Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by kmav23

Hybrids have a limited market time frame until max 2025.

After that the fall in EV prices, technology improvements with range increasing and widely available charging stations will make hybrids pointless.

This is a stupid post I'm about to make and there's zero point in making it, but source? Why 2025?
Are you picking number out of the air or is there logic behind this post?

Since you never, ever answer any questions you're asked I might as well smash my head against a brick wall rather than try to have a discussion with you. At least smashing my head against a wall has real world feedback we can see.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by kmav23

Hybrids have a limited market time frame until max 2025.

2035, not 2025.

After that the fall in EV prices, technology improvements with range increasing and widely available charging stations will make hybrids pointless.

After 2035, yes. But the rate of improvement in Li battery energy density isnt high enough to deliver ICE/hybrid-equivalent range at a comparable price within the next 4 years.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It's really going to bite manufacturers in the bum too. ICE vehicles are way more profitable. And it will take many years for that balance to change.

Ford is investing something like $22 billion dollars into EV's. Just think how many new ICE's they could develop with that sort of money. At least 20.

That’s only a fraction of what VW is spending but the threat of legislation ending ICE sales before manufacturers are ready is what’s driving this, the risk of just sailing through and missing cut off points is too great.

It just feels like the hybrid PHEV transition was completely missed by Ford who hung onto diesel sales in spite of knowing since 2015 dieselgate that a mass exodus coming, you just see how slow ford is with its whole strategy. They talk a good game but until they have anything approaching mainstream sales and good profits, it’s all rainbows and unicorns.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Doubt it. Lamborghini comes under the VW banner for example. Otherwise they probably would have been killed off already under average emissions rules.

They would surely have to be under the Mercedes banner. They are Mercedes AMG after all.

Yeah you might be right there. I haven't looked too much into it but this is a good insight into what Daimler have to deal with.

Apparently, Daimler's fleet emissions are currently at 138 g/km and they need to go down to only 100 grams. If you ask us, the target is ridiculous, since a MINI One from a few years ago was at 112 grams, but the EU isn't in a tolerant mood right now.

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/m...20-139940.html

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by kypez

Though Aston didn't and released that Toyota Aston

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Well Aston has been owned by hedge funds/investment co's for quite a while now. They aren't aligned with anyone, but have been using AMG engines.

And yeah they did that little Toyota Aygo. Aston Martin Cygnet I think it was called.

No idea how they pass the average emissions now. Do they have to buy emissions credits or something?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Well Aston has been owned by hedge funds/investment co's for quite a while now. They aren't aligned with anyone, but have been using AMG engines.



And yeah they did that little Toyota Aygo. Aston Martin Cygnet I think it was called.



No idea how they pass the average emissions now. Do they have to buy emissions credits or something?

Think they might be buying credits from Tesla like a lot of other companies do.

Think it was a Toyota IQ.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by kypez

Think they might be buying credits from Tesla like a lot of other companies do.

Think it was a Toyota IQ.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Yes the IQ. Aygo looks like a slightly bigger 4 door version.

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by Ben73

This is a stupid post I'm about to make and there's zero point in making it, but source? Why 2025?
Are you picking number out of the air or is there logic behind this post?

Since you never, ever answer any questions you're asked I might as well smash my head against a brick wall rather than try to have a discussion with you. At least smashing my head against a wall has real world feedback we can see.

Based on technology improvements, cost reductions EVs, government mandates, more charging infrastructure.

There is going to be stricter ban on emissions and total ban on Ice vehicles by major car markets.

In Shenzen china a massive city all taxis and buses are electric already.

If your a car company why would you spent too much resources and money on Hybrids when you can go 100% into EVs which is what is going to be mandated by laws.

In 5 years the reduction in EVs will be big and cost difference not much.

Why would you buy a hybrid in 5 years if price are close and when they might ban all hybrids by 2030.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by b0son

2035, not 2025.



After 2035, yes. But the rate of improvement in Li battery energy density isnt high enough to deliver ICE/hybrid-equivalent range at a comparable price within the next 4 years.

Just chuck a pantograph on the roof and we can all be like Melbourne Trams and just drive under power lines everywhere, who needs batteries



Like the cars in that horrible Super Mario Bros movie from the early 1990s



Or we could all drive these things to and from work



Imagine how many lives we'd save on the road toll? I'll let the pedestrian council know, they'll be keen as on this.

[Franco Cozzo]

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Where to start. We don't have a lot of these problems. Also, onboard charger is a 11.5kw system not 7.x that he mentions.

It's a non issue for the majority of the population.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[kmav23]

Here's the full quote from Jobs on why companies shouldn't rely on market research:

"Some people say give the customers what they want, but that's not my approach. Our job is to figure out what they're going to want before they do. I think Henry Ford once said, 'If I'd ask customers what they wanted, they would've told me a faster horse.' People don't know what they want until you show it to them. That's why I never rely on market research. Our task is to read things that are not yet on the page."


Apple has spent billions last few years preparing to make EVs.

[kmav23]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440...les-for-mining

Toyota Gets A Message About Battery Electric Vehicles For Mining

Summary

Toyota is a big player in the light mining vehicle market, but diesel is a big problem in underground mining.

VivoPower, which recently acquired Dutch company Tembo, sells refitted Land Cruiser and HiLux BEV vehicles.

Recent agreement reached to supply at least 2,000 VivoPower/Tembo Toyota electric conversion vehicles to Australian company GB Auto over 4 years.
The VivoPower deal has awoken Toyota, who are now working with BHP to test a single Land Cruiser BEV conversion.

Is Toyota’s interest too little too late? Toyota’s real competition will come not from the refit of its own vehicles but from Tesla’s Cybertruck or a number of other BEV pickups.

