Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,911 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0130 (from 1.0285) while the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,499 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9908 (from 0.9771) while the actual line is about level with the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 13/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 13th 2022.

29,247 new cases for Australia and 16 deaths so the CMR is 0.155%.

NZ recorded 14,533 cases and 8 deaths for a CMR of 0.028%.

The UK didn’t report again yesterday for a CMR of 0.833%.

14,574 new cases in the USA yesterday and 688 deaths sees CMR at 1.224%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 458M;
Europe passes 165M cases;
Asia passes 126M cases;

Only
Vietnam (169,935) on 12/3

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[mostly_broncos]

Originally Posted by tweeked

It is interesting seeing the CMR in the US being so high compared to ours. Was talking at work a workmate who was saying it doesn't make sense as the US has "nearly" as high a 2 shot vaccination rate as us. Nearly is 65 to 95%....... he still said it was close. I did my best to explain the important number is not how many are vaccinated, it is how many are not. We have about 5% without 2 doses, they have 35%.

They have 7 times more NOT double shot vaccinated.

Funnily enough if you multiply our CMR of .161 by 7 you nearly end up with exactly the US CMR ......

You need to take into account the huge number of people in the US who have already had it. Getting it protects you more than getting vaxxed. As confirmed by the number of people who caught it after being supposedly protected by 3 shots.

My sister had 3 moderna shots and caught it in January. You hear that story told widely , another story is if you had 2 and caught corona you doctor saying don't bother with any more shots because really what is the point

I have heard of people who had corona testing positive a year later , my older brother for instance , but even though he is generally unhealthy he had no symptoms the second time around.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,689 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0272 (from 1.0130) while the actual line is back level with the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,460 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0390 (from 0.9908) while the actual line is back above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 14/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 14th 2022.

26,360 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR is 0.154%.

NZ recorded 15,576 cases and 1 death for a CMR of 0.027%.

The UK records 170,467 cases and 135 deaths over 3 days for a CMR of 0.827%.

28,518 new cases in the USA yesterday and -2,982 deaths (after some adjustments) sees CMR at 1.220%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 459M;
Asia passes 170M cases;

Only
Bhutan (1,032)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Ecuador drops below.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 643,149 cases in the period to 25/2 and 1,559 deaths between 265/2-12/3 for a CMR of 0.242% which is higher than that of the previous period (0.103%) and closer to what it had been however there was also a 68% reduction in case numbers (-1.3M) so that impacts the data.

Thus, in the 225 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 13,323,214 cases and 33,200 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.249% which is fractionally below the 0.250% at day 210. That’s 25.62% of the adult population who have been infected in that time!

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.





On an annualised basis, that’s 21.6M cases and about 53.8k (at the average CMR) deaths and just over half of the adult population would get COVID in the year.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 30,402 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1006 (from 1.0582) while the actual line is back level with the predictive trend line. It should be noted that 10k of those cases were carried over from Sunday and Monday – for our purposes I have split them evenly across those two days.



VIC records 9,426 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0772 (from 1.0390) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



WA (5,377) set a new daily record on 14/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still slightly below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 43,152 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 1,678 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 16,766 more and Queensland 1,348 less.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 15th 2022.

34,105 new cases for Australia and 26 deaths so the CMR is 0.154%.

NZ recorded 21,657 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.026%.

The UK recorded 119,229 cases and 222 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.823%. Some of those were weekend catch-up.

19,884 new cases in the USA yesterday and 615 deaths sees CMR at 1.221%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 461M;
Europe passes 166M cases;
South Korea passes 7M cases;

Only
Channel Islands (2,602); and
Vietnam (175,480)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Slovenia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Belarus drops below.

[HIPO]

Interesting comments by the NSW Prem. on QR codes the other day.... saying theres no science behind it & was really just for them to be seen doing something..... also admitted 'colluding" with Dan to get on the same page & blaming the Media for scare tactics.... lol... no they wouldnt manipulate or bull**** us.....

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by HIPO

Interesting comments by the NSW Prem. on QR codes the other day.... saying theres no science behind it & was really just for them to be seen doing something..... also admitted 'colluding" with Dan to get on the same page & blaming the Media for scare tactics.... lol... no they wouldnt manipulate or bull**** us.....

In what context was it said? Got a link or quote? I'd agree QR codes became useless once contact tracing was overwhelmed. It was gold standard until it wasn't.

But it had its purpose earlier on when the strategy was to contain.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

In what context was it said? Got a link or quote? I'd agree QR codes became useless once contact tracing was overwhelmed. It was gold standard until it wasn't.

But it had its purpose earlier on when the strategy was to contain.

cant remember where i watched it, but this is stating similar by the looks...

https://blog.canberradeclaration.org...ience-qr-code/

[b0son]

Well, after two years, multiple infection waves, multiple variants, and multiple jabs, we can finally say it's 'just like the flu'....

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...86456108830731

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 20,087 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0963 (from 1.1006) while the actual line is back level above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 9,752 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0688 (from 1.0772) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



WA (6,062) set a new daily record on 14/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still slightly below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by b0son

Well, after two years, multiple infection waves, multiple variants, and multiple jabs, we can finally say it's 'just like the flu'....

