Covid 19 -

It was a simplification, yes, as a response to someone who took issue with my suggestion that if their immune system was so good then they'd never get cancer.

Cancer can be caused by a virus and that virus is transmissible. There is a vaccination to prevent it because why? Because immune systems can't cure everything.

Cue the outrage and the frothing at the mouth by those waiting to spew forth with the "akcchhuaalllyy...". You're up first, Homer.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 5th 2022.

25,410 new cases for Australia and 81 deaths so the CMR is 0.154%.

NZ recorded 269 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.302%.

The UK recorded 60,114 cases and 259 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.892%.

303,211 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,693 deaths sees CMR at 1.193%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 393M;
Global deaths pass 5.75M, the last 50k in 4 days;
Europe passes 134M cases;

Brunei (713);
Kiribati (350);
Egypt (2,298);
Azerbaijan (7,704);
Belarus (8,231);
Singapore (10,390);
South Korea (36,362); and
Russia (177,282) – the 16th consecutive day;

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Angola drops below.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by leesa

It was a simplification

Try detailed drawings leesa, simplification can often be too, well, simple for some to grasp...

[b0son]

Originally Posted by GTMOND

We got Delta under control as most of the country was in lockdowns and restrictions at the time.

No, we were under lockdown lite. People were still working and travelling around. It was vaccination that ultimately allowed us out of lockdown because lockdown was only keeping it from growing quickly.

The vaccine was supposed to be 95% effective against catching the virus, that was totally inaccurate.

Against delta, protection against infection was high.

Now we're told it may help you stop getting severe illness.

Now we're dealing with omicron. It spreads far more easily than delta ever could, but it sends far less to hospital. But if you do go to hospital, the outcomes are broadly similar.

And by the way I'm no antivaxxer, I seriously just have a little hesitancy, as the gold post's just keep moving.

Thats what viruses do - move the goalposts. Same reason there's a new flu vaccine every year. Thankfully the trend is for the virus to get less and less dangerous with each new variant, so its likely omicron mutates into something that is little worse than a cold/flu even for the unvaccinated. At that point, we indeed can rely on our immune systems and dispense with a new booster every 6 months. If it still remains particularly risky for older age groups, perhaps they will be the only ones encouraged to get boosted.

Also most people who have died have had severe underlying conditions, that's a fact.

The ones that were vaccinated, yes. But plenty of the unvaccinated who died had fairly minor underlying issues, and some had none at all.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 7,893 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9297 from 0.9179) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,169 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9486 (from 0.9586) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.




No States set a new daily record on 5/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Try detailed drawings leesa, simplification can often be too, well, simple for some to grasp...

I am getting old and am losing the motivation to ensure everything I type is 100% accurate despite the context being clear to the average person.
The moment it's not, there's a small hoard of salty people ready and waiting to pounce on it.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by leesa

I am getting old and am losing the motivation to ensure everything I type is 100% accurate despite the context being clear to the average person.
The moment it's not, there's a small hoard of salty people ready and waiting to pounce on it.

Is it really inaccurate though, or are you simply making the mistake of assuming that your audience operate on the same level of intellect and 'get the gist'.

[slowsnake]

My cancer was caused by an asbestos fibre that was breathed into my lungs 40 plus years ago, mums breast cancer was caused by hormonal changes, I believe that cancer causes cancer, either you get cancer or you dont!
And yes cervical cancer "can" be caused by HPV, throat cancer too, my eldest brother has cancer of his tonsil, they don't know what caused it?
No one has all the answers to these questions, my fathers cancer may of been caused by his war service?.....bringing the troops back home from everywhere including Hiroshima and Nagasaki but now they say that workers who treated raw rubber may of got dads cancer type, from the chemicals they then used.

I mean who knows, really knows, you just have to cope the best you can, and if you have family to look after you or you them then be grateful..

[T3rminator]

Ask Michael Douglas. HPV, isn't that what he got (throat cancer) from going down under?

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by russellw

Australia
NSW records 7,893 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9297 from 0.9179) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.

image

VIC records 7,169 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9486 (from 0.9586) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.

image


No States set a new daily record on 5/1.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

image

Russell, I think you are using Jan instead of Feb in a few posts..... your info appears very accurate so just pointing out this little error for amendment...sorry if I have misread.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Russell, I think you are using Jan instead of Feb in a few posts..... your info appears very accurate so just pointing out this little error for amendment...sorry if I have misread.

No, you are right. I've fixed it for today. Just shows how fast time flies when you're getting old!

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Is it really inaccurate though, or are you simply making the mistake of assuming that your audience operate on the same level of intellect and 'get the gist'.

Ah the voice of reason.
If you align yourself with anything I've posted you might end up with people shooting daggers at you.

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Ask Michael Douglas. HPV, isn't that what he got (throat cancer) from going down under?

Yup, certainly is

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by russellw

No, you are right. I've fixed it for today. Just shows how fast time flies when you're getting old!

Ha, I thought the same.
But yep its February already

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Ask Michael Douglas. HPV, isn't that what he got (throat cancer) from going down under?

Might've been a Furball....

