Vfacts September 2019

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by jpd80

There's a whole bunch of people out there buying second hand German luxury vehicles
at relatively cheap prices but they haven't cottoned on to why the price is so cheap.
Sooner or later, something expensive will eventually go ding and chances are that an
extended warranty will not cover it.

Problem is that there are a few people that have good fortune and carry their vehicles
for long periods without a hitch, they tell their friends and they try it only to discover
all kinds of problems bite them in the backside.

I've been looking at those German Luxury Vehicles so some time now.
In particular one that will do the job of both the vehicles I own
If I wasn't so aware of why they become affordable, I would have pulled the trigger by now.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

but it does get you a full warranty and a replacement gearbox and back on the road.

So does the $35k Mitsubishi, however, if it can fail at 6 months it can fail at 8 years and who's covering the repairs then?

$25k buys a lot of gearboxes..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

So does the $35k Mitsubishi, however, if it can fail at 6 months it can fail at 8 years and who's covering the repairs then?

That particular fault in the Ranger gearbox is definitely a manufacturing defect,
they either fail early or not at all.

$25k buys a lot of gearboxes..

I don't know any vehicle buyer that would rationalize a saving that way,
most people would consider that lower price as a sign to sell the vehicle
earlier and take the win, yeah?
Eight years time, what's the value on a $35k Triton, $8K-10K?
Are you going to put, $6K, $7K, $8K into it or just write it off?

and so it goes for second hand buyers, if it costs say $18K to buy and then,
suffers a big expense, they gotta think hard what their next move will be..

[jpd80]

On another note,
American trans experts are finding lots of drivability issues with later 10R and 8F
stem from the adaptive learning, clear that out and they mostly come good.

[simon varley]

honestly - most people don't think this through anything close to the depth you guys are. it's price, price, price and that's why the Korean cars sell. We are a bunch of enthusiasts, and I don't think we can really, deep down, understand why anyone would chose what we consider a pos, over a 'nice' car.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by simon varley

honestly - most people don't think this through anything close to the depth you guys are. it's price, price, price and that's why the Korean cars sell. We are a bunch of enthusiasts, and I don't think we can really, deep down, understand why anyone would chose what we consider a pos, over a 'nice' car.

It's interesting that you could buy any of the popular Asian cars /SUVs and take
a risk on it lasting a long time without any major expenses disturbing the force.
Their reputations and reliability go way beyond their relatively lower prices.

I don't think 4x4 pick up buyers have that same kind of cushion of reliability,
expensive earlier failures are happening more frequently than used to be the case.
It would be wise not to tempt fate outside the warranty period and risk getting
stuck with a very expensive repair on an older pickup that's just not worth it.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by simon varley

honestly - most people don't think this through anything close to the depth you guys are. it's price, price, price and that's why the Korean cars sell. We are a bunch of enthusiasts, and I don't think we can really, deep down, understand why anyone would chose what we consider a pos, over a 'nice' car.

So true, I drive to work and back past the same Budget rental yard twice a day for the last 19 years. The utes they hire out are what they source at the cheapest price when they decide to change them over, nothing about long term reliability reputations, better dealer support, best driving dynamics or tech or safety features...hence they've never used the same brand twice in a row as the next seller tries harder to win the business, never bought Rangers (price) only the bottom spec 4x2 Hilux twice in those 19 years and today they are Tritons and one Nissan....although they have never bought anything Chinese yet, sticking only to the Japanese brands.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by simon varley

honestly - most people don't think this through anything close to the depth you guys are. it's price, price, price and that's why the Korean cars sell. We are a bunch of enthusiasts, and I don't think we can really, deep down, understand why anyone would chose what we consider a pos, over a 'nice' car.

Spot on. For most people price is all that matters.

