Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Looks like its not quite the same as the 400 who were positive when told they were negative.

The 995 were told the same but results are yet to be determined in this error

Another 500 today. Curious how many of these were pre qld flights

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by xxx000

Yes but what you describe would involve large numbers of people congregating waiting for testing then results.

I lined up for 4 hours this morning to be tested. Much like many other people did at all 'walk in' testing centres. People older than me were uncomfortable as there was nowhere to sit and no shade. People were there with kids, people couldn't find security to ask permission to use a toilet. When I finally checked in the guy in front of me said he had severe symptoms and was feeling very very ill.

When I went in to be tested, they had 2 staff processing the people, then another staff confirming the stickers, then 1 or 2 staff actually doing the testing.

I'm told the going rate to analyse a swab is $80+. They would have processed over 1,000 people today. I'm sure they could have put on a few more staff, considering that much of the staff time is taken up by non medical jobs like data entry and checking of personal details against the print out.

Originally Posted by xxx000

Plus the creation of labs at the same location.
I'd imagine the queues of traffic just to enter the parking stations would dwarf the debacle we have now.

What is needed in regards to a 'lab' to test these swabs? Honest question. Is it just a clean room with good lighting and power? Traffic would be greatly reduced if people can get a bus or a train to the testing locations. What does a large sporting stadium hold? 50K people? 80K People? I assume that when they go to watch a match they must all arrive prior to a certain time... it works for sports, it would work for Covid testing - more so if better crowd management was employed and well advertised (people showing symptoms first between x and y time, then people needing testing for work or travel, then non symptomatic close contacts then casual contacts). Why not?

Originally Posted by xxx000

The current system at least isolates people in their cars, out of the weather and reducing possible transmission.

People that are pregnant, people that have kids, people that are not able to go to the toilet or eat something, people that may not have AC - or a combination of them.

I couldn't think of anything worse than inching along in a car for several hours with no way to escape.

Originally Posted by xxx000

The swab process is fast but having people then wait at the same location for the results is unnecessary and increases risk.

Yes. Perhaps the waiting around suggestion was not needed. Please take some time to listen to talkback radio. Families have not been able to get tested for days, pregnant women being asked to get a negative result before they are admitted to give birth.

Originally Posted by xxx000

Homebush which would be probably the only site that would match your suggestion is currently being used as a mass vaccination hub but this is by appointment to limit traffic and issues. Been there and it works well.

Yes, perhaps worked well for vaccinations but now we need the same ingenuity for testing.

We have been locked up for almost 2 years, now that we can travel both interstate and OS to a certain degree with a negative result the boffins in charge allowed a huge number of testing locations to close over the Christmas period. I have 3 testing locations within walking distance to me and all closed. I have 3 more close by that are also closed.

Some for a few days, some till early Jan.

Who would have guessed that all the other places that remained open would have overwhelming attendance? Really?

But, McDonalds never closed, nor did lots of other places. What are our priorities here?

Originally Posted by xxx000

More of what we have (drive through testing sites) would seem to be the answer with the samples still forwarded to offsite labs.

Sure - as long as you are in and out in under 1hr, and get results within 24 hrs. Anything more is taking way too long. There are people that have waited over 3 days and cancelled their holidays losing money, then there are others that didn't get results, and got waved across the border without stopping and showing anything. That's not right.

And lets think about this for a second from a 'common sense' point of view - what good is a test result that is 3 days old? Lets be realistic here - are people seriously believing that all those negatives are still guaranteed to still be negative after 3 days??

Originally Posted by xxx000

The current Fed and NSW Govts are now focused on being reelected so are keen to downplay Covid and so unfortunately don't seem interested in opening more facilities. The current labs are probably working 24/7 too and are stretched to their limit

Yes, but there is HUGE, HUGE money being made with all this testing. We are being treated worse than in some developing countries and paying for it handsomely for the privilege of being stuffed around.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by leesa

1158 new cases for QLD

And they cancelled the need for testing on day 5 for visitors....