Toyota BEV for mining

Sometimes revolutionary change comes from left field. And so it might be for Toyota (NYSE:TM). Eighteen months ago, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha concerning Dutch firm Tembo repurposing Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles as BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) for zero-emissions underground mining applications. My take was that this was an important market for Toyota and that it needed to pay attention. Seeking Alpha rejected the article because the Dutch firm was not a company that seemed substantial.

In October last year, NASDAQ-listed VivoPower (NASDAQ:VVPR) acquired a majority stake in Tembo. Thomas Gagan has written a valuable review of VivoPower recently. So suddenly the Tembo-modified Toyota BEV Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are in the NASDAQ spotlight. Here I explore what this might mean for Toyota. With Toyota up 24% to $161.56 in the past 6 months, perhaps this might be a time for Toyota investors to take some profits and see what happens concerning its electrification plans?

The Toyota Land Cruiser
The Land Cruiser is Toyota’s longest-selling and most esteemed vehicle. The 70 Series was first launched in 1984 and it is still going. This is a classic Toyota ICE (diesel) vehicle, but its use in mines (where it is the brand of choice) is problematic as diesel emissions underground need venting due to their toxicity.

Electrification of mining vehicles
It is clear that electrification of mining vehicles has been a big issue for some time, mostly because diesel emissions underground are expensive to address, needing expensive extraction of the polluting gases. The first Tembo-modified Land Cruiser was launched in Europe in 2016 and several companies have been involved in marketing various configurations of the Toyota vehicles in Australia since 2017. Tembo-modified BEV-Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are sold throughout Europe.

Last month mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) announced a partnership with Toyota Australia (its Melbourne-based product planning team) concerning a BEV version of a Toyota Series 70 Land Cruiser to review both underground and above-ground mining activities. Edgar Basto, President Minerals Australia BHP, is clear that this is about exiting diesel: “This partnership is another step in our ongoing studies into how we can reduce the emissions intensity of our light-vehicle fleet. Reducing our reliance on diesel at our operations will help achieve our medium-term target of reducing operational emissions by 30% by 2030.”

This isn’t the first attempt by BHP to investigate a fully electric 70 Series Toyota Land Cruiser. In 2018, it announced a partnership with West Australian company Voltra to trial its Voltra eCruiser at BHP’s Olympic Dam mine in South Australia for a 12-month trial. It was based on a new Series 79 Land Cruiser with a 42 kWh lithium phosphate battery as the power source and trials seem to be ongoing. The new announcement is different in that Toyota (admittedly through its Melbourne, Australia office) is engaged on the new study.

Here I suggest that the mining developments might become a trigger for Toyota to get more serious about BEV developments. Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are key Toyota vehicles. To date Toyota has resisted full electrification of vehicles that are likely to cannibalise its ICE vehicles in a major way. Toyota investors and those contemplating how to participate in the vehicle industry as it undergoes a once in a century transition, need to follow closely what Toyota does in relation to these new developments.

Tembo fast track solution to the problem of diesel-powered light vehicles in mining
Dutch company Tembo (now owned by VivoPower, see below) has provided light vehicle solutions for mining for many years. In 2015, Tembo was approached by a mining client with ~100 Toyota Land Cruisers who wanted to improve the working environment for its underground workers. The initial thoughts were to decrease emissions from the diesel vehicles, but a test drive of a German University-built Toyota Land Cruiser BEV led to a light-bulb moment that this was a major breakthrough for light transport in underground mining. The first test vehicle was ready in October 2016. The rest is history. Tembo has global sales and distribution channels (Australia, Africa, Europe and North America) but it is a niche player with revenue of just $2.3 million in the year ended December 31, 2019.

The adoption of BEV-modified Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles for mining applications must hurt. This is an invasion of a major market owned by Toyota. I find it hard to imagine that Toyota can allow this to continue without some response. It does indicate that the case for BEV vehicles is being accepted in many areas where BEV antagonists can’t even imagine that BEVs could compete.

The Toyota vehicles are the most commonly used light vehicles in mining around the world and their frame and powertrain are well-positioned for various conversions for the trade inside mines.

With health, safety and clean air big issues in underground mining, diesel-powered vehicles are threatened. A recent article addresses the dangers of diesel particulate matter in underground mines. Key advantages (in additional to being emissions-free) of the BEV Toyota vehicles are improved performance (instant torque), less noise and less vehicle heat load in deep mines. There are huge savings in operational costs and higher reliability of electrical components means less maintenance and therefore less downtime. Big savings on energy use come from reduced ventilation if all of the machinery is electrified and emissions-free (deeper mines, more savings).

VivoPower
In September 2020, VivoPower announced plans to acquire a 51% shareholding in Tembo for $4.7 million, with an option to acquire the remaining 49%. Following a capital raising, the 51% shares were acquired and then on 2 February 2021 VivoPower announced the acquisition of the outstanding 49% of Tembo, making VivoPower the 100% owner of Tembo.

VivoPower sees the acquisition as a useful vehicle for expanding VivoPower’s market for electric light vehicles beyond the Australian mining and infrastructure sectors. VivoPower CEO Kevin Chin claims a $36 billion market for electric light vehicles.

In January 2021, VivoPower (actually VivoPower and Tembo as this occurred before VivoPower acquired all shares of Tembo) announced a $US250 million agreement with Australian company GB Auto to be the exclusive Australian distributor of Tembo core products. GB Auto has committed to purchase at least 500 Tembo 4x4 e-LV electric conversion kits in year 1 of the 7-year agreement, and 2,000 kits in the first 4 years (which includes the first year commitment).

