Australia housing bubble

[Citroënbender]

Renovator’s special; their bubble has definitely burst - maybe one for Leesa?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/ho...3-0ed883aed7b5

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Renovator’s special; their bubble has definitely burst - maybe one for Leesa?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/ho...3-0ed883aed7b5

That's really unfortunate. I've heard from builders that they've been accused by BCC of deliberately making a house collapse during renovations as a workaround for a denied demolition. I gather that builder's life is about to get a lot harder for a little while.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by leesa

What was the end result from that thread? Did he get it sorted or is he going to sell it and move somewhere else? How would someone protect themselves from buying a place with a problem like that? I'm guessing that sort of thing isn't exactly listed in paperwork somewhere for a potential buyer to be aware of.
How are builders getting away with stuff like that ...

Nothing unfortunately Leesa.
We contacted numerous 'inspectors', the majority never replied, some said they were too busy and a couple spoke of the site supervisor as though they knew him well, it was blatantly obvious that the industry regulates itself at the common mans level and only those with deep pockets can afford to challenge the status quo.

The day he took possession of the keys we noted the glass sliding door was completely scratched to buggery, the panel lift door was a completely different profile to the other 7 townhouses in the block and the fence panels at each end of the block we're color bond and not the horizontal slats that the rest of the rear fence is made from.
The site supervisor said he'd sort the panel door and sliding door but that the end panels were a safety/privacy thing, i said but every other block has slats on the ends and asked what makes them safer only 50m away, he said thats how it is, i believe they ran out of materials and basically thought **** it, sheets will do.

They swapped the roller door for one from a subsequent build and 18mths later despite numerous calls the sliding door is still as was.

He's still living in it and smashing the mortgage, combined with the capital gains i figure he'd have a good 60k of equity but has recently changed jobs so he's sitting tight for another 6 months at which point he'll rent it and build or buy established elsewhere.
Hopefully the Daughters will be built by then and he can move home in the interim and rent it out.

Without asking the question, at a guess it would rent for around $320pw if not more as rentals are very hard to get right now in SA.

[Citroënbender]

It looks rather like a deflating local currency might effectively re-profile the “bubble”. Not saying it will rupture, more that purchasing power will shift - likely to offshore interests… :-/

WRT to market greed, I’m surprised that agents aren’t yet (?) extorting a surety from people who want to inspect properties.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m surprised that agents aren’t yet (?) extorting a surety from people who want to inspect properties.

Don't go Putting Ideas in the rsoles Heads........

[zilo]

ANZ jacks up interest rates again....fun times are a coming..

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by zilo

ANZ jacks up interest rates again....fun times are a coming..

My mortgage broker mate told me a while ago, banks don't follow the RBA, as most people think. RBA tend to react to bank's policies, which may or may not be as obvious as a rate rise.

For me, the warning sign was when banks were actively moving their customers to fixed rates, started about 6 months ago. Have held a mortgage since the early 2000s, and I don't ever recall having my banker call me and urging me to fix my rates pronto, until 6 months ago.

[Syndrome]

I see a new tactic has recently appeared and is being used by the Real Estate industry. In the past when a sale was made, once the cooling off period had passed the sale price was shown on the websites. In the cases where "price withheld" was displayed, knowing somebody who has REIV or equivalent membership allowed you to see the sold price. Now what they are doing is not publishing the sale price until after settlement date so that the data is up to three months out of date. Shonks.

[hackney]

Once rates start to go up(& they will) a lot of people are going to get burnt.Money is cheap @ the moment.All these ‘Mcmansions’ with huge mortgages,people are going to be in for a world of pain.The first things to go?All the ‘toys’ they have purchased from their redraws.This is not going to end well,to many people living way beyond their means.

[nibble]

Very true however the ramifications will be widespread. Let me know when it's time to buy gold.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by nibble

Very true however the ramifications will be widespread. Let me know when it's time to buy gold.

Id be doing that now if I were you. Precious metals will be far more valuable in the coming months and years especially when cashless transactions are taking over in it's fullest form.

[jstanovic]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Now what they are doing is not publishing the sale price until after settlement date so that the data is up to three months out of date. Shonks.

I would have thought that was the better way to do it anyway? Until the house settle the deal can fall through rendering the sale void. I'm no housing guru though...

[Citroënbender]

Another neighbouring house has just been flattened, to make way for a duplex. Vanity reigns; the streets are full of projects by building firms who prefer competing to collaborating.