[FairmontGS]

NSW demands Queensland change ‘stupid’ Covid test rules as queues and delays grow

The NSW health minister, Brad Hazzard, blamed interstate travel requirements for a significant increase in demand on an already overwhelmed system and the lengthy delays.

Hazzard accused the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, of “passive-aggressive stupidity” over the issue.

Wait times had blown out to the point the test results were no longer relevant, Hazzard said on Tuesday.

“It is taking up to four days, sometimes five days, to get test results.

“They might have been negative on day one when they had their test, but they could well be positive on day four or day five when they cross the border.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...nd-delays-grow

[MITCHAY]

252 for ACT today. They have reclassified a lot of sites to monitor for symptoms instead of casual which has testing requirement so see how much that helps.

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

And they cancelled the need for testing on day 5 for visitors....

It was just was on the news they were only getting 0.6% positive rate on 5th day test so seems like a no brainer to me when you have community spread well and truly.

[FairmontGS]

Details of previously secret battle over Victorian COVID contact tracing information made public

The details of a protracted legal battle between the Victorian health department and workplace safety watchdog over citizens' personal contact tracing information have been made public after a failed government bid to suppress the proceedings.

The documents reveal the government fought to keep the details suppressed to prevent the public from learning that contact tracing data may not have been as secure as authorities had promised.

The spread of the virus from the Stamford Plaza and Rydges hotels in mid-2020 was the catalyst for the state's deadly second wave of COVID-19.

The department provided some of the documents but refused to give up the contact tracing data, "arguing that to do so would undermine the public confidence in contact tracing, with devastating effect", a Supreme Court of Victoria judgment shows.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...ight/100728412

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

NSW hospitalisations have pretty much doubled in the last 7 days. Would be interesting to know how many are Omnicron and how many are "others".


My anti vax friend who caught Delta a couple of months ago.....she is sick again after Christmas partying. Flu like symptoms, splattering all over place....she only told me when I dropped over for a visit a couple of days ago (knew I was coming!!). But she reckons she tested negative using RAT the day before

Still, she was uncertain enough to don on the face nappy whilst I was there. I've not felt anything.....yet.

You are a keen person visiting your friend, I would have given her a miss on the visitation until she was 100% sure she has not got it.
Cheers

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Itsme

You are a keen person visiting your friend, I would have given her a miss on the visitation until she was 100% sure she has not got it.
Cheers

RATs are supposed to have extremely low false negative rates, so I guess odds were on my side.

And I figured, if I'm going to get it, may as well get the "mild" Omnicron, and from one person, and that one person wearing a mask = very low viral load.

Actually, the second part didn't cross my mind until just now

[Yellow_Festiva]

Evidence from the UK suggests Australia should have backed AstraZeneca

Evidence from the UK has sparked concern that Australia backed the wrong Covid vaccine, with one vaccine tipped to last forever.

Mitchell Van Homrigh, December 28, 2021.

Evidence from the United Kingdom shows Australia may have backed the wrong Covid vaccine, with the maligned AstraZeneca jab offering potential protection from the virus for life.

Early research has shown that Britain’s wide use of the Oxford University-made jab in vulnerable people may be behind the country’s lower death toll compared to Europe in recent months.

AZ is the predominant vaccine in the UK for those aged over 40.

The vaccine was impugned by high-profile Australians, including former Queensland chief health officer Dr Jeanette Young, who claimed it was more dangerous for teenagers than the virus.

Australia has administered 13.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine but has relied heavily on Pfizer with 25.3 million doses injected during the rollout.

In April, the AstraZeneca jab was recommended for those over 50 because of the low risk of blood clots in younger people. However, this was increased to 60 in July – crushing the public confidence in the medicine and slowing the vaccine rollout.