The $US250 million value involves the first 4 years of the agreement and includes the value of the converted Toyota vehicles. VivoPower suggests that GB Auto may take the products firstly into the mining industry but also more broadly. A likely focus will be a new 72 kWh lithium phosphate battery kit for Land Cruiser and HiLux models. The current battery is just 28 kWh which allows only short-range operation.

It is unclear at the moment if/how Tembo/VivoPower is engaged with Toyota on this project. Australian company GB Auto looks like a good partner for Australia, with deep connections to the mining industry. The Australian mining industry is a global leader and so it isn’t surprising that there is a significant role for Australian operations in the electrification of the Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles.

It will be interesting to see if Toyota has a view as the project gets traction. The GB Auto deal crystallises a niche and early stage innovation. It seems that GB Auto has done the hard yards in the industry and it understands that there is a big pool of Toyota vehicles engaged in mining because these vehicles are greatly respected in the industry for quality and reliability.

The next question for GB Auto in Australia and VivoPower globally will most likely be a large number of privately-owned Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles whose owners have an interest in electrification and getting away from diesel use. A lot of rural landowners in Australia have substantial solar PV installed and could easily charge a BEV Toyota effectively removing a significant cash drain for diesel, which will probably get more expensive.

Of course underground mining is a very specialised operation with vehicles often extensively modified, each being customised for specific applications. It seems that the vehicles used currently are not registered for road use, but there is no reason why they could not be registered. Existing versions of the VivoPower fitouts have 28 KWh lithium phosphate batteries and these have limited range, but a new 72 kWh battery system is becoming available. This may allow significant range (200+ km?) depending on how the vehicle is used.

It must be noted that a 2.5-ton “tank” is not a fuel-efficient vehicle. Watch this space to see how it evolves. AB Auto will fit out your new Toyota Land Cruiser or HiLux with a BEV modification and give you a deal on the new engine and drive train if you have the cash. It isn’t clear yet that such a deal will be attractive to an individual buyer and AB Auto is pretty preoccupied with the mining market, but it may only be a matter of time.

I am pretty certain that Toyota is starting to pay attention and even if they do not want to make BEV versions of their Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles, the clock is ticking as to when they will have to do it. A hybrid Land Cruiser or HiLux underground still emits toxic gases, so a hybrid is no solution.

The environment is moving quickly on BEVs
GM (NYSE:GM) is the latest company to make clear its plans concerning BEVs. Recently, it announced that it aspires to build its last ICE car in 2035. There are a lot of announcements about BEV adoption or banning of sale of new cars with an ICE in the period 2030-2035, so change is not far away.

Japan and South Korea are interesting countries in the traditional auto industry. Some divergence on events in these countries is evident.

South Korean exports
South Korean exports of fully electric cars (BEVs) increased by 66% in 2020 and they now comprise 19% of South Korean car exports. Exports of hybrids fell by 6% in 2020. Overall car exports from South Korea fell by 13%, so the fully electric sales were an outlier that bucked the trend. Most (68%) of the BEV exports were to the UK. This is a very different export profile to the Japanese car industry. Europe’s emissions standards mean that a BEV strategy is almost essential for sale in Europe.

Japanese Government on electric cars
I’m not sure who is influencing who, but Japan is a global outlier in the switch to BEVs. The adoption of fully electric vehicles in Japan lags other major economies, although this is often overlooked because Japanese electric car figures often include hybrids (which still have an ICE). Tokyo has a 2030 date and the rest of Japan 2035 for electrification (but not banning cars with an ICE). In Japan, fully electric vehicles (BEVs) comprised less than 1% sales in 2020, compared with 7% in German and 5% in China.

In early December 2020, there was the suggestion that vehicles containing an ICE could be banned from sale in the mid-2030s. This produced consternation from Toyota which has an aggressive program for expanding hybrid vehicle sales (see below). As a result of Toyota’s strong response, it is not clear at this stage what the position of the Japanese Government is regarding ban of cars with an ICE.

Toyota’s position on BEVs
As indicated above, the Japanese Government recently suggested that it is planning to ban sale of new ICE cars, with 2030 mentioned for conventional ICE cars and 2035 for hybrids (which still have an ICE). This was in line with the Japanese Government's commitment to zero net emissions by 2050 and the announcement by the UK of a 2030 ban for ICE cars and a 2035 ban for hybrids.

This seems to have produced a strong response from Toyota, although the following strong statement from Toyota President/CEO Akio Toyoda comes from reporting on the end-of-year press conference from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. In a nutshell, Akio Toyoda thinks that adoption of BEVs will lead to the collapse of the business model of the current car industry. He may be correct.

But his reported dismissal of BEVs as leading to more greenhouse gas emissions than hybrids with an ICE has been shown not to be true in a number of studies, even with electricity grids that have a substantial fossil fuel base to their generation. Toyoda is predicting disaster for the grid if BEVs get traction. I’m not aware of experts who think that this is the case.

A question was asked about Japanese Government's plans for all vehicles to be electrified by 2030 on yesterday’s Q3 2021 earnings report. The following statement was made by Kenta Kon (CFO Toyota) “For electrification, inside of the Toyota Group, our understanding is that we have strength in the electrification technologies….Even with the Kei vehicles…probably we will start with the hybrids our strength area”. Only in Japan is a question about electrification assumed to include hybrids (which have the same sized ICE as a conventional ICE vehicle).

President Akio Toyoda is a little complacent about the competition. Here is what he said about Tesla late last year:

"Tesla says that their recipe will be the standard in the future, but what Toyota has is a real kitchen and a real chef," Toyoda said. "They aren't really making something that's real, people are just buying the recipe," he added regarding his cooking analogy. "We have the kitchen and chef, and we make real food."

It is a brave conventional car manufacturer to dismiss Tesla in such condescending terms.

