vFacts October 2019

[jpd80]

Compare the two exit strategies,
Ford transitions as many Falcon and Territory buyers as possible to Ranger and Mustang
FGX Falcon bows out a champion nameplate that is respectfully retired by Ford.

Holden refuses to give up Commodore name or transition buyers to other products
and expects ZB to sell in unrealistic numbers. Without local Commodore, sales of
other Holden models collapse........

Obviously, Holden misread the market, it misread the mood of buyers and basically
convinced itself out of business...

Surely, there was a better way than what transpired.
.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Compare the two exit strategies,
Ford transitions as many Falcon and Territory buyers as possible to Ranger and Mustang
FGX Falcon bows out a champion nameplate that is respectfully retired by Ford.

Holden refuses to give up Commodore name or transition buyers to other products
and expects ZB to sell in unrealistic numbers. Without local Commodore, sales of
other Holden models collapse........

Obviously, Holden misread the market, it misread the mood of buyers and basically
convinced itself out of business...

Surely, there was a better way than what transpired.
.

Holden, or the bloke they left in charge who over estimated the numbers and was promptly moved on?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

While I can fully understand and sympathise on how this relates to you, do you remember that Holden came within and inch of being dumped into the "bad" assests of GM when they were filing for Chapter 11 in the US. If that had of gone through then it was all gone long before the final decision to close years later.

IIRC, Holden also couldn't get it's local banks to agree to keep it's line of credit open until the government offered a form of guarantee. There was more background to this than we all probably know. Even in Ford's case the FG-X came about through some last minute wheeling and dealing between Ford, the Vic government and the Aust. government otherwise the plug was being pulled even earlier. Ford closed first only because it's parent company got to that decision point earlier than it's competitors. Toyota was mainly exporting it's production so slightly different criteria as it wasn't building a vehicle with no real exports like Ford and Holden. In fact with today's Aust dollar I wonder if that Toyota decision would stand.

One other thing, Holden was receiving approx. double the incentives, grants etc as Ford and Toyota in the same time period with the car company's required to spend a double or triple multiple (I can't remember which) to maintain receiving the various government "industry support". As I said there was far more to the decisions than we will ever know.

You have to look at the bigger picture though, Holden had just invested $1b for an entirely new car in the VE which came off the back of some of the most profitable years in history when they we're running 3 shifts and pumping out 100k units a year, not too many would have predicted the GFC or a complete change in buying trends in such a short period of time.
The old car was well and truly past its use by date, so you can't blame them for looking long term.
Falcon remained largely untouched for almost 20yrs by the time it shut shop in comparison.

[Sprintey]

I remember well the words of this, fellow for want of a less polite name, at the time:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/382691/...-says-gm-exec/

“Of course you imagine that you need to continue with something like that, but the world obviously is changing and the eight-cylinder period is coming to an end.

“These kind of traditional powertrains, I know they are very attractive and very charming and I like the sound of a V8 as well so that it has a charming character, but the times are honestly over.”

Mustang V8, Ram V8, V8 Cruiser, V8 Patrol, your guys will bring Camaro and Corvette?

Yep the fans embraced downsizing and downsized your entire Australian subsidiary. I wonder if there were any corporate consequences for this disasterous policy? Probably not, there never is anymore.

This quote's a good one too:

“Let me just tell you, that the leadership of our company – Mark Reuss was the managing director of Holden, he completely understands the market,” Oppenheiser said.

from:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/428313/...an-on-its-way/

It's the dictating to your customers what they like, big no-no. And some of us knew what would happen:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/407246/...h-in-december/

So now the dual cab ute has replaced the sedan as the 3 box mainseller in Australia. Diesel has had, well, problems for many. Smooth V6 petrol autos will come to the things (maybe with a hybrid), and Australia will be back where it likes to be: big 3 box car with torquey petrol/auto combination. Only this time with a bit more clearance, and a ladder frame chassis like in the golden age of the 1940s and 1950s, and sadly imported rather than created here.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

You have to look at the bigger picture though, Holden had just invested $1b for an entirely new car in the VE which came off the back of some of the most profitable years in history when they we're running 3 shifts and pumping out 100k units a year, not too many would have predicted the GFC or a complete change in buying trends in such a short period of time.
The old car was well and truly past its use by date, so you can't blame them for looking long term.
Falcon remained largely untouched for almost 20yrs by the time it shut shop in comparison.