Absolutely NOTHING was salvaged. Everything was crunched up to go in a semi-trailer tipper. I think this is a self-indoctrination by the contractors, as the demolition is nearly always “showy” - they turn it into a big pile over about three days and then spend longer finishing up - as opposed to unbuilding and salvaging. Every day’s site costs will include having the tipper stand by, an 8+ tonne digger with operator, and usually a Johnny-on-the-spot. Then off-site tipping costs for unsorted demolition waste.

So either the operators are confident this boom will continue, or they’re cussedly stupid in not shoring up income with salvage sales, or reducing costs by having a manual demolition first, allowing sorted loads to be tipped.

[blueoval]

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/p...qDsN7I7Ejmj8Cs

Panic rising as major home builders go bust despite a construction boom and soaring house prices

Alongside a house price boom, Australia is in the midst of a homebuilding boom, with the Housing Industry of Australia expecting a near-record number of new homes will be built over the next 12 months.

But for many in the residential construction sector, it’s a profitless boom – and several major players have recently gone bust, with fears more will follow.

Brisbane-based giant Privium and Tasmanian-based Inside Out Construction have gone into voluntary administration, while ABD Group in Melbourne has been put into liquidation.

On the Sunshine Coast, BA Murphy Constructions has had their licence suspended by the Queensland Building and Construction Commission after allegations it wasn’t paying sub-contractors.

Why are construction companies folding?
A perfect storm of factors has been brewing for the better part of 2021, and now the rainy season has arrived.

Supply chain issues, with a shortage of building materials worldwide resulting from COVID-19 disruptions, coupled with natural disasters from freak storms to bushfires, have heaped pressure on builders.

Those shortages have led to prices rising exponentially, particularly for timber and steel.

On top of that, a labour shortage is making it difficult to find tradespeople, giving workers the power to command huge wages.

So, the overall cost of constructing a new home has been pushed up significantly.

Adding to this is the lengthy delays in actually getting the materials, which has led to some homes taking more than 12 months to be build, further adding to building companies’ costs.

With the majority of builders signing fixed price contracts with buyers, and the margin for escalating costs being inadequate, many are losing money on every single project.

It’s a big problem in exceptional circumstances like we’re seeing at the moment, said Russ Stephens, co-founder of the Association of Professional Builders.

“The average cost of a contract for a builder has gone up between 15% to 20% over the past six or seven months alone – and up to as much as 50% in some areas,” Mr Stephens said.

“But because they’ve already signed a fixed-price contract, they’re unable to recoup the costs from customers, which means they have to absorb it.

“They have a fixed income coming in, but they money going out is up.”

Mr Stephens estimates some builders are losing about $40,000 on each job, and for those doing larger jobs, they’re more likely losing hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Peter Koulizos, Property Investment Professionals of Australia chairman, said the HomeBuilder grant, which offered up to $25,000 to eligible buyers signing a building contract from the middle of 2020 until March 2021 – a scheme designed to stimulate the economy following COVID – was the catalyst for the issues that now plague the building industry.

It led to a building boom by pushing demand up significantly, but with a supply shortage occurring at the same time, it created the “perfect storm”, Mr Koulizos said.

It’s just the tip of the iceberg, with more failures to come
The issues in the building industry will likely carry through until at least the end of 2022, Master Builders Queensland deputy CEO Paul Bidwell said.

“We think there will be more insolvencies, and the time we’re really concerned about is the first quarter of next year,” Mr Bidwell said.

Initially, supply chain issues were impacting mostly smaller builders that didn’t have leverage with big suppliers, but it’s now impacting all builders, big and small, he said.

Mr Stephens believes more than 60% of builders are currently losing money, with many failing to manage their finances properly.

“This is the tip of the iceberg at the moment – we think it’s going to get a lot worse in 2022 in terms of building company failures,” he said.

According to Mr Stephens, the problems in the industry need to be addressed openly and honestly, with financial education programs for builders needed to help reduce the number going bust.

“If we sweep it under the rug, it will be too late next year,” he said.

Builders need to understand where they are right now financially and where each jobs sits in terms of profitability, which will help with starting their next job and signing future contracts, Mr Stephens explains.

They should also be careful about signing contracts too far in advance, unless they factor in appropriate cost rises, he added.

What can buyers do to reduce their risk?