The above comments from Toyota President Toyoda maker it clear what is well-known in the industry, that Toyota is holding out from engagement with full electrification of Toyota vehicles. Instead Toyota maintains its dual hybrid/fuel cell (hydrogen) approach, which is based on BEVs not being capable of full participation in the transport industry. Instead Toyota has invested billions in hybrid designs which retain a substantial ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), plus pushing the development of hydrogen-powered cars. I’ve noted previously that Toyota now has a BEV presence in both Europe and China as participation in these markets effectively requires marketing at least a token BEV presence.

My point here is that Toyota is now being confronted with electrification of one of its most emblematic lines (rugged light vehicles) by other manufacturers using its vehicles to produce a modified BEV. The partnership with BHP, while token, indicates that it is being drawn into this area. Until now Tembo (now VivoPower) has been a small operation and this might explain why Toyota’s deal with BHP is a very initial testing of the waters by Toyota Australia. Perhaps the agreement with GB Auto above for 2,000 vehicles over the next 4 years might have Toyota management thinking differently about this. If the GB Auto deal ends up involving a broader market including individual Land Cruiser and HiLux customers, Toyota might view it differently.

Of course the real challenge for Toyota is the pending arrival of a number of BEV competitors for the Toyota Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicle. The six vehicles in the above link are all American vehicles built from the ground up as BEVs, but operating in the space that the Land Cruiser and HiLux operate in. And the above is just the US. Most notable are the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Cybertruck, the Rivian RIT, the electric Ford F-150 (NYSE:F), and the GM Hummer EV. If this lineup doesn’t cause some pause for thought by Toyota, I’m not sure what will.

Conclusion
I’ve been indicating for several years now that Toyota is in danger of missing out on the electrified transport revolution as it proceeds with a twofold strategy of seeking to monetise big investment in new generation hybrid vehicles while pushing its Hydrogen Fuel Cell developments. The latest news about the adaptation of Toyota vehicles in mining applications is another wake-up call. This goes to a central feature of the Toyota company, with more than 30 years dominating vehicles for rugged and off-road applications.

This is a sector of Toyota’s business that has delivered 7.9 million vehicles over the years. I know that Toyota is in great shape financially, but I continue to argue that the stakes are high for not participating in the BEV revolution. I’m cautious about Toyota’s future unless they change direction soon. The world is passing them by. Toyota has had a good run in the past 6 months (up 24%). Perhaps it might be a time for existing shareholders to consider taking a profit on the stock?

I am not a financial advisor, but I do pay attention to big changes in low emissions energy and electrification of transport. If my commentary helps when you discuss with your financial advisor investment in Toyota or more generally your participation in auto industry investment, please consider following me.

[jgmdat]

Originally Posted by kmav23

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440...les-for-mining

Toyota Gets A Message About Battery Electric Vehicles For Mining

Summary

Toyota is a big player in the light mining vehicle market, but diesel is a big problem in underground mining.

VivoPower, which recently acquired Dutch company Tembo, sells refitted Land Cruiser and HiLux BEV vehicles.

Recent agreement reached to supply at least 2,000 VivoPower/Tembo Toyota electric conversion vehicles to Australian company GB Auto over 4 years.
The VivoPower deal has awoken Toyota, who are now working with BHP to test a single Land Cruiser BEV conversion.

Is Toyota’s interest too little too late? Toyota’s real competition will come not from the refit of its own vehicles but from Tesla’s Cybertruck or a number of other BEV pickups.

Toyota BEV for mining

Sometimes revolutionary change comes from left field. And so it might be for Toyota (NYSE:TM). Eighteen months ago, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha concerning Dutch firm Tembo repurposing Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles as BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) for zero-emissions underground mining applications. My take was that this was an important market for Toyota and that it needed to pay attention. Seeking Alpha rejected the article because the Dutch firm was not a company that seemed substantial.

In October last year, NASDAQ-listed VivoPower (NASDAQ:VVPR) acquired a majority stake in Tembo. Thomas Gagan has written a valuable review of VivoPower recently. So suddenly the Tembo-modified Toyota BEV Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are in the NASDAQ spotlight. Here I explore what this might mean for Toyota. With Toyota up 24% to $161.56 in the past 6 months, perhaps this might be a time for Toyota investors to take some profits and see what happens concerning its electrification plans?

The Toyota Land Cruiser
The Land Cruiser is Toyota’s longest-selling and most esteemed vehicle. The 70 Series was first launched in 1984 and it is still going. This is a classic Toyota ICE (diesel) vehicle, but its use in mines (where it is the brand of choice) is problematic as diesel emissions underground need venting due to their toxicity.

Electrification of mining vehicles
It is clear that electrification of mining vehicles has been a big issue for some time, mostly because diesel emissions underground are expensive to address, needing expensive extraction of the polluting gases. The first Tembo-modified Land Cruiser was launched in Europe in 2016 and several companies have been involved in marketing various configurations of the Toyota vehicles in Australia since 2017. Tembo-modified BEV-Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are sold throughout Europe.

Last month mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) announced a partnership with Toyota Australia (its Melbourne-based product planning team) concerning a BEV version of a Toyota Series 70 Land Cruiser to review both underground and above-ground mining activities. Edgar Basto, President Minerals Australia BHP, is clear that this is about exiting diesel: “This partnership is another step in our ongoing studies into how we can reduce the emissions intensity of our light-vehicle fleet. Reducing our reliance on diesel at our operations will help achieve our medium-term target of reducing operational emissions by 30% by 2030.”