It poses an interesting question but the numbers are all wrong for many reasons including the very simple reason that we can only estimate the real case numbers for influenza whereas we have a pretty good handle on the COVID CMR.

We're doing well here in Australia with an average COVID CMR this year to date of 0.101% but that's still 5x greater than the 0.02% for Influenza in the USA and other countries are still having worse CMR's than ours.

HERE is the debunking of that myth.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

In what context was it said? Got a link or quote? I'd agree QR codes became useless once contact tracing was overwhelmed. It was gold standard until it wasn't.

But it had its purpose earlier on when the strategy was to contain.

Yes context is important.

The NSW Premier was openingly admitting the last time QR codes were introduced it was to (sucessfully) counter a media scare campaign.

Absolutely not that there was no science behind QR codes at all.

Always interesting how people can view exactly the same source material and come up with polar opposite interpretations.

[ute83]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0MxQGNCPkg
Twenty nine minutes in.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 16th 2022.

58,684 new cases for Australia and 22 deaths so the CMR is 0.152%.

NZ recorded 19,519 cases and 23 deaths for a CMR of 0.030%. Case numbers also passed 400k.

The UK recorded 90,974 cases and 53 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.820%.

36,576 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,419 deaths sees CMR at 1.223%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 463M;
Europe passes 167M cases;
Asia passes 128M cases;
India passes 43M cases;

Only
Austria (58,583);
Vietnam (180,558); and
South Korea (400,725)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Jordan drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 20,050 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0518 (from 1.0963) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 9,036 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0367 (from 1.0668) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend. Victoria also passes 1M cases for 2022 thus far.



WA (7,151) set a new daily record on 17/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

[russellw]

We are starting to see studies related to the efficacy of a 4th vaccination dose with somewhat mixed results.

In an Israeli study of health care workers, the following conclusion was reached:

Along with previous data showing the superiority of a third dose to a second dose, our results suggest that maximal immunogenicity of mRNA vaccines is achieved after three doses and that antibody levels can be restored by a fourth dose. Furthermore, we observed low vaccine efficacy against infections in health care workers, as well as relatively high viral loads suggesting that those who were infected were infectious. Thus, a fourth vaccination of healthy young health care workers may have only marginal benefits. Older and vulnerable populations were not assessed.

The evidence in favour of a 3rd dose is conclusive with a UK study reinforcing data from other sources although even a third dose efficacy wanes over time:

With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness after two doses of AstraZeneca primary course started at 82.8% after 2-4 weeks but waned to 43.5% after 25 or more weeks. With the mRNA vaccines, effectiveness after two doses was higher in all periods, but there was also evidence of waning. After a booster with an mRNA vaccine, vaccine effectiveness reached more than 95% with any of the primary courses and remained high up to the longest follow-up point (≥10 weeks).

Vaccine effectiveness was lower for the Omicron variant at all intervals after vaccination and for all combinations of primary courses and booster doses investigated.

Among those who had received two AstraZeneca doses, almost no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease caused by the Omicron variant was noted from 20-24 weeks after the second dose. Among those who had received two Pfizer doses, vaccine effectiveness was 65.5% 2-4 weeks after the second dose, dropping to 15.4% after 15-19 weeks and dropping further to 8.8% after 25 or more weeks. The vaccine effectiveness of two doses of Moderna vaccine had a similar reduction over time from 75.1% after 2-4 weeks to 14.9% after 25 or more weeks.

Among persons who received AstraZeneca as the primary course, from 2-4 weeks after a Pfizer booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 62.4% before waning to 39.6% after 10 or more weeks. The Moderna booster vaccine increased effectiveness to 70.1% after 2-4 weeks which waned to 60.9% after 5-9 weeks. Vaccine effectiveness was lowest among those who received an AstraZeneca primary course with an AstraZeneca booster vaccine. Waning efficacy was most notable against the Omicron variant, for which the vaccine effectiveness was 46.7% at 5-9 weeks.

Among persons who received Pfizer as the primary course, from 2-4 weeks after a Pfizer booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 67.2% before declining to 45.7% after 10 or more weeks. The Moderna booster increased vaccine effectiveness to 73.9% after 2-4 weeks before decreasing to 64.4% after 5-9 weeks. After a Moderna primary course, vaccine effectiveness increased to 64.9% at 2-4 weeks after a Pfizer booster and 66.3% at 2-4 weeks after a Moderna booster.

It's probably better shown in a table. Each coloured group represents different primary vaccines with the different boosters.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 17th 2022.

52,341 new cases for Australia and 27 deaths so the CMR is 0.150%. Interestingly, we rank 27th globally for total case numbers despite being 55th in population size while we are ranked 79th in terms of deaths.

NZ recorded 19,616 cases and 10 deaths for a CMR of 0.031%.

The UK recorded 90,472 cases and 138 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.817%.

