Australia housing bubble

[yakcam]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Wondering how much it would cost to truck this from Byron Shire to Ganmain.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...head/100611248

What a great platform for conversion to residential.

Jeez, Arthur looks like the kind of bloke you'd have a beer with.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

A tidy return likely for someone:

“Sold February 1998 $130 000”


https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...leham-vic-3064

1997 - $14k must have been an empty block of land?

Nearly a 10 bagger in one year.

[Mulva]

With the "average house now 7 times the average annual salary" thing, and comparisons to average house to average salary when boomers were buying, I know it all can't be put down to this but you also need to look at the difference between an average house today versus the average house they were buying.

Based on Adelaide (so may not be the same in your states), but the average house being built here in 70s was 3 bedroom at most; much (MUCH!) smaller bedrooms than current with no walk in robes or built in robes; 1 small bathroom (no ensuite); no garage under main roof (not even freestanding carport either); small kitchen with single sink and stand-up oven that was your cooktop/oven/griller all in one (no cooktop with separate wall oven or underbench oven), no dishwasher, much less cupboards/cabinetry (no fridge provision cabinets etc); was not open plan (as someone looking to remove a load-bearing wall that **** adds lots of cost); very little choice of facade (no choice of renders and styles, just choice of brick colour or fibro/weatherboard); single lounge (no living room plus family room etc); maybe a single gas heater in lounge room and an airconditioner where a window would otherwise be (no ducted aircon and central heating, or ducted reverse cycle); and you'd add a verandah at your own cost later rather than than alfresco area under main roof; and just much smaller in size overall compared to the 'average' home now.

Surely that is also some part of the difference.

Edit: GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Surely that is also some part of the difference.

Why pick a house in the 70s? Houses didn't become wildly out of step with incomes til around 2000 onwards:



And while, yes, houses have gradually been getting bigger for several decades, they've actually been shrinking again since 2012 (same time house prices started to boom again after the GFC):



as has the median lot size for new developments:

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by b0son

Why pick a house in the 70s?...

Was in direct response to comparisons to when boomers were first home buyers, which would have been in the 70s. That reason and that reason alone.

I wasn't the one that started comparison of current gen of first homer buyers versus boomers as first home buyers..."They started it"

Looks like those posts have been deleted now anyway, so guess it is moot point

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Mulva

With the "average house now 7 times the average annual salary" thing, and comparisons to average house to average salary when boomers were buying, I know it all can't be put down to this but you also need to look at the difference between an average house today versus the average house they were buying.

Based on Adelaide (so may not be the same in your states), but the average house being built here in 70s was 3 bedroom at most; much (MUCH!) smaller bedrooms than current with no walk in robes or built in robes; 1 small bathroom (no ensuite); no garage under main roof (not even freestanding carport either); small kitchen with single sink and stand-up oven that was your cooktop/oven/griller all in one (no cooktop with separate wall oven or underbench oven), no dishwasher, much less cupboards/cabinetry (no fridge provision cabinets etc); was not open plan (as someone looking to remove a load-bearing wall that **** adds lots of cost); very little choice of facade (no choice of renders and styles, just choice of brick colour or fibro/weatherboard); single lounge (no living room plus family room etc); maybe a single gas heater in lounge room and an airconditioner where a window would otherwise be (no ducted aircon and central heating, or ducted reverse cycle); and you'd add a verandah at your own cost later rather than than alfresco area under main roof; and just much smaller in size overall compared to the 'average' home now.

Surely that is also some part of the difference.

Edit: GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

My Sons townhouse cost him $223k 18 months ago, today my Daughter enquired about building the same design with the same builder 100m away from her Brother, $263k.
$40k price rise for identical builds 18 months apart.

[Ben73]

They're building a new housing estate a few kilometres from where I am. I couldn't believe the prices that are being asked.

In 2015 I bought my 820sqm block of vacant land for $315,000
Now in the new estate they have 800sqm blocks for $760,000

If people are willing to buy these overpriced blocks that means I wouldn't leave my house unless I could break the 7 figure mark.

I now wish I kept the first house I bought in 2012 even though it was garbage under the surface. It was a much more desirable suburb than my current suburb.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

My Sons townhouse cost him $223k 18 months ago, today my Daughter enquired about building the same design with the same builder 100m away from her Brother, $263k.
$40k price rise for identical builds 18 months apart.

Cost of building has risen. Timber the culprit I believe.

[Giant Cranium]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

My Sons townhouse cost him $223k 18 months ago, today my Daughter enquired about building the same design with the same builder 100m away from her Brother, $263k.
$40k price rise for identical builds 18 months apart.

building materials have gone through the roof, 15% is not much, im quoting 35 to 40% more

[MITCHAY]

A perfect example of everyday you wait, you're just going to be paying more. I know this from experience

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

A perfect example of everyday you wait, you're just going to be paying more. I know this from experience

Until we can print houses. Its coming. Already started in the US.

[MITCHAY]

I haven't been arsed with looking at the property market since I've been living in my place for 4 years now.

But it has got me interested again and I went for a drive the other day and **** me apartments and townhouses are in places where they were not before even here in **** end of Canberra. Holy **** they go up quick

I also did more research where I'm at the moment and you need to offer me $700k+ before I'd even consider it.