The approach in the motherland greatly differed with the UK recommending, in May, alternative jabs to under 40s if they were easily available while the over 40s kept taking AstraZeneca in large numbers.

Former chairman of the UK’s vaccine task force Clive Dix said this week that the immunity response prompted by the jab could “last for life”.

.............................

Makes for some interesting reading...

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...79af848f1adce3

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

RATs are supposed to have extremely low false negative rates, so I guess odds were on my side.

And I figured, if I'm going to get it, may as well get the "mild" Omnicron, and from one person, and that one person wearing a mask = very low viral load.

Actually, the second part didn't cross my mind until just now

Sometimes you can get it a few days after testing with negative results, I tend to avoid people for a few days to be on the safe side of things.
Don't need to go looking for the virus.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Details of previously secret battle over Victorian COVID contact tracing information made public

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...ight/100728412

See post #17471.

The hit piece was first released by News Corpes Herald Sun with a much different headline.

Key points left out:

• WorkSafe Victoria requested contact tracing information as part of an investigation into the health department
• The information has remained confidential, after the department refused to hand it over
• Stronger protections for contact tracing information have been introduced with the state's new pandemic bill

Thats right. The bill that the numpties were trying to kill actually strenghtened the protection of the data (which was negotiated by the indies).

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

See post #17471.

The hit piece was first released by News Corpes Herald Sun with a much different headline.

Key points left out:

• WorkSafe Victoria requested contact tracing information as part of an investigation into the health department
• The information has remained confidential, after the department refused to hand it over
• Stronger protections for contact tracing information have been introduced with the state's new pandemic bill

Thats right. The bill that the numpties were trying to kill actually strenghtened the protection of the data (which was negotiated by the indies).

https://about.abc.net.au/talk-to-the...%20ABC%20staff.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://about.abc.net.au/talk-to-the...%20ABC%20staff.

ABC actually did the right piece. Key points were taken from the ABC, which were pointed out in case anyone missed it.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 11,201 cases in the current period (another new record) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1861 (from 1.1047) while the actual line is back above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 3,767 cases in the current period (also a record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1350 (from 1.0800) while the actual line is now well above the predictive trend.



Queensland (1,158), SA (995), Tasmania (46) and the ACT (252) all set new daily highs again yesterday (28/12).

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 709,107 cases in the period to 12/12 and 1,564 deaths between 13-27/12 for a CMR of 0.221% which is lower than the previous period at 0.275%. Case numbers, however, are up by 76k (13%) over the previous period so there will be some flow on.

Thus, in the 150 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 5,337,964 cases and 18,420 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.345% which is below the 0.364% at day 135.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.




To put that into an Australian perspective: If we had similar CMR and case rates to the UK we'd have about 15M cases and 51.7k deaths per annum.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 28th 2021.

11,192 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 5 deaths so the CMR is 0.681%.

NZ reported 44 cases and no deaths for a CMR of 0.352%.

The UK recorded 129,385 cases and 18 deaths for a CMR of 1.200%.

395,801 new cases in the USA yesterday (a new record) and 1,609 deaths sees CMR at 1.561%.

It should be noted that I have equalised the figures for some countries across the 3 days where it was obvious that their high numbers were catch up. I have also applied this to both the global case numbers and those for Europe otherwise both would have been stupidly high.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 283M, the last 1M in 1 days;
Europe passes 84M cases;
North America passes 64M cases;
Spain passes 5M cases;

Burkina Faso (592);
Iceland (737);
Burundi (937);
Montenegro (1,120);
Malta (1,298);
Cyprus (2,241);
Angola (3,090);
Zambia (3,907);
Reunion (4,807);
Ethiopia (5,185);
Greece (9,284);
Switzerland (10,373) - the previous high (10,128) on 5/11/20;
Australia (11,192);
Greece (21,657);
Canada (21,658);
Spain (99,671);
the United Kingdom (129,385); and
the USA (395,801)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Slovenia, Montenegro, Turkey, Argentina and Latvia move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Poland drops below.