38,103 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,396 deaths sees CMR at 1.224%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 465M;
Asia sets new daily highs with 787,653 cases on 16/3 and 823,488 on 17/3;
Europe passes 168M cases;
Asia passes 129M cases;
The UK passes 20M cases;
Germany passes 18M cases;
South Korea passes 8M cases;

Only
South Korea (621,328)

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Belgium move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drops below.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by russellw

It poses an interesting question but the numbers are all wrong for many reasons including the very simple reason that we can only estimate the real case numbers for influenza whereas we have a pretty good handle on the COVID CMR.

We're doing well here in Australia with an average COVID CMR this year to date of 0.101% but that's still 5x greater than the 0.02% for Influenza in the USA and other countries are still having worse CMR's than ours.

HERE is the debunking of that myth.

Depends on which seasonal flu you look at. Some years it's as high as 0.05%. Still less than covid, but overwhelmingly better than the original covid. We take no real action against the flu beyond encouraging vaccinations, so I wonder at what point covid becomes the same, or perhaps our handling of the flu will change now... ?

As far as the debunking article goes, its from 2020 so not necessarily hugely relevant to omicron. I know from my own stats that as delta has been displaced by omicron, the proportion of ICU and ventilated patients in NSW has fallen, and continues to do so. So even though the severe outcomes are broadly the same as they always were, they arent happening at the same rate even if you do need to go to hospital.

In any case, lets hope covid continues the trend of reduced severity with each new variant.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 19,060 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0456 (from 1.0518) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line. NSW also passes 2,000 deaths since the pandemic began.



VIC records 7,847 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0230 (from 1.0367) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 18/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 18th 2022.

52,341 new cases for Australia and 27 deaths so the CMR is 0.150%. Interestingly, we rank 27th globally for total case numbers despite being 55th in population size while we are ranked 79th in terms of deaths.

NZ recorded 19,616 cases and 10 deaths for a CMR of 0.031%.

The UK recorded 92,135 cases and 125 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.814%.

60,110 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,215 deaths sees CMR at 1.225%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 467M;
17/3 was the first day over 2M global cases since 17/2;
Asia set a new daily highs with 1,001,884 cases on 17/3;
Europe passes 169M cases;
Asia passes 130M cases;
North America passes 96M cases;
Hong Kong passes 1M cases;

Only
Thailand (27,071);

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while El Salvador and Bahrain drop below.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by russellw

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 19,060 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0456 (from 1.0518) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line. NSW also passes 2,000 deaths since the pandemic began.

image

VIC records 7,847 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0230 (from 1.0367) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.

image

No states set a new daily record on 18/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for three States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.

image

New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

image

hi russ
i heard w.a. dropped by 1000 yesterday was that correct
and with things open as such and the way its trending how does it look compared to the others ? any chance it could be added to graph ?
also heard that was w.a. lagged behind the rest with every thing w.a. has excelled in the 3rd (booster shot) % compared to the others states is that also correct ?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by wodahs

hi russ
i heard w.a. dropped by 1000 yesterday was that correct
and with things open as such and the way its trending how does it look compared to the others ? any chance it could be added to graph ?
also heard that was w.a. lagged behind the rest with every thing w.a. has excelled in the 3rd (booster shot) % compared to the others states is that also correct ?

1. Not that I've seen in my numbers.
2. I've added it to the graph in the post above.
3. Yes - they have been running a blitz on 3rd vaccinations that sees them at 91% of eligible people.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 16,183 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0069 (from 1.0456) while the actual line is now fractionally below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,694 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9984 (from 1.0230) while the actual line remains slightly above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 19/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 19th 2022.

46,522 new cases for Australia and 28 deaths so the CMR is 0.148%.

NZ recorded 18,555 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.031%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.814%.

28,748 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,162 deaths sees CMR at 1.226%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 469M;
Asia passes 139M cases;
France passes 24M cases;
Japan passes 6M cases;
Singapore passes 1M cases;

No countries

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Indonesia drops below.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by b0son

Well, after two years, multiple infection waves, multiple variants, and multiple jabs, we can finally say it's 'just like the flu'....

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...86456108830731

Quite interesting that in mid 2020 - during the height of 'just like the flu' comments - it was almost 20 times as lethal as flu for the most vulnerable.

Incredible what two years of data, research, and medical commitment is capable of.
Imagine how things would have gone if we'd listened to the 'just like the flu' team right from the beginning.

Very interesting thread there, especially the part about total excess deaths from all major respiratory causes and not just Covid.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNe--MVX...png&name=large

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT March 20th 2022.

39,958 new cases for Australia and 6 deaths so the CMR is 0.147%.

NZ recorded 11,997 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.031%.

The UK didn’t report again yesterday for a CMR of 0.814%.

12,362 new cases in the USA yesterday and 327 deaths sees CMR at 1.226%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 470M;
Global deaths pass 6.1M, the last 50k in 10 days;
Europe passes 170M cases;
Asia passes 132M cases;

No countries

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 14,970 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0131 (from 1.0102) while the actual line remains fractionally below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,531 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0234 (from 0.9984) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 20/3.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend which is now a 3rd order polynomial.