Covid 19 -

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Why are you so bothered by it, get the vaccine and dont read poor journalism?

I’m frustrated more than bothered by it, attitudes that articles like this create, for EG “I’m vaccinated, I’m safe” and pretending like that’s the golden ticket to health are creating a false sense of security.

Being that our lives have been turned on their head for the past two years in the spirit of protecting the vulnerable and at risk, I’d prefer to see some journalists say “your vaccinated? Great. Now let’s talk about what else we should all be doing to improve our health picture”

Being ABC I’m hardly surprised that it’s rubbish content however it was worth discussion.

On the flip side, why is talking about overall health such a taboo subject when it’s clearly related to Covid outcomes?

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by jaydee

Agreed, but a simple jab will go a long way to you having not to go to ICU.
The same can't be said for people with other ailments, there is no instant cure jab to stop you getting fat, stop you smoking, kicking your habit etc.
The vax is a good preventative measure.
I'm not for 1 second suggesting we don't help those sorts of people.
Although I did know of a guy who had 2 heart ops and the Drs said "If you don't stop smoking you will die and we are not doing a 3rd heart op on you, this is it" He didn't quit and died 6 months later of heart attack.
Don't know if he had a warranty

Bet ya he died happy though!
The doctors cannot refuse to operate because you smoke tobacco products, they tried that on me, I won, I have one less lung but I won the argument, but it took a few threatening emails, which I still have, no doctor wants to be interviewed by A Current Affair, or spend 4 years being hassled by AHPRA! Or Health Minister in WA, Roger Cooke!

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 264 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0950 (from 1.0492) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,313 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0052 (from 1.0163) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 10th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,225 new cases for Australia and 17 deaths so the CMR is 1.009%.

147 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.404%.

The UK had 39,325 cases yesterday and 214 deaths for a CMR of 1.513%.

90,671 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,689 deaths sees CMR at 1.637%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 252M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe records the first day over 300k cases since 8/11/2020;
Europe passes 67M cases;
Russia passes 250k (official) deaths;

Slovakia (7,055);
Croatia (7,315);
Austria (11,398); and
Germany (45,416)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

I’m frustrated more than bothered by it, attitudes that articles like this create, for EG “I’m vaccinated, I’m safe” and pretending like that’s the golden ticket to health are creating a false sense of security.

Being that our lives have been turned on their head for the past two years in the spirit of protecting the vulnerable and at risk, I’d prefer to see some journalists say “your vaccinated? Great. Now let’s talk about what else we should all be doing to improve our health picture”

Being ABC I’m hardly surprised that it’s rubbish content however it was worth discussion.

On the flip side, why is talking about overall health such a taboo subject when it’s clearly related to Covid outcomes?

Vac numbers has always been about having a target so we can get on with thing, I dont think the Gov has opening said your safe if you get it. You will go mad trying to vent what the press do these days.

I think you have the answer to your own question regarding overall health condition, if anything it should have been a re-enforcement to get the jab.

We are in an interesting period over the next month, lots of companies stating to get one jab and have your second booked by the end of the month or you are on leave with no pay.

Merry Christmas.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Vac numbers has always been about having a target so we can get on with thing, I dont think the Gov has opening said your safe if you get it. You will go mad trying to vent what the press do these days.

I think you have the answer to your own question regarding overall health condition, if anything it should have been a re-enforcement to get the jab.

We are in an interesting period over the next month, lots of companies stating to get one jab and have your second booked by the end of the month or you are on leave with no pay.

Merry Christmas.

Yes, reading my morning paper I come across an article about 2 stevedoring companies sacking a few workers who refused to be vaxxed, now if you want to be rich and get paid better than a neurosurgeon without the tertiary effort or qualifications then become a " wharfie "
The average person on the street has no idea about closed union shops, that's just a phrase, but workplace, seen lots of it and the Union Organisers are pulling the strings, called it what you like, a form of " string less puppetry " and workers who are opine like, but get sheared once a month at a barbershop, they can afford it.

But no wharfie gives up his job, then he would be a mug, that's what they call em, mugs, I will buy the Weekend Australian and guarantee there will be a write up somewhere in there about it!
The wages and conditions in closed union shops are hard to get your head around, newspapers and major breweries are the same, I may be a dinosaur but nothing has changed since I last worked in a closed shop as a contractor, that was CUB Broadway Sydney on a 2 month shutdown, the year was 1985, the unskilled workers and skilled workers sign their sons on at birth, back then outsiders had no chance, unless you knew someone, just like some rich Pom Lord of the Manor does to get into Eton College!

