Covid 19 -

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by yakcam

It doesn't have to be public, you could just pm her.

Good point.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Looks like WA is about to join the party...

WA COVID update: New exposure sites listed including Domino’s pizza in East Fremantle, Portside Boulders

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/cor...ders-c-5133103

yeh what 20 odd known cases stemming from a backpacker entering WA from QLD on Dec 12th , if thats joining the GSS 10s of thousands a day party , im thinking WA made a hash of it , nice party so far

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...ases/100725586

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by wodahs

yeh what 20 odd known cases stemming from a backpacker entering WA from QLD on Dec 12th , if thats joining the GSS 10s of thousands a day party , im thinking WA made a hash of it , nice party so far

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...ases/100725586

I hope WA gets it covid outbreak under control but it does not take much for this insidious virus to spread.

[Cav]

So check in is no longer mandatory in pubs and clubs?



https://www.qld.gov.au/health/condit...asual-contacts

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 21,151 cases in the current period (another new record) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.2485 (from 1.1978) while the actual line is almost vertical and well above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,919 cases in the current period (also a record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1860 (from 1.1664) while the actual line is now well above the predictive trend.



Queensland (2,222), the ACT (253), NT (33) and Tasmania (91) all set new daily highs again yesterday (30/12).

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Cav

So check in is no longer mandatory in pubs and clubs?

I can't speak of other states, being in Vic, but the question in many people's minds I've spoken with, is the following;

Since, the definition of a "close contact" has now changed (in most states) to only those exposed to someone who has tested positive in a home environment, and the fact that contact tracing has been severely scaled back in Victoria...

Will you be notified (by the health authorities / contact tracers) if you checked into an establishment that requires checking in, and there was a confirmed positive case in the timeframe window while you were also there?

If you won't be contacted now... Then what is the point of mandatory check ins anymore?

In reverse, even if you voluntarily contacted the establishment yourself, to say you tested positive.... It is highly unlikely, the management of that establishment is going to contact all patrons who were present as well.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by russellw

the actual line is almost vertical and well above the predictive trend line.

You're fitting a single trend to two seperate outbreaks. Maybe its time to trim off the data before November?

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 30th 2021.

21,264 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 15 deaths so the CMR is 0.613%.

NZ reported 71 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.363%.

The UK recorded 188,124 cases and 332 deaths for a CMR of 1.164%.

438,383 new cases in the USA yesterday (a new record) and 2,308 deaths sees CMR at 1.555%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 286M, the last 2M in 1 day;
Global cases set a new daily high of 1,802,543;
Europe sets a new daily high with 969,054 cases;
North America sets a new daily high with 574,538 cases;
Europe passes 86M cases;
North America passes 65M cases;

Togo (491);
Cabo Verde (791);
Aruba (698);
Iceland (768);
Gabon (1,163);
Luxembourg (1,230);
Malta (1,353);
Ivory Coast (1,578) - the previous high (767) on 25/3/21;
Montenegro (1,747);
Uganda (1,809) - the previous high (1,735) on 12/6/21;
Cyprus (3,851);
Mozambique (4,947);
Bolivia (6,149);
Zambia (5,555);
Finland (9,619);
Switzerland (11,778);
Ireland (20,554);
Australia (21,264);
Canada (27,995);
Portugal (28,659);
Greece (35,580);
Argentina (50,506);
Italy (126,888) - 70k above the previous high;
Spain (161,688) - 60k above the previous high;
France (206,543) - ~100k above the previous high; and
the USA (531,636)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Estonia, Lebanon Tunisia, Mauritania and Luxembourg move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by b0son

You're fitting a single trend to two seperate outbreaks. Maybe its time to trim off the data before November?

Even if I only count the data for December it still looks like this ...



At some point I will probably split out this 'current' outbreak into a new one.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by Itsme

I hope WA gets it covid outbreak under control but it does not take much for this insidious virus to spread.

thats true , but it seams WA tried a little harder to keep it in check , albeit at the announce of other states and their leaders

tho it does seem to amuse me some what at their concern as to where WA might be heading rather than what they have let their own state become

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by Pooka

I'd be interested to know of anyone else's experience of getting vaccinated overseas on a temp working Visa...

Thanks for the writeup, and to @charliewood too


I have had a similar experience.