[Pooka]

After the NSW numbers today, the statement made a couple of days ago by that old fool with a God complex keeps replaying in my head. "Bottom line here is that we would expect that pretty well everybody in New South Wales at some point will get Omicron. We're all going to get Omicron."

This narcissistic old moron thinks we all should just accept HIS reality. Hey.. we're all going to get infected so let's just make it easier for everyone in Australia to get infected hey?? Does he really think it can be contained in just his state, without spilling over to the rest of Australia?? Absolute moron.

At some point we are all going to die. Might as well get it over and done with.. right??

[arm79]

Originally Posted by Pooka

This narcissistic old moron thinks we all should just accept HIS reality. Hey.. we're all going to get infected so let's just make it easier for everyone in Australia to get infected hey?? Does he really think it can be contained in just his state, without spilling over to the rest of Australia?? Absolute moron.

You do realise both Qld CHO's have said the same or something very similar over the past couple of months.

So does have different officials in different states make it any less narcissistic or an emerging general opinion? However ridiculous you and I personally think it is.

[PHANTMXR6]

NT CHO said the same today….

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Pooka

After the NSW numbers today, the statement made a couple of days ago by that old fool with a God complex keeps replaying in my head. "Bottom line here is that we would expect that pretty well everybody in New South Wales at some point will get Omicron. We're all going to get Omicron."

This narcissistic old moron thinks we all should just accept HIS reality. Hey.. we're all going to get infected so let's just make it easier for everyone in Australia to get infected hey?? Does he really think it can be contained in just his state, without spilling over to the rest of Australia?? Absolute moron.

At some point we are all going to die. Might as well get it over and done with.. right??

Umm, its not just his reality, it is THE reality of the situation, at some point in time everyone will get the SARS Covid virus unless you live in isolation for the rest of your life.
This virus wont be eradicated, it will continue on in different mutations, just like the yearly flu, for the foreseeable future only much more easily spread and will claim many lives.

The way we in Australia have dealt with it up to this point has provided many with a false sense of security, suppression was never going to be the answer, all it did was bought time for those who bought in to get vaccinated and give themselves a better than average chance of avoiding serious complications, even that isnt the magic bullet though.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Umm, its not just his reality, it is THE reality of the situation, at some point in time everyone will get the SARS Covid virus unless you live in isolation for the rest of your life.
This virus wont be eradicated, it will continue on in different mutations, just like the yearly flu, for the foreseeable future only much more easily spread and will claim many lives.

I was thinking about this in relation to the flu the other day.

I'm 42 and I've had the flu shot every year for as long as I remember.

Being a vaccine and not a cure, its job is to decrease your chances of getting it and the severity of it if you do get it. Doesn't always work like that and unfortunately some people get badly sick or die.

Because of this, I have no idea whether I have contracted the flu in the past. Maybe I never have. Maybe I've had it 10 times. Maybe that mid winter sniffle I had 5 years ago was a flu infection that was shut down by the vaccine. I can't test for it anymore, nor can anyone else, so we'll never know.

My simple mind and view sees this will be covid for me (and I suppose all of us) in the future. Whether that future is over the next few months or over the next few years it remains to be seen.

[T3rminator]

I wonder if health authorities, or anyone else for that matter, have done the numbers in terms of what is an acceptable number of cases per day.

For example, if the average stay for a covid hospitilisation is, say, 14 days. And we have X number of "beds" for covid patients without severely impacting other non covid patients. And Y% of Covid cases (Z) results in hospitilisation. Then what is the Z that can we live with?

[T3rminator]

South Africa study suggests Omicron could displace Delta
https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ta-2021-12-28/

Dec 28 (Reuters) - Research by South African scientists suggests that Omicron could displace the Delta variant of the coronavirus because infection with the new variant boosts immunity to the older one.

