Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 12th 2022.

45,563 new cases for Australia and 40 deaths so the CMR is 0.128%.

NZ recorded 11,130 cases and 14 deaths for a CMR of 0.061%.

The UK recorded 38,276 cases and 288 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.786%.

24,410 new cases in the USA yesterday and 227 deaths sees CMR at 1.233%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 500M;
Asia passes 144M cases;
Netherlands passes 8M cases;
Austria passes 4M cases;

Taiwan (663) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Belgium and Ireland drop below.

[five 7]

Pretty much deathly quite on Shanghais zero Covid policy, people locked in tower blocks no food screaming and berating the CCP, cats in bags on the sidewalk waiting for collection to be killed the corgi being clubbed to death with a spade, so can't wait for a social credit System of our own. "crickets" in our media.

[Citroënbender]

The dog being snotted was a real low point. It says a lot about how people are thinking.

Growing contrast between Chinese Covid policy and “rest of the world” (give or take some nations) might be a marker of the decline in popular support of the Chinese government by its people.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 18,856 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0249 from 1.0198 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 10,462 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0082 (from 1.0235) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



SA passes 300k cases.

Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 13th 2022.

53,825 new cases for Australia and 39 deaths so the CMR is 0.128%.

NZ recorded 9,548 cases and 14 deaths for a CMR of 0.062%.

The UK recorded 35,836 cases and 650 deaths (after an adjustment of +604) yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

50,944 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,224 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 501M;
Germany passes 23M cases;

Taiwan (933) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Austria drops below.

[five 7]

Hey Russel please don't take this as a attack on you or your efforts with these figures and graphs I do appreciate your efforts, i'm picking they are based on Who guidelines, But is there any chance we can get actual Covid death figures included as well. I have known New Zealands all along, Ryan Bridges (am morning show there in NZ) managed to get Chris Hipkins our health minister to cough up the real figure on national Tv which is 51, it was a bit like pulling teeth on the poor thing he looked pretty uncomfortable. The 500 odd they have no problem advertising is just fear mongering propaganda most people are sheep and just believe what they are fed by govt, included in ours is a guy shot to death in New Lynn, our Govt is taking us for fools to meet there agenda. I might add NZ Govt infection numbers are skewed as well, out of the twenty odd family and friends that have had Covid not one has logged it with the Govt and if that twenty have't how many more are like them, no one knows.
Thanks Mark.

[russellw]

The only figures I have access to are the ones released by the Government (as for all countries) and they recently amended them upward top align with the WHO guidelines.

For consistency, I'm going to use those published figures otherwise it would all be guesswork based on whichever theory you want to follow.

There's a big difference between 51 and 497 but the WHO guidelines are at least a consistent guide for comparative purposes.

[CJR09]

Originally Posted by five 7

I might add NZ Govt infection numbers are skewed as well, out of the twenty odd family and friends that have had Covid not one has logged it with the Govt and if that twenty have't how many more are like them, no one knows.
Thanks Mark.

If NZ is in line with international anecdotal evidence (which in all likelihood it is) the true figure is some 6-7 times the reported figure - and yes there are alot of deaths reported 'with' covid rather than solely because of covid

[five 7]

Originally Posted by russellw

The only figures I have access to are the ones released by the Government (as for all countries) and they recently amended them upward top align with the WHO guidelines.

For consistency, I'm going to use those published figures otherwise it would all be guesswork based on whichever theory you want to follow.

There's a big difference between 51 and 497 but the WHO guidelines are at least a consistent guide for comparative purposes.

The 51 is actual deaths caused by Covid the rest are with covid as admitted by Chris Hipkins on National tv the rest are smoke and mirrors. with all due respect there's a big difference between dying with and from Covid some were only diagnosed at Autopsy when they died from other causes.

[MITCHAY]

My brother tested positive last Saturday with a RAT. As of Tuesday my mum was still fine so hopefully out of iso for the weekend.

At least she is vaccinated with booster where he has not had any. Hard to tell how bad it is because lookup the definition of man flu and there will be a picture of him

The experience varies considerably going by what others have told me.

[five 7]

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-...e-demographics

Scroll down to age and ethnicity of deaths where covid 19 officially coded as the underlying cause....

[ford71V8]

My gut feeling is Aussie numbers will shoot up next week....nobody wants to get tested and trapped at home during Easter weekend

[Citroënbender]

Maybe, it surely depends on the number of more recent undiagnosed infections/recoveries too? As they seem to at least provide short term resistance to reinfection.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 14th 2022.

53,332 new cases for Australia and 45 deaths so the CMR is 0.127%.

NZ recorded 9,634 cases and 17 deaths for a CMR of 0.064%.

The UK recorded 32,522 cases and 351 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

55,237 new cases in the USA yesterday and 758 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 501M;

Taiwan (982) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while none drop below.

There will be no Australian data today.

[russellw]

I was wrong - there is AU data today!

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 13,567 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9777 from 1.0249 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,664 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9807 (from 1.0082) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line. Total cases pass the 800k mark and deaths surpass 500.

[MITCHAY]

Well my brother getting back to his usual self and mum all good.

I thought for sure she would catch it considering it's a one bathroom and toilet house but to his credit he wore a mask when moving about which was surprising since he is usually such a selfish ****

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 15th 2022.

