summer heat.

I'm not saying that as a past owner, but an ex fridgey. Most fridgies don't want to touch them but I was rare in the fact I'd give anything a go. I always regret it. Never again, too much hassle, multi fan speed controller got complicated, diagnosis hard, some brands had horrendous spare parts pricing, very secretive with repair manuals as they want all customers to only phone them for repairs (and charge $200 hr with huge wait lists in summer).

By the time I had my own business I just used to subcontract an evap installer company just to replace the whole system if I saw dropper metal rust or sagging brittle plastics rather than try repair the motor/speed controller for $1k.

Evap coolers are disposable as they're full of flimsy overpriced parts

Agree with you to a point, I'm only a busted @ss diesel mechanic but I've managed to keep ours running for almost 20 years now, yes it's had 3x fan motors, controller due to a wiring short (dodgey insulation) couple of water pumps and even lashed out for some new pads last year but it still does the job

Only thing I regret is not putting a water filter on the line or even the whole house, we have pretty heavy water and it's like it's snowing when I clean it out.. full on calcium flakes!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

So we struggle with homeless and other issues and a 25yo wins a million for getting a jab she would have done anyway. Genius.

Lottery was set up by a bunch of businesses and philanthropists (aka mega wealthy individuals who can afford to give a few million away to earn a lot more millions back). By encouraging vaccination with the lottery (not sure it really had that much effect to be honest), the community is able to get to 80-90%, which allowed them to open their businesses up. So they give a million here, but they get multi millions back. Makes perfect sense.

[slowsnake]

This border opening here in WA in the early months of 2022 fills me with a feeling of dread, its like felling cold and Chilly on a nice warm summers day, once it gets here ( covid ) People like me, and there are a lot in my situation, ie:- double vaxxed but old and serious general health issues, especially pulmonary 🫁 issues.

But as long as I go working on a neighbours car, or fixing my bonnet then I will die with a smile on my face!....

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 187 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9958 (from 1.0109) while the actual line remains above (albeit heading down toward) the predictive trend line which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,126 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9858 (from 0.9759) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 7th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,415 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 1.006%.

114 new cases and 2 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.416%. I forgot to mention that the 204 cases yesterday was a new record high.

The UK had 29,843 cases yesterday and 62 deaths for a CMR of 1.524%.

32,749 new cases in the USA yesterday and 422 deaths sees CMR at 1.638%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Australia passes 180k cases;
Asia passes 81M cases;

No countries.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[Charliewool]

Interestingly…. Only 10 seconds on MSM devoted to the Melbourne protests on Saturday..
Reporting “around a 1000” protesting?
I’ve seen the actual footage, know people who attended,.. And “genuine” estimates were more like a minimum of 30,000! (So, virtually Gov/MSM censorship?)
These weren’t the usual rentacrowd ratbag elements either… Mum, Dad, kids.. peaceful, and supported by even the police…
The crux of these “new” protests is more about the latest “God almighty” powers replacing the existing “State of emergency” legislation… It’s way more than rabid anti-vaxers.
I reckon there’ll be 100,000 next Saturday??

[Burnout]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Interestingly…. Only 10 seconds on MSM devoted to the Melbourne protests on Saturday..
Reporting “around a 1000” protesting?
I’ve seen the actual footage, know people who attended,.. And “genuine” estimates were more like a minimum of 30,000! (So, virtually Gov/MSM censorship?)
These weren’t the usual rentacrowd ratbag elements either… Mum, Dad, kids.. peaceful, and supported by even the police…
The crux of these “new” protests is more about the latest “God almighty” powers replacing the existing “State of emergency” legislation… It’s way more than rabid anti-vaxers.
I reckon there’ll be 100,000 next Saturday??

Seems Chairman Dan is in fer a bittova rough time.
He may haveta throw himself down the stairs next time.

Sent from my SM-A305YN using Tapatalk

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Burnout

Seems Chairman Dan is in fer a bittova rough time.
He may haveta throw himself down the stairs next time.

Sent from my SM-A305YN using Tapatalk

Listening to IBAC enquiry atm…
No stairs for Dan this time… (he’s presently getting well and truly thrown under the bus as we speak)

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Polyal

So we struggle with homeless and other issues and a 25yo wins a million for getting a jab she would have done anyway. Genius.

I honestly thought the money was well spent since it attracted about 2.7 million people to be vaccinated, if you look at how governments have been spending money during this pandemic this $1 million just a drop in the ocean.

Cheers.

[naddis01]

6% of Ivanhoe NSW test positive for Covid in one day...

12 out of 200.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...ovid/100602216

[russellw]

In conjunction with the global vaccination push, you'd reasonably expect that case mortality rates would drop and on a global basis, they have; from 2.149% at the end of July this year, to the current 2.021%. That's the good news.

However, one of the consequences is a rise in case numbers in some countries that have also led to rising CMR rates so that merits a closer look.

In the last 21 days, the total global case number growth has been 3.75% with a lot of countries well under that but a reasonable number of countries having had a greater than 10% increase in case numbers. These include:

Anguilla which only had 668 cases since the pandemic began but has seen a 35.7% increase although the CMR dropped slightly. Vaccination rates are slow but might pick up now.

Armenia has seen a 13.1% (42k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 11% so it makes sense.

Australia has seen a 23% (41k case) increase but the CMR fell. Vaccination rates are high so the case numbers are probably a result of some freedoms coming too soon.

