Covid 19 -

[Sprintey]

Thanks for the charts Russell. Haven't looked at this for ages.

[Citroënbender]

Last Tuesday we had someone over for afternoon tea. In the course of about ninety minutes there was loud, vigorous conversation across opposing seats in the living room, laughter, huddling to laugh together at silly videos, generally all the trappings of a great visit from an old friend. No masks.

The next day, they apologetically sent an urgent message to say they’d tested positive for Covid after waking up unwell. OK, I thought, it’s been nearly six months - here we go, again.

Gave it three days of isolation to brew up a viral load properly and went for a PCR Friday morning. Result - negative. This tallied with how we felt (no symptoms while our friend journalled her suffering) but it perplexed. This “beast” of a virus, which would transmit if it so much as winked at you, had failed to spread. I was almost disappointed.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Why are we still recording cases? Are we actually going to do anything about it? Would have thought we just keep an eye on ED and then if its getting bad then start to look at it again but even then short of lockdowns (good luck) what can you do?

I have started to wonder about this, I think other countries (looks at UK numbers) are giving up on that. Australia is having the 5th most cases in the world at the moment, close to 10% of global cases with 0.4% of the population. I don't believe that one bit.

Comparisons between countries are becoming meaningless.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,385 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0005 (0.9449) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



VIC records 9,181 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0129 (0.9683) while the actual line is above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that the first 60 days have been removed from the graph so that the scale is easier to read.




There is no update for NZ today.

[russellw]

A lot of African countries have stopped reporting altogether while a lot of Asian / South American countries are now reporting weekly but others are still reporting as normal.

Here is the current list of countries not reporting (some of which probably have no data to report anyway):

Angola, Belarus, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, CAR, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Greenland, Guadeloupe, Guinea, Jordan, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Mayotte, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Niger, Oman, Saint Pierre Miquelon, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Wallis & Futuna and Western Sahara.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 6th 2022.

17,417 new cases for Australia and 20 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.099% (-).

The UK reported 38,417 cases and 207 cases over 5 days for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

79,686 new cases in the USA yesterday and 146 deaths sees CMR at 1.194% (ê).

Other notable points:
South America passes 58M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Ecuador moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

It shouldn't come as any surprise but new research in Australia has identified that:

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australian data suggested a reduction of between 25 and 37% in patients attending Australian ED for non–COVID-19-related conditions. This mirrored international findings related to both the COVID-19 pandemic and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2003) epidemic. The reasons for this reduction are unclear; however, in addition to potential changes in illness and injury patterns, it is possible that behavioural changes related to government-mandated restrictions on socialisation, concerns about unnecessary exposure to potentially infectious patients, fears of overburdening hospitals and changes in patterns of healthcare consumption may have also contributed.

A review of vaccine effectiveness based on number of doses and type reported:
The first round of the analysis comprised 53 studies. 24 combinations of Covid-19 vaccine regimens were identified, of which a three dose mRNA regimen was found to be the most effective against asymptomatic and symptomatic covid-19 infections (vaccine effectiveness 96%).

Heterologous boosting using two dose adenovirus vector vaccines with one mRNA vaccine has a satisfactory vaccine effectiveness of 88%.

A homologous two dose mRNA regimen has a vaccine effectiveness of 99% in the prevention of severe covid-19 infections.

Three dose mRNA is the most effective in reducing covid-19 related hospital admission (95%).

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,825 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0363 (1.0005) and the actual line remains above the predictive trend.
The chart (like all the ones below except NZ) has been reduced to only cover the period from 1st February 2022 so that the scale is more relevant. This removes the first two months of the Omicron outbreak.



VIC records 9,519 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0322 (1.0129) while the actual line is above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having (again) 14,937 less cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 8,824 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 9,857 less, Queensland 5,065 less; WA 18,732 less and SA 2,758 less. The week totalled 208,619 cases or 18.3% less than last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 7th 2022.

31,201 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ reported 10,378 cases and 15 deaths (over 2 days) for a CMR of 0.099% (-) and passes 1.2M cases in total.

The UK reported 10,179 cases and 132 cases yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

75,970 new cases in the USA yesterday and 182 deaths sees CMR at 1.193% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 536M;
Europe passes 197M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 8th 2022.

33,208 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ reported 7,135 cases and 22 deaths for a CMR of 0.0100% (é).

The UK reported 13,884 cases and 85 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

208,365 new cases in the USA yesterday and 814 deaths sees CMR at 1.191% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 537M;
Oceania passes 9M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,201 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0516 (1.0363) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,903 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0133 (1.0322) while the actual line is just below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Victoria also passes 2,000 deaths this year while the ACT and NT both pass 50.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,551 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0183 (1.0516) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,021 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9877 (1.0133) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Statistically, 86.9% of all Australian cases have been in the under 60’s age group and 62% of all cases have been under 40.Conversely, the under 60’s only represent 7.0% of COVID deaths while 83.54% of COVID deaths have been over 70.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

I wonder how many of these reported cases are false positives?