August 2019 we moved to Atlanta on a temporary working visa (Called Non Immigrant Visa here). In Jan/Feb 2020 the family travelled to Sydney, at that time I had to travel to India for work. There were rumours of a new virus just as we left.
We returned to lockdown, and soon enough it became unwise to travel back to Australia - This was due to a combination of risk, perception, permission to enter Australia, permission to return back to USA if we did get to Australia - then throw in the fact that Australia had really embraced the 'name and shame' business.
We have been through swings of 'depression' and insanity, we often sit back and 'sour grape' at how stupidly Australia is handling things.
I got Moderna as soon as I was eligible - just 'luck of the draw', My wife a few weeks later, followed by our teenagers - who got Pfizer.
Extremely straight forward, passport for ID was all that was needed, no proof of address, the only page in the passport that was referenced is the Bio page, not the Visa.
It was so easy that some Aussie friends staying in South America flew up just to get the vaccine.
We all got double vacced.
Booster time comes around, my wife goes in, but I was feeling a little off so I left it two weeks.
We were both boosted with Pfizer.
She had no issues.
I noted that the injection was more painful - I wondered if I got a bad nurse (although we established that it was the same one my wife had).
There was a bruise-like pain, just as with the first two ... but ...
I will omit the details by choice, but I put ER address beside the bed, in case it was needed by my family, it was not
Conclusion - If I need another booster, I will not choose the same pharmacy, nor will I choose the same vaccine - I do not want to go through that again.


Omicron hysteria sets in, both here and there, likely another 6 months before we will attempt to visit :-(

[Cav]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

I can't speak of other states, being in Vic, but the question in many people's minds I've spoken with, is the following;

Since, the definition of a "close contact" has now changed (in most states) to only those exposed to someone who has tested positive in a home environment, and the fact that contact tracing has been severely scaled back in Victoria...

Will you be notified (by the health authorities / contact tracers) if you checked into an establishment that requires checking in, and there was a confirmed positive case in the timeframe window while you were also there?

If you won't be contacted now... Then what is the point of mandatory check ins anymore?

In reverse, even if you voluntarily contacted the establishment yourself, to say you tested positive.... It is highly unlikely, the management of that establishment is going to contact all patrons who were present as well.

I spoke to Qld Health

No change to their advice of 17 Dec

No entry to pubs and clubs unless double vaxed

No band on the deck at Yap-Hoon RSL last night - the drummer wasn't vaxed

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 22,577 cases in the current period (another new record) and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 1.2474 (from 1.2485) while the actual line is almost vertical and well above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,442 cases in the current period (also a record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1910 (from 1.1860) while the actual line is now well above the predictive trend.



Queensland (3,118), SA (2,093), the ACT (462), NT (61) and Tasmania (137) all set new daily highs again yesterday (31/12).

[GO FURTHER]

Putting our current Australian Covid cases into perspective...

New data shows Australia leading the world in one grim Covid-19 stat amid the current Omicron outbreak sweeping the globe as at 30th December.

Australia sees biggest increase in average daily Covid-19 cases compared with prior peak.





https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/30/world/covid-cases-omicron

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 31st 2021.

32,879 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 16 deaths so the CMR is 0.567%. 2021 finishes with 371,259 cases and 1,322 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.356% - much better than the 2020 figure of 1.427%.

NZ reported 61 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.361%.

The UK recorded 188,836 cases and 203 deaths for a CMR of 1.149%.

576,118 new cases in the USA yesterday (a new record) and 1,816 deaths sees CMR at 1.531%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 288M, the last 2M in 1 day;
Global deaths pass 5.45M, the last 100k in 8 days;
North America sets a new daily high with 672,651 cases;
Europe passes 87M cases;
Italy passes 6M cases;

San Marino (547);
Andorra (618);
Aruba (742);
Togo (747);
Cabo Verde (994);
Luxembourg (1,280);
Malta (1,403);
Ivory Coast (2,858);
Cyprus (5,048);
Bolivia (7,980);
Finland (11,334);
Australia (32,879);
Canada (37,358) - 10k more than yesterday;
Portugal (30,829);
Greece (40,560);
Italy (144,243);
France (223,200); and
the USA (576,118)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Panama, Ecuador, the UAE and the Dominican Republic move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Much as I'd like to post the annual numbers, a handful of countries haven't yet reported their last day of 2021 and while most of them will be small, there's probably still ~50k cases amongst them.