The study only covered a small group of people and has not been peer-reviewed, but it found that people who were infected with Omicron, especially those who were vaccinated, developed enhanced immunity to the Delta variant.

[Yellow_Festiva]

So the QLD government will accept rapid tests for entry.

How will they actually confirm they are from the person submitting them?

Is it just a matter of showing the plastic result 'thinggo' to someone when entering QLD?

Unless someone actually watches the test being done then the whole thing is pointless and open to abuse.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

So the QLD government will accept rapid tests for entry.

How will they actually confirm they are from the person submitting them?

Is it just a matter of showing the plastic result 'thinggo' to someone when entering QLD?

Unless someone actually watches the test being done then the whole thing is pointless and open to abuse.

Wait times for results in neighboring States have blown out beyond what the purpose of the test provides and getting worse, its become a waste of resources with how fast Omicron can move.
The RAT's are simply a token gesture to appease the hysterical no different to QR check-ins.
They're hoping people do the right thing.

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

So the QLD government will accept rapid tests for entry.

How will they actually confirm they are from the person submitting them?

Is it just a matter of showing the plastic result 'thinggo' to someone when entering QLD?

Unless someone actually watches the test being done then the whole thing is pointless and open to abuse.

we're so overrun with covid that it probs doesn't matter anymore.

[Cav]

Heading out to get my boost.

Just in time as Central Qld has bin infected.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I wonder if health authorities, or anyone else for that matter, have done the numbers in terms of what is an acceptable number of cases per day.

For example, if the average stay for a covid hospitilisation is, say, 14 days. And we have X number of "beds" for covid patients without severely impacting other non covid patients. And Y% of Covid cases (Z) results in hospitilisation. Then what is the Z that can we live with?

I'm sure they have. If I had to do some quick back-of-the-envelope numbers, I'd say (based on Delta cases):

Average stay 12 days;
Average cases requiring hospitalisation: 12.1%;
Average cases requiring ICU: 4.1%.

It's the latter number that has been the focus to date with (for example) NSW having 844 ICU beds available although I suspect the average stay there might be a bit lower given the mortality rate but you could take the simple linear approach and say ....

844 beds available means 844 ICU cases over (let's say) 10 days.
844 ICU cases at 4% of infections means 21,100 cases over 10 days - which number we have already exceeded.

The saviour here, it that Omicron cases (based on the UK data I posted the other day) seem to have ICU admission rates about 1/10th those of Delta which would translate to 200k cases over our 10-day period instead.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 12,226 cases in the current period (another new record) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1978 (from 1.1861) while the actual line is back above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,137 cases in the current period (also a record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1664 (from 1.0350) while the actual line is now well above the predictive trend.



Queensland (1,589), SA (1,472) and Tasmania (56) all set new daily highs again yesterday (29/12).

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm sure they have. If I had to do some quick back-of-the-envelope numbers, I'd say (based on Delta cases):

Average stay 12 days;
Average cases requiring hospitalisation: 12.1%;
Average cases requiring ICU: 4.1%.

It's the latter number that has been the focus to date with (for example) NSW having 844 ICU beds available although I suspect the average stay there might be a bit lower given the mortality rate but you could take the simple linear approach and say ....

844 beds available means 844 ICU cases over (let's say) 10 days.
844 ICU cases at 4% of infections means 21,100 cases over 10 days - which number we have already exceeded.

The saviour here, it that Omicron cases (based on the UK data I posted the other day) seem to have ICU admission rates about 1/10th those of Delta which would translate to 200k cases over our 10-day period instead.

Thanks Russ. Hospitalisation is one to keep an eye on IMHO. Now that we are pretty much fully opened, a covid patient taking a bed means one less for non covid related accidents and illnesses.

NSW hospitilisation on the 15th Dec was 166. Its 746 today, with a 100+ jump overnight. 64.5% of those are fully UNvaccinated....according to covidlive.