Reasonable comments too...plus don't get me wrong, I see NO issue with government "support" as every other country does the same in different ways..eg Thailand sets up a FTA with us and promtly kills Territory imports by a engine capacity "levy" so that it costs the same as a BMW X5. I think a 3:1 deal was great, "Gov give you some and you put in the rest and Gov dosen't have to pay unemployment benefits or retraining programes or have a sea of "employment" companies pop up that make their owners very rich....

PS I take upbridge at the "largely untouched" Falcon comment but then again I know the people who "did nothing" on it from 1996 to 2016, lol....

[Sprintey]

Further, reading the comments of that first article I posted, how could corporate management get it so wrong, and yet the fans correctly predicted what would happen, 4 years ago?

"The Insignia is no substitute for the Commodore and looses out in every comparison test it has ever entered in Europe against other cars. Doe her think it's suddenly going to be better in Australia? I predict Australians will not buy the Insignia in great numbers. Where Holden was always in the top 3 before the closure announcement, you will see Holden struggle to make the top 10 if that. Eventually they will kill off the brand and reintroduce Chevrolet. But unless they sell an affordable RWD V8 model like the Camaro as a hero car to get people into the door and young petrol heads to aspire too, they will become a truly insignificant car brand in Australia. What a shame!"

Not a bad prediction so far...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Holden, or the bloke they left in charge who over estimated the numbers and was promptly moved on?

I think that he was just the fall guy for even bigger egos that threw Elizabeth under a bus and thought they could recover most of the sales with an import.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

PS I take upbridge at the "largely untouched" Falcon comment but then again I know the people who "did nothing" on it from 1996 to 2016, lol....

Sorry, obviously worded poorly, my point was that VF is not just a reskinned VT as an FG is to BA or even AU in reality, there's no doubt the Falcon had money and time spent on it, DOHC and IRS etc. but it wasn't an entirely new product as VE was to VZ apart from the alloytec.

Which is why I said in comparison.

[Bossxr8]

How many RHD markets do GM sell cars in now? Aus, NZ, Thailand and where else?

Not India, anywhere in Europe or South Africa. It will come to a point where GM will look at the numbers and say, we can't spend x amount of dollars making RHD versions of various models to sell to a couple of small markets. The writing is on the wall. It's inevitable. First sign of this coming to fruition is the decision to cancel new Colorado and just refresh the current one. Especially considering it's the highest seller they have, in the biggest, most important segment. That's very telling. It should be the model they are putting most work into.

The only reason Corvette got through is they promised it, and most of the work would have been done before Holden sank into the toilet. And being mid engined it would have been an easier process. Can't see how they got it over the line though, considering it will only sell in small numbers, considering the price. I reckon if they had to make the call today on wether to do RHD Corvette they wouldn't do it.

Time will tell.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Sorry, obviously worded poorly, my point was that VF is not just a reskinned VT as an FG is to BA or even AU in reality, there's no doubt the Falcon had money and time spent on it, DOHC and IRS etc. but it wasn't an entirely new product as VE was to VZ apart from the alloytec.

Which is why I said in comparison.

They still managed to spend close to $700 million on developing FG, shows how you can change everything and still end up with a car that looks similar to the older one. As nice as FG was perhaps it needed a little more aggressive styling than the softer euro kinetic.

On another note, zetas product envelope was to cover a large SUV with 120” wheelbase, presumably Chevy Traverse. What a shame that Commodore didn’t have its own “Territory”, I could imagine a ton more sales.

[anobserver]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Well in a former life I was a truck driver and a bit of our work was transporting parts from suppliers to Holdens and the talk on the back of Ford's announcement was that there was serious concern that the supply chain could survive on only two customers.

This is what happened.

The remaining three could have stayed, but the suppliers needed that at a mininum to stay viable.

From an external multinationals perspective, it was a no brainer. Oversupply of manufacturing in cheaper countries elsewhere vs old factories here that cranked out a small number of product in rhd (holden lhd pontiac g8s not withstanding)

Retooling for suvs doesnt seem to have been viable. So we all lose.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by anobserver

This is what happened.