47,956 new cases for Australia and 34 deaths so the CMR is 0.127%.

NZ recorded 7,830 cases and 20 deaths for a CMR of 0.066%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

55,656 new cases in the USA yesterday and 444 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points: (holiday reporting)
Global cases pass 502M;
Europe passes 186M cases;
Asia passes 145M cases;
South Korea passes 16M cases;

Taiwan (1,284) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Belgium moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Greece and Israel drop below.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Well my brother getting back to his usual self and mum all good.

I thought for sure she would catch it considering it's a one bathroom and toilet house but to his credit he wore a mask when moving about which was surprising since he is usually such a selfish ****

I don't think the mask had any bearing on the outcome.

Using a mask to contain a virus is like building barb wire fence around a paddock to keep the mice out. Masks were mainly made for bacteria and to limit bacterial infections.

Bacteria vs Virus size wise is akin to elephant vs mouse.

That's why virologists wear full body hazmat suits when working with viruses.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

I don't think the mask had any bearing on the outcome.

Using a mask to contain a virus is like building barb wire fence around a paddock to keep the mice out. Masks were mainly made for bacteria and to limit bacterial infections.

Bacteria vs Virus size wise is akin to elephant vs mouse.

That's why virologists wear full body hazmat suits when working with viruses.

Can you please tell the authorities wearing a mask is useless as I'm sick of our governments forcing us to wear them.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by russellw

The only figures I have access to are the ones released by the Government (as for all countries) and they recently amended them upward top align with the WHO guidelines.

For consistency, I'm going to use those published figures otherwise it would all be guesswork based on whichever theory you want to follow.

There's a big difference between 51 and 497 but the WHO guidelines are at least a consistent guide for comparative purposes.

But it is guess work using WHO guidelines, flawed data just makes useless numbers, how can that be a accurate representation of Covid 19 deaths and infection. Here is New Zealands actual real time death rate as of 14th of April 2022 sourced from here.

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-...ata-and-statis tics/covid-19-case-demographics

People are not dropping like ninepins as the WHO might like us to believe.

[five 7]

Here's another one to ponder. not sure I'd be gagging for a fourth shot.

[five 7]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Can you please tell the authorities wearing a mask is useless as I'm sick of our governments forcing us to wear them.

This is why I miss Leesa. There needs to be someone to push the dissenting rabble back in line.........🙂

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
We didn’t report yesterday so this is for the two days.
NSW records 13,601 and 9,725 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9777 from 0.9777 and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,559 and 8,153 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9314 (from 0.9807) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.




Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is still above the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by five 7

But it is guess work using WHO guidelines, flawed data just makes useless numbers, how can that be a accurate representation of Covid 19 deaths and infection. Here is New Zealands actual real time death rate as of 14th of April 2022 sourced from here.

People are not dropping like ninepins as the WHO might like us to believe.

You can argue all you like but the WHO guidelines are a consistent data model for everyone so if NZ wants to go off and count it's own way that's fine but I'll stick with the consistent data set.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 16th 2022.

43,190 new cases for Australia and 35 deaths so the CMR is 0.126%.

NZ recorded 5,812 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.066%.

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.788%.

40,038 new cases in the USA yesterday and 376 deaths sees CMR at 1.234%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 504M;
Thailand passes 4M cases;

Taiwan (1,351) ...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below

[five 7]

Originally Posted by russellw

You can argue all you like but the WHO guidelines are a consistent data model for everyone so if NZ wants to go off and count it's own way that's fine but I'll stick with the consistent data set.

I presented facts not padded figures...guess we can agree to disagree.

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by five 7

Here's another one to ponder. not sure I'd be gagging for a fourth shot.image

Unless I've missed something here, you've just shown how important vaccination is.

The number of people double vaccinated vs those not (according to your chart), is around 19:1 (95% vs 5%). You've got both both groups with similar numbers of deaths.

To me that means you are 19 times as likely to die from Covid if you are not vaccinated.

I think a "4th shot" sounds like a very good idea. You are free to chose of course, it's not compulsory.

Dr Terry

[five 7]

Take the unvaccinated out of the equation, it's the upward trend of deaths from vaccinated to vaccinated and boosted. Would you not expect it to be similar not a third to nearly half more in some age groups add in the boosted group is less than Vaxxed un boosted in numbers.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by five 7

Here's another one to ponder. not sure I'd be gagging for a fourth shot.image

Whats the population of fully vaxed vs boosted in NZ? If its anything like here, then there is a smaller population of boosted compared to double vaxed. Which makes those stats interesting i.e. the elderly are dying in greater numbers boosted, even though they make up a smaller population than double vaxed? Am I reading that right?

[five 7]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Whats the population of fully vaxed vs boosted in NZ? If its anything like here, then there is a smaller population of boosted compared to double vaxed. Which makes those stats interesting i.e. the elderly are dying in greater numbers boosted, even though they make up a smaller population than double vaxed? Am I reading that right?

That's how I read it. figures I found was 80% full Vax and 52% boosted NZ Govt says 96% full vax no boost, but in there figures they include people booked for it as well. getting late here so will look more tomorrow.
New Zealand is a good litmus test because we had no Covid so to speak before vax program and large uptake from the population in a short time frame, no one can say there was prior infection which could play a part in any issues that may arise.