Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by zilo

Piece of cake with three vaccinations...3 days to go and centrelink are giving me $750 for my troubles...LOL

Thought that $750 payment was a Victorian thing?

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 12,020 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0576 (1.0872) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 13,181 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0325 (1.0661) while the actual line is above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[Itsme]

Had my 4th jab yesterday with no side affects.
cheers

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 13th 2022.

52,105 new cases for Australia and 53 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ recorded 7,528 cases and 29 deaths for a CMR of 0.087% (é).

The UK reported 190 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.797% (-).

123,489 new cases in the USA yesterday and 416 deaths sees CMR at 1.221% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 520M;
Europe passes 194M cases;

No countries

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Italy drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,954 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0250 (1.0576) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 12,610 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0223 (1.0325) while the actual line is just above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. WA passes 500k cases this year while SA passes 400k.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 14th 2022.

50,744 new cases for Australia and 48 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ recorded 7,122 cases and 17 deaths for a CMR of 0.088% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.797% (-).

98,502 new cases in the USA yesterday and 329 deaths sees CMR at 1.219% (ê).

Other notable points (weekend reporting):
Italy passes 17M cases;

No countries

...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Germany drops below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 15th 2022.

41,722 new cases for Australia and 25 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (ê).

NZ recorded 5,828 cases and 14 deaths for a CMR of 0.088% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.797% (-).

29,587 new cases in the USA yesterday and 84 deaths sees CMR at 1.219% (-).

Other notable points (weekend reporting):
Global cases pass 521M;
Asia passes 150M cases;

Taiwan (68,769)
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by zilo

4 days later positive...just going from residence in Grovedale to Geelong Hospital 6 times.

Gotta love Victoria...the gift that keeps giving.

Dad and I were in Vic from the 23/4 to 8/5 and interacted with hundreds of people. Friends, family, randoms, kisses, hugs, handshakes... We didn't catch Covid, but all got a chest infection. Or at least we are pretty sure that's what we got.

Mine is mostly cleared now, just a cough getting rid of crap in my chest.

But Dad's very closely mirrored covid. He has no congestion in his chest, just a wheeze and random times where he can't breathe. Walking from the Brisbane to Hervey Bay flight Dad said he couldn't breathe at all and went white as a sheet.

We were sure we caught covid, but many RAT tests and 2 PCR tests say otherwise.

Even my sister who was with us went home to Perth with covid symptoms so bad she thought she had it and dragged herself for a PCR test on return. It came back negative.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by zilo

Came to Vic to see my sister that has cancer.

4 days later positive...just going from residence in Grovedale to Geelong Hospital 6 times.

Gotta love Victoria...the gift that keeps giving.

However must report this is nothing to worry about so far, a headache,slight cough..night sweat on 2nd day...

Piece of cake with three vaccinations...3 days to go and centrelink are giving me $750 for my troubles...LOL

Originally Posted by arm79

Dad and I were in Vic from the 23/4 to 8/5 and interacted with hundreds of people. Friends, family, randoms, kisses, hugs, handshakes... We didn't catch Covid, but all got a chest infection. Or at least we are pretty sure that's what we got.

Mine is mostly cleared now, just a cough getting rid of crap in my chest.

But Dad's very closely mirrored covid. He has no congestion in his chest, just a wheeze and random times where he can't breathe. Walking from the Brisbane to Hervey Bay flight Dad said he couldn't breathe at all and went white as a sheet.

We were sure we caught covid, but many RAT tests and 2 PCR tests say otherwise.

Even my sister who was with us went home to Perth with covid symptoms so bad she thought she had it and dragged herself for a PCR test on return. It came back negative.

As a Victorian I actively socialise with many friends and people, also through my employment (Logistics) I come in contact with numerous people on a daily basis and yet not once I have suffered covid or flu symptoms in the last three years but have been forced to take RATS & PCR tests with negative results; guess I have been extremely lucky so far.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,286 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9847 (0.9523) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 11,464 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0191 (0.9956) while the actual line is level with the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Some more interesting data published this week.