Something that needs to be pointed out though is that Fords move to increase small car pricing with the Focus is starting to be adopted with competitors now. The days of 19k small cars is largely gone. The RRP of Corolla's, Mazda 3's etc has gone to the 23-24k area. With the fall in the dollar, and manufacturers looking to shore up profit margins they are all creeping the entry prices up.

Ford just went too far by deleting the entry point model and starting off with the mid spec Trend. But profit is all they care about which I don't completely follow. Surely a base spec car, even if it doesn't make much, if any profit, could still be used as a leading price point to get people in the door and bump up some sales numbers? I'd love to know the full story as to why the Ambiente Focus was homologated and a few hundred made it here before they decided to not sell it anymore. Drop in the aussie dollar maybe?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Spot on. For most people price is all that matters.

Something that needs to be pointed out though is that Fords move to increase small car pricing with the Focus is starting to be adopted with competitors now. The days of 19k small cars is largely gone. The RRP of Corolla's, Mazda 3's etc has gone to the 23-24k area. With the fall in the dollar, and manufacturers looking to shore up profit margins they are all creeping the entry prices up.

Ford just went too far by deleting the entry point model and starting off with the mid spec Trend. But profit is all they care about which I don't completely follow. Surely a base spec car, even if it doesn't make much, if any profit, could still be used as a leading price point to get people in the door and bump up some sales numbers? I'd love to know the full story as to why the Ambiente Focus was homologated and a few hundred made it here before they decided to not sell it anymore. Drop in the aussie dollar maybe?

No, it goes back to Hackett's targets for profit as percentage of revenue.
If you carry more "break even" sales to increase total revenue then,
your profit percentage drops......(it's a real mind game that many can't cope with)

If they only sell more profitable models, sales and total revenue drops
which plays dreadfully in the press but the bean counters absolutely
love that the company made a high profit percentage by doing less,
selling less and expending less resources...(again, a real mind game)

Some days, you just wish they'd bind and gag the accountants and just
take a chance on good hunches with better product decisions...

The worst part of Ford profitability plan is that it shuts out dealers from
making a lot more sales and getting more vehicles to service...

[BENT_8]

Corolla has fallen down the ladder, whereas, the Cerato has gained to within 200 in September, unheard of.
People are caring less and less about brand snobbery and more about weekly repayments.

Bad time to be asking for more.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

No, it goes back to Hackett's targets for profit as percentage of revenue.
If you carry more "break even" sales to increase total revenue then,
your profit percentage drops......(it's a real mind game that many can't cope with)

If they only sell more profitable models, sales and total revenue drops
which plays dreadfully in the press but the bean counters absolutely
love that the company made a high profit percentage by doing less,
selling less and expending less resources...(again, a real mind game)

Some days, you just wish they'd bind and gag the accountants and just
take a chance on good hunches with better product decisions...

The worst part of Ford profitability plan is that it shuts out dealers from
making a lot more sales and getting more vehicles to service...

This is ALL about share price and Wall Street.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Corolla has fallen down the ladder, whereas, the Cerato has gained to within 200 in September, unheard of.
People are caring less and less about brand snobbery and more about weekly repayments.

Bad time to be asking for more.

More like rental car companies are moving away from corolla to cerato to cut costs.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Corolla has fallen down the ladder, whereas, the Cerato has gained to within 200 in September, unheard of.
People are caring less and less about brand snobbery and more about weekly repayments.

Bad time to be asking for more.

Oh what a feeling....

I thought it was less about brand snobbery and more about Toyota's proven reliability
but then, I guess Kia also has that in spades too.....

Was Toyota asking more?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

This is ALL about share price and Wall Street.

I don't know why they waste so much time trying to please wall street. Rake in billions of dollars of profits every year and they still give them no love. Doesn't matter what they do, it will never be good enough.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I don't know why they waste so much time trying to please wall street. Rake in billions of dollars of profits every year and they still give them no love. Doesn't matter what they do, it will never be good enough.

It would be an interesting question..are the senior execs given higher bonuses if the share price rises 20-30% or if profit rises 20-30%?