This isn’t the first attempt by BHP to investigate a fully electric 70 Series Toyota Land Cruiser. In 2018, it announced a partnership with West Australian company Voltra to trial its Voltra eCruiser at BHP’s Olympic Dam mine in South Australia for a 12-month trial. It was based on a new Series 79 Land Cruiser with a 42 kWh lithium phosphate battery as the power source and trials seem to be ongoing. The new announcement is different in that Toyota (admittedly through its Melbourne, Australia office) is engaged on the new study.

Here I suggest that the mining developments might become a trigger for Toyota to get more serious about BEV developments. Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles are key Toyota vehicles. To date Toyota has resisted full electrification of vehicles that are likely to cannibalise its ICE vehicles in a major way. Toyota investors and those contemplating how to participate in the vehicle industry as it undergoes a once in a century transition, need to follow closely what Toyota does in relation to these new developments.

Tembo fast track solution to the problem of diesel-powered light vehicles in mining
Dutch company Tembo (now owned by VivoPower, see below) has provided light vehicle solutions for mining for many years. In 2015, Tembo was approached by a mining client with ~100 Toyota Land Cruisers who wanted to improve the working environment for its underground workers. The initial thoughts were to decrease emissions from the diesel vehicles, but a test drive of a German University-built Toyota Land Cruiser BEV led to a light-bulb moment that this was a major breakthrough for light transport in underground mining. The first test vehicle was ready in October 2016. The rest is history. Tembo has global sales and distribution channels (Australia, Africa, Europe and North America) but it is a niche player with revenue of just $2.3 million in the year ended December 31, 2019.

The adoption of BEV-modified Toyota Land Cruisers and HiLux vehicles for mining applications must hurt. This is an invasion of a major market owned by Toyota. I find it hard to imagine that Toyota can allow this to continue without some response. It does indicate that the case for BEV vehicles is being accepted in many areas where BEV antagonists can’t even imagine that BEVs could compete.

The Toyota vehicles are the most commonly used light vehicles in mining around the world and their frame and powertrain are well-positioned for various conversions for the trade inside mines.

With health, safety and clean air big issues in underground mining, diesel-powered vehicles are threatened. A recent article addresses the dangers of diesel particulate matter in underground mines. Key advantages (in additional to being emissions-free) of the BEV Toyota vehicles are improved performance (instant torque), less noise and less vehicle heat load in deep mines. There are huge savings in operational costs and higher reliability of electrical components means less maintenance and therefore less downtime. Big savings on energy use come from reduced ventilation if all of the machinery is electrified and emissions-free (deeper mines, more savings).

VivoPower
In September 2020, VivoPower announced plans to acquire a 51% shareholding in Tembo for $4.7 million, with an option to acquire the remaining 49%. Following a capital raising, the 51% shares were acquired and then on 2 February 2021 VivoPower announced the acquisition of the outstanding 49% of Tembo, making VivoPower the 100% owner of Tembo.

VivoPower sees the acquisition as a useful vehicle for expanding VivoPower’s market for electric light vehicles beyond the Australian mining and infrastructure sectors. VivoPower CEO Kevin Chin claims a $36 billion market for electric light vehicles.

In January 2021, VivoPower (actually VivoPower and Tembo as this occurred before VivoPower acquired all shares of Tembo) announced a $US250 million agreement with Australian company GB Auto to be the exclusive Australian distributor of Tembo core products. GB Auto has committed to purchase at least 500 Tembo 4x4 e-LV electric conversion kits in year 1 of the 7-year agreement, and 2,000 kits in the first 4 years (which includes the first year commitment).

The $US250 million value involves the first 4 years of the agreement and includes the value of the converted Toyota vehicles. VivoPower suggests that GB Auto may take the products firstly into the mining industry but also more broadly. A likely focus will be a new 72 kWh lithium phosphate battery kit for Land Cruiser and HiLux models. The current battery is just 28 kWh which allows only short-range operation.

It is unclear at the moment if/how Tembo/VivoPower is engaged with Toyota on this project. Australian company GB Auto looks like a good partner for Australia, with deep connections to the mining industry. The Australian mining industry is a global leader and so it isn’t surprising that there is a significant role for Australian operations in the electrification of the Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles.

It will be interesting to see if Toyota has a view as the project gets traction. The GB Auto deal crystallises a niche and early stage innovation. It seems that GB Auto has done the hard yards in the industry and it understands that there is a big pool of Toyota vehicles engaged in mining because these vehicles are greatly respected in the industry for quality and reliability.

The next question for GB Auto in Australia and VivoPower globally will most likely be a large number of privately-owned Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles whose owners have an interest in electrification and getting away from diesel use. A lot of rural landowners in Australia have substantial solar PV installed and could easily charge a BEV Toyota effectively removing a significant cash drain for diesel, which will probably get more expensive.

Of course underground mining is a very specialised operation with vehicles often extensively modified, each being customised for specific applications. It seems that the vehicles used currently are not registered for road use, but there is no reason why they could not be registered. Existing versions of the VivoPower fitouts have 28 KWh lithium phosphate batteries and these have limited range, but a new 72 kWh battery system is becoming available. This may allow significant range (200+ km?) depending on how the vehicle is used.

It must be noted that a 2.5-ton “tank” is not a fuel-efficient vehicle. Watch this space to see how it evolves. AB Auto will fit out your new Toyota Land Cruiser or HiLux with a BEV modification and give you a deal on the new engine and drive train if you have the cash. It isn’t clear yet that such a deal will be attractive to an individual buyer and AB Auto is pretty preoccupied with the mining market, but it may only be a matter of time.

I am pretty certain that Toyota is starting to pay attention and even if they do not want to make BEV versions of their Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicles, the clock is ticking as to when they will have to do it. A hybrid Land Cruiser or HiLux underground still emits toxic gases, so a hybrid is no solution.