The remaining three could have stayed, but the suppliers needed that at a mininum to stay viable.

From an external multinationals perspective, it was a no brainer. Oversupply of manufacturing in cheaper countries elsewhere vs old factories here that cranked out a small number of product in rhd (holden lhd pontiac g8s not withstanding)

Retooling for suvs doesnt seem to have been viable. So we all lose.

Viability is in the end a risk score, I know of a vehicle in another market that didn’t meet the business case viability but the chief overruled the accounts and renamed it something that is both desirable and sell like hot cakes.

Sometimes it’s as simple as pushing accounts aside and taking a calculated risk. It also makes me wonder how many times the logical has been ignored due to risk.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Sorry, obviously worded poorly, my point was that VF is not just a reskinned VT as an FG is to BA or even AU in reality, there's no doubt the Falcon had money and time spent on it, DOHC and IRS etc. but it wasn't an entirely new product as VE was to VZ apart from the alloytec.

Which is why I said in comparison.

All good..maybe Ford should have asked for the same scale of funding and it could have done the same as VE to VF, especially the tech..although I think they should have dumped Falcon earlier and gone and spent more on Territory...

[naddis01]

Getting back to Vfacts, I see the Mustang has dropped considerably in recent times. Is this a reflection of the increased price or has the novelty worn off?

Chrysler obviously isn't selling too many 300s to the police with only 25 for the month.

Most of the Chinese brands have seen an increase in sales despite the shrinking market. MG in particular doing well.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Getting back to Vfacts, I see the Mustang has dropped considerably in recent times. Is this a reflection of the increased price or has the novelty worn off?

Normal progression of a coupe. Goes well at the start and then fade off to small numbers.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Viability is in the end a risk score, I know of a vehicle in another market that didn’t meet the business case viability but the chief overruled the accounts and renamed it something that is both desirable and sell like hot cakes.

So you know the story of the Ssangyong Stavic!

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Getting back to Vfacts, I see the Mustang has dropped considerably in recent times. Is this a reflection of the increased price or has the novelty worn off?

Chrysler obviously isn't selling too many 300s to the police with only 25 for the month.

Most of the Chinese brands have seen an increase in sales despite the shrinking market. MG in particular doing well.

I think for Mustang those that wanted to buy one have and it needs enough of a change (whatever that might be) to drag more in going forward. I wonder if the sales are still consistant in the home market as that would quicken updates etc...

[Sprintey]

Small passenger car sales are going the way of medium passenger and large passenger:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/805822/...sales-plummet/

For Mazda, CX30 can't come quick enough.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Holden refuses to give up Commodore name or transition buyers to other products
and expects ZB to sell in unrealistic numbers. Without local Commodore, sales of
other Holden models collapse........

Obviously, Holden misread the market, it misread the mood of buyers and basically
convinced itself out of business...

Surely, there was a better way than what transpired.
.

Nope. Holden's arrogance would never allow it any other way.

My experiences both on a professional and personal level meant I could never be a Holden owner as I could never be one of "them". Although Falcons and Holdens were inanimate objects with both having strengths and flaws, the smugness of the Holden brand repulsed me.

[au2000]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I think for Mustang those that wanted to buy one have and it needs enough of a change (whatever that might be) to drag more in going forward. I wonder if the sales are still consistant in the home market as that would quicken updates etc...

Mustang is a aspirational vehicle for many, those that really wanted 1 and related to 1 got them at the start, for others of us like me who would like one, it's a one day thing, at work 4 guys went and brought the first ones out but only 1 other has brought the current model

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Viability is in the end a risk score, I know of a vehicle in another market that didn’t meet the business case viability but the chief overruled the accounts and renamed it something that is both desirable and sell like hot cakes.

Sometimes it’s as simple as pushing accounts aside and taking a calculated risk. It also makes me wonder how many times the logical has been ignored due to risk.

The problem with accounts department is they're risk adverse - thats the nature of their job and they're left unchecked, they try manage risk out of everything so they make a ton of decisions that look great on paper but hurt their customers and they'll just go elsewhere.