I'm no economic professor however I reckon it's easier to manipulate a share price than manipulate profit as revenue is initially required before the accountants can manipulate the profit numbers with "creative accounting" and you can get caught out if you fudge these numbers as they need to be audited, whereas a couple of whispers, a few deal announcements, a bit of share play and suddenly your share price can take off on conjecture alone......

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Oh what a feeling....

I thought it was less about brand snobbery and more about Toyota's proven reliability
but then, I guess Kia also has that in spades too.....

Was Toyota asking more?

The Kia is cheaper and has a 7yr warranty, peace of mind at a reduced rate, what's not to like if its just a shopping trolley.

Yes, the new Corolla is dearer I believe, they want $27k for a entry level manual Ascent sport on driveaway.
The Cerato sport which is mid spec is $22k driveaway with entry level from $20.5k driveaway.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

The Kia is cheaper and has a 7yr warranty, peace of mind at a reduced rate, what's not to like if its just a shopping trolley.

Yes, the new Corolla is dearer I believe, they want $27k for a entry level manual Ascent sport on driveaway.
The Cerato sport which is mid spec is $22k driveaway with entry level from $20.5k driveaway.

and this is probably how cars will go as manufacturers move to higher profit SUVs,
Toyota still making good coin out of Corolla but yes, Hyundai I30 and Kia Cerato
have it surrounded.

This segment is now all about the lowest monthly payment, hard to have a discussion
when buyers in this segment are the ones most under the pump with economic stress,
more on monthly payments equals more financial stress/not meeting other payments.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

This segment is now all about the lowest monthly payment, hard to have a discussion

more on monthly payments equals more financial stress/not meeting other payments.

Which is what I suggested in post #160, buyers aren't interested in paying $30k for a hatchback because it carries a certain badge when they can get warrantied peace of mind at a 3rd of the price from another.

That's why KIA is the only manufacturer on the up every month, that and its now ok to be seen in one.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Which is what I suggested in post #160, buyers aren't interested in paying $30k for a hatchback because it carries a certain badge when they can get warrantied peace of mind at a 3rd of the price from another.

That's why KIA is the only manufacturer on the up every month, that and its now ok to be seen in one.

And from Post 10,

In no way am I trying to defend Ford's pricing, it's just something in their corporate
blood now that they won't sell lots of cheap base models just to make sales look good.

Personally, I think the sweet spot for them is somewhere in the middle.
At the moment I think all of Ford's starting prices are about $6K too high...
They're trying to factor in Euro like prices here and it's not working.

The scary part is I looked up the Ford UK website and the drive away price
on a Zeted Focus there was just under 20,000 pounds....Escape was 35,000 pounds
sux to live there.

[vztrt]

I always laugh at these threads. People think the sales numbers are just private buyers.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

I always laugh at these threads. People think the sales numbers are just private buyers.

We also have zero idea of trim mix, people just assume that every vehicle sold is the base version
when in fact the volume selling trim could be the second or third trim.

We just had an example of Corolla with a starting price of $27K up against Cerato with
a starting price roughly $6K less but assured that the most popular model was ~$23k.

Unless we're privy to the actual sales mix it's really hard to know who exactly buys what
and how much they actually pay, some assume that big jumps in sales are either discounts
or delivery of fleet orders, again we have no real colour on that save for some rare
insider heads up...these days, fleet sales tend to be the same trim as retail cars
in order to preserve good residual values. Most of those orders get bugger all discount
over a retail buyer discount as there's just no fat on the numbers anymore.

ZB Commodore sales numbers were propped up by Holden changing out its own fleet
on at least two occasions in the past 18 months. Imagine what that does to ZB residual values.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

We just had an example of Corolla with a starting price of $27K up against Cerato with
a starting price roughly $6K less but assured that the most popular model was ~$23k.