The environment is moving quickly on BEVs
GM (NYSE:GM) is the latest company to make clear its plans concerning BEVs. Recently, it announced that it aspires to build its last ICE car in 2035. There are a lot of announcements about BEV adoption or banning of sale of new cars with an ICE in the period 2030-2035, so change is not far away.

Japan and South Korea are interesting countries in the traditional auto industry. Some divergence on events in these countries is evident.

South Korean exports
South Korean exports of fully electric cars (BEVs) increased by 66% in 2020 and they now comprise 19% of South Korean car exports. Exports of hybrids fell by 6% in 2020. Overall car exports from South Korea fell by 13%, so the fully electric sales were an outlier that bucked the trend. Most (68%) of the BEV exports were to the UK. This is a very different export profile to the Japanese car industry. Europe’s emissions standards mean that a BEV strategy is almost essential for sale in Europe.

Japanese Government on electric cars
I’m not sure who is influencing who, but Japan is a global outlier in the switch to BEVs. The adoption of fully electric vehicles in Japan lags other major economies, although this is often overlooked because Japanese electric car figures often include hybrids (which still have an ICE). Tokyo has a 2030 date and the rest of Japan 2035 for electrification (but not banning cars with an ICE). In Japan, fully electric vehicles (BEVs) comprised less than 1% sales in 2020, compared with 7% in German and 5% in China.

In early December 2020, there was the suggestion that vehicles containing an ICE could be banned from sale in the mid-2030s. This produced consternation from Toyota which has an aggressive program for expanding hybrid vehicle sales (see below). As a result of Toyota’s strong response, it is not clear at this stage what the position of the Japanese Government is regarding ban of cars with an ICE.

Toyota’s position on BEVs
As indicated above, the Japanese Government recently suggested that it is planning to ban sale of new ICE cars, with 2030 mentioned for conventional ICE cars and 2035 for hybrids (which still have an ICE). This was in line with the Japanese Government's commitment to zero net emissions by 2050 and the announcement by the UK of a 2030 ban for ICE cars and a 2035 ban for hybrids.

This seems to have produced a strong response from Toyota, although the following strong statement from Toyota President/CEO Akio Toyoda comes from reporting on the end-of-year press conference from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. In a nutshell, Akio Toyoda thinks that adoption of BEVs will lead to the collapse of the business model of the current car industry. He may be correct.

But his reported dismissal of BEVs as leading to more greenhouse gas emissions than hybrids with an ICE has been shown not to be true in a number of studies, even with electricity grids that have a substantial fossil fuel base to their generation. Toyoda is predicting disaster for the grid if BEVs get traction. I’m not aware of experts who think that this is the case.

A question was asked about Japanese Government's plans for all vehicles to be electrified by 2030 on yesterday’s Q3 2021 earnings report. The following statement was made by Kenta Kon (CFO Toyota) “For electrification, inside of the Toyota Group, our understanding is that we have strength in the electrification technologies….Even with the Kei vehicles…probably we will start with the hybrids our strength area”. Only in Japan is a question about electrification assumed to include hybrids (which have the same sized ICE as a conventional ICE vehicle).

President Akio Toyoda is a little complacent about the competition. Here is what he said about Tesla late last year:

"Tesla says that their recipe will be the standard in the future, but what Toyota has is a real kitchen and a real chef," Toyoda said. "They aren't really making something that's real, people are just buying the recipe," he added regarding his cooking analogy. "We have the kitchen and chef, and we make real food."

It is a brave conventional car manufacturer to dismiss Tesla in such condescending terms.

The above comments from Toyota President Toyoda maker it clear what is well-known in the industry, that Toyota is holding out from engagement with full electrification of Toyota vehicles. Instead Toyota maintains its dual hybrid/fuel cell (hydrogen) approach, which is based on BEVs not being capable of full participation in the transport industry. Instead Toyota has invested billions in hybrid designs which retain a substantial ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), plus pushing the development of hydrogen-powered cars. I’ve noted previously that Toyota now has a BEV presence in both Europe and China as participation in these markets effectively requires marketing at least a token BEV presence.

My point here is that Toyota is now being confronted with electrification of one of its most emblematic lines (rugged light vehicles) by other manufacturers using its vehicles to produce a modified BEV. The partnership with BHP, while token, indicates that it is being drawn into this area. Until now Tembo (now VivoPower) has been a small operation and this might explain why Toyota’s deal with BHP is a very initial testing of the waters by Toyota Australia. Perhaps the agreement with GB Auto above for 2,000 vehicles over the next 4 years might have Toyota management thinking differently about this. If the GB Auto deal ends up involving a broader market including individual Land Cruiser and HiLux customers, Toyota might view it differently.

Of course the real challenge for Toyota is the pending arrival of a number of BEV competitors for the Toyota Land Cruiser and HiLux vehicle. The six vehicles in the above link are all American vehicles built from the ground up as BEVs, but operating in the space that the Land Cruiser and HiLux operate in. And the above is just the US. Most notable are the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Cybertruck, the Rivian RIT, the electric Ford F-150 (NYSE:F), and the GM Hummer EV. If this lineup doesn’t cause some pause for thought by Toyota, I’m not sure what will.

Conclusion
I’ve been indicating for several years now that Toyota is in danger of missing out on the electrified transport revolution as it proceeds with a twofold strategy of seeking to monetise big investment in new generation hybrid vehicles while pushing its Hydrogen Fuel Cell developments. The latest news about the adaptation of Toyota vehicles in mining applications is another wake-up call. This goes to a central feature of the Toyota company, with more than 30 years dominating vehicles for rugged and off-road applications.