Many more buyers are likely to be affected by construction companies folding, with the mental health cost for both builders and buyers involved being “extraordinary”, according to Mr Bidwell.

But those yet to sign a contract can take some steps to reduce their risk, he said.

People interested in building would be wise to wait 12 months to see if some of the major issues are alleviated, to be able to trust a builder won’t go broke and there will be some more stability in costs, according to Mr Koulizos.

“There is now no extra demand from HomeBuilder because it has finished, but there is a still a worldwide shortage of certain building supplies,” he said.

“If you’ve got the land and there is no urgency to build, just wait and be patient. A 2.5% interest the holding costs won’t kill you, and you’re going to be building with more surety in 12 months.”

For buyers signing contracts with builders now, Mr Koulizos’ number one tip is to make sure the builder has the right insurance cover, to cover you if they go bust.

In that case, the insurance company will pay for someone else to come in and finish the job.

That’s not an easy process, and it means owners will be stuck living somewhere else for a much longer period, but it gives some protection, Mr Koulizos said.

“If you’re already building, with your home already under construction, buyers should make sure they only make progress payments after somebody has inspected it to make sure all the work you’re paying for has been done.”

Anyone signing a contract today should do their homework and think carefully about which builder they choose, rather than just going with the best price, as it might not be enough to complete the build, says Mr Bidwell.

A cost-plus contract, where the actual cost of supplies is passed onto the buyer throughout the building process, is also an option, but those aren’t favoured by banks due to the uncertainty.

“Buyers should talk to builders and see if they are confident they can deliver on time and for the price,” he said.

In some cases builders have come back to owners and asked for more money to deliver the build, and that can be done if builders and owners agree, he added.

“The only saving grace in this is that the housing market has gone mad,” he said, adding that some buyers are willing to pay the extra cost – if they had the capacity to – because they know their properties have experienced a significant value uplift due to the housing boom.

While each state is different, in Queensland a temporary measure has been implemented by the state government in the form of an independent mediation service called the Accelerated Builder/Consumer Dispute Framework.

It’s designed to deal with disputes between owners and builders should they arise.

[FTE217]

From the article posted by blueoval.....
The Briz one is old news as some may know.

"Brisbane-based giant Privium and Tasmanian-based Inside Out Construction have gone into voluntary administration, while ABD Group in Melbourne has been put into liquidation."

Is it hardly surprising on the above - 2 States considering what we've gone through with lockdowns, Qld shut all out as we know, so where not surprised same goes for Tas.
IMO its weeding out companies who have propered living on credit and on the edge, sadly they take down with them the customers/consumer who did business with them.

"more than 60% of builders are currently losing money, with many failing to manage their finances properly."

The above is rule 101 in business, most of these developers large or small live on borrowed $$$$$'s and beyound their means.
Smart ones don't over extend themselves, like the old saying goes, just in case for those rainy days, well covid has been a long suffering rainy day......

Rising costs have been a given last 2yrs on everything.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by FTE217

From the article posted by blueoval.....
The Briz one is old news as some may know.

"Brisbane-based giant Privium and Tasmanian-based Inside Out Construction have gone into voluntary administration, while ABD Group in Melbourne has been put into liquidation."

Is it hardly surprising on the above - 2 States considering what we've gone through with lockdowns, Qld shut all out as we know, so where not surprised same goes for Tas.
IMO its weeding out companies who have propered living on credit and on the edge, sadly they take down with them the customers/consumer who did business with them.

"more than 60% of builders are currently losing money, with many failing to manage their finances properly."

The above is rule 101 in business, most of these developers large or small live on borrowed $$$$$'s and beyound their means.
Smart ones don't over extend themselves, like the old saying goes, just in case for those rainy days, well covid has been a long suffering rainy day......

Rising costs have been a given last 2yrs on everything.

Some of the smaller building companies were trying to cash in on the builders grant, locking in work for the next 2 years and I dont think they realized that there were stock shortages for prime materials. That article mentioned that this was a factor due to fixed price contracts. Bigger builders have more skin in the game so to speak and I know a few in SA locked in contracts with major suppliers during the grant period to make sure they weren't left in the cold with supply. Doing this meant smaller builders either had to wait or find another supplier at heavily inflated rates. Definitely a flow on effect going .

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by nibble

Very true however the ramifications will be widespread. Let me know when it's time to buy gold.

It's always time to buy gold!........