No these wharfies or stevedores who were sacked for being un vaxxed is bullsh.t, they will keep their jobs, the editorials about it are I think just making matters worse, and for the dumb amongst us very confusing!

[Polyal]

To my knowledge no company is stating you will be sacked, you will just be stood down with no pay until its sorted out. If you don't then you wont get paid and after time discipline actions are taken and you will find yourself out.

PS - apologies for the grammar prior

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Polyal

To my knowledge no company is stating you will be sacked, you will just be stood down with no pay until its sorted out. If you don't then you wont get paid and after time discipline actions are taken and you will find yourself out.

PS - apologies for the grammar prior

Seems that the compa y is called DP World, sacked 2 Fremantle workers who did not vax by the Nov 8th deadline, but the MUA WA branch said it was aware of 6 members being sacked, and 3 are being represented by MUA lawyers.

Go's on to say DP World was the 1st stevedoring company in Australia to mandate for vaccination, it has also sacked 21 workers in Sydney, one in Brisbane and 10 in Melbourne!

QUOTE
The West Australian today.

[slowsnake]

Couldn't sleep again so up at 2am Perth time, 5am Sydney time, TV on ans Ch 24, was Barrie Cassidy interviewing Dr Norman Swan a medical reporter, he is the dude who exposed Dr William McBride and how his research into Thalidomide was flawed and made up just to get funding.
I only caught the end of an half hour interview, so he must of mentioned covid and I missed it, I don't use internet news, but I wonder if anyone else caught it, must of been about fudging covid stats, not thalidomide!

[Citroënbender]

Sydney feels to be trending towards 300 new Covid cases per day as a sort of continuum.

I remain surprised at Victoria’s slow reduction in new cases, their health system isn’t seeming over-run; many must be working through their infections in other environments.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 264 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0756 (from 1.0950) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line which is trending upward again.



VIC records 1,158/ cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0261 (from 1.0052) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 11th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,556 new cases for Australia and 5 deaths so the CMR is 1.003%.

185 new cases and 1 death for NZ so CMR is 0.407%.

The UK had 42,401 cases yesterday and 195 deaths for a CMR of 1.509%.

97,426 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,627 deaths sees CMR at 1.637%.

Other notable points:
Europe records a new daily high of 329,702 - the previous high on 7/11/2020;

Iceland (205);
Austria (11,975);
Netherlands (16,287) - the previous high on 20/12/2020; and
Germany (50,377)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[ford12]

Originally Posted by russellw

NSW/VIC
NSW records 264 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0756 (from 1.0950) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line which is trending upward again.

image

VIC records 1,158/ cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0261 (from 1.0052) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

image

Sorry, but has the vic graph been updated ?

[jaydee]

Anyone else having trouble loading the digital certificate on their phone saying they're double vaxxed?
I've loaded it 4 times, get the icon pop up on screen, but then hours later it disappears and have to reload, becoming a PITA.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by ford12

Sorry, but has the vic graph been updated ?

It has now. Sorry about that.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Sydney feels to be trending towards 300 new Covid cases per day as a sort of continuum.

I remain surprised at Victoria’s slow reduction in new cases, their health system isn’t seeming over-run; many must be working through their infections in other environments.

So when do we get to a point when we stop reporting? Does it really matter anymore?

Sounds rough but what are we gaining with the report?

[Citroënbender]

The most unusual aspect of this (now) comparatively infrequent illness is the legal compulsion attached to perceived risk of exposure. Once isolation becomes recommended advice - not a legally binding instruction - then I think it’s time to put it with all the other health statistics racked up daily in NSW.

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Couldn't sleep again so up at 2am Perth time, 5am Sydney time, TV on ans Ch 24, was Barrie Cassidy interviewing Dr Norman Swan a medical reporter, he is the dude who exposed Dr William McBride and how his research into Thalidomide was flawed and made up just to get funding.
I only caught the end of an half hour interview, so he must of mentioned covid and I missed it, I don't use internet news, but I wonder if anyone else caught it, must of been about fudging covid stats, not thalidomide!

I doubt it.

Dr Norman Swan is a Covid advisor who does lots of reports for the ABC.

He's highly regarded

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Polyal

To my knowledge no company is stating you will be sacked, you will just be stood down with no pay until its sorted out. If you don't then you wont get paid and after time discipline actions are taken and you will find yourself out.