Austria has seen a 12.2% (112k case) increase but the CMR fell. Vaccination rates are around 64% so it's another case of too soon for freedoms and they have put some restrictions back in place.

Barbados has seen a 39.6% (8k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are around 50% so there's probably some more work needed.

Brunei has seen a 25.4% (3.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are around 70% so there should be some improvement soon.

Bulgaria has seen a 15.0% (95k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are only around 22% so it makes sense.

Croatia has seen a 15.3% (76k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are only around 43% so that's about right.

Estonia has seen a 17.0% (35k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are around 52% but that's clearly not enough.

The Faeroe Islands, which only had 1,300 cases since the pandemic began has seen a 49% increase and a rising CMR. Vaccination rates are high at >80% so this one is a bit of a mystery unless it's from incoming tourists.

Georgia has seen a 13.3% (100k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 27%, it's not hard to see why.

Greece has seen a 12.1% (95k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 60%, the numbers should be better.

Ireland has seen a 12.3% (58k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 80% (of 18+), the numbers should be better.

Laos has seen a 33.7% (16k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 30% so there's no surprises there.

Latvia has seen a 22.2% (51k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 50% so there's a way to go yet.

Lithuania has seen a 18.9% (63k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 57% there is still a way to go.

New Caledonia has seen a 12.8% (1.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 58% so there's a way to go yet.

New Zealand has seen a 34.3% (2.5k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 78%, the numbers should be better.

Singapore has seen a 35% (76.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates have been over 80% for awhile now so the expected improvement hasn't materialised for some reason.

Slovakia and Slovenia have seen rises of 16.3% (85k case) and 14% (50k case) respectively although the CMR's fell slightly. Vaccination rates are sub 50% in both countries so there's no surprises in those results.

Thailand has seen a 10.4% (205k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 37% there is still a long way to go.

The UK has seen a 10.1% (940k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 85% the improvements haven't been great there either.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by naddis01

6% of Ivanhoe NSW test positive for Covid in one day...

12 out of 200.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...ovid/100602216

I’m a bit concerned for the big fella in that article, looks like the kind of health profile that has been problematic before…

[oldel]

End of the day probably 100% are going to get covid. The delaying tactics by the states was to cover the federal rollout failures to get everyone vaccinated this year.
Everyone is going to get it after the states reopen. Get vaccinated and you probably won't die, even if in the 'problematic' groups.

[DJR-351]

Hopefully a significant time locked away is given to her.....

https://www.9news.com.au/national/ch...jection_081121

[Work Horse]

NSW report finds unvaccinated 16 times more likely to die or end up in ICU.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia...120f8b1c66cfbe
That's a suprise!

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 8th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,256 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 1.006%.

192 new cases and 1 death for NZ so CMR is 0.418%.

The UK had 31,982 cases yesterday and 57 deaths for a CMR of 1.520%.

60,694 new cases in the USA yesterday and 501 deaths sees CMR at 1.637%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 251M, the last 1M in 2 days;

Greece (7,335);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Vietnam moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 224 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0274 (from 0.9958) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,064 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9989 (from 0.9858) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Week 17 in Victoria ended today with 80,232 cases to date compared to 19,870 at the same point of the 2020 outbreak (which was down to ~20 cases a day at this point) and 65,721 for the NSW 2021 outbreak. Weekly case numbers see Victoria with more than twice as many cases as NSW last week but overall case numbers are down below those of the last few weeks for both States. Note that we are comparing historical data for NSW with current data for Victoria as NSW is about 3.5 weeks ahead.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

NSW report finds unvaccinated 16 times more likely to die or end up in ICU.

That's a suprise!

Have been saying that for a long time.

Looking at the figures in a bit more depth:

~3,769 fully vaccinated people got infected and 497 of those were hospitalised and 30 of those were admitted to ICU although 27 of those had serious co-morbidities.

Of more concern are the 47 deaths even if they were all either from aged-care facilities or with serious co-morbidities.

Anyway:
61,800 cases in total - 6.1% of those fully vaccinated.

8,660 hospitalised = 14.01% of all cases or a bit higher than we'd previously seen but if we exclude the vaccinated cases and hospitalisations then 8,163 of 58,030 cases were hospitalised - a rate of 13.21%.

However only 497 (5.7%) of those admissions were fully vaccinated which is 0.8% of all cases or 13.18% of vaccinated cases.

In terms of ICU admissions, there were 1,015 from the 61,800 cases for a raw rate of 1.64% which is consistent with what we've seen thus far. The rate for unvaccinated people is 1.7% and only 0.80% for vaccinated.

The 412 deaths represents a raw CMR of 0.67%, well below the pandemic long CMR and a CMR of 0.63% for the unvaccinated. Of those, 47 were fully vaccinated which makes the CMR much higher at 1.25% (47 deaths from 3,770 cases). This is somewhat slanted, of course, simply because they are generally much older and also suffered co-morbidities.

In simple terms - if you are fully vaccinated:

You are roughly 15x less likely to become infected;
You are roughly 17.4x less likely to be hospitalised; and
You are roughly 16x less likely to be admitted to an ICU.

However, if you are 75+ and have serious co-morbidities you are roughly twice as likely to die compared to a younger, healthy but unvaccinated person.

Which isn't to say that you are better off not being vaccinated!

[slowsnake]

WA morning paper, cartoon by Alston....