An Australian review of patients presenting to emergency departments after having COVID vaccines:

During the study period (22 Feb 2021 to 21June 2021) 632 patients were identified of which 543 (85.9%) had received the AstraZeneca vaccination. Patients who had an ED presentation related to AstraZeneca had a longer median length of stay (253 vs 180 minutes) compared to Pfizer and a higher proportion had haematology tests and imaging requested in the ED. Most patients (588 - 88.8%) were discharged home from the ED.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,972 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0110 (0.9847) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 13,694 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0477 (1.0191) while the actual line is above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

Some more interesting data published this week.

An Australian review of patients presenting to emergency departments after having COVID vaccines:

During the study period (22 Feb 2021 to 21June 2021) 632 patients were identified of which 543 (85.9%) had received the AstraZeneca vaccination. Patients who had an ED presentation related to AstraZeneca had a longer median length of stay (253 vs 180 minutes) compared to Pfizer and a higher proportion had haematology tests and imaging requested in the ED. Most patients (588 - 88.8%) were discharged home from the ED.

Wouldn’t the average age of the AZ recipients have been significantly older? Not sure what they can draw from that comparison??

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 16th 2022.

42,045 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ recorded 7,114 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.088% (-).

The UK reported 44,394 cases and 702 deaths over 3 days for a CMR of 0.799% (é).

76,708 new cases in the USA yesterday and 125 deaths sees CMR at 1.218% (ê).

Other notable points (weekend reporting):
Global cases pass 522M;
North Korea has been included in the reporting adding 1.2M cases and 50 deaths;
Asia passes 151M cases;

North Korea (392,930)
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 12,297 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0469 (1.0110) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 14,220 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0582 (1.0477) while the actual line is above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 6,597 more cases then Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 15,910 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 4,006 less, Queensland 5,691 less; WA 32,703 more and SA 5,270 more. The week totalled 356,384 cases or 14.4% more than last week and that’s the highest it’s been for four weeks.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 17th 2022.

67,455 new cases for Australia and 65 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (ê).

NZ recorded 9,913 cases and 8 deaths for a CMR of 0.088% (-).

The UK reported 3,303 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

111,898 new cases in the USA yesterday and 207 deaths sees CMR at 1.217% (ê).

Other notable points (weekend reporting):
Global cases pass 523M;
Asia moves above the 90th percentile over the 10-day period;
Oceania passes 8M cases;

No countries
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and South Korea drops below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 18th 2022.

56,259 new cases for Australia and 54 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 10,253 cases and 30 deaths for a CMR of 0.090% (é).

The UK reported 3,303 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

159,835 new cases in the USA yesterday and 659 deaths sees CMR at 1.215% (ê).

Other notable points (weekend reporting):
Global cases pass 524M;
North America passes 100M cases;
Asia passes 152M cases;

Taiwan (85,356)
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[ford71V8]

Taiwan getting caned last few weeks

[russellw]

Yes they have. It took them more than a year from their first case to pass 1,000 cases (19/3/2021) and then they had a small wave between mid May and early July 2021 that saw them go from 1,200 to 15,000 cases but it then settled down again to well below 100 cases / day.

It started to ramp up in the first half of April which averaged 544 cases / day but the 2nd half of April was more than 10x that at 5,634 / day average and thus far in May the average is 50,452 cases a day!

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,084 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0079 (1.0484) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 12,556 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0046 (1.0363) while the actual line is still just above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 19th 2022.

54,079 new cases for Australia and 51 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 8,594 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.090% (-).

The UK reported 25,225 cases and 480 deaths for a CMR of 0.800% (é).

152,997 new cases in the USA yesterday and 499 deaths sees CMR at 1.214% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 525M;
Europe passes 195M cases;
Germany passes 26M cases;

Taiwan (90,378)
...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by russellw

Some more interesting data published this week.