My townhouse is a bit more unique so I can ask for a lot more

[buggerlugs]

A house on the beach at Sunshine Beach just below Noosa sold for 6.1 Million 3 years ago. They owners had done nothing to the house other than live in it. It has just sold again for 16.4 million.............

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by Giant Cranium

building materials have gone through the roof, 15% is not much, im quoting 35 to 40% more

This is an excerpt of an email with price rises in NZ, this is the 8th one I have received this year. Then there is the supply issue for a high percentage of the materials, we are having to alter materials and designs to account for what we can't get hold of. Cedar has gone over $30NZ per metre now and it's not worth using, a shipping container from Canada full of cedar used to cost $3-4k to ship, it's now nudging $30k.

[MITCHAY]

Don't worry saint Jacinda is going to make it it all alright

[Ross 1]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Don't worry saint Jacinda is going to make it it all alright

Unfortunately both parties have no clue on fixing housing here, even with their current joint policy nothing will be resolved.

[Citroënbender]

Interestingly UPVC windows haven’t leapt in price so much as some of the basics. Here they’re (relatively) more affordable than a decade ago.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

My Sons townhouse cost him $223k 18 months ago, today my Daughter enquired about building the same design with the same builder 100m away from her Brother, $263k.
$40k price rise for identical builds 18 months apart.

After this thread?

[Polyal]

Just like the car industry issues I cant imagine a worse time to buy/build than now regardless of the interest rates.

[Citroënbender]

I think July 2022 will be worse for these activities, at the consumer’s end. IOW, no confidence it will improve.

Et voici: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-...owth/100619410

How can this not increase upwards pressure on housing prices, if it comes to pass? I realise it’s at an “opinion shopping” stage but still a questionable approach.

[oldel]

As long as states spend serious money in the regions and have migrants only relocate there it would be a good thing.

If we've learnt anything during the pandemic employers want a 'lower class' of fit, young and desperate workers they can abuse on threat of deportation, and the gov wants more tax payers.

If business and governments want that then they also have to pay the bill of more land releases and services, better transport options etc. IE it's not free low paid workers, not free tax payers where they put the burden of mortgages or overpriced rent onto the individual to fatten the banks and have it all on credit/loans and housing always going up to protect property values. Businesses and governments have to start paying to play by starting to fix the situation by developing new satellite cities, developing existing major towns and transport etc. Stop putting huge costs or living and housing onto the people making it a ponzi scheme of 'price always go up' because debt levels become horrendous. Wage earners become slaves buried under debt for life, our kids/grandkids will have a much lower standard of living without being homeless, there's enough debt and problems in the near future as it is, who wants that?

$600'000 for a 3 bedroom unit, dream on

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ghts-137863558

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

After this thread?

I know but its what she wants and shes old enough to make her own decisions.
Perhaps you could suggest an alternative new house at that price in our area.

[Mont5.0]

Originally Posted by leesa

$600'000 for a 3 bedroom unit, dream on

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ghts-137863558

agree, although it is a town house. so you do have a court yard etc.
heres a 600k Unit in Penrith.

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...town-137528570

And Penrith is 50+k from the city.

Lucky its gods country though....

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by leesa

$600'000 for a 3 bedroom unit, dream on

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ghts-137863558

But that's the value.

Don't look at Sydney prices in that case.

I think a penthouse at the top of one of the new CBD buildings sold recently for $60 million.

Yes, $60,000,000.

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

But that's the value.

Don't look at Sydney prices in that case.

I think a penthouse at the top of one of the new CBD buildings sold recently for $60 million.

Yes, $60,000,000.

It's a very ordinary place with no remarkable features and quite a bit more expensive than similar ones in the area. It's even more expensive than nicer ones in the area. That's not the value, that's the owner just seeing if he can get it.

A penthouse on the top of a CBD building has no point of comparison to a very average townhouse with no particularly redeeming quality that justifies the price they're asking.

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I know but its what she wants and shes old enough to make her own decisions.
Perhaps you could suggest an alternative new house at that price in our area.

What was the end result from that thread? Did he get it sorted or is he going to sell it and move somewhere else? How would someone protect themselves from buying a place with a problem like that? I'm guessing that sort of thing isn't exactly listed in paperwork somewhere for a potential buyer to be aware of.
How are builders getting away with stuff like that ...

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by leesa

…How are builders getting away with stuff like that ...

I referenced that broader problem in another thread, the underscoring attitude is “Capital growth will get you over the line, what are you whining about?”.

In this instance I honestly wonder if an owner-builder permit might be a canny move. It offers the chance to take responsibility for aspects which were last time seen as under-managed. The SA regs for owner building aren't clearly laid out online and there may be sticking points with finance.

[Raptor]

Originally Posted by leesa

…
How are builders getting away with stuff like that ...

Private certifiers, engaged and paid by the builder

Another function that should never have been privatised but should have been properly funded by the government(s) and kept in public hands.

[Citroënbender]

It’s like accepting the vendor’s marine survey on a vessel.

Worse with the certification nonsense in NSW and probably other states, is complying development. Coupled with a private certifier you can literally have zero forewarning of a large (“complying”) development next door or anywhere really. I’ve had it happen three times in twelve months. First you know is when they start removing asbestos or stripping the roof. Yet a proposal to open a laundromat 500m away is put through insane hoops.