Vfacts March 2011

[vztrt]

Market insight: Mazda marches on and up

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...25786F00152767

Fast-start king Mazda triples first-quarter sales in a decade to edge out Ford

11 April 2011

By RON HAMMERTON

LEADING importer Mazda has tripled its first-quarter vehicle sales in a decade, not only outpacing its fellow fast-growing importers but, in 2011, local manufacturer Ford as well.

Year to date, Mazda Australia has sold 22,883 vehicles – 170 more than its one-time parent company Ford.

In 2001, Mazda sold just 7341 vehicles, compared with Ford’s 24,543.

Ford has fought back this year with its own 3.4 per cent sales revival, courtesy of growth in its imported vehicles, regaining third place from Mazda in March.

It also has several new models in the pipeline this year, starting with Territory in the next few weeks, and an all-new Focus small car and Ranger ute later in the year.

However, locally made cars from Ford and its fellow local car manufacturers, Holden and Toyota, are under a long and unrelenting siege from a flock of importers who are enjoying advantageous exchange rates and historically low import tariffs.

Nissan has shown renewed vigour in the past year – up 19.3 per cent year on year – while Hyundai – despite a 5.0 per cent sales slip YTD – has doubled its first-quarter volumes in a decade.

But, as the accompanying graph shows, the most consistent first-quarter growth among the importers has been shown by the fast-start specialist, Mazda.

Its strong private buyer market representation always gets it off to a good start in January, when fleets are generally still snoozing. This gives it a running start compared with brands such as Ford.

In January this year, Mazda secured a record 9.8 per cent market share, with Ford on just 8.7 per cent. In March, Mazda’s monthly share had eased to 8.6 per cent, while Ford’s had recovered to 9.3 per cent.

Nevertheless, Mazda’s March result of 8039 units was a record, bettering its March 2008 result by 474 vehicles.

For the first time, Mazda breasted the end-of-first-quarter tape ahead of Ford with a share of 9.2 per cent to Ford’s 9.1 to claim third place behind Toyota and Holden.

The question will be whether Ford’s new Territory and imported range can maintain its new-found momentum to make up for a massive slide in Falcon sales, which are down almost 40 per cent this year.

While a much-needed facelift for Falcon is due to arrive in September or November, the potentially volume-driving four-cylinder engine is now not due until early 2012.

This year, Mazda sales have been led by its top-selling Mazda3 small car, which is, after three months of the year, the number one seller in the land, shading the long-time leader, Holden’s Commodore, 11,159 units to 10,644.

The Mazda3 has been well-supported by rising demand for its baby sister, the Mazda2, sales of which have rocketed 35.4 per cent to 4475 vehicles.

Like Ford and its Ranger ute, Mazda has also been running out its one-tonne BT-50 at fire-sale prices ahead of the arrival of the all-new model later this year, with a resultant 34.7 per cent sales boost in the first three months of 2011.

Longer term, Mazda is looking forward to the arrival of its much-hyped Sky Activ engine, transmission and chassis technologies, starting with engines in a revised Mazda3 later this year.

That is likely to be followed in 2012 by the all-new CX-5 – based on the Minagi compact SUV shown at the Geneva motor show – as well as the new-generation Mazda6. Both of these models are expected to get the full suite of Sky Activ goodies.

The need for a Mazda6 replacement is starting to be felt, with sales this year sagging 20.9 per cent. Part of the reason could be heavy advertising of the related Ford Mondeo, sales of which are up 44 per cent, edging the Mazda6 out of second place in the medium segment behind the Toyota Camry so far this year.

Ultimately, Mazda’s Sky Activ technologies will be spread across the range, with class-leading diesels, called Sky D, in the armoury under the ‘Sustainable Zoom-Zoom’ banner.

Test drives of Sky Activ vehicles to date have been positive, putting rival car companies on notice.

[phillyc]

Obviously early days, just Q1/2011, but with Mazda3 and Corolla nipping at the Commodore's heels and potentially outselling Commodore this year. What are peoples thoughts on whether having the number 1 taken from Commodore is a good thing for Falcon?

I think it's a double edge sword, but with more upside than downside.

Upside: Having the Commodore as advertised as being the number 1 seller is a hard thing for Falcon to counteract. People are sheep and are keen to buy number 1. Equating best seller for best car. Not true obviously. So, perhaps they could now more evenly judge the merits of each car. With Falcon being the better car, that could be a good thing.

Downside: Does this show the large cars as (even) less relevant to the masses? So, why should be even look there when a Mazda3 or a Mondeo will do what we want?

