Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 16th 2022.

32,338 new cases for Australia and 72 deaths so the CMR is 0.119% (é).

NZ reported 5,881 cases and 13 deaths for a CMR of 0.0104% (-).

The UK reported 12,538 cases and 61 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

121,562 new cases in the USA yesterday and 412 deaths sees CMR at 1.182% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 543M;
France passes 30M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Portugal moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,355 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0439 (1.0946) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,608 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9979 (1.0230) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 17th 2022.

30,186 new cases for Australia and 51 deaths so the CMR is 0.120% (é). Deaths for 2022 have passed 7,000.

NZ reported 5,014 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.0104% (-).

The UK reported 12,054 cases and 69 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

107,361 new cases in the USA yesterday and 320 deaths sees CMR at 1.181% (ê).

Other notable points:
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Malta and Israel move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,119 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0185 (1.0439) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,601 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9810 (0.9979) while the actual line remains just above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,349 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9919 (1.0185) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,472 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9704 (0.9810) while the actual line remains is back below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 18th 2022.

26,865 new cases for Australia and 63 deaths so the CMR is 0.120% (-).

NZ reported 4,584 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.0104% (-).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

81,733 new cases in the USA yesterday and 200 deaths sees CMR at 1.180% (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Weekend reporting currently is short by ~130-140k cases per day

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Global 19/06/22 (figures up to 18/06/22)

During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.165% compared to 1.181% in the previous period and 2.174% a year ago today. Notably, Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and Taiwan all saw CMR rise.

Case numbers decrease with 8.943M in this period compared to 9.142M in the previous period with 20,252 deaths in the last period for a higher CMR of 0.222% on an unadjusted basis. It should be noted that a number of countries (mostly in Africa) haven’t reported in this period.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 1.6% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.32%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 5% growth rate are headed by Taiwan (+27.8%); Portugal (+18.8%); North Korea (+13.1%); Martinique (+8.6%) andNew Zealand (+6.2%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Taiwan (+44.2%); New Zealand (+11.5%) and Australia (+6.5%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,076 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9955 (0.9919) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,661 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9837 (0.9704) while the actual line remains is just below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 19th 2022.

22,123 new cases for Australia and 42 deaths so the CMR is 0.120% (-).

NZ reported 3,350 cases and 5 deaths for a CMR of 0.0104% (-).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.799% (-).

17,326 new cases in the USA yesterday and 28 deaths sees CMR at 1.180% (-).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 544M;
Europe passes 200M cases;
The USA passes 88M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Bahrain move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[Citroënbender]

Unsurprising, really:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/au...3-0746d5009aef

This highlights a problem with many medical pre-appointment forms where they ask if you’ve tested positive to coronavirus. Perhaps a better question is “Do you believe you’ve had coronavirus in the last (insert time period)?”

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,805 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0412 (0.9955) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,507 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0387 (0.9837) while the actual line remains is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 20th 2022.

20,214 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 0.120% (-).

NZ reported 4,179 cases and 8 deaths for a CMR of 0.0105% (é).

The UK reported 36,425 cases and 64 deaths (over 3 days) for a CMR of 0.798% (ê).

45,173 new cases in the USA yesterday and 61 deaths sees CMR at 1.180% (-).

Other notable points:
None

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 21st 2022.

31,562 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths so the CMR is 0.120% (-).

NZ reported 5,876 cases and 13 deaths for a CMR of 0.0105% (-).

The UK reported 16,430 cases and 105 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.798% (-).

82,947 new cases in the USA yesterday and 268 deaths sees CMR at 1.179% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 545M;
Asia passes 160M cases;
North America passes 104M cases;
Denmark passes 3M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

France, Italy and Germany move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,472 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0764 (1.0412) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,769 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0657 (1.0387) while the actual line remains is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. SA passes 500 deaths for 2022.




New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,608 less cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 842 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 8,106 more, Queensland 3,297 more; WA 10,188 less and SA 298 less. The week totalled 195,061 cases or 2.4% more than last week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 22nd 2022.

32,971 new cases for Australia and 62 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (é).

NZ reported 5,684 cases and 18 deaths for a CMR of 0.0106% (é).

The UK reported 32,727 cases and 77 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.797% (ê).

209,229 new cases in the USA yesterday and 598 deaths sees CMR at 1.177% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 546M;
Europe passes 201M cases;
South America passes 59M cases;
Italy passes 18M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Guatemala moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,203 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0882 (1.0764) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,461 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0551 (1.6587) while the actual line remains is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 23rd 2022.

29,967 new cases for Australia and 51 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 5,529 cases and 12 deaths for a CMR of 0.0107% (é).

The UK reported 18,269 cases and 76 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.797% (-).

146,755 new cases in the USA yesterday and 750 deaths sees CMR at 1.176% (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 547M;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Panama drops below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,136 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0753 (1.0882) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,723 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0391 (1.0551) while the actual line remains is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 24th 2022.

32,677 new cases for Australia and 42 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-). Australia passes 8M cases today.

NZ didn’t report for a CMR of 0.0107% (-).

The UK reported 16,473 cases and 68 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 0.796% (ê).

132,432 new cases in the USA yesterday and 404 deaths sees CMR at 1.174 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 548M;
Brazil passes 32M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,461 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9897 (1.0250) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 5,824 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9789 (0.9819) while the actual line falls just below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 26th 2022.

28,247 new cases for Australia and 56 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 9,122 cases and 24 deaths over 2 days for a CMR of 0.0108% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.796% (-).

106,015 new cases in the USA yesterday and 350 deaths sees CMR at 1.173 (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global deaths pass 6.35M, the last 50k in 34 days;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

The current fortnight of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 109,360 (-14.5%) cases in the period to 10/6 and a lower 710 deaths between 11-25/6 for a CMR of 0.649% - a little higher than the previous period (0.636%) and about what it has been for some months.

Thus, in the 330 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 16,900,801 cases and 50,344 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.298% which is above the 0.296% at day 315.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 6,862 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9900 (0.9897) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 6,305 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 0.9907 (0.9789) while the actual line moves back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 27th 2022.

23,648 new cases for Australia and 26 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 4,608 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.0108% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.796% (-).

69,740 new cases in the USA yesterday and 72 deaths sees CMR at 1.172 (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Europe passes 202M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,623 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0185 (0.9900) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,758 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0270 (0.9907) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT June 28th 2022.

27,757 new cases for Australia and 73 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 8,331 cases and 16 deaths for a CMR of 0.0109% (é).

The UK reported 85,188 cases and 269 deaths over 4 days for a CMR of 0.795% (ê).

117,965 new cases in the USA yesterday and 167 deaths sees CMR at 1.170 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 550M;
North America passes 105M cases;
USA passes 89M cases;

No countries...recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Greece moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[zilo]

Don't think anyone is interested in this anymore Russell.
Thanks for all your efforts to date.

[T3rminator]

I'm interested to see / hear what the vaccine injury rates are, and whether gov have been honoring the compensation schemes.

Having now spoken to mate that used to work for one of these vaccine makers, there is no way I'm going for any boosters. Two is it for me.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,067 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0687 (1.0185) and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 10,777 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0830 (1.0270) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is almost level with the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,656 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 49 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 5,942 more, Queensland 2,124 more; WA 2,700 less and SA 303 more. The week totalled 203,410 cases or 4.3% more than last week.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,504 cases in the current period for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0769 (1.0687) and the actual line remains just below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 9,926 cases in the current period for a 10 day average growth of 1.0717 (1.0830) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Victoria passes 2M cases in 2022



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is almost level with the predictive trend line.