PS - apologies for the grammar prior

Have a few dudes at my work stood down (not sacked) with no pay and no access to their entitlements.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by jaydee

Anyone else having trouble loading the digital certificate on their phone saying they're double vaxxed?
I've loaded it 4 times, get the icon pop up on screen, but then hours later it disappears and have to reload, becoming a PITA.

I love Pita bread by the way, I tried through the mygov app but had to connect through my health record which had to be connected to Medicare, I gave up, they don't make it easy do they

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by xxx000

I doubt it.

Dr Norman Swan is a Covid advisor who does lots of reports for the ABC.

He's highly regarded

He wasn't being interviewed about Thalidomide, but they must of been talking about fudging stats to talk about that!
So I wondered what is happening in the world for Barrie Cassidy to be interviewing Dr Norman Swan, had to be Covid-19, that's just an assumption, I missed the 25 mins and got the end 5 mins!

[oldel]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

I love Pita bread by the way, I tried through the mygov app but had to connect through my health record which had to be connected to Medicare, I gave up, they don't make it easy do they

Did my parents recently certs using a laptop. They didn't even have mygov so I had to start from scratch. Took about 30min for a mygov account and linking medicare (card number, last medical appointment clinic, card numbers, any phone number, address or bank account you've used with medicare claims before)

Then - you won't like this - easiest way to get vaxx proof is a phone app!

Otherwise a huge further pain getting it printed. Do you want to carry around an A4 cert, or risk the QR code on a scaled down print out not working?
Easier to just use the medicare app on a smartphone

[slowsnake]

I got a paper certificate on the spot after second shot?
It was at my GP's for shot 2, nurse who vaxxed me asked if I want a copy, would of been nice in colour, lol,....

[russellw]

I've been reading an in-depth study from Korea about the use of masks in public transport environments and their effectiveness.

South Korea, or more specifically Seoul, has one of the highest public transportation use rates in the world (65% of all movements) and thus makes a good case study. They also have a smart card system for users that shows time/location of embarkation, carriage travelled in (on trains) and time/location of disembarkation which allowed accurate modelling of an individuals repeated mobility pattern of regularity and therefore reproducible patterns. Thus, the 'familiar stranger group', which a specific public transportation user frequently encounters was analysed and it was possible to simulate the spreading process of the COVID-19 virus in public transportation networks over a period of time.

Existing studies proved that wearing N95 masks can block almost all mock viruses and widespread use of the mask can effectively suppress aerosol propagation. KF94 and KF80 masks exhibit 98.7% and 87.6% anti-inhalation effects while the efficacy of an unauthenticated mask worn by an untrained individual is in the range of 58 to 85%.

The executive summary is thus:

1. When social distancing is implemented without mandatory mask-wearing the effect of reducing congestion can be reflected which results in a 39.8% reduction in cases.

2. When only wearing a mask is mandatory without social distancing, a 95.8% reduction is observed because of the mask-wearing, even if congestion occurs.

3. When both social distancing and mandatory mask-wearing are implemented the compounded benefits of distancing and mask-wearing result in a 96.6% reduction.

[russellw]

There have also been a number of studies that have reported findings in the last week.

Pfizer - efficacy over 6 months
In a placebo-controlled, observer-blinded, multinational, pivotal efficacy trial, 44,165 participants 16 years of age or older received two does, 21 days apart, of BNT162b2 or placebo. The trial end points were vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and safety, which were both evaluated through 6 months after vaccination.

Vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 91.3% [89.0 - 93.2] through 6 months of follow-up among the participants without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection who could be evaluated and there was only a gradual decline in vaccine efficacy. Vaccine efficacy against severe disease was 96.7% [80.3 - 99.9].

Household Contacts - Vaccine Effectiveness
Netherlands. The study extrapolated vaccine effectiveness against onward transmission by comparing secondary attack rates among household members between vaccinated and unvaccinated index cases, based on source and contact tracing data collected when Delta variant was dominant.

Effectiveness of full vaccination of the index against transmission to fully vaccinated household contacts was 40% [CI 20-54%] which is in addition to the direct protection of vaccination of contacts against infection.

Effectiveness of full vaccination of the index against transmission to unvaccinated household contacts was 63% [CI 46-75%]

This compares to the previously reported reported effectiveness of 73% [CI 65-79%] against transmission to unvaccinated household contacts for the Alpha variant.


Effects of Covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy in 2020
Source:37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Note that Australia was not a participant in the study.

Data: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex.

Measure: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the WHO standard life table.