[Road_Warrior]

Problem is Philly, the sheeple don't know that the Falcon is the 'better' car because it doesn't get any coverage.

The Commodore's sales volumes (unless they are artificially inflated) demonstrate there is still a strong market for large RWD cars, but that market is much smaller now. Personally I think that people buy these cars for a specific reason, i.e. they want a RWD car.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Problem is Philly, the sheeple don't know that the Falcon is the 'better' car because it doesn't get any coverage.

The Commodore's sales volumes (unless they are artificially inflated) demonstrate there is still a strong market for large RWD cars, but that market is much smaller now. Personally I think that people buy these cars for a specific reason, i.e. they want a RWD car.

Well, that is what i'm wondering. Is it that it doesn't get any coverage because Commodore is the long time No.1 seller? With Commodore knocked off it's perch (expect some heavy V8 discounting deals later in the year to keep Commodore on top though) would that help level the playing field to a lesser slope?

[Polyal]

Its not often, other than people who really enjoy driving, you hear someone specifically say they want RWD.

I think falcon/commies ride on the belief/tradition that they are more practical all rounders and can handle harsher conditions.

Im talking towing boats, caravans, going over rough roads for long distances, cheaper to maintain etc...

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by phillyc

Well, that is what i'm wondering. Is it that it doesn't get any coverage because Commodore is the long time No.1 seller? With Commodore knocked off it's perch (expect some heavy V8 discounting deals later in the year to keep Commodore on top though) would that help level the playing field to a lesser slope?

Nah it's got nothing to do with the Commodore and everything to do with Ford not giving it the coverage. However we do not know what sort of factory or dealer incentives Holden are providing to move their cars also.

[bobthebilda]

I think most people would think that the commodore coming in at No. 1 each year, is just a blip on the "government purchasing policy" radar. To get a fairer picture of Australian Car sales, its probably best to look at our 7th state (New Zealand). March sales, the commodore didnt even come in the top 5, and on a per capita basis they sell about 1/4 of the commodores there than they do in Australias other 6 states (and 2 territories).

Pos Model Mar %
1 Toyota Hilux 514 6.2%
2 Toyota Corolla 355 4.3%
3 Suzuki Swift 307 3.7%
4 Nissan Navara 270 3.3%
5 Toyota Yaris 243 2.9%

[Ford_The_Win]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I think most people would think that the commodore coming in at No. 1 each year, is just a blip on the "government purchasing policy" radar. To get a fairer picture of Australian Car sales, its probably best to look at our 7th state (New Zealand). March sales, the commodore didnt even come in the top 5, and on a per capita basis they sell about 1/4 of the commodores there than they do in Australias other 6 states (and 2 territories).

If I remember rightly, the Falcon has almost always outsold the Commodore in New Zealand. But both sell in much smaller proportions compared to Australia.

[dimka100]

I think that what most people do not realise it how much the buyers demographic has changed over the last 20 years …

In the past majority of the new car market was mostly purchased by what I call the Australian born population. These are people who were born in this country and mostly live by the Australian way of life. I.e. they prefer larger cars, frequently travel long distances, have decent size families, have boats/caravans to tow, and lastly support or at least do not mind the local manufactured cars.

Now days majority of the new car market is made up of people who recently migrated to Australia, primarily such people come from Asia and they have a very different view about cars/brands/life requirements and so forth. To them Toyota is a no brainer, it is not because Toyota makes smaller or fuel efficient cars, but simply the fact that these people have always admired the Toyota brand since their childhood and hence that is the only brand they really want when it comes to normal affordable cars. This is why Toyota has been selling steadily more and more cars in Australia, they are merely capitalising on the current buyers market preferences, rather than actually supplying a “better” product.

You also have more people migrating now from Europe and the UK, especially after the GFC that has hit them really really hard. In my line of work I started meeting these people all the time now, basically they all say the same thing, getting a job in the UK has become extremely difficult, they migrate to Australia cause they easily get a well paid job and can afford a nice and relaxing lifestyle. Again people from EU would mostly prefer the cars they are used to … and again they are not Falcons or Commodores.

Personally I see the sales of Falcons and Commodores slowly decline as time passes by … and they only way I see them survive over the long term is by moving into more of a niche market and starting to target people who want more than just a car for transportation.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by dimka100

I think that what most people do not realise it how much the buyers demographic has changed over the last 20 years …

In the past majority of the new car market was mostly purchased by what I call the Australian born population. These are people who were born in this country and mostly live by the Australian way of life. I.e. they prefer larger cars, frequently travel long distances, have decent size families, have boats/caravans to tow, and lastly support or at least do not mind the local manufactured cars.

