Covid 19 -

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m wondering if the NZ data will be significantly influenced by reopening to general traffic between there and Australia.

(Also wondering if the frozen chip shortage is being blamed on Covid.)

They have been having the same or more cases per capita than Aus for a while, so maybe they will make ours worse!!!!

[CJR09]

Originally Posted by tweeked

They have been having the same or more cases per capita than Aus for a while, so maybe they will make ours worse!!!!

Yeah think it has been mostly ba2 here in nz - bit more transmissible, and given that the second wave that others have had from ba1 to ba2 'should' be minimal?

NZ seems to bare a fairly similar resemblance to the QLD bell curve trend line

the latest release 'xe' has hit the stores in GB - coming soon to a town near you?

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by tweeked

They have been having the same or more cases per capita than Aus for a while, so maybe they will make ours worse!!!!

We're at the peak of infection (media says we're heading out of it ) you guys peaked months ago

Makes me laugh listening to the right wing political radio hosts who have been moaning for months how liberated and free you guys are over there and that youre months ahead of us (which is true).... but the important part they fail to acknowledge is its cost you more than three times the death rate per capita .....which is just a number (as long as its not one of your rellies or mates)
What annoys them is they're trapped here and cant jet off somewhere for a holliday

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 19,183 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0120 (from 0.9726) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 12,007 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0447 (from 1.0151) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 4/4 but WA passes 200k cases.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is now back above the predictive trend line.



I might add, on the comparison with New Zealand, that our mortality rate per capita (for adult population) is nearly 4x greater at 35.54/100k compare to 9.89/100k despite the case numbers only being 27% higher per 100k (NZ 19.1k/100k v AU 26.2k/100k).

Interestingly, so far this year the case rates per 100k are fairly similar (NZ 18.8k / AU 19.9k) but there is still a wide disparity in mortality rates with Australia at 23/100k and NZ at 8.5k/100k.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 4th 2022.

46,685 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 0.135%.

NZ recorded 10,248 cases and 13 deaths for a CMR of 0.052%. Case numbers pass the 700k mark.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.780%.

19,372 new cases in the USA yesterday and 278 deaths sees CMR at 1.232%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 492M;
Asia passes 141M cases;
Brazil passes 30M cases;
France passes 26M cases;
South Korea passes 14M cases;

No countries
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 24,151 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0500 (from 1.0120) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 12,150 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0565 (from 1.0447) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 5/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is well above the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 71,150 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 8,194 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 2,181 less, Queensland 300 less and WA 592 more.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 5th 2022.

58,178 new cases for Australia and 38 deaths so the CMR is 0.134%.

NZ recorded 10,248 cases and 13 deaths for a CMR of 0.052%. Case numbers pass the 700k mark.

The UK reported 193,431 cases and 578 deaths over 4 days for a CMR of 0.776%.

28,789 new cases in the USA yesterday and 448 deaths sees CMR at 1.232%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 493M;
Europe passes 181M cases;

No countries
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Lithuania, Chile and Malaysia drop below.

[T3rminator]

A couple of colleagues in the UK have recently caught and recovered from the covid variant that is going around there at the moment. They also previously caught it when omnicron was going around. Whatever is circulating there at the moment, its worse than omnicron apparently. It really knocked the crap out of them, and its far from "just a flu". Omnicron was pretty mild in comparison. Hmmmmm

Having said that, boss from a small down in Scotland mentioned that there was a local 90+ year old lady with terminal cancer who recently recovered from covid. So there ya go.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

A couple of colleagues in the UK have recently caught and recovered from the covid variant that is going around there at the moment. They also previously caught it when omnicron was going around. Whatever is circulating there at the moment, its worse than omnicron apparently. It really knocked the crap out of them, and its far from "just a flu". Omnicron was pretty mild in comparison. Hmmmmm

I had a cold 2 weeks ago (still coughing now). It knocked me around. It doesnt mean colds are bad, it just means with all the social distancing of the last 2 years, our immune systems aren't ready for anything cold/flu-like. I'm not aware of any new covid sub-variants being any worse in terms of serious illness/death than omicron at this stage.

My daughter had covid last week. Somehow, my wife and I both avoided it. I'll put it down to the boosters we had a few weeks back. I hope they start changing boosters to match what's going around. It would make a hell of a difference to transmission.