Exec Summary:
- Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020.
- No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea.
- The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in:
Russia (men: −2.33, women: −2.14);
United States (men: −2.27, women: −1.61);
Bulgaria (men: −1.96, women: −1.37);
Lithuania (men: −1.83, women: −1.21);
Chile (men: −1.64, women: −0.88); and
Spain (men: −1.35, women: −1.13).

Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea.

In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million years of life lost more than expected - 17.3 million in men and 10.8 million in women.

The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men 7260, women 3730); Russia (men 7020, women 4760); Lithuania (men 5430, women 2640); USA (men 4350, women 2430); Poland (men 3830, women 1830) and Hungary (men 2770, women 1920).

The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania,and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000.

Conclusion More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.

Evaluation of the Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine in Children 5-11 Years
Method A phase 1, dose-finding study and an ongoing phase 2–3 randomized trial are being conducted to investigate the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine administered 21 days apart in children 6 M to 11 years of age. Note that this study was funded by Pfizer but has been peer reviewed.

We present results for 5-to-11-year-old children. In the phase 2–3 trial, participants were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive two doses of either the BNT162b2 vaccine at the dose level identified during the open-label phase 1 study or placebo. Immune responses 1 month after the second dose of BNT162b2 were immunologically bridged to those in 16-to-25-year-olds from the pivotal trial of two 30-μg doses of BNT162b2. Vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 at 7 days or more after the second dose was assessed.

Results: During the phase 1 study, a total of 48 children 5 to 11 years of age received 10 μg, 20 μg, or 30 μg of the BNT162b2 vaccine (16 children at each dose level). On the basis of reactogenicity and immunogenicity, a dose level of 10 μg was selected for further study. In the phase 2–3 trial, a total of 2,268 children were randomly assigned to receive the BNT162b2 vaccine (1,517 children) or placebo (751 children). At data cut-off, the median follow-up was 2.3 months.

In the 5-to-11-year-olds, as in other age groups, the BNT162b2 vaccine had a favourable safety profile. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were noted. One month after the second dose, the geometric mean ratio of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) neutralizing titers in 5-to-11-year-olds to those in 16-to-25-year-olds was 1.04 [CI 0.93 to 1.18], a ratio meeting the prescribed immunogenicity success criterion. Covid-19 with onset 7 days or more after the second dose was reported in three recipients of the BNT162b2 vaccine and in sixteen placebo recipients for a vaccine efficacy of 90.7% [CI, 67.7 to 98.3].

Vaccination and Disease Severity (Pfizer & Moderna)
Question: Does prior COVID-19 vaccination reduce hospitalizations for COVID-19, and among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, does prior vaccination reduce disease severity?

Findings: In a case-control study that included 4,513 hospitalized adults in 18 US states, hospitalization for a COVID-19 diagnosis compared with an alternative diagnosis was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0.15 for full vaccination with an authorized or approved mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.

Among adults hospitalized for COVID-19, progression to death or invasive mechanical ventilation was associated with an aOR of 0.33 for full vaccination.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT November 12th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,390 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 1.001%.

199 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.397%.

The UK had 38,900 cases yesterday and 145 deaths for a CMR of 1.504%.

90,485 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,439 deaths sees CMR at 1.637%.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 5.1M, the last 50k in 7 days;
Global cases pass 253M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe records a second consecutive day over 500k cases;

Denmark (4,585) - the previous high on 18/12/21

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 256 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0550 (from 1.0756) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line but heading back toward it.



VIC records 1,158/ cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0364 (from 1.0261) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend which has been changed back to a 3rd order line.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 663,272 cases in the period to 28/10 and 2,472 deaths between 29/10-13/11 for a CMR of 0.373% which is a bit lower than the previous period.

Thus, in the 105 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 3,454,604 cases and 13,095 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.379% which is higher than the 0.206% CMR of the last fortnight before freedom day.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.



To put that into an Australian perspective:
If we had similar CMR and case rates to the UK we'd have about 9.7M cases and 36.8k deaths per annum well above the 900 deaths in a bad flu year like 2019 so it is perhaps just as well that we are performing better than those numbers.

[FairmontGS]

A significant milestone today in The GSS that went by the media wayside - 0 deaths from the plague. First time since August. Looking forward to more days like this.

[MITCHAY]

Well I'm on my way back to work next week after this week was a write off. I haven't been there since the 12/8 when they announced the shutdown.

After I had bought $100 worth of masks they remove the restriction even at my office Though will be handy when another wave comes.

So far so good in the ACT. No one in hospital at the moment and active cases are declining though obviously testing is no where as high as it was for a long time. Important number is hospital and deaths though.