Now days majority of the new car market is made up of people who recently migrated to Australia, primarily such people come from Asia and they have a very different view about cars/brands/life requirements and so forth. To them Toyota is a no brainer, it is not because Toyota makes smaller or fuel efficient cars, but simply the fact that these people have always admired the Toyota brand since their childhood and hence that is the only brand they really want when it comes to normal affordable cars. This is why Toyota has been selling steadily more and more cars in Australia, they are merely capitalising on the current buyers market preferences, rather than actually supplying a “better” product.

You also have more people migrating now from Europe and the UK, especially after the GFC that has hit them really really hard. In my line of work I started meeting these people all the time now, basically they all say the same thing, getting a job in the UK has become extremely difficult, they migrate to Australia cause they easily get a well paid job and can afford a nice and relaxing lifestyle. Again people from EU would mostly prefer the cars they are used to … and again they are not Falcons or Commodores.

Personally I see the sales of Falcons and Commodores slowly decline as time passes by … and they only way I see them survive over the long term is by moving into more of a niche market and starting to target people who want more than just a car for transportation.

I can't say I agree with this.
I am more inclined to say that it is more to do with the introduction of the SUV and other such vehicles that has swayed buyers.
These vehicles along with 4WD becoming more of a "luxury" vehicle have made the large sedan a more of a "niche" vehicle.
SUVs like the Territory & the Kluger can easily perform the same functions as a sedan and more (more carry space, seat more people, etc).
Then there is the cost of fuel plus the fact small cars are not so small anymore. Most will easily be able to carry a family of four and their shopping quite easily. Let's not forget the medium range with the likes of the Accord, Camry, 6 and the Mondeo.

[Road_Warrior]

Yeah de-regulation of the motor vehicle market through tariff reduction and ADR's being brought into parity with overseas standards has had a telling effect. The Button Plan was just the start.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by ray38l

Toyota sell heaps of cars due to the ageing population imo. Old people want bland cars and that's Toyota's specialty.

More like they give generous fleet discounts and sell lots of cars to government and mining fleet operators.

[ray38l]

Toyota sell heaps of cars due to the ageing population imo. Old people want bland cars and that's Toyota's specialty.

[csv8]

Originally Posted by ray38l

Toyota sell heaps of cars due to the ageing population imo. Old people want bland cars and that's Toyota's specialty.

Not this black duck...

[Ford_The_Win]

Originally Posted by ray38l

Toyota sell heaps of cars due to the ageing population imo. Old people want bland cars and that's Toyota's specialty.

I think it has more to do with making ultra-reliable and efficient pickups and compact cars up until recently?

[Windsor220]

Toyota built up a name for reliabilty through the 80s and 90s but lately it has turned out they are just like everyone else and corrupt as any manufacturer going around.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Windsor220

Toyota built up a name for reliabilty through the 80s and 90s but lately it has turned out they are just like everyone else and corrupt as any manufacturer going around.

And for all of that they are still go close to outselling Ford and Holden combined.
Says a lot about Ford and Holden's recognition in the community doesn't it...

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by dimka100

I think that what most people do not realise it how much the buyers demographic has changed over the last 20 years …

Yes large cars have been declining while SUV's and small cars are doing well.

[prydey]

many read 'decline' as 'no market' too, which isn't really true. there is still a market for a large car. its just smaller than 10 years ago.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And for all of that they are still go close to outselling Ford and Holden combined.
Says a lot about Ford and Holden's recognition in the community doesn't it...

Toyota were well placed for the small car, but more importantly SUV & Ute booms.

They had recognised nameplates in Landcruiser & Hilux. They then diversified within those segments too as time marched on.

As Landcruiser chased markets further up the tree, they kept the utilitarian Landcruiser as they introduced the 80 series with the 4.5L straight six motor in the mid 90s.

'Landcruiser Prado' was introduced to basically fill the cheaper hardcore void.

Rav4 was probably the first real softroader. It was innovation by Toyota. Something they don't normally do.

As that market was created and began to explode, they introduced essentially a larger version based off Camry platform. The Highlander/Kluger.

So, now they Hilux 4x2 and 4x4 in all the variants with a much bigger delineation between them for the ute market. But they have Landcruiser (old and new), Prado, Kluger and RAV4. Add in Corolla and Camry and Toyota have well known competitors in ALL major market segments. To use an American term. They are full-line automakers.