This is a sector of Toyota’s business that has delivered 7.9 million vehicles over the years. I know that Toyota is in great shape financially, but I continue to argue that the stakes are high for not participating in the BEV revolution. I’m cautious about Toyota’s future unless they change direction soon. The world is passing them by. Toyota has had a good run in the past 6 months (up 24%). Perhaps it might be a time for existing shareholders to consider taking a profit on the stock?

I am not a financial advisor, but I do pay attention to big changes in low emissions energy and electrification of transport. If my commentary helps when you discuss with your financial advisor investment in Toyota or more generally your participation in auto industry investment, please consider following me.

Did not read a bit of it and still formed the opinion you should go away.

[xxx000]

That video is focussed on charging times, notably from 'empty'. I doubt the vast majority of EV's used in cities would get near empty and are likely topped up charged instead

I'd question whether those asked for the research are thinking logically and understand or have even considered the various charging options.

As I say to doubter friends of mine: How much fuel is in your car right now? Imagine if every single morning when you leave for work your car was full because it'd been charging overnight in the garage or your driveway. No need to stop on your way to or from work to refuel.

This option will suit and work for a large % of the population, but I find many people like to dismiss something they know little about with a 'no not yet' comment. It's always 'maybe in 10 years time' or a similar throw away line.

We're prepared to stop for fuel on our way to do our weekly shop but seriously wouldn't instead consider the logical alternative of simply plugging our EV into a charger when we park our car at the shops ?

As I've said previously, and been called a liar for stating, I see so many Tesla's on the road in the area I work in. Yes it consists of generally the highest wealth postcodes in Australia. Maybe I'll have to one day record a dashcam video and point out each one to prove it.

[aussiblue]

And Shell has just announced it believes it has now passed peak oil production.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ss-opportunity

Royal Dutch Shell says it is already past peak oil.

In a Thursday press release, the company said "oil production peaked in 2019," and that it expects an annual decline of 1% to 2% per year. That's something Shell has anticipated for some time, and it's hoping a combination of new businesses will keep it from going the way of the dinosaurs whose fossils became the raw material for its main product.

[kmav23]

https://thedriven.io/2021/02/10/tesl...ady-this-year/


Tesla to sell Model 2 to global market, could be ready this year

Tesla China boss Tom Zhu says he thinks Tesla will sell an electric hatchback on the global market and that it will be available, at least in China, by the end of 2021.

In the new interview, aired by Youtube channel “T-Study” on Tuesday, Zhu discusses various questions about Tesla’s presence in China including the rapid construction of its Shanghai gigafactory and its Tesla Design Centre.

Dubbed colloquially as the Model 2, and promised by Elon Musk at the company’s Battery Day in 2020, the electric hatchback would sell from around $US25,000, or $A32,300 in Australia before shipping, import fees, GST and other taxes are added.

“So we’re confident that long-term we can design and manufacturer a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle,” said Musk in September.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by kmav23

https://thedriven.io/2021/02/10/tesl...ady-this-year/


Tesla to sell Model 2 to global market, could be ready this year

Tesla China boss Tom Zhu says he thinks Tesla will sell an electric hatchback on the global market and that it will be available, at least in China, by the end of 2021.

In the new interview, aired by Youtube channel “T-Study” on Tuesday, Zhu discusses various questions about Tesla’s presence in China including the rapid construction of its Shanghai gigafactory and its Tesla Design Centre.

Dubbed colloquially as the Model 2, and promised by Elon Musk at the company’s Battery Day in 2020, the electric hatchback would sell from around $US25,000, or $A32,300 in Australia before shipping, import fees, GST and other taxes are added.

“So we’re confident that long-term we can design and manufacturer a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle,” said Musk in September.

Given its been a year and we still have no sign of the Model Y, there is a snowballs chance in hell we'll see a model 2 any time soon.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Work Horse]

This is a copy of an email doing the rounds, but if half the predictions come true it will be interesting.

38 Interesting predictions.

1 — Auto repair shops will disappear..

2 — A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20.. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...

3 — Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...

4 — Your electric motor malfunction light goes on ... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...

5 — Gas stations will go away...

6 — Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations ... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...

7 — Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars.

8 — The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...

9 — Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof??

10 — A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...

11 — In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening??

12 — What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5–10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...

13 — Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days??

14 — Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...

15 — It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...

16 — Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...

17 — Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries ... (in the next 5 to 10 years...

18 — UBER is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...

19 — AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming..

20 — Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world ... (10 years earlier than expected)...

21 — In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON) ... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff ... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...

22 — WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer ... it's 4 times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...

23 — Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...

24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...

25 — You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's licence and they will never own a car..

26 — This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...

27 — About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...

28 — Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt... They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...

29 — Look at what Volvo is doing right now ... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...

30 — Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...

31 — Insurance companies will have massive trouble too ... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...

32 — Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home .. people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.

33 — Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...

34 — Cities will have much cleaner air...

35 — Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free..

36 — Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years ... but you can now see the burgeoning impact ... and it's just starting to get ramped up...

37 — Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid .. to prevent competition from home solar installations ... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...

38 — Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

This is a copy of an email doing the rounds, but if half the predictions come true it will be interesting.

38 Interesting predictions.

1 — Auto repair shops will disappear..

2 — A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20.. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...

3 — Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...

4 — Your electric motor malfunction light goes on ... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...

5 — Gas stations will go away...

6 — Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations ... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...

7 — Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars.

8 — The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...

9 — Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof??

10 — A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...

11 — In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening??

12 — What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5–10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...

13 — Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days??

14 — Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...

15 — It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...

16 — Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...

17 — Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries ... (in the next 5 to 10 years...

18 — UBER is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...

19 — AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming..

20 — Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world ... (10 years earlier than expected)...

21 — In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON) ... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff ... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...