Did you know that gold is indestructible?....its a fact, hence its value.
I owned 4 mining leases here in WA, that was 10 years ago, had to give up prospecting due to failing health.
But it's always time to buy the yellow shiny stuff!..

[nibble]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

It's always time to buy gold!........

Did you know that gold is indestructible?....its a fact, hence its value.
I owned 4 mining leases here in WA, that was 10 years ago, had to give up prospecting due to failing health.
But it's always time to buy the yellow shiny stuff!..

Yeah not sure if you're joking or not. But returns on gold are not great. To me it's more of an end of days type investment

[Citroënbender]

There’s way too much front loading of contracts. Far many people not mucking in when they should, and increased reliance on machinery vs manual labour - when the latter can be faster, neater (and hence less wasteful), capture more stages in one exercise. Plus the wastage, as I like to mention.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by nibble

Yeah not sure if you're joking or not. But returns on gold are not great. To me it's more of an end of days type investment

+1. Im looking to get some for this exact reason.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by nibble

Yeah not sure if you're joking or not. But returns on gold are not great. To me it's more of an end of days type investment

Got 3kg just for ****s and giggles last year.

After stroking it every night in front of TV missus complained.

Sold it back and made 30k in 3months...by accident.

But you could easily lose just as much cause I don't think it's a day trader type of commodity.

Anyway..don't buy a certificate...its only paper...here is where you buy the actual stuff at a good price....but as all others they love the commision...about 2500 bucks a kilo.

http://www.adelaide-exchange.com.au/...rProducts.aspx

[T3rminator]

Get ready...

Bank of England surprises by lifting interest rates
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...rpay/100707908

[b0son]

T3rminator surprises by posting the wrong link :P

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by b0son

T3rminator surprises by posting the wrong link :P

Haha I checked before posting. Scroll down. The daily blog styles are not link friendly.

[Citroënbender]

Drawing perhaps a long bow, but commenting frankly on the squeeze against “ordinary” purchasers in regional cities of the Untied States.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...alia/100689184

[Falcon SXR8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Drawing perhaps a long bow, but commenting frankly on the squeeze against “ordinary” purchasers in regional cities of the Untied States.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...alia/100689184

Already happening in regional south east qld. We have been smashed with southerners and people from the big cities coming out and buying our crap rental houses, paying way more than they should ( landlords have loved being able to ditch their junk) and forcing tenants literally out in the local park in tents. This has drove up rent prices dramatically as the landlords left are taking full advantage of the situation.

I was hoping things with covid would normalize next year and a lot of these ones would move back to the cities but with the way things are going in other countries at the moment I don't think things are going to much better here.

[T3rminator]

Missed my prediction by a measly 6 months. Will an eventual long term 1 to 2, or even 3% rate rise ***** the bubble?

Reserve Bank opts for standard 25-basis-point interest rate hike as first in likely string of rises
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-...ints/101033156

[FTE217]

The bubble is pretty plentiful for many having been locked down and no OS travels for so long....
Sales in general have been spirited in many sectors - I suppose some will just need to eat a few less smashed avos a month.

[Yellow_Festiva]

I'm casually observing the market and have a whole bunch of properties saved on my short list.

8-9 months ago price changes were + and most properties were selling at auction in a frenzy well above expectations.

The last few months have seen a drastic change. Prices are being reduced and many properties are being removed from sale.

8-9 months ago many agents didn't bother returning calls or replying to emails and properties were practically selling themselves.

Those same agents are now calling me and introducing me to properties on an almost weekly basis and making it clear the vendors are open to meeting the market.

I'm still semi-interested in buying something, however I'll wait till Jan of next year before I get serious.

By then, we would have had a few more rate rises and I will get a better gauge of what is happening in the market.

I agree that drops of 15-20% in Sydney in certain areas are on the cards. Places are getting listed now at prices that I would have considered a bargain several months ago.

[danzvtil]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Missed my prediction by a measly 6 months. Will an eventual long term 1 to 2, or even 3% rate rise ***** the bubble?

Reserve Bank opts for standard 25-basis-point interest rate hike as first in likely string of rises
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-...ints/101033156

My god, all I’ve heard reported all day is the poor saps who will be RUINED by this increase and the govt needs to do something about it, if you can’t afford this increase, then you’re in for a crap couple of years.
Incidentally my home loan provider (credit union) called me 2 weeks ago for a loan heath check, and offered straight up to drop my rate by 1.75% to offer a buffer, they are anticipating 5 rises in the next couple of years.