An Australian review of patients presenting to emergency departments after having COVID vaccines:

During the study period (22 Feb 2021 to 21June 2021) 632 patients were identified of which 543 (85.9%) had received the AstraZeneca vaccination. Patients who had an ED presentation related to AstraZeneca had a longer median length of stay (253 vs 180 minutes) compared to Pfizer and a higher proportion had haematology tests and imaging requested in the ED. Most patients (588 - 88.8%) were discharged home from the ED.

Originally Posted by tweeked

Wouldn’t the average age of the AZ recipients have been significantly older? Not sure what they can draw from that comparison??

This is what I was thinking. AZ in Australia was typically reserved for a) the elderly and b) when Pfizer was low/out of stock. So it makes sense that the AZ group would be made up of an older group.

And that seems to be what the study says too: Mean age of AZ group is 59, mean of Pfizer group is 41. The study acknowledges that the age difference was expected, however.

"This age-related difference in ED attendances between the two vaccination groups was not unexpected, as at the time of the study, government policy encouraged ChAdOx1 [AstraZeneca] COVID19 vaccination usage among older patients."

Interestingly, when adjusted for age, the length of stay discrepancy between the two vaccine types remained. Though the discrepancy disappeared when accounting for the various investigations performed.

"This difference in ED LOS between ChAdOx1 [AZ] and Comirnaty [Pfizer] COVID-19 vaccine recipients remained when data was adjusted for age, but disappeared when the data was adjusted for whether or not investigations had been performed."

That seems to imply that the length of stay may have been related to ED staff being particularly cautious of the AZ vaccine's known side effects, rather than due to actual complications from the vaccines.
Very interesting study.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...EMM-9999-0.pdf

[T3rminator]

Haven't really heard this treaty being discussed here, possibly distracted by the election, but it's causing a stir elsewhere. It's the response part that's generating a lot of noise, but so far haven't seen anything that would suggest we hand over our policies to the treaty.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-9550/

In this session, the WHA agreed to establish an Intergovernmental

Negotiating Body to draft and negotiate “a WHO convention, agreement, or

other international instrument on pandemic prevention, preparedness and

response.”

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,632 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9846 (1.0079) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 11,925 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9897 (1.0046) while the actual line is about even with the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 20th 2022.

50,194 new cases for Australia and 51 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-). Total deaths pass the 8,000 mark.

NZ recorded 7,909 cases and 17 deaths for a CMR of 0.091% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.800% (-).

118,535 new cases in the USA yesterday and 277 deaths sees CMR at 1.212% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 526M;
Asia passes 153M cases;
Taiwan passes 1M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Itsme

As a Victorian I actively socialise with many friends and people, also through my employment (Logistics) I come in contact with numerous people on a daily basis and yet not once I have suffered covid or flu symptoms in the last three years but have been forced to take RATS & PCR tests with negative results; guess I have been extremely lucky so far.

Yeah...my problem is I am hanging around a hospital all day, and it's full of sick people.

You know what they say if you want to get sick find the nearest hospital.

One shopping centre in Geelong area has had 10 thousand caes reported this year...Waurn Ponds (according to a hospital staffer).

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 21st 2022.

46,628 new cases for Australia and 48 deaths so the CMR is 0.117% (-).

NZ recorded 7,446 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.091% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.800% (-).

114,801 new cases in the USA yesterday and 417 deaths sees CMR at 1.211% (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,523 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9703 (0.9846) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,307 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9652 (0.9897) while the actual line is now below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Global

During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.195% compared to 1.214% in the previous period and 2.163% a year ago today.

Case numbers decrease again with 10.08M in this period compared to 10.57M in the previous period with 23,876 deaths in the last period for a lower CMR of 0.237% on an unadjusted basis. It should be noted that a number of countries (mostly in Africa) haven’t reported in this period.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 1.9% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.38%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 5% growth rate are headed by North Korea (+100%); Taiwan (+74.6%);New Zealand (+10.1%);Australia (+10.1%);Japan (+6.2%) and Panama (+5.0%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with North Korea (+100%); Taiwan (+32.5%); Iceland (+22.2%); New Zealand (+19.0%); Australia (+7.2%) and Finland (+5.8%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,178 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9592 (0.9703) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,971 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9696 (0.9652) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.