$22.5k, $4.5k under the entry level Corolla, that's assuming the base model Corolla is their best seller, comparing it to the SX and adding auto and safety to the Cerato still leaves a $6k margin.
If I was looking to spend $32k on a mid spec corolla i'd be getting the 150kw Cerato GT.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

$22.5k, $4.5k under the entry level Corolla, that's assuming the base model Corolla is their best seller, comparing it to the SX and adding auto and safety to the Cerato still leaves a $6k margin.
If I was looking to spend $32k on a mid spec corolla i'd be getting the 150kw Cerato GT.

Which really is on line with Focus ST-Line hatch, the 134KWs and 240nms are are a little less
but enough in front of the Corolla, the fun factor is most definitly there....

For my money, the base Trend Focus for about $3K less is probably enough, Hatch,
same engine and 8-speed auto all adds up to a nice package and German build quality as well.

Can't help wondering that Focus is suffering big time for Powershift public judgement
against Ford, even though they shifted off it back in 2015, the bad air is still following Focus.

[au2000]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Can't help wondering that Focus is suffering big time for Powershift public judgement
against Ford, even though they shifted off it back in 2015, the bad air is still following Focus.

I'd suggest it's more that ford itself is suffering over it's public image of how it's handled it, they have given consumers no faith they will back their products if there's a fault, that stain will be with them for awhile

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Can't help wondering that Focus is suffering big time for Powershift public judgement
against Ford, even though they shifted off it back in 2015, the bad air is still following Focus.

That's how I see it too, as I've said before, the current range is probably worthy of asking a premium, but I think people are still hesitant to trust the brand.

Ford should put me in charge for a while, first order would be say YES to every complaint and warranty concern.
No good offering unlimited km warranties if the target market thinks you'll not honour it.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by au2000

I'd suggest it's more that ford itself is suffering over it's public image of how it's handled it, they have given consumers no faith they will back their products if there's a fault, that stain will be with them for awhile

Yep, and as I said, no good offering big warranties if the punters think its all BS, the best thing you can do is show them that you're fair dinkum by fixing **** without making the punter feel like they're doing them a favour.

When I took my KIA in for its complimentary service they asked me if I needed anything taken care of, left me wondering how a company can have that attitude towards an $18k item when we hear horror stories on cars worth 2 and 3 times that from others, not necessarily Ford products.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Yep, and as I said, no good offering big warranties if the punters think its all BS, the best thing you can do is show them that you're fair dinkum by fixing **** without making the punter feel like they're doing them a favour.

When I took my KIA in for its complimentary service they asked me if I needed anything taken care of, left me wondering how a company can have that attitude towards an $18k item when we hear horror stories on cars worth 2 and 3 times that from others, not necessarily Ford products.

Maybe I've been doing something wrong however I've always been asked if I need anything done at the first complimentary/peace of mind service for our BA, FG, and 2 Territorys and Transit Custom and after routine servicing had a follow up call a day or two later to see if all was good post service.

[BLACKVE]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

More like rental car companies are moving away from corolla to cerato to cut costs.

althought purchase price comes in to it its the end of lease sale $$$ that make the beancounters happy.

Hence corolla rental cars might cost more at purchse but bigger $$$ at sale.

I believe boral and buying just 3.2 rangers now as the resale is so much better then the 2.2s

[russellw]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Which is what I suggested in post #160, buyers aren't interested in paying $30k for a hatchback because it carries a certain badge when they can get warrantied peace of mind at a 3rd of the price from another.

That's why KIA is the only manufacturer on the up every month, that and its now ok to be seen in one.

Almost correct. MG and Skoda (at opposite ends of the price spectrum) have also grown volume and market share every month this year.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by russellw

Almost correct. MG and Skoda (at opposite ends of the price spectrum) have also grown volume and market share every month this year.

Sorry Russ, I was focussing on those in the top 10 but I'm not surprised with MG as those 3's are a lot of shopping trolley for $15k drive away