[ford71V8]

Wife has just been confirmed Positive.
Aged care, visiting multiple homes and then trekking around various shops, docs, pharmacies, etc. I'm surprised its not been earlier.

F1, V8s, Indycar and a beer fridge bursting at the seams - I'll be OK. Still don't want the CV19 though.


Son tested Positive yesterday.
Daughter has plane and F1 tickets.
They live together so she didn't return home and is booked in for a PCR shortly.
She is stlil considering not going even if testing Negative for worry that she still doing the wrong thing by going to the GP..... I've told her that a negative result is her green light to go enjoy herself.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

She is stlil considering not going even if testing Negative for worry that she still doing the wrong thing by going to the GP..... I've told her that a negative result is her green light to go enjoy herself.

Agree. Make hay while the sun shines.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 22,255 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0493


VIC records 12,314 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0408 (from 1.0565) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



SA (%,784) set a new daily record on 6/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is well above the predictive trend line.

[ford71V8]

Youngest son just tested positive.
He is 16 and just had his booster so I was thinking his slight symptoms may have been from that but looks like I am the only one in the household covid-free.
Im not liking my odds (and also having trouble making the sick people food, bit lost in the kitchen)

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 6th 2022.

62,046 new cases for Australia and 26 deaths so the CMR is 0.133%.

NZ recorded 12,635 cases and 18 deaths for a CMR of 0.055%.

The UK reported 51,251 cases and 233 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.788% after an adjustment which added 2,714 deaths.

38,912 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,004 deaths sees CMR at 1.233%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 495M;
Europe passes 182M cases;
Asia passes 142M cases;
Germany passes 22M cases;
Italy passes 15M cases;


Bhutan (2,291);
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Slovakia drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 20,396 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0083 from 1.0493 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend. NSW also passes 2M cases.


VIC records 11,192 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0068 (from 1.0408) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



SA (6,091) set a new daily record on 7/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is well above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 7th 2022.

64,000 new cases for Australia and 33 deaths so the CMR is 0.132%.

NZ recorded 11,702 cases and 22 deaths for a CMR of 0.057%.

The UK reported 46,990 cases and 317 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

42,175 new cases in the USA yesterday and 798 deaths sees CMR at 1.233%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 496M;

Taiwan (531);
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[HIPO]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d4_wzvzTP4&t=586s

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 17,597 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9789 from 1.0083 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.


VIC records 9,610 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9850 (from 1.0068) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 8/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is well above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 8th 2022.

59,029 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.131%.

NZ recorded 9,987 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.058%.

The UK reported 41,284 cases and 347 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

38,485 new cases in the USA yesterday and 500 deaths sees CMR at 1.233%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 497M;
Europe passes 183M cases;
North America passes 97M cases;
USA passes 82M cases;
Oceania passes 6M cases;

No countries ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Mexico moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while the Netherlands, Latvia and Slovenia drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 15,963 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9786 from 0.9789 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.


VIC records 9,510 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9879 (from 0.09850) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 9/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is well above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 9th 2022.

48,416 new cases for Australia and 24 deaths so the CMR is 0.130%.

NZ recorded 8,566 cases and 10 deaths for a CMR of 0.059%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

43,566 new cases in the USA yesterday and 789 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 498M;
Global deaths pass 6.2M, the last 50k in 12 days;
Asia passes 143M cases;
South Korea passes 15M cases;
Australia passes 5M cases;
South Africa passes 100k deaths;

Only Taiwan (578) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.244% compared to 1.281% in the previous period and 2.257% a year ago today.

Case numbers have decreased significantly with 17.42M in this period compared to 26.472M in the previous period with 55,268 deaths in the last 14 days for a lower CMR of 0.317% on an unadjusted basis.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 3.5% but the variance in the number of deaths only 0.89% so that's a good sign.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 10% growth rate are headed by South Korea (+24.2%); New Zealand (+22.8%); Australia (+15.7%);Laos (+14.4%); Botswana (+13.6%); China (+12.9%); Vietnam (+12.3%); Cyprus (+11.1%) and Germany (+10.9%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with New Zealand (+51.2%), South Korea (+23.4%); Hong Kong (+18.4%); Finland (+10.5%) and Australia (+10.2%) having double digit growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