[russellw]

What I can update is the last half month of global data where we can see which countries have been doing it tough. During this period, global case numbers have risen by 5.5% while deaths have risen 2.1% and the global CMR has dropped from 1.964% to 1.891% with most countries CMR dropping.

Percentage wise, here are the countries with >10% growth in the last 15 days:

Andorra (15.2%)
Angola (19.8%)
Aruba (18.6%)
Australia (41.2%)
British Virgin islands (16.3%)
Burundi (23.7%)
Canada (15.4%)
Channel Islands (21.7%)
Comoros (29.8%)
Costa Rica (20.5%)
Curaçao (14.9%)
Cyprus (14.7%)
Denmark (17.5%)
DRC (20%)
Eswatini (17.2%)
Ethiopia (11.1%)
Faeroe Islands (22.3%)
Finland (20.5%)
France (16.4%)
Gibraltar (12.8%)
Greece (16.4%)
Greenland (28.2%)
Iceland (27.2%)
Ireland (19.8%)
Italy (14.2%)
Ivory Coast (12.2%)
Kenya (13%)
Laos (17.3%)
Lesotho (18.3%)
Malawi (16.6%)
Malta (22.4%)
Monaco (19.5%)
Mozambique (18.3%)
Norway (16.6%)
Portugal (13.6%)
Réunion (12.2%)
South Korea (16.2%)
San Marino (19.5%)
South Sudan (15.3%)
Spain (14.8%)
Switzerland (12.9%)
Togo (12.4%)
United Kingdom (15.5%)
Vietnam (16.6%)
Zambia (16.7%)
Zimbabwe (18.8%)

Apart from countries with total case numbers below 10k, the only countries to see an increase in deaths >5% were:

Australia (5.7%)
Croatia (6.5%)
DRC (7.2%)
Finland (7.7%)
Georgia (7.1%)
Greece (6.3%)
Hungary (15.6%)
Laos (32.8%)
Moldova (8.4%)
Norway (12.6%)
Poland (8.3%)
South Korea (21.1%)
Slovakia (6.7%)
Vietnam (12.5%)
Zimbabwe (5.1%)

.. which is really a bit meaningless becasue if you have higher case numbers, you are going to have more deaths.

On that basis, the 15-day CMR is probably a more valid measure as these should be down in very low numbers wherever vaccination rates are high. Globally, the 15-day average is 0.720% but Australia is less than a tenth of that at 0.079% over that period. You'd reasonably expect that countries well above that global average either have low vaccination rates or other issues so let's look at those above 2% and >100k cases.

Afghanistan (6.368%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.563%;
Algeria (2.352%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.873%;
Armenia (5.886%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.311%;
Azerbaijan (2.131%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.355%;
Bosnia (4.744%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.614%;
Brazil (2.167%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.778%;
Bulgaria (4.185%) is slightly worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.143%;
Egypt (4.046%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 5.641%;
El Salvador (3.221%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.146%;
Georgia (2.439%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.476%;
Hungary (11.330%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.119%;
India (3.561%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.380%;
Indonesia (4.084%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.384%;
Iran (2.273%) is slightly worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.125%;
Iraq (3.077%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.154%;
Kyrgyzstan (4.381%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.517%;
Mexico (5.057%) is (sadly) better than the whole pandemic CMR of 7.539%;
Moldova (15.116%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.732%;
North Macedonia (3.957%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.537%;
Paraguay (2.757%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.533%;
Peru (2.179%) is (thankfully) better than the whole pandemic CMR of 8.841%;
Philippines (16.214%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.811%;
Poland (3.189%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.362%;
Romania (6.328%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.248%;
Russia (4.024%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.942%;
Serbia (2.095%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 0.978%;
Sri Lanka (2.878%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.551%; and
Ukraine (4.421%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.615%.

By way of comparison amongst countries considered to have good health care systems, and from best to worst (whole of pandemic average in brackets):

Israel has a 15-day CMR of 0.059% (0.596%) and has vaccinated 96.4% of the eligible population;
Australia 0.079% (0.567%) with 91.4%;
the UK 0.100% (1.149%) with 92.2%;
Sweden 0.135% (1.161%) with 85.6%;
France 0.178% (1.241%) with 78.8%;
Switzerland 0.242% (0.940%) with 80.2%;
Norway 0.250% (0.331%) with 91%;
Italy 0.271% (2.243%) with 85.4%;
New Zealand 0.381% (0.361%) with 91%;
Japan 0.430% (1.061%) with 79%;
the USA 0.573% (1.523%) with only 63%; and
Germany 0.971% (1.571%) with 71.2% vaccinated.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by russellw

Australia
NSW records 25,777 cases in the current period

22,577 ... typo?