22 — WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer ... it's 4 times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...

23 — Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...

24 — Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...

25 — You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's licence and they will never own a car..

26 — This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...

27 — About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...

28 — Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt... They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...

29 — Look at what Volvo is doing right now ... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...

30 — Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...

31 — Insurance companies will have massive trouble too ... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...

32 — Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home .. people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.

33 — Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...

34 — Cities will have much cleaner air...

35 — Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free..

36 — Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years ... but you can now see the burgeoning impact ... and it's just starting to get ramped up...

37 — Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid .. to prevent competition from home solar installations ... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...

38 — Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...

On Point 31, I have a good mate who is doing a lot of work and simulations/modeling to come up with how Insurance companies can stay relevant in the Car insurance game once Autonomous driving becomes a mainstay. And can you imagine the premiums if you choose to drive yourself with all the other cars autonomous?!

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by kypez

And can you imagine the premiums if you choose to drive yourself with all the other cars autonomous?!

No, but I can imagine the fun it'd be

[kypez]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

No, but I can imaging the fun it'd be

No risk of someone cutting you off or randomly pulling out. Though, if the systems have an expectation that the other car/computer could compensate for it, and the human is slower, that could cause issues as well.

[Ben73]

The most interesting thing about those predictions is that is suggests hundreds of millions of people will be unemployed.
Interesting to see what new industry is invented to employ people or whether we live in a full socialist paradise where everyone is given $1000 a month to live on.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Ben73

The most interesting thing about those predictions is that is suggests hundreds of millions of people will be unemployed.
Interesting to see what new industry is invented to employ people or whether we live in a full socialist paradise where everyone is given $1000 a month to live on.

UBI is the only way the world could survive capitalism. Everyone wants more for nothing. That's why we have no manufacturing left in Australia as people won't pay their fair share.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[GCRXR6]

Originally Posted by xxx000

That video is focussed on charging times, notably from 'empty'. I doubt the vast majority of EV's used in cities would get near empty and are likely topped up charged instead

I'd question whether those asked for the research are thinking logically and understand or have even considered the various charging options.

As I say to doubter friends of mine: How much fuel is in your car right now? Imagine if every single morning when you leave for work your car was full because it'd been charging overnight in the garage or your driveway. No need to stop on your way to or from work to refuel.

This option will suit and work for a large % of the population, but I find many people like to dismiss something they know little about with a 'no not yet' comment. It's always 'maybe in 10 years time' or a similar throw away line.

We're prepared to stop for fuel on our way to do our weekly shop but seriously wouldn't instead consider the logical alternative of simply plugging our EV into a charger when we park our car at the shops ?

As I've said previously, and been called a liar for stating, I see so many Tesla's on the road in the area I work in. Yes it consists of generally the highest wealth postcodes in Australia. Maybe I'll have to one day record a dashcam video and point out each one to prove it.

As it was the highest wage earner who owned the first ICE vehicles.
It took a long time before family citizen could afford a motor vehicle, and it was usually second hand close to expiring. EV's will follow suit and become affordable.

[GCRXR6]

Originally Posted by Ben73

The most interesting thing about those predictions is that is suggests hundreds of millions of people will be unemployed.
Interesting to see what new industry is invented to employ people or whether we live in a full socialist paradise where everyone is given $1000 a month to live on.

Every advancement of technology results in fewer jobs. Pick and shovel, replaced by dozer, dozer by dragline, typist pool by one secretary, telephone panel operator by computerised exchange, etc, etc, etc. What drives this? Capitalism. The very system that is threatened.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by GCRXR6

Every advancement of technology results in fewer jobs. Pick and shovel, replaced by dozer, dozer by dragline, typist pool by one secretary, telephone panel operator by computerised exchange, etc, etc, etc. What drives this? Capitalism. The very system that is threatened.

Well yes jobs change with technology but at least throughout the past 100 years new jobs have been created.
100 years ago no one was employed in IT and other modern technical jobs. Just like how many jobs from back then wouldn't exist now.

Now everything is going towards automation. Sure new jobs will be created here and there, but they will try to automate the new jobs too. I think developed countries will hit peak employment in the next decade.
You're right though, capitalism is causing this and it will probably destroy itself going down this path.

[jpd80]

Interesting news from Ford Europe, rather than killing off the S-Max and Galaxy MPVs,
Ford has quietly released hybrid versions of both, effectively turning both into Ford
versions of a Prius. I wonder if they'll try them in Australia, couldn't hurt.

https://redirect.viglink.com/?format...ric-and-contin...

[Gothefalcon]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

This is a copy of an email doing the rounds, but if half the predictions come true it will be interesting.

8 — The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...

Whilst coal used to create energy might (will) peter away, coal used to create steel will be here to stay. And whilst jobs will be lost in the mining of coal used for energy, more jobs will be created as demand for things like copper and rare earth minerals increase (and the recycling of rare earth minerals becomes an absolute requirement)

Same for the petrochemical industries... whilst the demand for petrol to run ICE cars will dwindle over time (perhaps faster than us petrol heads would like)... nearly everything man made we touch has some connection back to the refining of oil. So the need to drill for oil will reduce... perhaps significantly... but I don't believe it will ever stop completely.

So change is coming, and the future will be different, but You can't build the new energy future, including electric cars, wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, etc, without these industries.

D

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Interesting news from Ford Europe, rather than killing off the S-Max and Galaxy MPVs,
Ford has quietly released hybrid versions of both, effectively turning both into Ford
versions of a Prius. I wonder if they'll try them in Australia, couldn't hurt.

https://redirect.viglink.com/?format...ric-and-contin...

I saw this posted on the ford internal website last week. It was a surprise as i thought production had stopped on both of these. Or was being wound down.