Most Toyota products offer terrible / sub par driving experiences and do not offer great value as well as not being as reliable as they once were. But, the above are reasons why they are as big as they are here in Australia.

I don't know how many people recall this. But when GMHolden was last the market leader here in Australia when the VT was selling gangbusters, their CEO was talking of building market share from 19-20% to 25% or more. The point is they were relying almost solely on Commodore/Statesman to deliver that share. GMHolden were largely a one trick pony. Much like Ford was with Falcon until Territory came along.

Thankfully for Ford, who is the only 'local' to have actually increased sales this year (Q1/2011), it is because the imported models are now gaining traction.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And for all of that they are still go close to outselling Ford and Holden combined.
Says a lot about Ford and Holden's recognition in the community doesn't it...

It's only their large range of commercial vehicles and 4wd's that gives them such a sales advantage. Sales of their passenger range doesn't exactly set the world on fire. Aurion is struggling, Camry isn't anything to write home about, Corolla/Yaris are rental hacks and sales are artificially high at the moment due to the low interest finance deals.
If Toyota had the same amount of vehicles in their range as Ford/Holden they would be sitting in 3rd place without a doubt.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by stevz

It's only their large range of commercial vehicles and 4wd's that gives them such a sales advantage. Sales of their passenger range doesn't exactly set the world on fire. Aurion is struggling, Camry isn't anything to write home about, Corolla/Yaris are rental hacks and sales are artificially high at the moment due to the low interest finance deals.
If Toyota had the same amount of vehicles in their range as Ford/Holden they would be sitting in 3rd place without a doubt.

A sale is still a sale. Do we discount Ranger and ute sales from Ford because their commercial?

Aurion and Camry sales could be combined, really the only difference between the two is the engine, one a six and one a four. Much like the Falcon, one a six, one an eight.

Soooo how many Fords are "rental hacks" as well? Fair few Focus were i'd imagine.

Nothing wrong with low interest deals. Aren't XR6s selling around 35k now? That's a big incentive...

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Wretched

A sale is still a sale. Nothing wrong with low interest deals. Aren't XR6s selling around 35k now? That's a big incentive...

I sent an email to Ford about 2 weeks ago. If they would've offered a 3.9% finance deal or similar on FG XR6 I would buy / bought new. Instead, yesterday I bought an optioned up one private owner July 2008 FG XR6.

[vztrt]

Aren't the Toyota low finance on the full RRP of the vehicle?

Pretty sure 9 odd % finance on a 35k Falcon is better then 3.5% on a 44k Falcon.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Aren't the Toyota low finance on the full RRP of the vehicle?

Was only selected stock / models. Basically, whatever hadn't been selling especially well within that model got the cheap finance and it was still off a discounted price. Though probably not as good as you could negotiate with no such finance option.

Originally Posted by vztrt

Pretty sure 9 odd % finance on a 35k Falcon is better then 3.5% on a 44k Falcon

Yes. But my point is that there is a backlog of unsold 2010 and 2011 cars. Cheap finance has proven to work (clear out stock / boost sales) many times in the past and recently with Toyota.

It would be better from a resale point of view to not lower the XR6 driveaway pricing any further. A 35k driveaway price and full finance cost (my rate of 7.1%) or 36k at 3.9%. The latter is much more appealing to more people. Yet it preserves more resale for those who have already bought.

Heck, Mercedes are currently doing a 'no interest' finance deal on the C Class. 'Half now, half later. No regrets' Yes, they have a much higher margin.

[vztrt]

Ah I thought it was under the impression it was full RRP for low finanace.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by stevz

If Toyota had the same amount of vehicles in their range as Ford/Holden....

Believe me, a lot of people wish Toyota was that inept..........

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts........

[russellw]

The first of our graphical data sets has now been uploaded into the Tech portal.

Cheers
Russ

[dimka100]

Originally Posted by phillyc

I sent an email to Ford about 2 weeks ago. If they would've offered a 3.9% finance deal or similar on FG XR6 I would buy / bought new. Instead, yesterday I bought an optioned up one private owner July 2008 FG XR6.

How much was the new FG XR6? The base XR6 models cost about 30 – 32K as far as I understand.

I think the resale value of the FG has totally plummeted considering the discounts Ford is offering on these cars. Which makes me wonder if I will buy another Falcon again after I lose a very large chunk of money from the first year of ownership :(

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by russellw

The first of our graphical data sets has now been uploaded into the Tech portal.

Cheers
Russ

Thanks for the work. Always enjoy.

[russellw]

The second set of graphical data is also uploaded now.

Cheers
Russ