A good one in the parts game is cutting inventory and stock replenishment - good luck with your JIT operation when you have 90-120 day lead times ex Europe

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by au2000

Mustang is a aspirational vehicle for many, those that really wanted 1 and related to 1 got them at the start, for others of us like me who would like one, it's a one day thing, at work 4 guys went and brought the first ones out but only 1 other has brought the current model

Seriously though, if you look back at how many FPV V8s were sold in the past, 3,000 to 4,000 mustangs a year is still pretty good fishin’......

Not bad considering how many wrote it off saying Monaro didn’t work therefore Mustang won’t either

[XR Martin]

Why wasn't the Monaro a success?
It sold 12000 in 5 years, and was never intended to go beyond 2005.
Hell if the VE wasn't delayed it probably would have never eventuated in the first place.

[au2000]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Seriously though, if you look back at how many FPV V8s were sold in the past, 3,000 to 4,000 mustangs a year is still pretty good fishin’......

Not bad considering how many wrote it off saying Monaro didn’t work therefore Mustang won’t either

Don't know if many wrote it off, I don't doubt many including myself would have said it's initial sales of what 10,000 ish or so in the first year was more so a honeymoon period and that after awhile it's sales would settle to a more subdued number,

But I agree, 3 to 4 thousand a year without any competitor or other option, even some gm fans have jumped into a mustang as a alternative.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

So you know the story of the Ssangyong Stavic!

No different company but OK, let’s go with that. Sometimes it pays to take a calculated risk on a vehicle that should be a no brainer and just do it.

And seeing an account clutch their chest/heart gives executives a sense that they’re actually doing the right thing that others wouldn’t be game to, that’s when intuition and industry experience matter.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by au2000

Don't know if many wrote it off, I don't doubt many including myself would have said it's initial sales of what 10,000 ish or so in the first year was more so a honeymoon period and that after awhile it's sales would settle to a more subdued number,

But I agree, 3 to 4 thousand a year without any competitor or other option, even some gm fans have jumped into a mustang as a alternative.

It was more that Mustang wasn’t a “Falcon” a direct replacement for the car that had been lost. Some became stuck on the short comings, all the deficiencies that couldn’t match Falcon instead of seeing how many were open to giving it a go,

It’s not “our car” or not the perfect replacement but I do believe that a lot more embraced it than most were expecting... even Europe now sell barely 10,000 of them a year so that’s why I think not bad for our tiny market.

Next year, Ford is releasing a 5.0 V8 hybrid in Mustang and F150, I wonder if that Mustang variant wil come to us, it could curry a whole new group of customers wanting a guilt free V8 sports car

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I think for Mustang those that wanted to buy one have and it needs enough of a change (whatever that might be) to drag more in going forward. I wonder if the sales are still consistant in the home market as that would quicken updates etc...

Mustang sales in Nth America,can go from around 5,000 units per month & up to 8,000 units per month.(this is for YTD,2019) They go up & down like the tide.Chevrolet Camaro,from around 3,900 units & peaked @ 4,500 units later in the year.(YTD,2019)

[jpd80]

Last month, Camaro was down to 2,700 sales
If anything is looking shaking it’s Camaro

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Last month, Camaro was down to 2,700 sales
If anything is looking shaking it’s Camaro

The current model tanked. The previous model sold a lot better. I think a lot of that is down to the mailbox slot vision out of it. Heard a lot of people say you can't see anything out of it, the windows are so small, and they wouldn't buy one because of it. Turned a lot of potential buyers off.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The current model tanked. The previous model sold a lot better. I think a lot of that is down to the mailbox slot vision out of it. Heard a lot of people say you can't see anything out of it, the windows are so small, and they wouldn't buy one because of it. Turned a lot of potential buyers off.

Warning this will be lame....however.....it needs some "Transforming''...

Turns out one of my daughter's school friends had a parent working at Holden on secondment from GM and so had a different car basicially every blink of the eye, one day saw the Camaro with him and up until then I had seen them prior on TV in Hawaii 5O and the movies.....

first thought, it's bigger than I thought, second thought....to quote the Russian female newsreader from the old aussie tv comedy show ...."oh Boris you're so unattractive"