My daughter was exposed two weeks ago today to a friend who then tested positive the following morning. My daughter developed covid symptoms on the Sunday. Did a series of negative rats through until Wednesday, when she returned a very faint positive result. Not sure why, but she did a further two tests using different brand rat kits with the same, very faint, result. Because she has tested positive with a very faint rat result previously which we followed up with a negative pcr test, we decided to o the same this time. At the appointment, the nurse advised that there was no need to do a pcr as the positive rat is sufficient, explaining our previous experience, she did the pcr. No surprise to us, it returned a negative result.

My daughter had the classic covid symptoms: cough, runny nose, sore throat, loss of taste and smell and lethargy. At one point I thought we'd have to take her to the hospital as she was having difficulty breathing. She was out of action for at least 4 days.

I assume she had the flu that seems to be going around at the moment. I wonder how many others are rat testing, getting a positive result, recording it as such, but are not actually positive? Or is my daughter a freak? (Chip off the old block if she is )

[Citroënbender]

I believe a lot of that (symptoms) to be psychosomatic, we all saw it the first time around pre-vaccine in 2020. Panic then jumps on top. People underestimate how convincing an imagined condition can become. As a flying enthusiast with an eye to history, you’d probably remember the mass hysterical illnesses that grounded a few flights in the early seventies.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 9th 2022.

33,772 new cases for Australia and 59 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ reported 8,178 cases and 24 deaths for a CMR of 0.0101% (é).

The UK reported 10,079 cases and 82 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

159,197 new cases in the USA yesterday and 380 deaths sees CMR at 1.189% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 538M;
Europe passes 198M cases;
The USA passes 87M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,254 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9869 (1.0183) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 6,224 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9617 (09877) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.





New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 10th 2022.

30,010 new cases for Australia and 38 deaths so the CMR is 0.118% (-).

NZ reported 6,463 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.0102% (é).

The UK reported 9,206 cases and 52 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

122,663 new cases in the USA yesterday and 343 deaths sees CMR at 1.188% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 539M;
North America passes 103M cases;
Asia passes 158M cases;
Japan passes 9M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[DJR-351]

[Citroënbender]

It’s quite impressive that Ukraine is still managing to return some Covid data through all the mayhem and aggression they’re suffering.

Unrelated to that, the fresh produce and meats on supermarket shelves yesterday afternoon was the most abundant I’ve seen since maybe prior to the Great TP Stash of 2020. Either supply chains are no longer being so heavily impacted by the virus or people are acting out their ideas of economic restraint by avoiding healthy foods.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 11th 2022.

23,855 new cases for Australia and 67 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (é). Total deaths pass 9,000 for the pandemic.

NZ reported 5,263 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.0102% (-).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

116,738 new cases in the USA yesterday and 318 deaths sees CMR at 1.187% (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 540M;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 127,835 (-15.0%) cases in the period to 27/5 and a lower 813 deaths between 27/5-10/6 for a CMR of 0.636% - much lower than the previous period (1.317%) and about what it has been for some months.

Thus, in the 315 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 16,791,441 cases and 49,634 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.296% which is above the 0.293% at day 300.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 5,387 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9826 (0.9869) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 4,766 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9356 (09617) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 4,600 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9703 (0.9826) and the actual line is below the predictive trend. NSW also passes 2.5M cases for 2022.



VIC records 5,079 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9482 (09356) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 12th 2022.

19,917 new cases for Australia and 23 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ reported 4,529 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.0102% (-).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.801% (-).

39,743 new cases in the USA yesterday and 74 deaths sees CMR at 1.186% (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Noned

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 5,157 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9934 (0.9703) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 6,041 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9791 (0.9482) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 13th 2022.

19,051 new cases for Australia and 11 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ reported 4,518 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.0102% (-).

The UK reported 28,231 cases and 57 deaths (over 3 days) for a CMR of 0.800% (ê).

69,120 new cases in the USA yesterday and 138 deaths sees CMR at 1.186% (-).

Other notable points:
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Ecuador drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,260 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0558 (0.9934) and the actual line is below the predictive trend.



VIC records 8,687 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0389 (0.9791) while the actual line is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. South Australia passes 500k cases in 2022.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 15,970 less cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 13,428 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 1,036 less, Queensland 1,059 less; WA 1,142 less and SA 999 less. The week totalled 190,476 cases or 8.7% less than last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 14th 2022.

26,097 new cases for Australia and 31 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ reported 6,355 cases and 19 deaths for a CMR of 0.0103% (é).

The UK reported 12,028 cases and 89 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.800% (-).

102,712 new cases in the USA yesterday and 238 deaths sees CMR at 1.185% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 541M;
Europe passes 199M cases;
Asia passes 159M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,117 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0946 (1.0558) and the actual line is almost at the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,889 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0230 (1.0389) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 15th 2022.

31,004 new cases for Australia and 57 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (-).

NZ reported 5,708 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.0103% (-).

The UK reported 25,300 cases and 48 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.799% (ê).

180,912 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,127 deaths sees CMR at 1.183% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 542M;
Germany passes 27M cases;
Portugal passes 5M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Chile, Cabo Verde and Ghana move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.