Originally Posted by hayseed

Might've been a Furball....

you're a really cunning linguist

[zilo]

Originally Posted by leesa

HPV - a virus - causes cervical cancer and is spread by having sex. gardasil is the vaccine, yes. Developed right here by an australian immonologist.

Careful, guys. It can also infect your mouth and give you cancers of the throat. You can also get yourselves vaccinated for it.

He cannot catch cervical cancer, therefore you are ...wrong.

Newsflash....He doesn't have a cervix.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by zilo

He cannot catch cervical cancer, therefore you are ...wrong.

Newsflash....He doesn't have a cervix.

Not what she said, she clearly said "cancer of the throat"
HPV can cause a number of different cancers.
https://www.health.gov.au/health-top...us#what-is-hpv

these smilies are amazing, there's one for every possible response

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 6th 2022.

25,259 new cases for Australia and 47 deaths so the CMR is 0.154%.

NZ recorded 227 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.298%.

The UK recorded 53,326 cases and 75 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.889%.

448,089 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,051 deaths sees CMR at 1.187%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 395M;
Europe passes 135M cases;
Asia passes 104M cases;
North America passes 91M cases;
The USA passes 78M cases;

Egypt (2,301);
Belarus (8,315);
South Korea (38,670) – the 6th consecutive day;
Japan (105,817); and
Russia (180,071) – the 17th consecutive day

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 7,437 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9469 from 0.9297) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line. Trend lines for all graphs are now 4th order polynomials.



VIC records 8,275 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9713 (from 0.9486) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No States set a new daily record on 6/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by russellw

Russia (180,071) – the 17th consecutive day.

Ukraine won't have any worries in a few more weeks if Russia keeps this up - zekes can't fight!

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 6th 2022.


Russia (180,071) – the 17th consecutive day

Don't know about anyone else, but 17 days in a row seems to be a bit "managed" to me. To not go up and down at all seems like they may be drip feeding the data.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Don't know about anyone else, but 17 days in a row seems to be a bit "managed" to me. To not go up and down at all seems like they may be drip feeding the data.

It is going up ... 17 consecutive days of record/rising case numbers.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by b0son

It is going up ... 17 consecutive days of record/rising case numbers.

Yep I am sure it is, but how much is it really? Look at any of our graphs, growth of this kind is always chaotic to an extent - up down, up up up down, up up big jump up down up, etc.- this looks more like how you budget growth.

going by Covid live it is 27 days in a row of growth without ever going backwards. Just saying, it looks suss - too neat for me.

[T3rminator]

I'm confused. Are we still in a crisis or not?

1700 ADF troops to be sent in to help respond to current covid, mostly in the aged care sector I think?, and on the same day we've announced we are opening up to all international arrivals in 14 days time.

[arm79]

Requirement for checking in with QR code at non-vaccine mandated businesses has been scrapped in Queensland.

Cant find the story anywhere else, so the Courier Mail will have to do.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/coron...c11312ce0da850

The QR check-in app will be scrapped for all businesses who aren’t covered under the vaccinate mandate.

Other businesses such as bars, clubs and pubs will still use the app for the purpose of checking vaccine status.

That actually sounds a little ambiguous. Why do you still need to check into a pub if all they need to see is your vaccine status, which can be done by presenting the certificate? Will see when the official directions get handed down.

EDIT - Found some more copies of the story.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...6-10cbde061904

https://www.news.com.au/national/que...e091602974ec39

Thankfully now I won't have to wait 15 mins to enter my local shopping centre then another 15 mins to get into Woolies.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Yep I am sure it is, but how much is it really? Look at any of our graphs, growth of this kind is always chaotic to an extent - up down, up up up down, up up big jump up down up, etc.- this looks more like how you budget growth.

going by Covid live it is 27 days in a row of growth without ever going backwards. Just saying, it looks suss - too neat for me.

Not quite but thanks for doubting.

The previous high was 41,335 (6/11/21) so the new record consecutive daily high count doesn't start until that is exceeded on 21/1.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

Not quite but thanks for doubting.

The previous high was 41,335 (6/11/21) so the new record consecutive daily high count doesn't start until that is exceeded on 21/1.

Ahh you are correct-17 of days of records.....but still 27 days of growth from where they were on Jan 11 , I have sort of meandered away from your number, to questioning how trustworthy those numbers are (not questioning your numbers Russ, questioning theirs). Anyway, question posed, I shall move on.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 9,690 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9770 from 0.9469) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line. Trend lines for all graphs are now 4th order polynomials.



VIC records 9,785 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9935 (from 0.9713) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No States set a new daily record on 7/2.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of our week on Monday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 2k less cases then Victoria last week although Victoria recorded 13,241 less cases than the previous week while NSW recorded 35,585 and Queensland 25,634 less.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 7th 2022.

22,022 new cases for Australia and 42 deaths so the CMR is 0.154%.

NZ recorded 225 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.294%.

The UK recorded 63,307 cases and 45 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.886%.

199,079 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,673 deaths sees CMR at 1.186%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 397M;
Europe passes 136M cases;
Russia finally end the string of consecutive case record days;


New Caledonia (2,848); and
Jordan (21,626);

... all recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Mongolia, Morocco and Colombia drop below.