Originally Posted by b0son

... typo?

Nope, that's how many new cases in NSW today.
edit: oh.. i see.. an extra couple hundred

[FairmontGS]

Martin Foley didn't follow Brett Sutton's advised COVID restrictions, pandemic documents reveal

Health Minister Foley chose not to implement the recommended changes, arguing their introduction could negatively impact hospitality businesses, reduce compliance and potentially undermine confidence in the government's public health response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...ases/100734090

[russellw]

Originally Posted by b0son

22,577 ... typo?

Fixed - I'll fix the graph tomorrow.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Martin Foley didn't follow Brett Sutton's advised COVID restrictions, pandemic documents reveal

Health Minister Foley chose not to implement the recommended changes, arguing their introduction could negatively impact hospitality businesses, reduce compliance and potentially undermine confidence in the government's public health response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...ases/100734090

To be fair GSS has ignored Kerry Chant at every turn and march her out to somehow sell a **** sandwich

I think we just will get through this **** rather than keep hiding under the doona for another ****ing year like some other states want to do.

[buggerlugs]

One way of showing your displeasure towards the vaccine.........

https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e527c28d333f51

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 18,278 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 1.1613 (from 1.2322) while the actual line has turned downwards although still well above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,172 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.1540 (from 1.1910) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Only SA (2,108) and Tasmania (433) set new daily highs yesterday (1/1).

[Falcon SXR8]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

One way of showing your displeasure towards the vaccine.........

https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e527c28d333f51

Who needs a vaccine when you have your own personal flame force field on your body. Hell probably get rid of your mask as well

[Cav]

Mask mandates are in for Yap-Hoon

The lady at the bakery didn't recognise me today so I had to remind her of my club discount - you know, the Good Lookin' Blokes Club.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT January 1st 2022.

35,254 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 11 deaths so the CMR is 0.523%.

NZ didn't report any cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.361%.

The UK recorded 162,572 cases and 154 deaths for a CMR of 1.136%.

450,298 new cases in the USA yesterday and 716 deaths sees CMR at 1.520%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 289M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Europe passes 88M cases;
North America passes 66M cases;
The UK passes 13M cases;
France passes 10M cases;

Faeroe Islands (317);
Uganda (1,867);
Ireland (23,281); and
Australia (35,254);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Senegal moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

We are still waiting for 1 country in Asia (Oman); 3 in Europe (Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) and 3 in North America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras) to report data for 31st December some of which will be reported after the weekend.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

To be fair GSS has ignored Kerry Chant at every turn and march her out to somehow sell a **** sandwich

I think we just will get through this **** rather than keep hiding under the doona for another ****ing year like some other states want to do.

It was clear early on she was being thrown under the bus at those pressers. Surprised she is still in that role.

Give it 12 - 24 months, and watch for the class actions, or attempts at least, against those that blatantly ignored health advice and which resulted mass casualties and those suffering from long covid.

I hope Dr Chant kept good notes!

[FairmontGS]

Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends

In 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic will end. Driven by the inexorable, inevitable spread of the Omicron variant and the use of vaccines, the global population will generate immunity to this virus.

The basic proposition of a pandemic, an infectious disease spreading globally among an infection-naive population, will be void. We will live our lives again as part of the incredibly social and incurably optimistic human species that thrives on this planet and has emerged from countless pandemics over history stronger and more capable of managing the next.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/welc...30-p59kzf.html

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends



https://www.smh.com.au/national/welc...30-p59kzf.html

How are they so certain? Now that we're pushing hard on letting it rip the number of mutations into a new variant is a lot higher. What's to stop us breeding a new mutation that keeps the pandemic going even longer?

It just seems awfully presumptive that we're going to let everyone get omicron and it's such a mild illness and then it's going to be over because we'll all have immunity. We will always have immunocompromised people and they're the ones that tend to cultivate the new mutations, aren't they?