While most countries have a whole or pandemic CMR well below 1%, there are some not doing as well amongst countries with >100k of population like these whicha re all over 2% still:

Armenia (2.040%); Russia (2.066%); Guatemala (2.080%); Ukraine (2.170%); Brazil (2.190%); Uganda (2.193%); Zimbabwe (2.210%); Cambodia (2.248%); Jamaica (2.250%); Romania (2.270%); Colombia (2.295%); Hungary (2.448%); Bolivia (2.452%); Sri Lanka (2.489%); Algeria (2.500%); El Salvador (2.545%); Namibia (2.547%); Indonesia (2.580%); Honduras (2.585%); Trinidad (2.696%); Tunisia (2.740%); China (2.845%); Paraguay (2.889%); North Macedonia (3.005%); Bulgaria (3.200%); Myanmar (3.174%); Ecuador (4.107%); Bosnia (4.180%); Afghanistan (4.300%); Egypt (4.806%); Mexico (5.657%) and Peru (5.983%).

Some of those haven't yet had an Omicron wave as that boosts case numbers with a very low CMR (which helps the average) while others have simply under-reported cases however, some (like Russia) are undoubtedly much worse than reported.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,768 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9492 from 0.9786 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,597 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9965 (from 0.09879) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 10/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 10th 2022.

34,023 new cases for Australia and 19 deaths so the CMR is 0.130%.

NZ recorded 6,755 cases and 12 deaths for a CMR of 0.060%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

15,572 new cases in the USA yesterday and 155 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases drop below the 90th percentile over the 10-day period;
Both Asia and Europe drop below the 90th percentile over the 10-day period;

No countries ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

While weekend case numbers are now regularly below 1M cases a day, we still haven't reached that mark for weekday reporting and the 7-day average is still just over 1M/day although that may change next week.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 15,334 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9831 from 0.9492 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,293 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0160 (from 0.9965) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 11/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 11th 2022.


534,418 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 0.129%.

NZ recorded 7,633 cases and 12 deaths for a CMR of 0.061%.

The UK recorded 91,174 cases and 348 deaths over the weekend for a CMR of 0.786%.

26,696 new cases in the USA yesterday and 181 deaths sees CMR at 1.233%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 499M;
Russia passes 18M cases;
Israel passes 8M cases;
Japan passes 7M cases;

No countries ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 1,271,080 (+58%) cases in the period to 27/3 and a much higher 5,509 deaths between 28/3-8/4 for a CMR of 0.433% which is a lot higher than that of the previous period (0.226%) and higher than it has been for some month.

Thus, in the 255 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 15,396,120 cases and 40,524 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.263% which is above the 0.248% at day 240.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.



On an annualised basis, that’s almost 25M cases and about 65.4k deaths (at the average CMR) in the year.

[Polyal]

Well its done the rounds with us. So far then order;

1. Son #1 got it from somewhere, knocked him around for a couple of days, lethargic etc
2. Wife and I both positive, had the sweats for a couple of nights in a row, tired and small cough but OK after 3-4 days
3. Son #2 got it, same issues as #1
4. Daughter #1 gets it, actually woke up looking average but 3 days after positive test and she is about right

So I have one more child to go and then thats all of us. Interestingly we live in close proximity with some inlaws and they are yet to catch it.

Wife, #1 son and myself have all had 2 shots but no booster.

Grandparents have had 2 shots and booster.

We made no attempt to really separate and it seemed to step through us and not the instantaneous spread like MSM seem to portray.....could be just dumb luck though.

Felt like a bad cold but appreciate everyone is different. I had influenza B a couple of years ago with a trace of legionnaires and that got me for a week, this wasnt that bad but I am vaxxed for this and I have never taken a flu shot.

[ford71V8]

I'm siding with dumb luck.
Every family member are positive and I'm still testing negative.
All had the 2+booster, my sons only just before contracting.
Not sure why the "booster" isn't just called Jab #3. Its the same thing administered in the same dosage.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 18,625 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0198 from 0.9831 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,907 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0235 (from 1.0160) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



No states set a new daily record on 12/4.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 71,150 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 1,028 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 15,544 less, Queensland 7,406 less and WA 10,152 less. The week totalled 369,104 cases or 7.9% less than last week.